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00:00 I'm sure that you would grant me five minutes only.
00:06 So I should double it.
00:08 Thank you very much.
00:10 I welcome everyone to the Nigerian Institute of International Affairs.
00:14 We are very delighted to be playing host to the Guardian at 40.
00:20 We congratulate you and wish you even more fruitful years as you pursue what your motto
00:28 says, "The conscience nurtured by truth."
00:32 Now I have a very difficult task ahead of me today.
00:37 You would have seen the advertised title of just not only the book but also my keynote
00:46 that says, "If federalism is the answer, what is the question?"
00:55 Now I thought this one suggested another round of confusion, creating a conundrum that in
01:03 1982 led my teacher and senior colleague, Professor John Ayode, to write a monograph
01:10 entitled "Federalism in Nigeria, the Worship of an Unknown God."
01:18 And he was simply saying that, you know, many times you listen to debates, you read, you
01:24 know, contributions from people and you wonder if the people know what they are talking about.
01:31 So his confusion was even those who advocate for federalism don't even have a sense of
01:37 what they are saying.
01:39 And so when you say, "It is the answer, but what is the question?"
01:45 You are further complexifying that conundrum.
01:50 Now imagine for one minute the proposition that says, "If A, then B," where B is the
01:56 answer to A. And you are saying that B would be true irrespective of what A is.
02:03 In other words, irrespective of what the question is, B would be invariantly true.
02:09 Now that in itself has to have a form of illogicality, except one to argue, and we can prove, that
02:18 B would be the answer to all A, notwithstanding the conditions or problems raised by A.
02:28 Now would that be true of federalism, for instance?
02:32 With all of the problems that we know of federalism and the fact that its success is not always
02:37 guaranteed.
02:38 You know, would such a system be a ready answer and solution to all that we want to deal with?
02:46 So I thought we should go to the bag of wisdom of the famous and legendary tortoise and get
02:54 what he would say.
02:56 And part of the recommendations you would get from that bag of skills and wisdom would
03:01 be working from the answer to the question.
03:05 And that is what I think would make sense.
03:07 If you work from the answer to the question, then you can say, "Yes, it's a solution, but
03:13 what is the problem?"
03:15 So rather than say, "What is the question?"
03:17 We then presuppose that federalism provides solutions to certain kinds of problems.
03:24 And that's the framework within which I think we would want to look at the federalist papers
03:31 from the Guardian.
03:32 But let me also say that we're very delighted, as the Nigerian Institute of International
03:37 Affairs, to be returning to a theme that we once had to consider in 1978.
03:44 In 1978, the NIIA brought the whole world to this same hall and had an international
03:54 conference on federalism.
03:56 Now that conference led to the publication of a 1979 classic entitled "Readings on Federalism,"
04:04 edited by Bolaji Akinyemi, Patrick Delecour, and Walter Fonagoro.
04:09 Now that was a 1979 publication.
04:13 That conference was very significant because that long ago, the world took Africa and Nigeria
04:20 in particular so seriously that it believed we had things to contribute to the world of
04:26 learning.
04:27 Now, how be it in 2023, several years after, we no longer are considered worthy of such
04:36 contributions.
04:38 To the contrary, we now get invited to all kinds of summits where people tell us about
04:44 ourselves and we are hardly allowed to speak for ourselves.
04:49 So I'm glad that President Deschino has made the point that we should have a reversal.
04:55 And the NIIA stands strongly for that, that summits on Africa must happen in Africa.
05:03 And the NIIA has provided a platform for this reversal that will change the global narrative
05:10 and global understanding of issues that are very dear to our hearts, including federalism.
05:18 The second thing is many of the issues that are raised in the federalist papers by the
05:22 Guardian were already tackled in the 1978 conference.
05:29 And if those issues are the same issues we continue to tackle today, it tells you something
05:35 about federalism.
05:36 It tells you something about the dynamic character of federalism and the fact that federalism
05:41 never solves any problem once and for all.
05:46 Federalism is a living system, it's very dynamic, and it gets to be adjusted and recalibrated
05:53 as the society continues to unravel.
05:56 We'll come to that in a minute.
05:58 But I must consider myself very, very lucky that I'm asked to do this at the end of three
06:07 of my very recent outings on federalism.
06:10 The first was a publication in 2014 entitled A State of Our Own, which was an inaugural
06:17 lecture that I delivered at the University of London.
06:22 In that outing, my argument simply was that Africa is going through a sort of revolution
06:31 of the reenactment of the state as a self-determined entity, and that the only vehicle, the only
06:40 instrumentality that could be used to very profitable ends in that regard has to be federalism.
06:48 So federalism provided that kind of answer.
06:52 And then in another publication which Abate just referred to, Federal Solutions to State
07:00 Failure in Africa, I had the following argument, very simply put, that today you talk about
07:07 failing, failed, fragile, weak states in Africa, and people are saying, "Why is Africa so blessed?"
07:16 Africa has never been so cursed.
07:19 Africa has always been blessed.
07:20 But where is the Africa in statehood?
07:24 It's Pierre Engelbert, in a 1997 conundrum, described the African state as a state that
07:33 is neither African nor state.
07:37 So in that book, my simple argument is that what is failing in Africa, what is fragile
07:47 in Africa, is the colonial inheritance, that that state that we have that is neither African
07:53 nor state is decomposing.
07:57 And the fact of that decomposition has been accelerated by the second independence movement
08:03 that you find all through the corners of Africa.
08:07 In Nigeria, it takes the form of separatist agitations, it takes the form of terrorism,
08:13 it takes the form of violent extremism, it takes the form of secessionist movements.
08:19 These are movements questioning the sanctity and tenability of the colonial state.
08:27 And that dissolution is already underway.
08:29 It reinforces the need for federalism, because a new state that would be the solution to
08:38 the failure and disappearance of the colonial state, what in essence would then be the post-colonial
08:45 state in its organic form, would be one that needs to be re-bargained and renegotiated.
08:52 There is no substitute for doing so except federalism.
08:57 My third and nearer home to this particular conundrum was the inaugural that I delivered
09:04 at the University of Ibadan in 2019, entitled "What Man Has Joined Together."
09:12 Now federalism is a system that has been put together by man to solve man-made problems,
09:20 to solve existential problems in a way that has been designed not to fail.
09:27 But you know, when you have a human contrivance, the chances are that there will be imperfections
09:33 and there will be problems.
09:34 But federalism is a very delicate system that requires very delicate balancing to survive
09:43 and to work.
09:44 This is the argument.
09:46 And so when the Guardian papers would say and argue that federalism is the answer, yes,
09:54 to what problem?
09:56 It is to the problem of the management of diversity.
10:01 That's correct.
10:02 And so we can begin to see that the Guardian papers are taking us back to a route that
10:10 is very fundamental to the existence of federalism.
10:14 You cannot have federalism without federalists.
10:18 You need people who understand federalism.
10:20 You need people who would advocate for it.
10:22 You need people who would defend it.
10:25 And that is the role that I see the Guardian papers playing today.
10:30 For those of us who want to go a little deeper, you will find that even in the United States
10:35 of America, at the 1787 Philadelphia Convention, there were those who wrote the federalist
10:43 papers and went around mobilizing support for why a united and integrated America would
10:50 be better than a divided America.
10:53 So what you have as American federalism today has such very, very mobilized foundations
11:01 by federalists who were truly federalists.
11:05 For a long time, our federalists have disappeared in Nigeria.
11:10 So maybe the Guardian is beginning the process of resuscitating the federalist movement,
11:16 creating the sense to work in 61 outings, 61 writings that make up this book.
11:25 The Guardian has argued that federalism is the most appropriate and suitable system for
11:32 Nigeria.
11:33 I don't think many of us would disagree with that.
11:37 However, I think that federalism still needs to be further understood.
11:46 And the problem that I would just mention in the few minutes that I have is that the
11:52 essence of federalism is not to be found in the federal constitution only.
12:00 The essence of federalism is not to be found in federal government.
12:05 The congerence of solutions that federalism provides requires greater innovativeness,
12:13 creativity, adaptability that will suit the circumstances of individual federal situations.
12:21 A while ago, Dr. Deschino talked about the epidemiology of even development and made
12:31 the case for an African contextualized approach to dealing with issues of development.
12:39 Federalism can be even truer than that for federalism.
12:44 There's an epidemiological approach to federalism that says no two federations can be exactly
12:51 alike.
12:53 Federalism provides a framework for doing the kinds of things that states want to do
12:58 in terms of solving problems.
13:01 But to say that American federalism, like Casey Ware argued a long time ago, is the
13:08 beginning and the end of federalism is simply to miss a point.
13:12 Because what is true of America can never be true of Nigeria.
13:19 Many people don't realize it, that with over 250 ethnic groups in our country, there is
13:26 no country else in the world that is exactly like Nigeria.
13:32 So the kind of federalism that will work in Nigeria is not federalism that thrives on
13:39 a federal constitution that is crafted in America and borrowed and imported to our land
13:47 to fit the circumstances that are incongruent with those of the United States.
13:54 Every federal situation, to the extent of its context, its historicity, and its political
14:01 economy, has the federalism that suits its circumstances.
14:08 So for one federal situation, if you find the instrumentalities that work for you, that
14:15 is true federalism.
14:18 True federalism is a contextual variable, and that contextuality is what defines federalism.
14:26 So the essence of federalism, William Livingston argued in 1952, is not to be found in the
14:35 constitution.
14:36 It is rather to be found in the nature of society served by that constitution.
14:42 So a sociological approach that says, what are the imperatives that need to be addressed?
14:52 That is what I advocate.
14:54 In most of these 61 outings by the Guardian, you will find almost article after article
15:01 enamoring the so-called perfection of the 1963 constitution.
15:07 Now think of the 1963 constitution.
15:10 This was a constitution, many people don't remember, that had provision for emergency
15:17 powers under which the federal government could take over the affairs of regions.
15:23 And the sacking of the action group from the western region owed a lot to that possibility,
15:30 which was actualized.
15:33 This was a constitution that allowed the regional commissioner of police to take orders from
15:39 the inspector general of police.
15:41 The same things that we say today.
15:44 This was a constitution that had many of the problems that we have today, suggesting to
15:50 us that we needed a lot more than just what the constitutional provisions had for us.
15:57 But let me even suggest to us that the greatest problem that our constitution faced in that
16:04 first republic was not that we didn't have a good constitutional order.
16:10 In addition to the central constitution, we had regional constitutions.
16:15 But Nigeria failed a more fundamental federalism test, which is embodied in the J.S.
16:23 Mill's law of federal instability.
16:26 According to this law, if it is the case that one or a few component units of a federation
16:36 have so much power that they can lord it over the rest of the country, of the federation,
16:43 that federation would be perennially unstable.
16:46 It cannot last long.
16:48 The problem we had bedeviling our federalism that long ago, and many still think it's bedeviling
16:55 us today, is the fact that people feared domination.
17:01 They still fear domination.
17:05 At the national level, we had the fear of national domination.
17:09 Within the constituent units, minorities also feared the domination of majority groups.
17:14 And those problems remain with us.
17:17 But let me just quickly put all of this in perspective in terms of the changing instrumentalities
17:22 that W.A. Livingston talked about.
17:26 We had, up until 1966, a region-centered federal trajectory, meaning that we had regions that
17:37 were not just simply autonomous, but they were described as independent states in a
17:43 primitive international system.
17:46 That's how divided the regions were.
17:48 It was the West for Westerners, East for Easterners, and the North for Northerners.
17:53 For Nigeria, everyone, maybe the minorities could contend, but everyone wanted to be autonomous.
18:03 And so they were.
18:04 In 1967, we fought a civil war, which was like the logical conclusion of the divisiveness
18:13 that had eaten Nigerian federalism up.
18:16 So the military thought for a minute that the only way to save this country and to redeem
18:23 it was to tweak the nature of our federal solution and move rapidly from a region-centered
18:33 federal trajectory to a nation-centered federal trajectory.
18:39 And that was the transition that we had, which was fully paid for by the RIC FA Panel report
18:45 which, in 1976, in recommending that we move from a 12-state structure to a 19-state structure,
18:53 said the following, that it is no longer necessary for any constituent unit of Nigeria to be
19:00 viable because the whole essence of viability now is a function of the viability of the
19:07 central government.
19:08 As long as the central government is viable, the country and its constituent units will
19:14 be viable.
19:15 And that's where we are today.
19:18 Now, that nation-centered trajectory of federalism brought us from a production-based federalism
19:29 to a consumer-based federalism.
19:32 So everyone, everything that should be productive is now seen only in terms of, first, consumption,
19:43 and entitlement, which is actually a recipe for indolence.
19:50 So rather than be productive, all that you need to do is to get a strategic advantage,
19:57 what economists call comparative advantage, by ensuring that you have a succession to
20:02 power.
20:04 And then you can have your own turn in sharing of a national cake.
20:10 Now what I hear federalism as answer saying is that we are at that intercession where
20:18 we need to tweak our federal instrumentalities again.
20:22 We need to get back to things that approximate the era where state viability was a major
20:32 consideration in the disaggregation of our federal system.
20:38 The present centralized or hyper-centralized instrumentalities can no longer suffice.
20:45 We need to work out new frameworks for our federalism.
20:51 And I'm saying that in working out the new framework, it cannot simply and only be about
20:58 the Constitution.
21:00 We need to talk about the strengths that have come the way of Nigeria through how far we
21:07 have gone with the federal political culture of accommodation and resilience and tolerance
21:14 and win-win for everyone that would allow us all to get into new magical forms of bargaining
21:22 and renegotiation.
21:24 The ones that would then make the state that will emerge a state exactly the way we want
21:30 it, a state of our own where everyone finds a just and equitable cause to be part and
21:37 parcel of Nigeria.
21:39 I recommend this publication to you because as I say, it's inconceivable.
21:48 I see that the learned gentleman is looking at me and saying, "This man is trying to oppose
21:56 what lawyers know best to do."
21:59 Each time I listen to commentaries on TV and on radio, especially when I listen to Ruben
22:07 Abati saying, "Section 121, Section 40, Section…"
22:14 I say, "There they go again."
22:16 Do these guys understand that federalism entails a lot more than legal engineering?
22:27 The way forward for us as a people is to balance federalism as federal government and federalism
22:36 without federal government.
22:39 The things that would make us, and this is how I will close, the days when we would have
22:44 thought that we can have a highly decentralized or denationalized or non-centralized federal
22:52 system, those days are gone.
22:56 The present nation-state trajectory supports only centralized states.
23:04 And that's one reason why the executive branch of government has dominated nation-states
23:10 today.
23:11 That's why the president of every country appears like the only one who can talk for
23:17 the country.
23:19 But if we want to have a country where all of us can find the space, I will refer us
23:28 to the article that Martin Zorloja wrote after his most recent visit to Akwa Ibom State,
23:36 where he said, "I have seen that federalism is the answer after all.
23:40 What did he see?
23:41 He saw a state that was different, that was thriving."
23:45 Now that is not because the Constitution allows it.
23:48 It is because the space that is available for a certain state autonomy has been used
23:53 by the governors of Akwa Ibom to build the states.
23:58 You're looking for indolence, you'll find in many state governors that kind of indolence.
24:05 That is the federalism of military federalism.
24:11 The federalism we want now is a demilitarized federalism.
24:17 Thank you.
24:18 [applause]
24:18 [end of transcript]
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