00:00 - Affirm. Let's get to that one.
00:02 And then we'll get to, of course, Mark Chaykin.
00:03 So everybody smash the like, affirm Q1 EPS
00:06 at a loss of 57 cents beat a loss of 70 cent estimate.
00:10 Sales of 496.55 million beat the 444.77 million estimate.
00:15 They do see Q4 revenues at 495 to 520 million
00:22 versus a 502.39 million estimate.
00:26 Fiscal year 24 GMB of more than 24.25 billion.
00:31 And one thing that I wanted to bring you guys
00:34 is I did a little research inside the report.
00:36 I'm gonna give you guys the image
00:37 so you guys can see it on the screen now as I explain this.
00:40 And so 26% of delinquent loans
00:44 are using a firm's payment deferral
00:47 to essentially stay alive.
00:50 1,583 loans of the 6,098,
00:55 which are using payment deferral.
00:57 And it's clearly stated right here on the earnings.
01:00 Money Mitch doing a little bit of a deep dive for you guys.
01:03 - So people are loving this affirm
01:04 'cause they pay later,
01:07 meaning sometimes they pay never actually
01:09 it's 'cause payment deferrals are all there.
01:12 So they can do four to 20 pass, nine pass,
01:14 do non-delinquent loans.
01:15 So there's quite a few that are non-delinquent, I guess.
01:18 - Yeah, like I stated, there'll be 74%
01:22 that are non-delinquent, 26% are using that payment deferral
01:26 to stay alive. - I wonder what that number
01:27 is historically, like what it is at a firm.
01:29 Because I think a lot of people using a firm
01:31 that maybe some of these 24% never pay their bills.
01:35 I don't know.
01:36 Maybe they do, maybe they just take their time
01:37 paying their bills.
01:38 But I've challenged the concept for a while here of a firm.
01:43 Obviously the stock has come significantly off
01:46 of its all time high, which was $176 back in 2021.
01:50 They never going back there.
01:52 I think the path of least resistance is eventually lower,
01:56 but right now bulls are in control of stuff.
01:57 I mean, we're up nine days around the S&P.
01:59 IWM is trying to get a little bit of life here today.
02:01 It's hard shorting stocks right now.
02:03 Eventually there's gonna be a time
02:04 to short stocks here again.
02:06 That time is coming soon, I think.
02:08 But it's hard to just come in here and say,
02:10 yeah, I'm shorting this pop because you short the pop
02:12 and the stocks continue.
02:13 Also upstart really lowered the bar for a firm.
02:16 UPST got hammered yesterday.
02:18 No sniff of a bid.
02:19 A firm was down with it, but then rallied
02:21 towards the end of the day.
02:22 Now a firm pops and goes the other way on it.
02:24 So low bar for a firm here because of upstart the day before.
02:28 I'm just staying away.
02:29 I do see a lot of resistance though.
02:31 Joel, give us a quick level.
02:32 2513, yeah, we're back up right near the highs in the move.
02:36 So keep an eye on 2513 and somehow if it gets through that,
02:40 the recent high of the move, 2563.
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