European Central Bank Set to Maintain Record High Interest Rates, Investors' Rate-Cut Expectations Premature

The European Central Bank is expected to hold interest rates at their record-high levels this week following the monetary policy meeting on Thursday. Markets are pricing in around a 60% chance of the ECB's first rate cut occurring in April, but officials have pushed back on expectations for cuts so soon. Some analysts see rate cuts starting in April totaling 125bps in 2024, but others argue cuts may not come until June or potentially not at all this year. ECB President Lagarde said she agreed cuts are likely over the summer but remains "reserved" and dependent on economic data.