Ketika IHSG Balik Arah 1,64%, Akhiri Diskon Sehari Sebelumnya
IHSG hari ini berbalik arah, 1,64% menutup pelemahan sehari sebelumnya -1,63%. Penguatan dimotori saham pada sektor yang sensitif suku bunga seperti teknologi, properti dan keuangan. Sentimen positif utamanya dari keputusan bank sentral AS yang menahan suku bunga. Meski diseluruh pasar net foreign asing tercatat sell namun dipasar reguler tercatat nett buy Rp114,37 Miliar.
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TVTranscript
00:00 And the next news is another information that is a highlight in this morning.
00:05 You can see the complete data on the screen.
00:07 Among them, there is information from the Pemirsa duo.
00:09 It fell 49.8% to Rp 138 billion in Q3 2023.
00:16 There is also information from the Pemirsa from the Rebound Joint Stock Index.
00:20 The Gold Topping Pintop Gainers stock rose 14.52% in trading yesterday.
00:25 The stock holds the technology, property and financial sector sensitive to the flower.
00:30 The leader of the ISG's strength is reversed to 1.64%.
00:35 We see several economic agendas that should be considered.
00:39 Among them, the Pemirsa from the United States, the Central Bank of the Fed,
00:43 from Germany, the Trade Bank of September, Singapore, retail sales of September,
00:47 Thailand, reserve of deficit, Australia, retail sales.
00:51 Meanwhile, the Pemirsa from the EMI10 agenda, there is the ACRA, Ex-Dividend Tunai Interim.
00:59 Then there is the BATA, General Meeting of Stockholders, BIPP, General Meeting of Stockholders and BMAS,
01:05 Ex-HMETD, MBAP, DPS Dividend Tunai Interim, SMSM, Pum Dividend Tunai Interim,
01:12 FICI, Payment of Dividend Tunai Interim.
01:17 And we see the update from the Asian Stock Exchange, Pemirsa.
01:21 The complete information can be seen on the television screen,
01:23 which may be a reference to the movement of the IHSG in the opening of the first trading session today.
01:28 Nikkei from Japan, strengthens 1.1%, Stratum 1.06%,
01:34 Kospi also almost 1% and Hang Seng Hong Kong also usually weakens 0.75%.
01:46 In the market bus segment today, Pemirsa, we have been connected through a video conference
01:51 with Mr. Arya Santoso, President Director of the CSA Institute.
01:55 Good morning, Mr. Arya.
01:57 Good morning, Prisca.
01:58 Wow, you're so excited, Mr. Arya.
01:59 Because if we look at it from Asia, positive, global positive, IHSG too,
02:03 immediately paid the previous day's losses, which fell 1.63%,
02:08 tomorrow it will be paid directly 1.64%.
02:11 How strong do you see the price index and the combination?
02:15 We see that the IHSG index has touched the 6650 support,
02:19 there is a little bit of a misstep, but in that range,
02:23 it turns out there is optimism again, which again will test the resistance at 6835.
02:29 And maybe at the end of the year, for further strengthening,
02:32 it will touch the 6963 target.
02:37 Apparently there is still optimism today.
02:41 Okay, what do you see, the analysis in the hope that the Federal Reserve
02:46 has reached the end of the campaign for the rise of the flower breed?
02:49 Do you really see that this is the last sign of the strengthening of the DeFed flower breed?
02:55 Yes, it seems that DeFed is holding its flower breed,
02:59 indeed from the projection of about 1-2 years ahead,
03:03 the target is to reduce it back to even below 2%.
03:07 I think this creates optimism back to the market,
03:11 both in America, in the Asian region, and including Indonesia.
03:16 So the hope is that there will be a decline again from the flower breed,
03:21 which may be held at the current level.
03:25 Okay, 6751.
03:28 What will the next opportunity be for the IHSG index and the combination?
03:34 Well, for now, as usual at the end of the year or before the new year,
03:39 there is usually optimism that sees how the performance of Quartal 3,
03:44 which we do pay attention to, some companies are quite good,
03:48 and then there will be a possibility for the IHSG target to return to 6963.
03:55 6963.
03:57 Yes.
03:58 But what about the next target, the next resistance,
04:02 to confirm that it can reach 6963, at what level, Mr. Arya?
04:06 At first, it reached the resistance at 6835 first.
04:10 After reaching 6835, the target was 6963.
04:15 Is this 6963 the target of the end of the year from the IHSG?
04:19 Yes, from our analysis, it reached that level at 6963 first.
04:24 There are many Mr. Arya who are 7100, why is it only 6963 from the IHSG?
04:28 Yes, so we see that from the target that has been reached at the highest level at 74600,
04:35 but then from the optimism that is now there,
04:38 and then we see from the technical channeling,
04:42 there is also resistance in the range of 6963.
04:46 And so we will see first, the weight later at the end of the year,
04:49 whether the evolve will continue, whether the optimism continues to grow,
04:54 then there is a possibility to reach the psychological level of 7000.
04:57 But for now, we see that at level 6963,
05:00 it is crucial enough to be the target level at the end of the year.
05:04 Okay, 6963, so the optimism only reached 6963 first.
05:08 If 6963 can be achieved, then it can be upgraded again, right?
05:12 The target for the IHSG.
05:13 Because at the end of the year, it was 7046,
05:15 so the psychological level of 7000 seems strong enough
05:18 that for now it will be the upper limit as a target.
05:24 6751 at the moment for the IHSG, what trend is it in, sir?
05:28 Yes, we see that in the movement from September until now,
05:34 the trend is still decreasing.
05:36 We see that it still forms lower high and lower low.
05:39 Meanwhile, it is trying to break through and we observe the resistance that is now there,
05:45 at least it can break through on average for the last 20 days,
05:49 which is around 6827, so our target is 6835 first for the IHSG target.
05:56 Okay, that means even though yesterday it was 1.64%,
06:01 compared to the previous one, it dropped 1.63%,
06:03 it was immediately paid off, right, Mr. Arya?
06:05 But in the middle, the IHSG is actually still in a discounted pattern, right?
06:12 Yes, for now, there are still weaknesses,
06:15 namely retracement and therefore it is very likely to be consolidated in the range of 6650 to 6790.
06:22 What about foreign exchange?
06:24 If we look at the net foreign buy, it was 114 billion,
06:29 but actually the all market is still red,
06:31 still selling at 16.21 billion rupiah, not too big, sir.
06:36 But for the last week, it was still net sell, 1.67 trillion rupiah.
06:41 What is your comment on this net foreign, sir?
06:44 So we also see that there is a rebalancing from the foreign side that places investment in Indonesia.
06:53 When like quite large funds,
06:56 we see it like a bank in Bukumpar, Bank BCA, Bank Bandiri, and like in Telkom.
07:05 When they already have capital gain, they will reduce their position and it becomes a pressure to the market,
07:10 and it happens as if there is an outflow,
07:12 but most of them actually still stay in the long term.
07:15 So in a short term, there is a rebalancing that creates pressure in the market.
07:19 But most of the top holding from foreign still stay in the portion of quite large ownership.
07:26 Okay, we go to the sectoral movement.
07:28 Which led to the strengthening of IHSG 1.64% yesterday,
07:32 back to level 6700,
07:34 are sectors that are of course sensitive to the flower family.
07:37 Property leads in the afternoon session, but then replaced by technology.
07:42 Property, technology, and also there is the financial sector.
07:45 What is interesting to see in these three sectors?
07:47 Yes, the financial sector is still the main choice.
07:50 How as a mover, in terms of weight, it can also be said that the top ten,
07:55 the majority is from the financial sector, such as banking.
08:00 And then this technology will sometimes be a major concern in the future,
08:07 or in the next few years,
08:09 because of business and technology innovation,
08:11 it is a future that will be directed,
08:15 such as AI and then Artificial Intelligence, Neural Network,
08:20 this is a concern that will probably change many businesses to digital enterprises.
08:27 Therefore, this is also a choice that is beginning to be taken by investors.
08:32 If we look at the trade yesterday,
08:34 Goto is one of the top gainers.
08:38 We see that for Goto yesterday, it experienced a 14.52% strength in position 71.
08:49 Does this fit into your recommendation?
08:51 We will discuss the premier in the next segment.
08:54 Mr. Arya, let's take a look first.
08:56 And the premier stays in the market bus segment.
08:58 Thank you, Mr. Premier, for being with us in the market bus segment.
09:01 And we are still processing information about the chance of the premier,
09:05 in the middle of the FED that has held the Bunga tribe and IHSG,
09:07 which is reversing towards experiencing strength.
09:10 Together with Mr. Arya Santoso, President Director of the CSA Institute.
09:14 Mr. Arya, before we discuss further,
09:17 let's see first, the recommendation of your choice,
09:19 which we have summarized in the following graph.
09:22 The following data is the data where there are stocks like BBTN,
09:28 recommended by with support 1180 resistance 1265.
09:34 SMRA, recommended by support at 525, resistance at 615.
09:41 SMCB, 1550 resistance 1800 and strong.
09:47 BTC, 1220 resistance at 1340.
09:52 That is the recommendation from Mr. Arya this time.
09:56 There is no Goto stock, Mr. Arya, whose strength was quite significant yesterday.
10:02 Is it because the volatility is quite high,
10:04 then the financial performance is one of your assessments, or how?
10:12 Yes, indeed, one of the assessments from the bottom line performance,
10:16 it is not positive yet.
10:18 We see from the short-term movement,
10:21 there is a possibility of a turnaround story,
10:24 that when the performance is negative,
10:29 but the minus is getting smaller.
10:31 And this is a prospect that is a hope for investors who have bought this ME10.
10:38 And it is very possible that those who see the long-term prospects
10:42 will also start investing and have an appetite for this ME10.
10:47 So when the price is quite cheap, close to 50,
10:50 it is an interesting offer for investors who have a risk profile like that.
10:58 But not recommended by Mr. Arya?
11:00 Not yet, later if you want to buy on weakness, sell on strength,
11:04 to be a short-term trade,
11:06 can be later if the range is 64 or 66,
11:08 for those who want to enter in the short term,
11:10 there is still a possibility of strengthening to level 80.
11:14 Okay, other ME10 technologies are not yet, right?
11:16 For example, EMTK or maybe Buka?
11:19 Yes, EMTK is also quite interesting,
11:22 but we see that in the short term,
11:25 this can be an option for trading,
11:29 but in the meantime we still see that the weakness that happened
11:32 during October to level 486,
11:34 it can be used as a support area,
11:36 later the strengthening is likely to be around 550,
11:40 for the time being, like that.
11:42 Okay, so when IHSG is still in the category that is still discounted at the moment,
11:48 although many SAMs are also quite significantly discounted,
11:51 like Samsung Technologies, for example,
11:53 EMTK also dropped 21% for this October, right?
11:57 It doesn't mean that's the recommendation, right?
12:00 For the time being, if we look at it,
12:03 because there are a lot of interesting ME10s,
12:05 so we also see that when it's positive
12:09 and good enough to be stored,
12:12 that's where we have an appetite.
12:15 But for Samsung Technologies, we can see that it can be a buy-on weakness,
12:18 then in the short term,
12:20 for example, Buka is also quite good,
12:22 quite good in cash-streach,
12:24 but we see that there is no business diversification strategy
12:29 that is quite interesting.
12:31 Okay, is it more for trading?
12:32 Yes, for trading it can be.
12:34 So, Buka is at level 193 as a support,
12:37 quite close now,
12:39 there is a possibility of strengthening to level 220.
12:42 Okay, from the sectors that were sensitive to the flower,
12:46 the average is the pestapora,
12:49 strengthening the IHSG back to 1.4.
12:51 There is banking, then there was technology,
12:53 but you said technology was quite trading-by first,
12:56 then there is property.
12:57 From your recommendation earlier,
12:59 one of them is indeed SMRA property.
13:02 The performance is also quite epic, right, sir? SMRA?
13:05 Yes, so we also see that
13:07 there are not too many investors who have a taste for non-liquid assets,
13:13 such as property,
13:14 but we see that later in the next year,
13:16 in the political year,
13:17 there may be a new presidential election,
13:20 and there is a new cabinet meeting,
13:22 and after that,
13:23 usually the political temperature is quite stable,
13:26 there is already a certainty,
13:28 then the investors are willing to buy assets that are not too liquid,
13:33 such as property.
13:34 Well, the interest rate increased by 110%,
13:37 to Rp653 billion per September 2023.
13:41 The income also increased by 20.6%.
13:44 You said there is a target for SMRA at Rp615 billion.
13:48 What is the strategy?
13:50 If at the moment we see SMRA still in position 565,
13:55 current price?
13:57 Yes, at the current price, it is possible,
13:59 but for example, there is a weakness,
14:01 today, for example, there is a weakness up to level 550,
14:05 it is also 550,
14:07 or even up to level 540,
14:10 it can also be made an option to buy on weakness.
14:13 We see that the performance is quite good,
14:15 from year to year,
14:16 there is a fairly good growth for the earnings,
14:19 and we also see that it is relatively cheap,
14:21 the company is quite strong and stable too.
14:24 So we can say for the short-term and medium-term,
14:28 this is an option that can be considered.
14:31 Okay, the interest rate also dropped to Rp525 billion as a support.
14:35 Yes, indeed.
14:37 Well, if compared to the CTRA?
14:40 Yes, the CTRA is actually interesting too,
14:42 so from so many property emittance,
14:45 including the CTRA is also interesting,
14:48 we see now that there is an increase
14:51 from October until now,
14:53 the bottoming is at Rp975 billion,
14:55 then now it is above Rp1,000 billion.
14:57 The short-term target is around Rp1,195 billion,
15:01 actually there is still room,
15:02 but we see that the strength at the moment
15:05 when the rally has happened,
15:07 from Rp975 billion to the current level,
15:09 the short-term target is around Rp1,110 billion to Rp1,195 billion,
15:14 there is still a little reward for those who want to trade.
15:19 Rp10,000 to Rp1,195 billion,
15:21 that is the target of the CTRA,
15:23 but it seems that the rally is better in the SMRA.
15:26 Yes, that's right.
15:27 Okay, although the CTRA also according to you,
15:29 is still interesting,
15:30 in the last month it rose by 8%,
15:32 in the last week it also seems to strengthen significantly,
15:36 8.21%.
15:39 The land bank is quite large,
15:41 like Sinar Maslan,
15:42 Bumisatong Damai can also be an option for the BSDE ticker.
15:45 Okay, but in general,
15:47 what is the current trend in the property market, Mr. Arya?
15:50 Is there a reversal?
15:52 We do see that the current technical trend
15:57 is from July until now,
15:59 the trend is still weak,
16:01 so we see that the price movement of the stock is still decreasing,
16:05 but usually the stock movement precedes the real sector.
16:10 So when the real sector in the next year,
16:12 so around 3 months to 9 months on the face,
16:15 usually the stock movement will see a better prospect in the future.
16:20 So when we see that in the future there will be a price that will end
16:24 in the second quarter it will be over,
16:26 and the stock market is stable,
16:28 then the discounted METAN can be bought.
16:32 The best strategy is to buy on weakness.
16:35 Buy on weakness, yes.
16:36 Okay, from the many banks that drove the strengthening of the IHSG yesterday,
16:41 if I'm not mistaken,
16:42 the biggest is the stocks like BBRI.
16:46 BBRI rose by around 4%, right, Mr. Arya?
16:50 Yes.
16:51 That also made it because the position is very large, 3.52%.
16:57 Almost all investors actually choose BCA or BRI
17:02 because of the liquidity side and the weight in the market
17:06 is contributing to the IHSG in position 1 and 2.
17:09 BCA contributes around 10% of the market weight
17:12 and BBRI around 7%.
17:14 So those who are big fund managers or pension funds
17:18 or real estate managers will choose BCA or BRI as their choice
17:21 because it's very liquid.
17:22 What do you see in BBTN?
17:25 In BBTN, it's quite interesting.
17:27 We see a price consolidation in the range of Rp 1,180 to Rp 1,240
17:33 which has happened since the end of October.
17:37 And because of that, the selling pressure has started to decrease
17:41 and there is a possibility of an upside potential that is interesting here
17:44 because we also see the focus is more on property financing
17:47 where in the property sector, we forecast that there will be a recovery too
17:52 and then the purchasing power will also increase and improve in the future.
17:56 Therefore, there will be a continuous strengthening in BBTN
18:00 at least until Rp 1,265 first and even up to Rp 1,350.
18:05 But we look at the target resistance first in the range of Rp 1,265.
18:10 Okay, so it's not just the property stock,
18:13 but optimism is also seen for the distribution of housing credits,
18:18 especially by BBTN.
18:20 What is the opportunity of the third quarter?
18:24 We haven't got the funds for the BTN bank in the third quarter,
18:30 but we see it may not be too good this year in the third quarter
18:34 but we forecast that next year it will improve in the first quarter.
18:39 Okay, then what about the big companies like BCA, BRI, Bambandiri?
18:48 What is the strategy if the significance increases like this?
18:52 We don't have to chase too much for the short term.
18:55 We can just see later when there is a buy on witness, it can be purchased.
18:59 BCA is actually not too cheap, but for those who are holding a long-term period,
19:03 this can be a choice, it can be cost averaging,
19:06 those who buy routinely, the best strategy is still to buy.
19:09 So even if there is a further weakness, it is recommended to be able to buy.
19:15 Okay, and there are still two more shares that we haven't discussed, SMCB and Pegas.
19:22 But HSG has shown movement in the initial trading session today,
19:27 up 0.5 percent, continuing the strength that was directed yesterday, 6,783.
19:33 Later we will present the complete information after the next statement.
19:36 Pemirsa stays in the market bus segment.
19:39 Thank you, back with you, Pemirsa.
19:41 Time shows 9 o'clock, more than 4 minutes, the index of the joint share price strengthens 0.68 percent,
19:47 then it goes up like that, at the moment 45 points at 6,797.
19:54 It looks like it touches 6,800.
19:57 Then we see the price of the US dollar exchange rate tends to strengthen at 15,800,
20:04 up 0.27 percent against the US dollar.
20:08 And the next is the list of stocks that a few minutes or seconds after the price strengthens,
20:16 among them are BKDP, this is a gainers based on value, up 18.18 percent.
20:24 MPRO 15.54 percent, FIRE 5 percent, GTBO 4.69 percent, MARI 4.29 percent,
20:34 PTPP 3.5 percent, Casamarga 3 percent, Gotoh 2.8 percent, and other shares.
20:42 And losers based on value are CARE, which fell 20.74 percent,
20:48 NATO fell 13 percent, LOPI fell 9.5 percent,
20:53 UDNG, which was just IPO a few days ago, also fell 9 percent, and some other stocks.
20:59 That's a brief review of Pemirsa on the opening of trading in the first session today.
21:06 And again we will discuss with Mr. Arya.
21:08 Mr. Arya, let's continue a little bit about the recommendation of the stock that was chosen earlier.
21:12 There is still SMCB stock.
21:16 Yes, SMCB is also one of the choices.
21:22 We see that when the property sector and then construction will also improve in the future,
21:28 then here we see that the price movement yesterday was also optimistic in SMCB,
21:33 the solution to build Indonesia, and now 80 percent is owned by Semen Indonesia.
21:39 So here is one of the interesting choices too,
21:42 when there is a good enough upside movement,
21:46 and we can prepare to take advantage of the short-term trading too.
21:51 The support is from 15.50 for the closest target at 1,800 resistance.
21:55 Okay, SMCB, recommended by my audience, and we see that today it fell 0.3 percent.
22:03 Don't worry, Mr. Arya, as long as it's still at the support level.
22:07 Yes, so as long as it's above support, at 15.50 there is an interesting consolidation level.
22:12 So around 15.50 to 16.20, it's interesting to be able to do the buying accumulation.
22:21 Okay, what about the infrastructure stocks that tend to construction, for example, PTPP yesterday?
22:28 What we see is also experiencing a strength today of 3.5 percent, this morning 580.
22:35 Is it interesting to build again, sir?
22:38 Quite interesting, because we see now that the weakness has started bottoming,
22:43 then there is already optimism too, like in WIKA, PTPP, ADI.
22:47 We see that it can be a choice too for buying accumulation.
22:54 Okay, but it seems that it must be vigilant, sir, because the direction reversal is also
22:59 still stronger than the weakness in October, it just rose today, this morning 3.57.
23:05 It's better to be careful first, sir.
23:07 Indeed, last week it seemed to have bottomed, so the momentum of the decline has started to weaken.
23:14 We see that there is already a boost, like for example, ADHI today there is also a continuous boost
23:19 after yesterday it was quite good, and we see that there is a possibility this weekend
23:24 there is a boost for the construction sector too.
23:27 Okay, the increase is really sharp, 4.46 percent, continue to strengthen for PTPP.
23:35 Okay, one more Pegasus, Mr. Arya.
23:37 Pegasus, there is indeed a weakening that is quite strong, from the level of 1400s,
23:44 then now it has bottomed at 12.20, this is a price movement that is also interesting
23:51 for us to do buying accumulation, possibly it will be a bottoming for Pegasus too.
23:56 In the long run, the Pegasus infrastructure projects will still be used,
24:02 even though we see that the performance does not grow sharply,
24:08 but it can be said that the business is quite stable, so there is a weakening of the price that is quite deep,
24:14 the price is discounted, and now it is a fairly cheap level to do buying accumulation in Pegasus.
24:19 But the performance of the third quarter is also down, sir, 36 percent.
24:24 Yes, that's right. So if we look at it, there is a decline in performance this year,
24:30 but not as if the infrastructure is gone, so it will continue, the sustainability is quite good,
24:37 especially since the price is being discounted. So for those who are looking for a growth story,
24:41 it does not look interesting at the moment, and Pegasus is always relatively small,
24:46 not too expansive, but from sustainability, it is quite sustainable and can be considered.
24:52 Okay, that's the recommendation this morning from the CSA Institute, especially Mr. Arya Santoso,
24:59 who recommends stocks, including BBTN, SMRA, SMCB, and also Pegasus and EASG,
25:05 which we have reviewed earlier. Mr. Arya, thank you very much for sharing the information this morning.
25:09 Good luck to you. See you again.
25:12 Thank you, Prisa.
25:14 Thank you.
25:15 [Music]
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