Cubs Clinch Tight Victory Over Braves at Wrigley Field
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00:00A game last night at Wrigley Field that featured an over-under pre-game of 11-and-a-half because
00:06inside the friendly confines, the winds were blowing out to Waveland Avenue. That's behind
00:12the left field bleachers inside Wrigley Field. And although the total was up there at 11-and-a-hook,
00:18the game stayed under 4-3. The Cubbies win it, even with an additional inning. As the Cubs walk
00:25it off in the home half of the 10th, an infield single, the game-winning RBI off the bat of Nico
00:31Horner as the Cubs take the opener of their midweek set against the Atlanta Braves, 4-3.
00:37You take a look at Morton, five innings pitch, two runs, only one earned. That should be good
00:41enough for a victory here with 18 mile-an-hour winds blowing out at Wrigley Field. You take a
00:45look at Assad on the other side, who's been very good this season overall, four-and-two-thirds
00:49innings pitch. He gave up three runs, only two earned. But how about this? Dancing around five
00:54free bases out here with walks. Can't have that happen. He also did give up two home runs. But
00:58here's the crux of the argument. So many times in the past, we've taken a look at the Atlanta
01:02Braves. Who cares who's on the mound? That is an electric lineup that is going to dominate on a
01:06night-to-night basis. We told you yesterday, 80-degree temperatures, wind blowing out. This
01:10should be a great night for the Braves offense. But you can't say it wasn't, Ben, for the chances.
01:15Forget about the hits. Look at runners in scoring position for the Braves yesterday.
01:19Oh, for 14. You're not going to win any baseball games if you do that. No, granted,
01:24that's a handicapper and a gambler. I take a look at myself and say, OK, if I had a team total in
01:27that game, the Braves only scored three runs. I still figured I did my job handicapping because
01:32there were 14 chances with runners on base or second base or greater with players at the plate.
01:38You can't have that here. Sooner or later, you have to convert them. And also in a game that
01:41you lost four to three. Oh, for 14 with runners in scoring position, certainly not good enough.
01:46In a game we probably expected runs, but sometimes the pitchers also can factor into that. Decent
01:51pitching performances, extra innings with that wind blowing out and only seven runs in Wrigley,
01:55that's a good win for the Cubs. The Braves by far the highest underpercentage in Major League
02:02Baseball, 65.1%, the only team that is north of 61% in Major League Baseball this year. And
02:10Atlanta got started going over in nine of their first 12 games to begin this MLB campaign.
02:16They have now been under in 12 of their previous 14. Javier Assad continues to give the Cubbies
02:23quality starts where they are booked as an underdog with Assad on the bump. It is worth
02:28a sprinkle on that Moneyline number for Chicago. The Cubs make good on that elsewhere around MLB.
02:35Late night in Los Angeles, second game of this midweek series between the Dodgers and the D-backs
02:42and Arizona evens it up with a 7-3 victory last night in L.A. The Diamondbacks, of course,
02:48the underdog against the Dodgers who have only been booked as a dog twice so far this Major
02:54League Baseball season. Arizona wins 7-3. Yeah, Brandon fought on the mound yesterday,
02:59giving you exactly what you want. You're not asking sometimes for dominant starts,
03:02Ben, against good teams. You're just asking for quality starts to give us a chance. Six innings,
03:06pitched three runs, but only two of those earned, along with seven strikeouts, lowers his ERA now
03:10down to 405. But let's take a look at that lineup, which is interesting for the Diamondbacks. For us,
03:15we've talked about this multiple times already. Corbin Carroll, one for five in that game,
03:18still only hitting 191 out of the leadoff position. Sooner or later, you're expecting
03:22him to wake up, but the one guy that has been really good in that lineup, look at that third
03:26hole batter, and that is Jock Peterson. 321 on the season, three RBI last night, which included
03:31a home run, two of five at the plate, really getting the job done. The Diamondbacks still
03:37waiting on that magic that we saw last year with that run to the World Series. A few games under
03:42500. As we say, you got to start somewhere. Maybe that's a great start knocking off the Dodgers,
03:47who have now dropped to 33-18 on the season. And L.A. made things interesting in the home
03:53half of the sixth RBI single from Shohei Otani. He leads all of Major League Baseball with his
03:59batting average of .356, leads all of MLB after going two for four yesterday with the most hits
04:05in the Major Leagues at 69. And they did make it a close game, 4-3, entering the seventh. Arizona
04:12still in front. It was that three-run shot from Jock Peterson against one of his former teams
04:17in the Dodgers that really prevailed for Arizona. Again, a plus-148 Moneyline underdog price on the
04:24Diamondbacks last night in L.A. Total of 8.5 pregame does go over. There is no better team,
04:31though, right now in all of Major League Baseball than the Philadelphia Phillies. An MLB best
04:373-5 win yesterday. Best record in the bigs. 5-2 the win for the Phillies to start off their midweek
04:44set at the bank against the Texas Rangers, the reigning World Series champs. And after earning
04:50a no decision in his first start of the year, Ranger Suarez has been lights out in the R.S.
04:56A perfect 9-0 record with a 1-3-6 ERA. That is second best in Major League Baseball. A career
05:03high 10 strikeouts yesterday for Suarez as Philadelphia wins 5-2. Pretty incredible as
05:10it's setting up, where you take a look at the top two pitchers on the Phillies, at least coming into
05:14the season, the big money guys. Zach Wheeler and Aaron Nola signed the long-term extensions, but
05:18sometimes it's a matter of who is behind those guys performing like an ace. And if you can get
05:23your three or four starters to do that, you're going to be hell on wheels throughout the summer.
05:27That's what Ranger Suarez is doing. And also, we're not talking about, hey, he's having a good start.
05:30A historic start here. Nine of his first 10 games wins. 1.36 ERA against the world champion Texas
05:37Rangers. And also keep in mind, the Phillies put up five runs yesterday and got that victory.
05:41John Gray has been tremendous this season. Five innings, pitched two earned runs yesterday with
05:45an ERA of around two. Those are key victories. And I always like to take those victory laps as
05:51a Philadelphia Phillies fan. You know, playing teams over 500, you know, came in 500 yesterday,
05:55the Rangers, and lost. You can't play teams over 500 if you're just sweeping every single team you
06:01play who's around 500. Make it make sense at this point. The Phillies are really good. Now,
06:06the test is going to be when you send a pitcher that might be not so good at the top of the
06:10rotation like Tywon Walker into the environment. If you're winning games like that, it's just meant
06:15to be at this point. The Phillies 28 at home, 35 and 14 now total. All that momentum stacking up.
06:21The Braves not playing that good right now. A six game lead in the east. And still,
06:26the Philadelphia Phillies, not even favorites in their own division.
06:30No, they are not. We'll talk about that in just a moment. But again, to highlight the historic
06:34start for Ranger Suarez, he is the first pitcher in MLB since the mid-1960s to start in his first
06:4110 outings of a year with a perfect 9-0 record and a sub-1-5 ERA. That 1-3-6 ERA, second best
06:49in Major League Baseball, only behind Shota Iminaga. We'll look at the NL Cy Young Award
06:54odds in just a moment as well. But the Rangers DRS on the opposite end of the equation from
06:59Philadelphia. The reigning World Series champs, with the defeat yesterday in Philadelphia,
07:04drop a game under .524 and .25. And how about this? Our producer Joe Frizzo is known as the
07:11stat man. He displays his research at the highest degree each and every day. His brother, brother
07:18Frizzo with this stat. This is the first time the Rangers in two seasons under Bruce Boshy
07:24have been under .500. The entire Frizzo family contributing to our research here on the early
07:30line. How about that? There we go. And also, yes, the Philadelphia Phillies putting teams under .500.
07:37Sounds familiar throughout this 2024 Major League Baseball season so far. We'll see where they go.
07:41And also keep in mind, Citizens Bank Ballpark is a very good hitters park. We're just starting to
07:46get into hitters weather here. Watch out, man. We're going to hit some lightning bolts down
07:51there and cash in some RBI props. Love to see it. Total of eight yesterday does stay under,
07:56but because of another stellar pitching performance out of Ranger Suarez. But he's
08:01not the favorite to win the NL Cy Young Award. It's his teammate, Zach Wheeler, who was even
08:06in front of Shota Iminaga at plus 484. Iminaga, he has the best ERA in Major League Baseball,
08:12sub one at this moment. And then Chris Sale, who has been great now, is the ace of the staff,
08:18presumably for Atlanta in the absence of Spencer Strider. How do you evaluate these National League
08:24Cy Young odds? Yeah, you're you're also going to get some of those extracurriculars that we
08:28always talk about, right? Give me a team in the playoffs down in the hunt, pitching in big games
08:31with big performances. That's probably what you're going to get out of Zach Wheeler at that plus
08:35330 price. Ranger Suarez. It's funny that the jury is still out like the guys doing something
08:39historic that we haven't seen in 50 to 60 years of Major League Baseball. But the trust level just
08:44isn't there yet. The same way why the Atlanta Braves are priced over the Philadelphia Phillies
08:47in the east, the trust level for the Philadelphia Phillies all throughout the summer just isn't there
08:51yet. But I'll tell you what's kind of funny. You look at the NL Cy Young Awards market, it's Wheeler,
08:55it's Iminaga, and it's Suarez up top. Makes some sense. They're National League pitchers. I look at
09:00Glasnow, Sale, and he's right behind him like, oh, did I combine somehow the American League and the
09:04National League? It just looks odd to have those three pitchers in the National League, but two
09:08of the top three right now in the odds race, Philadelphia Phillies. That tells you how good a
09:12season they're actually having. And one final point on those fighters trying to win their
09:17division up next on the early line. A walk-off yesterday in Houston will continue to go around
09:23the daily diamond dash in Major League Baseball. But you have heard Donnie and I both mention how
09:28the Phil's right now have a six-game advantage for the top spot in the National League East
09:33over the Atlanta Braves. We've referenced this point a few times, Donnie, in the last seven to
09:37eight days, the Braves struggling as of late. They've dropped five of their last six. Philadelphia,
09:43the best team in MLB, 35-14, the only team with a win percentage at .700 or better at this moment.
09:52And still the Atlanta Braves have remained an odds-on favorite. But that market is starting
09:56to move. The Braves still an odds-on favorite, minus 130, the price adds of this Wednesday
10:01morning. But I finally got in. I think it's a good bet. The Phil's even money plus 100 to win
10:07the National League East with a six-game advantage the week before Memorial Day. Now, there's a long
10:12summer ahead in Major League Baseball. We still have more than a hundred games left in this Major
10:17League Baseball season. And if I lose, I lose. But I think it's a good number based on what I have
10:23seen out of Philadelphia, despite Atlanta winning this division six consecutive seasons. And I hear
10:28what you said. The market is not fully trusting in the Phillies at this moment. Let's not forget
10:34the Phil's have played in the National League Championship Series each of the past two years.
10:38Sure, they haven't been great in the regular season for the entirety of 162 the past two seasons,
10:44but there's still a highly talented baseball team that is playing like the best in the bigs. And
10:49Trey Turner's not even there at the moment. Give me Philadelphia to win the National League East.
10:54Hey, it makes sense right now. It does, because you're also trying to look at what's going to
10:58take place in the future. And this would maybe different. It's like, okay, Strider got injured
11:02a little bit earlier. He should be back around June to sort of give you that second half kick
11:06where every fifth day you might have the best pitcher in baseball going for you. They don't
11:09have that, but it seems like every fifth day for the Phillies, a new dominant starter is on the
11:14mound. And that's how you win baseball games, particularly in the regular season. Now, granted,
11:18yes, you need dominant starters in playoff time. But how many times we see those dominant starters
11:22go five innings, they're tired, they're through 200 plus innings on the season. Now's the time
11:27where on a day to day basis, if you're constantly running out a better pitching staff than the other
11:32team you're playing, you're going to win most of your games. And that's the way I look at it. Now,
11:35I do understand Atlanta started off red hot on offense, Ben, to start the season. They've
11:40gone a little dormant. You're going to get that hitting weather down in the big A this summer.
11:44Matt Olson will come around. Ronald Acuna Jr. is going to come around. I get that. But nobody's
11:48going to come in and rescue that starting pitching staff because also, let's be honest, Chris Sale
11:52looks like he's reverted back to his Cy Young award-winning ways, like back in the early days
11:56of the Boston Red Sox and the Chicago White Sox, damn near unhittable. What happens if he turns
12:01back into the average pitcher we saw basically over the past two years? That could be devastating.
12:06The Braves are a great organization. I think the best runoff is in baseball. They will make moves,
12:10but you're not making moves enough to bring in a guy like Spencer Strider to sort of carry you
12:14into the playoffs here. I think the Phillies are the team to beat right now, and I do think
12:18it's mispriced right now in the odds market. And it's a six-game deficit. The Braves have
12:23to make their way out of. Could they? Sure. Is it still a gap behind? Absolutely so.
12:29Now we go around the rest of MLB. The Astros have not had an easy test this week against the
12:34Angels to continue their winning ways. They dropped the opener after allowing three home
12:39runs in the fifth on Monday evening in Houston. Yesterday, it took extras Kyle Tucker with his
12:45second home run of the game. His MLB leading 17th of this season forces extra innings. And then
12:52Jeremy Pena, a walk-off RBI single for Houston. The Astros win six to five. They were booked
12:58as nearly a $2 favorite. They do win outright. A total of nine does go over in H-Town.
13:05Tucker's been crazy. Pena, the young shortstop here, he's been phenomenal on the season. 328
13:10now after going two for five. In this game, I did have two RBI shots that I played. It was
13:14Rangifo and it was Calhoun. And also, it was Dinger Tuesday here on the FanDuel Sportsbook.
13:18I had the choice of Willie Calhoun and Rangifo. I went with Willie Calhoun. He didn't get an RBI
13:23yesterday or a home run. He saw Rangifo three RBIs, which included a home run. But also,
13:27we talk about handicapping and how you let it play out. A bad handicap would be the cleanup
13:32hitter going 0 for 5. But when the cleanup hitter, in a game where I expect to get a lot of runs,
13:37got two base hits, you expect maybe a home run out of those two base hits, but certainly an RBI
13:42chance or an opportunity there, which they didn't get. Because why? Rangifo was cleaning up
13:46everything out there, so no RBIs actually got to Willie Calhoun. So still a decent night overall,
13:50but a good win for the Astros. And I keep getting back to this point. We don't have a team like the
13:54Phillies, who are the lead dogs out in the AL West, running away with a division, which would
13:58be like 10 or 12 games above the Houston Astros. It's tightly packed here. They're starting to play
14:03better baseball. There's a pedigree in Houston where they expect to be in the playoffs. I know
14:08they're 22 and 27, but it just feels like we want to kick them out of the playoffs already until you
14:13look at the standings and realize we're not even in the June yet. The Astros five games below 500,
14:20but still there's only one team in the American League West right now. It's the Seattle Mariners
14:26that is above 500, with the Rangers dropping below that mark in Seattle. A 6-3 victory yesterday in
14:32the Bronx. The Yanks entered this week winners of seven in a row, now on a two-game skid against
14:37the Mariners. That 6-3 victory for the M's yesterday. Yeah, that was pretty impressive
14:44that you're taking a look at Seattle going into New York. And I believe it was three straight
14:47games. I think they've now beaten the New York Yankees at this point. Pretty impressive stuff
14:52overall because if you're winning games against good teams in their own ballparks, that's going
14:56to help you late in the season, no doubt. The Mariners the only team in the American League West.
15:01Five games above 500 at 27 and 22. The favorites to win the division. How about those Kansas City
15:07Royals, DRS? They played 10 yesterday at home inside Kauffman against the Detroit Tigers.
15:13Six RBIs for the 280-million-dollar man Bobby Witt Jr. Three for four at the dish.
15:21Two home runs yesterday. Scored three runs, six ribbies. KC has won 31 games this year.
15:29They're 20-8 inside Kauffman with a 10-3 victory yesterday over Detroit.
15:34Love to say it. There's a lot of guys I like on that team on a night-to-night basis against decent
15:38pitching matchups for them to get RBI. Take a look at Garcia in the leadoff hole yesterday.
15:42Four of five. Now hitting 263. Picked up an RBI. Bobby Witt Jr. Six RBI. Now our guy Vinny P.
15:48Went one for five with no RBI. But Salvador Perez, another RBI. Michael Massey. You know,
15:52I've been talking about him quite a bit. One RBI in that game. This is a good, young, fun team to
15:56watch. And as I keep saying here, the later we get into the season, we're not into June yet,
16:01but the Kansas City Royals continue to stay well above 500. That breeds confidence in that
16:06locker room. And more importantly, lets that front office know, get us a couple pieces here.
16:10We might be able to make a run at this playoff race.
16:13Kansas City has won five straight, but so has Cleveland. So the Guardians maintain
16:18a game and a half lead over the Royals in the American League Central. Divisional duel
16:23in Tampa. The Red Sox have won both of the first two games this week in the Trop.
16:275-2 the victory for the Sox. Rafael Devers, though, his six-game streak of
16:32hitting at least a home run does come to a close.