Labour candidate, Michael Shanks casts vote in by-election

Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election result will help set the political agenda in Scotland.

Voters will have their say in Rutherglen and Hamilton West today.

For Labour, this is a chance to demonstrate momentum ahead of next year’s general election. Victory would help show the party is back in action north of the border. Defeat would be a significant blow to its comeback narrative.

In truth, most political insiders believe a Labour victory is likely in the bag. But the party won’t want to win by the skin of its teeth. The size of the majority will be important here, too.

This moment has been a long time coming. Margaret Ferrier won the seat for the SNP in 2019 with a 5,230 majority, but was suspended by the party the following year for breaking Covid rules. She was ousted by voters in August this year following a successful recall petition – the first to be held in Scotland.

Campaigning in the seat has been going on for months. There are 14 candidates on the ballot paper – some inevitably more colourful than others – but this is a two-way fight between the SNP and Labour. The latter took it in the 2017 general election before Ms Ferrier won it back for the SNP in 2019.

Sir Keir Starmer said the by-election will be a milestone in Labour’s “hard road” back to power if the party wins. “It’s about the future of Scotland,” he told activists last week. Labour’s candidate, Michael Shanks, recently told The Scotsman that party activists had spoken to more than 30,000 people in the constituency.

Katy Loudon, the SNP’s candidate, has accused Labour of arrogance and entitlement. "They think that they have this in the bag,” she told me last month. “That does not go down very well with people, when you bring in a candidate to come round your doors and tell you that."

Both candidates cite the cost-of-living crisis as a crucial issue on the doors. The SNP has made much of apparent divisions in the Labour Party north and south of the border over issues such as the two-child benefit cap. Mr Shanks previously said he would vote to abolish the cap, but Sir Keir has said scrapping it will not be party policy going into the next general election. Mr Shanks denies there is any disagreement between the two.

“Westminster only takes notice of Scotland when the SNP wins,” Ms Loudon argued yesterday. “Vote SNP in Rutherglen and Hamilton West to let the Westminster establishment know that Scotland must not be ignored. Let’s send the Tories and Labour a message that we reject their austerity, their cruel two-child cap and rape clause, and their damaging Brexit.”

She told journalists she was feeling confident. “It’s coming from the conversations on the doorstep,” she said. “I wouldn’t be in this election if I didn’t think I was the best candidate to represent people here. What drives me is making sure that people in this area get a fair crack of the whip. That’s the message I’m taking out to people and that’s what people are looking for.