00:00 Yeah.
00:00 Micron technologies, Q4 adjusted EPS coming in here at a loss of a dollar
00:04 and seven cents, but beats the loss of a dollar 18 estimate sales of 4.01
00:10 billion beat the 3.91 billion estimate.
00:13 They do see Q1 adjusted EPS at a loss of a dollar 14 to a loss of $1.
00:19 Versus the loss of estimate 90 cents.
00:22 So definitely a little bit worse on that guidance for EPS revenue
00:27 guidance here at 4.2 billion to 4.6 billion versus a 3.97 billion estimate.
00:34 So also not doing well here.
00:35 It did declare a 0.115 dividend.
00:40 Don't know how that's going to help them much, but I think what you're pointing
00:43 to here is such a important theme to catch, right?
00:48 It's not only necessarily for Micron, but it seems to me like things are coming
00:52 more in line with the fundamentals.
00:54 For a while there, we were riding story on that AI move, and now we're moving
00:59 back into the fundamentals where they matter.
01:02 And I think that this is important for especially newer investors or traders
01:06 to learn is that things kind of flow.
01:08 Sometimes technicals.
01:09 Lead sometimes story leads.
01:11 It seems like fundamentals is starting to take over.
01:14 It is.
01:15 And what happens is when the story cools off, which it has cooled off on everything,
01:20 the AI story is ice cold right now.
01:22 Not saying it's dead, but it's ice cold.
01:24 It's not making stocks pop.
01:26 Amazon has that little $1 pop on the AI stories of selling opportunities.
01:29 Doc goes straight down for three days.
01:31 So great point money, Mitch, when they start to reconnect with
01:34 fundamentals, it can get ugly.
01:36 Let's just give this perspective and maybe Micron bounces back because we
01:40 know this business is very cyclical.
01:42 This is a business that makes a lot of money in the good times and it loses
01:46 a lot of money in the bad times.
01:47 But just talking right from the call, we expect a challenging market
01:52 environment in the fourth quarter of 2022 and in the first quarter.
01:56 No, sorry.
01:56 This is in the fourth quarter of 2023 and the first quarter of 2024.
02:01 They expect.
02:02 Free.
02:02 Wait a second.
02:03 No, I'm just trying to find it here.
02:05 Sorry.
02:06 Sorry.
02:08 I'm on the wrong.
02:08 I'm on the wrong thing here.
02:09 I'm trying to find it here, but in any regard here, sorry, I'm reading from an
02:13 old report.
02:14 I had the wrong report up there, but anyways, they're going to be cashflow negative here.
02:18 So cashflow negative, which means they're burning cash.
02:22 They're still burning cash and they expect the challenging environment to
02:24 continue for the foreseeable future.
02:26 Didn't really give, you know, when they're going to start actually making money again
02:30 here, which is a concern when they're making money, they're making good money.
02:34 Like this thing was making what was bring up the earnings on the pros.
02:38 It'd be good exercise.
02:38 You can see how cyclical this is.
02:40 Money Mitch, can you show us the earnings?
02:41 Yeah.
02:41 For on this, take two seconds.
02:43 Mitch is going to bring that up.
02:44 Joel, give us quick technicals, but I just want to make my point how cyclical
02:47 the earnings are at Micron.
02:49 Uh, you had a dip, but you're quite a bit off the pre-market low.
02:52 If you were waiting for a gap fill, uh, from August, uh, you needed to get down
02:57 to 6439 and what do you know, when the pre-market they take it down to 6440.
03:04 So you're a buck 50 off that level.
03:07 So I think there's already been a little bit of a bounce here.
03:11 Uh, I'll use the bottom of yesterday's range is resistance at 6675.
03:17 That's a buck away and it just kind of feel, you know, the
03:19 fact that we're that far off.
03:21 I think that if you do get anywhere near that pre-market low, again, I
03:25 expect that to be a decent support to, uh, Mitch, do you have the, uh,
03:30 the cyclicality of earnings for this?
03:33 Can we zoom into this for us?
03:34 Blind people?
03:35 Yeah.
03:36 And just, I'll put a big here.
03:37 It's just, uh, it's taking away the dates here on the left.
03:41 That's okay.
03:42 We just know it's the last one.
03:43 I'm going to zoom in here and give you guys the last couple quarters here.
03:47 You guys see them on the EPS side right here.
03:51 And then the revenue side here.
03:52 And so you can see how they were actually getting a nice little jump here.
03:56 Uh, and this was getting up there even to 8 billion.
03:59 Now look where the revenues are.
04:01 Half of that.
04:02 Half of that, right.
04:04 And I think that that, that tells us a big part of the cyclicality of these earnings.
04:10 Right?
04:10 So you're going to see spikes, but you're also going to see declines here.
04:14 Very similar.
04:15 If you roll back a little bit further, look just a couple of years back, 8
04:19 billion, and then it went back down the four.
04:21 So it doesn't mean that it can't go back to 8 billion, right?
04:25 But it does show that it has its flow, right?
04:29 It goes from a spike of a high and then slowly trickles down and then comes back.
04:34 So that's something that we can be looking for in micron.
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