00:00 Let's take a look.
00:00 I always wanna learn a little bit more
00:03 about this situation.
00:04 Arm is an amazing situation,
00:06 but the quad witch arrival today, Joel,
00:09 and I never do well on these days.
00:13 I don't know how to find the edge in the quad witch.
00:16 What should we be looking for today?
00:18 - It's really more the buildup,
00:20 really the buildup going into it than anything else, right?
00:23 Because the, you know, the jockeying for position,
00:27 I wasn't here last week, but the rollover the week before,
00:32 give some volatility and you had that
00:34 if they roll over from the contracts.
00:37 I think that, you know, the biggest thing
00:39 is the opening imbalances and, you know,
00:43 way to catch the extremes.
00:45 Now, Dennis, you said that they flip a lot today,
00:48 but it's really more the buildup
00:51 and, you know, for this opening print.
00:54 And then I think the close probably
00:56 has a little bit more significance too.
00:58 It's the actual, you know, where people are marked,
01:01 but, you know, I think a lot's about,
01:02 I mean, they say $4 trillion is coming off the table.
01:06 I mean, that's a lot of money,
01:07 but it seems like it's old people short
01:10 trying to cover the way we've traded the last couple of days.
01:13 - Trying to predict the moves ahead of time
01:15 on these option expirations is not the way to play it.
01:18 Like as a trader, it's to fade the extreme.
01:22 So if we have some extreme movement off the open,
01:25 meaning a stock opens up really high on no news
01:28 or a stock opens down really low on no news,
01:31 those are often phased
01:32 because those are done for order flow reasons.
01:34 What I've always taught on,
01:36 especially on the third Fridays of the month
01:38 is sometimes you have this options,
01:40 you have institutional money coming in,
01:42 big player jockeying against their open stock positions.
01:45 And that's not done on any fundamental.
01:47 So it's just done for order flow reasons
01:48 and order flow move reasons often retrace, they often do.
01:52 So not all the time, nothing's 100% of the time,
01:55 but if it works 55% of the time, I'll make money from it.
01:58 So I just basically am a fader always on options expiration.
02:02 So this is the third Friday, I'll be fading crazy opens.
02:05 I will also be fading crazy closes,
02:07 meaning just going against the stock gaps up,
02:10 I'm short, stock gaps down, I'm long.
02:12 Again, trying to avoid news stocks
02:14 because those are more trendy.
02:16 You know, you get a stock gap and down on news,
02:18 it can continue because you may even punish people
02:21 who are playing that strategy, they didn't catch the news.
02:23 So you gotta be careful just watching on the news.
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