Conor Ryan discusses the goalie rotation and the idea of sticking with Swayman for Game 4 against Toronto, and more factors that might impact the rest of the series.
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SportsTranscript
00:00 (upbeat music)
00:02 - And welcome in to Poke the Bear,
00:11 episode 224 presented by CLNS Media
00:14 and sponsored by our good friends
00:16 over here at PrizePix and Factor Meals.
00:19 My name is Connor Ryan,
00:20 and as you can see, we're riding solo today,
00:24 getting you guys ready for game four
00:25 between the Boston Bruins and the Toronto Maple Leafs,
00:28 set for 8 p.m., puck drop on Saturday night,
00:32 and it's a hectic time of year.
00:34 It's a good thing and a bad thing.
00:36 It's a good thing in that we have so much to talk about,
00:39 whether it's the Stanley Cup playoffs,
00:41 we've got the Celtics going down and playing the Heat,
00:44 we've got Messi down in Foxborough,
00:47 which I'm sure, God help anyone driving down Route 1
00:50 on Saturday night, and of course, we've got the NFL Draft.
00:53 People are all over the place, people are busy.
00:54 It's also a Saturday.
00:55 People maybe wanna take the day off,
00:57 so you're stuck with just me today, unfortunately,
01:00 but this will be a short one, this episode, 224,
01:04 but we'll serve as a little bit of a primer, I think,
01:06 just getting you Bruins fans ready
01:08 for what could be a key game four
01:11 for the Bruins on the road,
01:12 especially up 2-1 in their best of seven series
01:16 against the Toronto Maple Leafs,
01:17 and I think in terms of looking at a preview
01:20 of this matchup, you know where we're gonna start.
01:23 So we're gonna talk about pretty much every single game
01:26 throughout this run for however long it goes,
01:29 and it's gonna come down to the goal tending,
01:31 and specifically, which goalie is Jim Montgomery
01:35 gonna roll with in game four?
01:36 Because, listen, I've been asked this quite a bit.
01:41 I did a Reddit AMA on the Boston Bruins subreddit
01:45 on Thursday, which was fantastic.
01:47 If anyone who listens on the podcast
01:49 also submitted a question or followed along there
01:52 and read some of the comments, one, thank you.
01:55 As always, it's appreciated whether you read my stuff,
01:58 whether you listen to me on a podcast,
01:59 whether you send me something on Reddit, on Twitter,
02:02 all that good stuff, all of it is super appreciated
02:06 for all you guys, but a lot of the questions, as expected,
02:09 came down to what the Bruins are gonna do in net
02:11 for game four, and I think it comes down to two things.
02:14 What do I think the Bruins are gonna do,
02:17 and what are the Bruins gonna,
02:19 like, what do I want the Bruins to do, right?
02:22 So what do I think the Bruins are gonna do?
02:25 I think kind of Jim Montgomery kind of tipped his hand
02:28 before the regular season ended, where he was like,
02:31 we rotate through the first four games,
02:33 and then it's performance-based.
02:35 He mentioned that I think it was the second
02:36 or the third last game of the regular season.
02:39 I think that's probably what the Bruins' approach is
02:41 going into game four, where I think they're gonna go back
02:45 to Allmark, and I get the rationale behind it.
02:48 One, in terms of, all right, lean us Allmark.
02:51 I think most people agree, it wasn't the reason
02:54 why the Bruins lost game two.
02:56 I think he played at a really high level,
02:59 made some key saves that made what was a 3-2 final.
03:03 Could have been a whole lot more lopsided
03:05 for the Maple Leafs in that game if it wasn't for Allmark.
03:08 Again, results matter at the end of the day.
03:10 Weren't able to get the win, so that's kind of
03:12 what you have to stare at, but Allmark was not the reason
03:15 why they lost that game.
03:16 And the Bruins' net front coverage,
03:17 their transition game was so poor
03:19 that even if Swingman was a net for game two,
03:22 I really don't think it would have mattered all that much.
03:25 So I can see the Bruins' perspective
03:27 in terms of keeping the goalie rotation in place.
03:29 And going to game four, it's like,
03:32 if you win with Allmark in game four,
03:35 one, you have the plan still in place
03:38 with the goalie rotation.
03:39 You've got Allmark with a win.
03:41 He's probably feeling good about his game.
03:42 Not to say that I think he's probably feeling crappy
03:44 about losing game two, 'cause I think he played
03:47 at a really high level there,
03:48 but you get momentum on his side.
03:49 You got both your goalies feeling good about your game.
03:52 And if you win game four and come back to Boston
03:54 for game five on Tuesday, you got Jeremy Swingman,
03:57 who's been fantastic all series long
03:59 as your potential closer, pretty much in that game.
04:02 So I can see the Bruins' rationale there
04:04 in terms of sticking with the game plan,
04:06 turning to, again, Swingman's been the better goalie,
04:09 but it's not to say that Allmark has been a liability.
04:11 You've got the two best goalies in this series,
04:14 both on your team, which is a good problem to have.
04:16 So I could see that being the case for the Bruins
04:18 in terms of giving Allmark another go.
04:20 And if you lose, then, I mean, you still have Swingman
04:23 to turn to in game five, who's super rested, obviously,
04:27 as the guy that can maybe flip the momentum
04:29 back in your favor if you go back to Boston,
04:31 tied two-two in this matchup.
04:33 That being said, I mean, I just think you look
04:37 at just how good Swingman has been in this series.
04:40 And I'm all for the goalie rotation.
04:42 And listen, if you survive in advance
04:44 and you get to the next round,
04:45 I know I'm getting ahead of myself,
04:46 but if you're playing a team like the Florida Panthers,
04:49 reset the clock, do the same game plan again
04:52 where you alternate goalies.
04:53 If one of them catches fire, you adjust on the fly there.
04:56 But it's all about getting past this first round.
04:59 When you look at who's been playing better so far
05:02 in this series, especially against this opponent,
05:05 Jeremy Swingman gives you the best chance
05:06 to punch your ticket to the next round,
05:08 which is the main priority.
05:09 You don't wanna lose focus of where you are right now
05:12 and what the next step is
05:13 when you get to the Stanley Cup playoffs.
05:15 And right now, it's a special situation, I think,
05:18 which is how locked in and how dialed in
05:20 Jeremy Swingman is right now against this Maple Leafs team.
05:23 And I mean, he's been fantastic just in this series alone.
05:26 Through two games, he's got a 7.8 goals saved
05:29 above expected.
05:30 So guys saved almost eight goals
05:32 beyond what the Maple Leafs are generating.
05:33 They're generating a whole lot of net front chances,
05:36 a whole lot of opportunities at the low slot,
05:40 really making things difficult for Jeremy Swingman.
05:43 And he stood tall and he's been immense.
05:45 I think the number two goalie in terms of goals saved
05:48 above expected is Logan Thompson on the Golden Knights.
05:52 And his goal saved above expected is 2.4.
05:54 So Swingman has been immense
05:57 in terms of just how good he's been so far
06:00 in this series so far.
06:01 So I think you look at it right.
06:03 I mean, the fact that what gives the Bruins the best chance
06:08 in terms of going on a run here
06:11 and just getting you past this Maple Leafs team,
06:13 I think it's gotta be Swingman in game four.
06:15 And again, like you go to Swingman in game four
06:18 and you win and he's still money once again,
06:20 you revisit the same situation,
06:22 but then all of a sudden you're up 3-1.
06:24 If you wanted to, you can try to sweep the leg
06:26 with Jeremy Swingman again in game five,
06:28 three straight shots.
06:29 And I'd be asking a little bit,
06:30 but all of a sudden if you're up 3-1,
06:32 maybe then you have an opportunity to turn to Allmark
06:34 to kind of seal the deal.
06:35 And all of a sudden if he's up to the task,
06:37 and again, he's been really good
06:39 pretty much since the trade deadline,
06:41 you're able to win game five
06:42 with Allmark getting the start there.
06:44 Then you go into the next round,
06:45 both your goalies feeling good about your game
06:47 and you punch your ticket to the next round.
06:48 Like again, you map out all these different scenarios.
06:51 And again, they can all fall to the wayside.
06:54 Like Swingman could run out of gas,
06:55 Allmark could start game four and lose.
06:58 And all of a sudden momentum's not really on your side
07:00 going into a pivotal 2-2 series.
07:02 But I don't know.
07:04 I just think you look at just how good Swingman has been
07:07 specifically against this team.
07:08 If you want to go back to the entire regular season,
07:11 he's 5-0-0 against Toronto.
07:13 And Jim Montgomery kind of mentioned it on Thursday, right?
07:15 That with like Max Dunley bumping into Swingman,
07:19 like Montgomery mentioned that maybe Swingman's
07:22 in their head, that they're trying to knock him off his game.
07:24 And at that point, right?
07:25 Like we look at the post-season and the playoffs
07:28 and all the factors that play into it.
07:30 And we look at the physicality and the physical toll
07:34 that comes with the playoffs
07:35 and how much even just like an aggressive forecheck
07:37 will wear a player down from game one to game seven.
07:41 But like, there's also the mental toll of it, right?
07:43 And the mental edge of like, if you're the Maple Leafs
07:46 who are an elite team offensively,
07:48 especially at five on five play,
07:50 and you generate a whole lot of good chances.
07:52 It's not like they've been playing to the perimeter
07:54 or like, again, they're one for 11 on the power play,
07:57 but like, it's not like they're kind of like
07:59 what the Bruins are when they had that really bad slump
08:01 going into the playoffs
08:02 where like they couldn't even break the puck out.
08:04 They couldn't even get through the neutral zone.
08:06 They've been generating good chances,
08:07 but if you've got a guy like Swammon
08:09 who keeps on denying you time and time again,
08:11 you'll get game four.
08:12 And yes, you've got maybe some momentum
08:14 if you're the Maple Leafs,
08:15 you may be a William Nylander back,
08:16 you're back in your own building.
08:18 Again, it's a clean slate.
08:20 You can go and try to even up this series
08:22 going back to Boston.
08:23 And then you look across the other side of the ice
08:25 and it's still Jeremy Swammon again,
08:27 the guy that's owned you all the season long.
08:29 Like, it's a bit of a mental edge there
08:31 or a mental toll if you're the Maple Leafs
08:33 in terms of what you're going up against in that game four.
08:37 So listen, again, what do I want the Bruins to do
08:41 is very different from what I think the Bruins will do.
08:44 I think the Bruins are gonna turn to Omar
08:46 and keep the rotation going,
08:47 knowing that they have the insurance
08:49 of turning to Swammon in game five if need be.
08:52 But if I'm the Bruins and you look at just
08:54 what the circumstances are against this team
08:56 with how good Swammon has been,
08:59 I think you get a roll of Swammon in game four.
09:01 And then you reassess from there.
09:02 If you win, it is a fantastic problem to have.
09:05 You go back to Boston 3-1, you steal two games in Toronto,
09:09 and then do you pick Swammon again
09:11 and really deviate from the goalie rotation?
09:13 Or do you go with the reigning best and a trophy winner
09:15 who's got a 3-1 series edge, is playing at a high level,
09:20 and get him rolling to close that series out?
09:22 So that'd be a good problem to have if you're the Bruins,
09:25 but we'll kind of see what the next steps are.
09:28 But if I had to guess, I'm gonna say the Bruins
09:31 are gonna offer Omar in game four.
09:34 So that's my prediction.
09:36 We'll see.
09:36 I'll probably be wrong when his warm-ups show out
09:39 on at 7.30 on Saturday night.
09:42 But before we dive into a little bit more of this game,
09:44 let's take another quick break here.
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11:22 Once again, shout out to our good friends over at PrizePicks.
11:29 All right, looking a little bit further ahead
11:31 at this Game 4 matchup, beyond just the goaltending,
11:34 comes down to the lineups
11:36 and whatever personnel decisions the Bruins might make
11:39 going into Game 4.
11:40 I think you look at it from Toronto's side of things,
11:43 it does seem like the writing's on the wall
11:45 that William Nylander's gonna be back in the lineup
11:46 for Game 4 for them,
11:48 and that's gonna be a game changer for Toronto
11:52 in terms of the luxury you have of having a guy
11:55 that scored 98 points to be on your third line.
11:58 And I mentioned this, I think,
11:59 on "Poke the Bear" with Evan earlier this week.
12:02 The third line's been pretty solid for Toronto already
12:06 with guys like Kampff and what have you.
12:08 Like, they've done a lot of damage,
12:10 or I think Louis had productive shifts.
12:12 Changes when you have a guy like Nylander
12:13 who can finish a lot of plays if he's getting set up,
12:16 especially in grade A ice.
12:17 So I think for the Bruins,
12:19 the biggest strategy's gonna be just how you deal
12:21 with balancing your lines,
12:23 and especially your defensive pairings,
12:25 going into this matchup.
12:26 There's no easy way to do it.
12:28 I think you look at the way the Bruins set up
12:30 in terms of their practice on Friday,
12:34 not a whole lot of changes.
12:35 I know Danton Heinen didn't practice on Friday.
12:37 Montgomery mentioned it was just maintenance,
12:39 so you imagine he's back in the lineup,
12:41 but really weren't any changes at all
12:43 in terms of their forwards up front
12:46 of how they were handling things.
12:47 I imagine JV is gonna be back in the lineup,
12:50 and see if he can build some momentum.
12:53 Justin Brezzo and Derek Fullbark both skated on Friday.
12:57 Montgomery mentioned that, again,
12:58 Brezzo, even though he's skating, which is a good sign,
13:01 probably not a realistic option
13:02 unless the Bruins advance to the second round,
13:05 which would be a huge plus for them,
13:07 beyond the fact of obviously advancing,
13:08 is getting a guy like him back in your bottom six.
13:11 But Forbert is getting closer,
13:12 but Montgomery doesn't think he's quite ready yet
13:15 for game four.
13:17 So I think the bigger question is
13:19 what you look at the decor for game four,
13:21 especially if you have to account for a guy like Nylander.
13:23 And you look at practice on Friday,
13:26 the same group we pretty much saw in game three,
13:29 which again, maybe you don't mess with what you had
13:32 when you win game three,
13:33 but it's Laurie McAvoy, Lintone Carlo,
13:36 Wetherspoon, Shattenkirk,
13:37 and then the extras were Forbert and Matt Gerslake,
13:40 who was obviously scratched from game three.
13:42 And I don't know, I feel like if you're the Bruins,
13:46 and this is just my pick,
13:49 I would still slot in Gerslake and take out Shattenkirk.
13:52 And again, I know there's,
13:55 Matt Gerslake is a very divisive player,
13:57 and I think he didn't really have a great game too.
13:59 Lost a couple of board battles,
14:01 but I think when you look at what the Bruins
14:02 are looking to do from their decor
14:04 in terms of breaking the puck out,
14:06 making the short, simple pass
14:08 to get the puck moving down the other end of the ice,
14:11 especially at five on five play,
14:14 I think Gerslake offers a little bit more
14:15 than what a guy like Shattenkirk provides.
14:18 I mean, Shattenkirk,
14:19 didn't really have good net front coverage on Nye's goal
14:24 in game three.
14:26 You look at the fact that
14:27 the power play has been really effective,
14:31 but it's been kind of the other unit for the Bruins.
14:33 They're five for 10,
14:34 but it's a lot of that group of Marsh and DeBrus coil
14:37 that's generated a lot of those chances so far.
14:41 And when the power play is not reliant
14:42 on a guy like Shattenkirk to lift them up,
14:45 he's not factoring in too much into these games,
14:48 at least for right now.
14:48 I mean, he only had 10.05 of ice time in game three.
14:52 So if you're able to incorporate Gerslake
14:55 into the lineup, whether it's,
14:57 you put him on the third pair and more of a reduced role
15:00 with a guy like Parker Wetherspoon,
15:02 or you put him up with McAvoy,
15:04 which you know what that duo can do,
15:05 and you put Mason Laurie down with Parker Wetherspoon,
15:09 you kind of balance things out that way.
15:11 Or even they get super creative, the Bruins do,
15:13 and it's, you find a way to have one of McAvoy,
15:16 Carlo, and Lindholm all on separate pairs,
15:19 just so you have a kind of a foundational piece
15:22 on each D pair to kind of lift you up there.
15:24 Because with Toronto, with Sheldon Keefe and that team
15:28 having last change and the fact that they can send out,
15:30 if healthy, the Matthews line, or Marner and Tavares,
15:35 or William Nylander on his own line,
15:37 you're gonna really have to balance out these D pairs
15:40 and have a kind of a bedrock foundational guy there.
15:44 And like, again, Parker Wetherspoon
15:45 is more of a stay-at-home guy,
15:46 but I don't know if he's a guy that,
15:48 whether it's Wetherspoon and Laurie,
15:50 or Wetherspoon and Gerslake,
15:52 or Wetherspoon and Shaddenkirk, as was the case on Friday,
15:55 I just don't, you know, I don't see it being a situation
15:59 where you can just have him be kind of that
16:01 bedrock defender.
16:02 So maybe it is something where, again,
16:04 we've seen countless times already,
16:06 Jim Montgomery has changed things around.
16:08 We thought we were gonna get a McAvoy-Lindholm
16:11 super pairing to start,
16:12 and you look at all the practices before the playoffs,
16:14 and then all of a sudden,
16:15 they go back to the usual Carlo-Lindholm
16:18 for most of this series.
16:19 So we'll see if those things change going into this matchup.
16:22 But I think that's the biggest key is
16:24 who draws into the lineup on the defense.
16:26 I don't really see there being that many changes
16:29 up front for the Bruins going into game four.
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18:10 All right, let's wrap up this one by looking at,
18:12 I think, the biggest surprises so far.
18:16 I really, when you look at how this series has gone,
18:20 I'm not really that surprised by a lot of what's played out.
18:23 I think going into this matchup,
18:25 we expected Toronto to be a very impressive team up front.
18:29 I think you look at the fact that
18:32 they've really kind of changed their approach offensively
18:35 to be more of a five-on-five,
18:39 four-checking team that's, again,
18:41 you look at the way they generate offense,
18:43 it should be built for the playoffs,
18:44 and they've kind of done that.
18:46 The big equalizer has been Swamon,
18:48 and to a lesser extent, OMARC so far in this series,
18:52 but I think you look at the way
18:53 the Bruins have found success.
18:55 It's not anything that we didn't really
18:57 kind of see coming, right?
18:58 Like, it's special teams, which, again,
19:01 maybe you're surprised the Bruins are now
19:03 operating in 50% on the power play,
19:05 but Toronto had a very subpar penalty kill
19:10 going into the playoffs.
19:11 They've really been struggling on the power play.
19:14 I think they were operating at 12.5%,
19:17 pretty much for the last month of the regular season.
19:19 Again, they've had good looks,
19:20 but that is kind of carried over
19:22 when you add on the fact that Swamon's
19:24 really denied a lot of really good looks they've had,
19:26 but I think for me, the biggest surprise so far
19:29 is the lack of proven five-on-five scoring punch
19:33 right now for this Bruins team,
19:35 and again, we've said it,
19:37 the Bruins have had a lot of success so far
19:40 under Montgomery with being more selective
19:41 with their shot selection,
19:42 going maybe more for quality over quantity,
19:45 but I think you have to augment and change that approach
19:49 just a little bit when you look at a guy like Sam Soanov,
19:51 who, look at game three with that Trent Frederick goal,
19:55 where I think someone did like the,
19:57 I think it was like an odds or a way to like factor in
19:59 like the odds of a shot and the chance of it
20:03 actually beating a goalie, and it was like, what,
20:04 like 1.4% of that puck from that angle, that speed,
20:09 what have you, beating a goal tender.
20:11 Like Sam Soanov has had some really good saves
20:13 in this series, especially in game two,
20:15 but he's got us prone for at least a couple of these goals
20:18 where if you're a Maples fan,
20:19 you probably want to take your hair out,
20:21 and I think for the Bruins,
20:22 it's all about getting more shots on that,
20:24 especially at five-on-five play,
20:25 and I believe it was Fluto Shinzawa of The Athletic
20:28 who mentioned that, David Poston,
20:30 like he gets that goal in game two, obviously,
20:32 but he only had two shots on goal during five-on-five play.
20:36 Like I think for the Bruins, yes,
20:39 like I think it's to be expected for Toronto
20:41 to really control and drive play at five-on-five play.
20:44 They're going to generate more chances,
20:45 but it shouldn't be that lopsided,
20:48 especially in terms of the baseline production.
20:50 When you have a guy like Sam Soanov in net,
20:52 I think you look at how prone he is
20:54 to giving up some of these chances.
20:56 If you're the Bruins, again,
20:58 I think you can rely on the power play to help you out here.
21:00 The way it's playing right now,
21:01 you can rely on your goaltending,
21:03 whether it's Swammon or Olmark in game four
21:05 to keep you in these games,
21:07 even when you're going to expect
21:08 quite the pushback from Toronto.
21:10 But at the end of the day,
21:11 I just think you look at where the Bruins are
21:14 and how much they can maybe make things easier
21:16 for themselves.
21:17 Just get pucks on net against Sam Soanov.
21:19 You should be able to land a few more punches
21:21 at five-on-five play and not be on the ropes
21:23 time and time again,
21:25 away from the power play against this matchup.
21:27 So we'll see how it all kind of pans out in game four.
21:30 It's going to be a key matchup.
21:32 Bruins, you have to imagine
21:35 there's going to be a big pushback from Toronto,
21:36 especially with the lift they're going to get
21:39 if Nylander is indeed back in this game,
21:41 but it might come down to the goaltending once again.
21:43 And whether it's Swammon or Olmark,
21:45 you have the distinct advantage with whoever you turn to.
21:48 It's just, in my opinion,
21:50 you're better off with Swammon.
21:52 You'd advantage just a little bit better
21:53 when you have a guy that's five and O
21:54 against a team this season.
21:56 So we will see how it plays out.
21:59 This is episode 224 of Poke the Bear.
22:02 Thank you guys for listening.
22:04 You fans have a great rest of your week.
22:06 (upbeat music)
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22:16 (upbeat music)