- 2 years ago
Matt St. Jean talks to Dave Archibald, author of the new book The Inches We Need.
https://www.theinchesweneed.com/
https://www.theinchesweneed.com/
Category
🥇
SportsTranscript
00:00 Hello and welcome to the CLNS Patriots Network.
00:06 This is the Patriot Nation podcast.
00:07 We've got a special episode for you.
00:09 I am Matt St. Jean here with Dave Archibald to talk about his new book, The Inches We
00:14 Need.
00:15 How are you doing, Dave?
00:17 I'm doing great, Matt.
00:18 Always awesome to talk to you.
00:20 This is a great book.
00:21 You're going to want to go out and get it.
00:23 It should be out now on Amazon.
00:25 Just a reminder, this podcast is presented by Fanduel.com/boston.
00:30 Check that out.
00:31 Dave, your book is called The Inches We Need.
00:35 It's talking about getting that extra inch to be a champion and win games in the NFL
00:41 and how important that is.
00:43 Can you talk about your background and what made you want to write this book?
00:49 Sure.
00:50 First of all, The Inches We Need, I would think most of the fan base would know, but
00:56 it's from the Oliver Stone movie, Any Given Sunday.
00:59 Al Pacino gives this halftime speech that says, "Football is a game of inches and the
01:05 inches we need are everywhere.
01:08 We're going to fight for those inches.
01:11 When we add up all those inches, that's going to make the difference between winning and
01:14 losing."
01:15 He's talking about the game on the field.
01:17 To me, I like the metaphor for off the field too, because as I study team building, I find
01:25 that there are so many different areas that teams are looking at to try to find that inch,
01:32 to try to find those advantages.
01:34 It's like the baseball money ball, but writ large and with 32 teams, and there's no small
01:42 market team that has to take the money ball approach.
01:46 Everyone's got a level playing field at the cap and draft capital.
01:50 They're all trying to find whatever advantages, whatever undervalued assets they can get.
01:57 I know you talk right off the bat, your first paragraph of the book talks about you being
02:06 the kid who'd play the sports video games and you're simming through the games.
02:10 You want to get to the off season.
02:12 That's the fun part.
02:13 That's something I can relate to, playing Madden.
02:15 You're trying to nail the drafts.
02:16 You're trying to sign for agents.
02:19 What games were you playing that came into this?
02:22 My version of this is even nerdier than you can imagine, because I never had a gaming
02:28 system that was good enough to run the top end games.
02:31 I was doing stuff like Earl Weaver baseball and front page sports football, stuff you've
02:37 never heard of, I'm sure.
02:42 I would just, that was me.
02:47 I'd start, I'm going to play every game this season.
02:50 After five games, I'd be like, "All right, this is kind of dull.
02:52 I'm going to sit."
02:53 Then I'm in the draft and I'm signing free agents.
02:56 I'm trading guys away.
02:57 I'm promoting guys to the minor leagues or whatever it is.
03:05 My wife is in marketing and she asked me, "What's your audience for this book?"
03:08 I kind of hemmed and hawed my way through the answer.
03:11 Then I was thinking about it.
03:12 I was like, "It's probably those people like me who are simming through the video games
03:19 to get to the off season, to get to the draft, to get to that nerdy stuff."
03:27 To me, it's kind of funny because it makes it sound like I don't like the game, but I
03:33 love watching it.
03:34 But to me, the game itself, I'm just enjoying it.
03:38 I'm watching it.
03:39 I'm a fan when it's happening.
03:40 The analysis comes later, whether that's digging into the Xs and Os or the off season.
03:46 When I'm watching the game, I'm just fanning out.
03:48 That's just kind of always been my perspective.
03:52 >> I personally find that very, very relatable.
03:56 That's kind of how I've always interacted with the game too.
03:58 I know you gave me a copy of the book here.
04:00 It's fantastic stuff.
04:02 Literally from the first page, there's good stuff here.
04:05 Let's talk about the first chapter here because I think this really introduces the core concepts
04:11 you're going to use.
04:12 The first question I have is you talk about how when you were writing for Inside the Pylon,
04:20 you want to write articles that were considered evergreen, writing things that would last
04:25 and how that was something you came into with this book, especially because Moneyball, by
04:29 the time Moneyball rises into the popularity, the core strategies are kind of outdated at
04:36 that point.
04:37 People have moved past them.
04:38 They were good for a time.
04:39 People adjusted.
04:40 How do you approach writing a book, trying to have an evergreen strategy for football
04:46 in a sport that's ever-changing?
04:47 >> Yeah.
04:48 I mean, that's the trick of it, really.
04:52 I quote Dan Hattman a lot in the book.
04:55 When I called him to talk about this project, he was like, "I don't know how you do it because
05:01 it changes all the time."
05:02 I was like, "Well, that's why I'm relating it to these core concepts that are always
05:07 true."
05:08 I think when you look at Moneyball, it was the idea that we're going to find the undervalued
05:12 assets.
05:13 Then the question becomes, "Okay, what are the undervalued assets?"
05:18 That changes over time.
05:21 Some of that applies to this book, but it really comes down to having a vision, aligning
05:28 the organization around the vision, and the owner is a big part of that too.
05:33 Then being different than the other teams.
05:36 Finally, you have to change and adapt because what worked five years ago might not work
05:42 now and might not work two years from now.
05:46 It's constantly moving.
05:48 The teams that are constantly searching for that inch, those are the ones who are going
05:51 to be successful.
05:52 >> Yeah.
05:53 You mentioned that pyramid that you set up.
05:57 It's a diagram right at the start of the things that you have to do to be a competent organization,
06:03 a good organization, and then one that's competing and contending for championships on a regular
06:08 basis.
06:09 I figured it'd be fun to look at some of those things through the lens of the Patriots, especially
06:13 because over the last two decades, they are the example of how to do this stuff year in
06:19 and year out.
06:20 I'll start with the very first one you mentioned there, aligning the organization.
06:25 This is part of your basic competence level of how to build a football team.
06:31 Where do you see that in the Patriots?
06:33 >> Well, I think the Patriots, it's obvious, which is Bill Belichick runs the show.
06:40 He's at the top of the personnel org chart and he's at the top of the coaching org chart.
06:45 There's never any disconnect between personnel and coaching because everything rolls up to
06:51 Bill Belichick at the end of the day.
06:53 That's not how most teams do things.
06:56 Probably there are a number of head coaches that you wouldn't want running personnel,
07:00 but obviously it's worked great for Belichick.
07:06 He hasn't batted 1,000 on personnel moves over the years.
07:09 He does.
07:10 But I think what you can say is that when he gets a player, he knows how to use them.
07:17 That's not true everywhere.
07:19 Later in chapter one, I talk about Calvin Noy is an example of a guy who didn't work
07:25 out in Detroit, who went to New England and had success.
07:29 Obviously there are a number of those players of the years, guys who were misfits in their
07:33 organizations that come to New England.
07:36 Because Bill knows exactly what he wants and because he's running the show on both sides,
07:41 it all works together.
07:42 >> Yeah.
07:43 I think this is where aligning the organization and having the vision really come together
07:48 because the alignment kind of comes from the structure.
07:52 I feel like in New England, because you have just one guy who's making all the final decisions
07:57 for everything, it kind of comes naturally.
07:59 Which like you said, it's not something that's worked everywhere.
08:02 I think you look at the Houston Texans under Bill O'Brien as kind of one of the relevant
08:07 examples of the Eagles with Chip Kelly.
08:10 Is there a reason why you think those versions of aligning the vision and having everything
08:16 come from one man didn't work or did work, has worked in New England?
08:19 >> Well, fundamentally the general manager is responsible for the long-term vision of
08:25 the organization.
08:26 And so in both those examples, you had a coach who was kind of teetering, who'd been a little
08:35 bit on the hot seat and he gets full personnel control.
08:41 Is he going to make decisions with the long-term interests of the franchise in mind or is he
08:46 going to make a decision to save his job for that season?
08:50 And when you look at those situations, you had Bill O'Brien, what did he trade two firsts
08:55 for?
08:56 That was that year he traded two firsts for Larry Mitonsole.
08:59 And I mean, he wasn't looking at the broader vision.
09:03 He was just trying to do what he needed to do for Sunday.
09:09 And I think that's the risk with the head coach in charge model.
09:13 I think there are a lot of advantages to it in terms of alignment, but there's definitely
09:17 a risk that if you don't have a head coach who's capable of stepping back and saying,
09:23 okay, this is what I need Sunday, but let's not do something that's stupid for two years
09:28 from now.
09:29 And Belichick obviously stands as someone who's fairly conservative by GM standards.
09:35 I mean, he's been pretty averse to pushing a lot of money into the future.
09:42 Right now they have almost no long-term financial commitments.
09:46 He never trades or rarely trades future draft capital and not very much.
09:53 So with him, it works.
09:56 But if a head coach is just kind of myopically focused on this Sunday, this year, what he
10:01 needs to do for his job, that's when you run into trouble with that scheme.
10:06 And that's where the owner support, I think, begins to come in too, because I think you
10:11 see in a lot of ways here, if the GM or the coach is scared for their job, they start
10:16 thinking about tomorrow and not next week.
10:19 And then you start getting into issues.
10:21 I think in New England, you win a Super Bowl in a year or two, makes the rest of the stuff
10:25 a lot easier.
10:26 The owner can get behind anything you do, and it gives you, I think, a lot more freedom
10:30 and flexibility.
10:31 But owner support is a huge part.
10:33 I mean, the fish rots from the head, they say.
10:36 And I think you've seen that around the NFL with certain franchises.
10:38 I'm looking at you, Washington, with what's been going on there recently.
10:43 But when you talk about the Patriots, I think Robert Kraft has been a huge part of what's
10:48 gone on over the last two decades.
10:50 Absolutely.
10:51 I mean, one of the things that I think about sometimes is like, what's Bill Belichick's
10:58 contract?
11:02 I have no idea.
11:03 I don't know how long he's signed for.
11:04 I don't know how much money he makes.
11:07 It just kind of just gets taken care of.
11:09 And that's what a good owner does for you.
11:11 All those things just kind of get taken care of.
11:15 I mean, obviously, they stepped in in more public ways at times, like when he lured Josh
11:20 McDaniels from taking the Colts job or Gerard Mayo this past offseason, you know, whenever
11:26 Brady had his contract up.
11:27 But mostly Kraft has let Belichick run the show and just kind of taking care of all the
11:34 stuff that needed to get taken care of.
11:38 And then a lot of time, I mean, it's kind of silly to say the owner is a thankless job.
11:42 He gets the like billions of billions of dollars.
11:46 But like, I think Kraft maybe doesn't get enough credit as kind of the third point of
11:52 that triangle with Brady and Belichick.
11:54 Well, it's an area where, you know, the owner is rarely going to be responsible for wins
12:01 on the field, but they can absolutely be responsible for losses by messing things up.
12:06 Good owners stay out of the way and let people kind of do their jobs.
12:11 And you have to have a certain amount of faith, which go back to when Bill Belichick was hired
12:14 and the whole, you know, shopping for the groceries and all that stuff.
12:19 You see all three core principles kind of come through in that moment.
12:22 We're going to have one coach and GM who's got one vision with the owner behind him.
12:28 And that stayed true, I think, ever since.
12:30 Absolutely.
12:31 Yeah.
12:32 So you go to the second level of the pyramid to be good to great, you have to be unique.
12:39 And I think this is one of those things that sounds super simple on paper, but in practice
12:44 is incredibly difficult.
12:45 And I think Patriots have been unique in four or five, six different ways at points over
12:50 the last quarter century here.
12:53 How would you even define being unique on the football field?
12:57 Yeah, that's a good question.
13:00 I think with the Patriots, it gets a little difficult not to kind of jump ahead and blur
13:05 this with the next core principle we're going to talk about, the change and adapt one.
13:11 But I think the idea is that you have to go into, you have to not be afraid to look silly
13:19 because whenever you are an outlier, you're doing something different than other teams.
13:25 People are going to look at you and say, Bill Belichick is arrogant.
13:29 Why doesn't he just do the things the same way as everybody else?
13:32 Why doesn't he just run the Cal Shanahan system?
13:35 Why doesn't he just trade for a wide receiver, draft, whatever?
13:42 And I think you have to have the guts to say, you know what, if we try to do things, I mean,
13:49 in a way there's a lot of humility to being unique because you're saying, if we try to
13:55 do things the same way that everybody else is doing it, we have to be better than them
14:01 to be more successful or we have to be luckier.
14:05 Whereas if we take a different approach, if we take a different strategy, we can be successful
14:11 without necessarily being smarter, without necessarily being luckier.
14:15 And I think it's in that be unique section he talks about when he started with the Patriots
14:21 in 2000, there were only two teams running the 3-4, it was them and the Steelers.
14:27 And so if they wanted a nose tackle, it was easy to get a nose tackle.
14:31 It was inexpensive to get a nose tackle.
14:33 And a lot of times those guys were like kind of cast offs because they were miscast in
14:38 4-3 systems or the 3-4 outside linebackers.
14:42 I mean, they got Mike Vrabel.
14:44 I already talked about Kyle Van Noy.
14:47 Rob Ninkovich was another guy like that.
14:50 And so if you're running a different system than other teams, there are going to be guys
14:55 that fit your system better than others.
14:59 But if your scheme is successful, eventually other teams are going to start copying it.
15:07 And now you're going to be competing for a lot more teams for the same kind of players.
15:13 And that brings us to the next level of the pyramid.
15:16 Yeah, the change and adapt part.
15:18 And to me, it feels like the NFL is kind of, it's cyclical, it's copycat.
15:23 Everybody's chasing after whatever the hot thing is.
15:26 So it feels like whenever a team gets one of those advantages, they are unique in a
15:30 way that works out for you.
15:33 Everybody chases it and the team that was ahead gets thrown back into the cycle and
15:38 you have to do it again.
15:39 So I guess this part is how do you repeat that process?
15:43 How do you change and adapt and be unique time and time and time again?
15:50 And this is where it gets tricky, right?
15:53 Because how can you change and adapt and have a vision?
15:57 And I think this is kind of the core of why the Patriots have been so successful.
16:02 Because I think in the Patriots case, their vision has the change and adaptation built
16:07 in.
16:08 Because unlike most of the other great coaches, like when you think of Bill Walsh, you think
16:13 of that kind of quote West Coast passing offense with the short passes.
16:18 Or you think of like Joe Gibbs with their counter runs.
16:23 You know, Belichick is not really synonymous with a particular offensive or defensive scheme,
16:29 even though he's readily acknowledged as one of the great defensive coaches of all time.
16:34 And I think the reason for that is because fundamentally the Patriots are a game plan
16:39 team.
16:41 That's what they do.
16:42 They game plan and they believe in game planning on both sides of the football.
16:46 They analyze the opponent.
16:50 You know, Belichick's dad was a, they didn't say pro scout, I guess, because he was in
16:55 college, but he was, you know, he's an advanced scout.
16:58 And so he's analyzing the weaknesses of the upcoming opponents.
17:02 And then you figure out from there, okay, there you get a backup right guard.
17:06 How do we attack that?
17:07 Oh, they're really good at passing deep.
17:10 How do we defend that?
17:11 Whatever it is.
17:13 And the Patriots want to be able to change what they do week to week to attack the weakness
17:21 or defend the strength of the opposing team.
17:24 And that's different than, you know, like a Cal Shanahan offense where it's like, okay,
17:28 we do outside zone and we're going to do other stuff, but everything is predicated on our
17:33 core outside zone.
17:34 The Patriots core is game planning.
17:37 And that influences their personnel too, because to game plan like that, you need smart players
17:43 who can handle the fact that the game plan is going to change week to week.
17:48 You need versatile players so that guys can play different roles week to week.
17:53 You need available players because if guys, you know, you see some of these teams where
17:59 the veterans get like practice rest days every week and they're not practicing, like the
18:04 Patriots have rarely done that because they need the guys practicing.
18:09 There's a new game plan this week.
18:10 We got to install this stuff.
18:13 And you need some humility too, because part of that scheme is going to be that some guys
18:20 roles are going to be bigger or smaller depending on the week.
18:25 So I think that's where you see the Patriots ability to change and adapt because suddenly
18:32 the overarching scheme idea of game planning, that always applies.
18:39 But now it's, you know, we're looking for a little different pieces for the kind of
18:42 offenses we're facing or the kind of defenses we're facing, but we're always looking for
18:48 these versatile guys, these smart guys, these guys that fit our vision.
18:53 And because we have change and adaptation built into the system, that's where we have
19:00 the ability to pivot as the league shifts in the way that some other dynasties or would-be
19:09 dynasties haven't as successfully.
19:11 - You mentioned Kyle Van Nooyen there, which you say that having a system like that with
19:18 the change built into it, does it allow you to extract extra value out of players who
19:25 are undervalued in some places because you are willing to shift what you do to fit what
19:31 they can bring to your team?
19:34 - Well, I don't know that they changed what they do to fit Kyle Van Nooyen, but I do think
19:40 he's someone who fit their scheme better because he got drafted into a 4-3 Lions team, and
19:48 he's not really a 4-3 outside linebacker.
19:51 He's a guy who, at his best, and I have an anecdote there about the poinsettia bowl,
19:58 which is a bowl game he played in college where he made a bunch of crazy plays in a
20:03 lot of different ways.
20:05 At his best, he does a bunch of different things for you.
20:09 He can do some coverage, he can do some pass rush, he can do run fits, he can shot crossers,
20:17 he can do several different things.
20:21 And if you don't know what he's going to do, it's something that you have to worry about
20:26 as an offense.
20:28 But if you put him in a role where you're asking him to do the same thing a lot of the
20:33 time, he's not as effective because he's not really built like an every-down-edge rusher.
20:41 He's not really a great enough athlete to be a coverage player all the time.
20:47 But if you have a system that lets him do a little bit of a bunch of different things,
20:51 that's where he excels.
20:52 And I think the Patriots have had a lot of success with those kinds of linebackers, specifically,
20:59 and those kind of players in some ways.
21:02 And it goes back to the kind of system that they want to run.
21:07 They don't want to do the same thing all the time.
21:09 They want to be able to game plan.
21:12 And sometimes that means changing what guys do game to game.
21:15 And sometimes it means changing what they do snap to snap when they have some of these
21:18 guys.
21:19 >> Yeah.
21:20 Well, I think the other example of something like this that kind of comes to mind is bringing
21:24 in like Wes Welker in 2007 and changing what you do on offense because you had a guy and
21:29 you had to defend him and you saw how hard he was to cover.
21:32 And you said, hey, if we take this, we mix it some of the other things we can do and
21:36 add some new things into the mix, we can make this better than it was before.
21:41 I think that's kind of been a statement.
21:43 I feel like there's a longstanding thing here with the Patriots.
21:46 They'll take some cast off from somewhere else, get a career year out of them, and then
21:50 they'll go to another location and a place that doesn't have the vision and isn't willing
21:55 to change and that player will go get paid and not be as high quality guy in the next
22:00 place.
22:01 >> Yeah, yeah, you definitely see that a lot.
22:04 And Welker, I think that was an advantage they had for a long time was the slot receivers
22:11 generally been the focal point of the passing offense.
22:13 And traditionally, those guys have been underpaid.
22:17 And I think we're seeing that shift a little now.
22:21 And that's, I think, part of why the offense hasn't been as strong in the last few years,
22:25 because it's been harder to get those guys inexpensively.
22:27 >> Yeah, that's a great segment.
22:29 We're gonna talk about the current Patriots, the offense, the defense, the special teams
22:34 through the lens of some of the stuff you talked about in your book and a couple other
22:37 things going on around the NFL.
22:40 After this word from our sponsor.
22:42 >> Get ready for the NFL season with incredible offers from FanDuel, America's number one
22:46 sports book.
22:47 Right now new customers can bet $5 and get 200 bonus bets guaranteed.
22:52 Plus all customers who bet $5 will get $100 off NFL Sunday ticket from YouTube and YouTube
22:58 TV.
22:59 Now is the best time to join FanDuel.
23:01 The app is easy to use and you can bet on everything from spreads to player props and
23:04 more.
23:05 Go visit fanduel.com/boston and kick off the NFL season with an offer you don't want to
23:10 miss.
23:11 FanDuel official partner of the NFL.
23:13 It is 21 and up in present Massachusetts first online real money wager only $10 first deposit
23:18 required bonus issued as non-withdrawable bonus bets that expire seven days after receipt
23:22 restrictions apply.
23:23 See terms@fanduel.com/sportsbook.
23:26 Hope is here.
23:27 Gambling helpline ma.org or call 800-327-5050 for 24/7 support.
23:32 Play it smart from the start.
23:34 GameSenseMA.com or call 1-800-GAM1234.
23:38 NFL Sunday ticket offer ends 9/18/23 no refunds.
23:42 Redemption and embargoes apply $100 off NFL Sunday ticket, not YouTube TV, YouTube TV
23:46 base plan required to watch YouTube TV.
23:49 Redemption requires a Google account in current form of payment.
23:51 Commercial use excluded subscription renews cancel anytime.
23:59 Welcome back.
24:00 I'm here with Dave Archibald.
24:02 Let's get into the current Patriots.
24:04 You mentioned slot receiver and the offense before, and I think that's probably the perfect
24:09 spot to start here on the offense.
24:10 Let's talk about it briefly.
24:14 From my perspective, I think we've kind of seen them shift from some of the smaller,
24:19 shiftier guys in the slot to some bigger slots in recent years.
24:23 Nikhil Harry, I think they wanted to play that role.
24:26 Jacobi Myers was kind of that type of player.
24:28 Juju Smith-Schuster, this free agency, they also draft a shifty guy into Mario Douglas.
24:33 Do you think that's a reflection of changing values there or is that just the guys they
24:38 happen to sign?
24:39 Well, I think that's interesting.
24:42 I do think it was a reflection of shifting values.
24:47 I think you saw them kind of trying to put together like a bully ball offense.
24:53 You know, they signed two tight ends to big money.
24:57 They drafted guys like Harry and they picked up Myers.
24:59 I mean, they had a really big group of skilled players.
25:02 And of course, they generally had those big kind of running backs too, like Damian Harris
25:06 and Ramond Stevenson, like Garrett Blount, you know, if you go back a little bit.
25:11 So I kind of looked at that and thought they're putting together an offense that they want
25:17 to like run the ball first and kind of have the passing game keyed off that.
25:21 But you know, with Bill O'Brien coming back, he may be, I don't know whether they're staying
25:27 on that track or maybe he's bringing some more of those spread concepts that he'd been
25:33 running in Alabama that Mac is familiar with from those days.
25:37 So honestly, that's something where I'm kind of curious to see how it's going to play out
25:41 because I'm not sure.
25:44 You know, I think some of the personnel they have now is kind of a relic of the previous
25:48 strategy and I'm not sure whether they're continuing on that path with O'Brien or if
25:52 they're shifting gears a little bit.
25:54 And it might take some time to see that play out in terms of what kind of personnel they
25:59 assemble on the offensive side.
26:01 With the offenses, there's the offensive line.
26:05 I know a lot has been made in the last couple of weeks and months of what the Patriots did
26:10 at offensive tackle.
26:12 I'm curious to get your thoughts on, you know, going with the signing three mediocre guys
26:18 instead of throwing a lot of money at one player type of strategy.
26:22 Well I think, you know, this is kind of a multi-year issue.
26:26 I think, I think like if you asked them 18 months ago, they'd say that Isaiah Wynn is
26:31 going to be one of our tackles.
26:34 And they picked up the fifth year option there and obviously that didn't work out.
26:38 He got hurt again and he was ineffective last year when he did play.
26:42 So I think that left them scrambling a little bit and facing this offseason you had the
26:48 option of overpaying, you know, pretty average players, giving them top of the market contracts.
26:55 So that's Orlando Brown or Caleb McGarry or now I'm blanking on--
27:02 Mike McGlinchey.
27:03 Mike McGlinchey, yeah, yeah.
27:05 So you could pay those guys kind of top of market contract in a, you know, an extensive
27:11 guaranteed money and years commitment.
27:14 Or they had the option to try to, you know, go inexpensive and just get by with some depth
27:20 pieces.
27:21 And I do think they needed depth.
27:23 I think depth is kind of an underrated issue with last year's offense.
27:29 The couple games that David Andrews missed, those were two of the worst games that the
27:35 offensive line played.
27:37 You know, when Wynn went down and they were kind of cycling through Marcus Cannon before
27:43 they got to Connor McDermott kind of settled that group a little bit.
27:47 I think you-- and also the other thing that happened in there was Trent Brown gets sick
27:52 and he didn't end up missing a game, but he was clearly not 100%.
27:56 You have to think if they had better tackle depth, he either wouldn't have played or he
28:00 would have rotated to give him more of a breather.
28:06 So they did need to address depth.
28:08 And I think they just kind of decided to try to get by for this year.
28:14 You know, this is a team that was sub 500 last year.
28:16 You can't address every issue in one off season.
28:20 So I think what they did was reasonable, but at the same time, you know, it might hurt
28:25 the offense a lot this year.
28:27 And I think that's why you saw them try to get a couple more options last minute, last
28:32 week and the Darian Lowe and Tyrone Wheatley Jr.
28:37 Are they going to find a solution between those guys and Calvin Anderson and Riley Reif
28:42 when he's healthy and Siddy So, you know, I don't know.
28:48 It's the have you seen the movie Clueless?
28:51 I had the I'm uncultured, Dave.
28:54 There's a part, there's a part in Clueless where he's yelling at his daughter for driving
28:59 with her friend and he says two permits do not equal a license.
29:04 So it's it's kind of a two permits equal a license approach to right tackle staffing
29:11 and you know, we'll see how it works out.
29:15 Shifting away from the Patriots just for a second here.
29:17 I'm going to bring this back.
29:18 But I think one of the big stories around the NFL in the last two, three weeks here
29:23 has been the Jonathan Taylor situation in Indianapolis.
29:27 And I know you talked in your book about the value of running backs and how much individual
29:33 running back may or may not matter to winning football games.
29:37 I know this has been a highly contentious point between I think fans and analysts.
29:42 There's a lot of disagreement there between those two groups of how valuable running backs
29:47 are.
29:48 What is your take on what's going on in Indianapolis?
29:51 Would you pay Jonathan Taylor a hefty contract?
29:54 Well, I think abstractly with running back value, there's kind of four things.
29:58 One is historically it was a glamour position.
30:02 So you know, people have that perspective on it.
30:06 Two is as we research the game more, we find that and as you know, the game changes, passing
30:14 is king and the running game has been devalued.
30:18 And so running backs are taking a hit there.
30:21 The third thing, I think there's a lot of the running backs don't matter stuff is unfair
30:28 because I think it could apply to all positions, all non quarterback positions on the field.
30:35 You know, people say, oh, you can get a running back anywhere.
30:37 It's like, well, you can find, you know, UDFA cornerbacks too or wide receivers.
30:42 In fact, those are two of the more common positions to find productive UDFA players.
30:48 So I think a lot of the specific criticism of running backs is kind of unfair.
30:55 But the fourth factor, and I think probably the biggest one with respect to the Jonathan
30:59 Taylor situation and also, you know, the stuff we saw earlier in the off season with Josh
31:05 Jacobs and Saquon Barkley is it's tough to re-sign running backs because they contribute
31:15 of all the positions on the field, the running backs, the most of the value they contribute
31:21 is going to be before they get to 25.
31:23 The highest percentage of value they generate is before the age of 25.
31:28 And also the lowest percentage of value after 30.
31:33 And so through that lens, it's just really hard to sign a running back to a significant
31:39 contract.
31:40 Even when a running back has been great as Jonathan Taylor has been, it's just a bad
31:45 bet.
31:46 And we see that, I mean, the Patriots picked up Ezekiel Elliott for a song.
31:50 I mean, Ezekiel Elliott was a great player when Dallas re-signed him at the age of what,
31:55 24, 25.
31:56 And now he's 28 and he's, you know, he was on the street a month ago.
32:01 So I think, you know, it's tough.
32:04 I can sympathize with Taylor wanting to get paid.
32:07 And I think he wants to get paid for the same reason the Colts don't want to pay him.
32:12 It's tough to be a running back.
32:13 It's a short-lived profession.
32:15 But at the same time, I understand why Indianapolis doesn't want to do it because the payoff just
32:21 isn't there.
32:22 It's a position where people decline fast and a lot of times the best years are on the
32:27 rookie deals.
32:29 And one thing I do find funny about the coverage around it too, is that I think, you know,
32:35 when Ezekiel Elliott, they signed him to that massive deal and then it doesn't pan out in
32:40 the end, a lot of the media attention goes to why would the Cowboys give him that contract?
32:46 We all know what happened to the running backs.
32:48 But then a month later, you see what's going on at Indianapolis and the media coverage
32:53 coming down to why won't you pay him?
32:55 You have to keep him.
32:56 And I think you mentioned that the glamour position of running back, I think that's part
33:00 of it too.
33:01 I think the glamour today is in fantasy football.
33:04 It's still exist.
33:05 It's just different than it was in the 70s, 80s, 90s.
33:08 Running back's the spot that gets you 20 points a week in your fantasy football team and is
33:12 the most valuable spot.
33:14 It isn't that way in the real game.
33:15 I think there's a disconnect there for fans, but bringing this back to the Patriots, they're
33:22 relying a lot on a running back this year to be a key part of their offense.
33:25 And for Andre Stevenson, one who's going to be up for a new contract in not too long here.
33:31 So if you're the Patriots, how would you approach the situation, especially because you just
33:36 had two running backs you drafted last year end up off the roster?
33:40 Yeah, I think.
33:42 I mean, I think it's the same situation.
33:46 I think it's difficult to re-sign Ramondre Stevenson because as great as he is, you don't
33:52 know what he's going to look like three, four years from now.
33:57 So I think it made sense to draft a couple of guys last year.
34:01 I kind of thought they might add to that stable this season.
34:05 They didn't even add a UDFA running back this offseason, I don't think.
34:10 Was CJ Marabola a rookie?
34:13 I don't think so.
34:16 So I kind of thought they might.
34:18 So I think that's part of the approach.
34:21 Something else I've noticed is interesting about the Patriots running backs is they tend
34:26 to draft guys who have been in timeshares in college and in a lot of cases, notable
34:33 timeshares.
34:34 I mean, Damian Harris played with Josh Jacobs and I'm blanking on all of them.
34:43 Sonny Mischel with Nick Chubb.
34:46 Lawrence Maroney played with Mary and Barbara III.
34:49 James White played with Melvin Gordon at Wisconsin.
34:53 I mean, so a lot of these guys were even like the lesser half of these.
34:56 I think Shane Vereen played with Javid Best, maybe.
35:02 So they come into the league maybe with a little more tread on the tires than some of
35:10 these running backs that have gotten chewed up and spit out a little bit in the college
35:14 game.
35:16 So maybe that's an argument for Stevenson having a little more shelf life going into
35:23 his late 20s than a typical running back, just based on having been in a shared backfield
35:31 at Oklahoma and also not really getting a ton of carries so far relative to some of
35:38 these other Bell Cow backs.
35:40 And I wonder if signing Zeke is maybe a step in that direction too.
35:44 Like maybe this guy can be our five-year solution at running back if we manage his pitch count
35:48 a little better than some of these other teams with star running backs have been doing.
35:53 Well, and I think if you're new in England, you don't mind sending Ezekiel Elliott in
35:57 for those high impact hits.
35:59 You can have him pass protect and save from Andre Stevenson from some physicality there.
36:05 You can send him in when you need one yard.
36:07 You just need him to run into somebody full steam, and that'll save Stevenson's legs,
36:13 hopefully, a little bit.
36:14 One more thing on running back, and then we'll move off it.
36:18 And this isn't even just running back.
36:19 This is a non-quarterback thing.
36:21 And you touched on this before, but I want to come back.
36:23 You'd mentioned in the book that I think there were only six non-quarterbacks who had any
36:28 significant impact while I was at betting lines in the NFL.
36:32 That was as of 2016.
36:34 I haven't seen a more updated stat on that.
36:37 So maybe Vegas has caught on a little bit.
36:39 But I think the general point holds.
36:42 The quarterback is the straw that stirs the drink, to use Reggie Jackson's old phrase,
36:50 and everyone else is just kind of along for the ride.
36:53 I think Chase Stewart kind of crunched the math on this a little while ago.
37:00 It's like, if you have a football perspective, if you haven't read that website, it's a terrific
37:06 site.
37:08 If you say the quarterback is worth twice as much as, or I think it was like half of
37:14 the total value of the offense, and then the other 21 positions on the field are all equal,
37:22 and all the other positions are worth like two or 3% of the value of what's happening
37:28 on the field.
37:30 So through that, yeah, running back might be like two or 3%, but so is everybody.
37:36 So I think that's where you get to kind of where I feel like some of the criticism of
37:43 running back specifically, I think can generally be applied to a lot of different positions
37:49 on the field.
37:50 And I think we're starting to see that in contract value.
37:54 Some of the quarterback contracts are taking up a much higher percentage of the cap than
37:59 we've ever seen before.
38:01 And it really isn't stopping those teams from being competitive.
38:05 Mahomes set a record this year for the highest percentage of a cap.
38:10 And if you count Jared Goff's dead money last year, the Rams would have set a record then
38:15 on the highest percentage of cap taken up by the quarterback.
38:20 So I think we're entering a world where the quarterback prices are starting to go up commensurate
38:25 with their impact and everyone else is going to get a little bit less of the pie.
38:30 So with that in mind, do you think that kind of non-quarterback drafts, free agency trade
38:37 moves probably get a disproportionate amount of coverage and hype compared to the amount
38:42 of impact they'll have on the field?
38:44 Well, not.
38:45 I mean, I think the skill position ones probably do and then probably not.
38:50 You know, nobody is like that excited about guard signing.
38:54 So they're probably not getting disproportionate or special teamers or something.
39:00 But I think certainly the other skill, you know, the receivers and the running backs
39:04 are still getting a lot of attention that I think maybe is not commensurate with the
39:10 impact.
39:11 Let's jump over to the defensive side of the ball here.
39:16 And we're talking about, you know, weighing impacts in different spots on the field.
39:19 I think the big overarching debate on defense is pass rush versus coverage when trying to
39:25 stop opposing offenses.
39:29 You kind of, you talk about how there's different schools of thoughts here and which one's more
39:34 valuable.
39:35 Typically, I think coverage is where people land.
39:37 Bill Belichick, you know, says all of it matters.
39:39 But this New England offseason, you know, you draft three corners in the last two years
39:44 and a bunch of safeties too.
39:48 Do you think that there is kind of a leaning into the coverage aspect as the primary part?
39:52 Or do you think they just think that they need more players there?
39:55 Well, I think with the Patriots specifically, a lot of it is about undervalued assets.
40:01 Like they're picking typically at the end of the first round.
40:06 And if you're looking for a star edge rusher, that position group is usually pretty picked
40:12 over in the draft.
40:14 You're looking at guys who have pretty significant warts.
40:17 I think the only edge rusher the Patriots have drafted in the first round is Chandler
40:21 Jones.
40:22 And he was a guy who had a lot of length, but I think he only had like four and a half
40:27 sacks this last year at Syracuse.
40:29 I mean, he wasn't like a big producer.
40:31 He's also not your kind of traditional edge bender type edge rusher speed guy.
40:38 He's more of like a big physical guy with technique.
40:43 So I think the Patriots have settled on for them, it makes more sense to invest in the
40:52 secondary and then try to figure out ways to get enough production out of the pass rush.
41:01 And they've done that in different ways.
41:02 I mean, the early parts of the dynasty, you had those great interior lines, those like
41:07 three forends like Richard Seymour and Ty Warren and those guys.
41:13 And then I think you saw a lot of, I talked a little bit about Kyle Van Noy.
41:20 You had some of those years you had different combinations of Dante Hightower, Kyle Van
41:26 Noy and Jamie Collins, where you created a lot of pass rush because offenses didn't know
41:32 where the rush was going to come from.
41:34 Like all those guys could rush and you never know who was dropping into coverage and who
41:40 was coming on the pass rush in a given play.
41:43 I think lately the formula has been more power edges.
41:50 Matt Judon is kind of in that mold, Trey Flowers is kind of in that mold.
41:57 And I think Keon White this year and even Ronnie Perkins, who just got cut, but he was
42:03 a fairly high draft pick.
42:04 I think with the exception of Josh Uche, they're mostly not looking for those like twitched
42:08 up guys.
42:09 It's a lot of like strong guys who can collapse the pocket in different ways where it's maybe
42:14 a little bit different skill set than other teams are looking for.
42:18 And you can maybe get some value there that other teams aren't looking for.
42:23 So to me, I don't know that it's Belichick thinks coverage is more important so much
42:30 as I think it's where it's made more sense to invest their resources just on the kind
42:37 of players that have been available to them.
42:41 And that's what we're seeing is kind of the product of that philosophy of building the
42:46 defense.
42:47 Going forward, that I think you mentioned Josh Uche in there, Anthony Jennings, too,
42:53 I think he's more on the power side of guys.
42:56 Both of those guys are up for free agency at the end of this year.
43:01 With what you know about the Patriots and building a team, do you think they have resigned
43:04 them and you think it would be a good idea to resign them?
43:08 Yeah, I mean, that's a tough question, because they really haven't been resigning as many
43:14 guys lately.
43:15 I think if you look back, you know, 10, 15 years ago, they they resigned Rob Gronkowski
43:24 and Aaron Hernandez after year two.
43:26 You're not even allowed to do that anymore.
43:29 Now you have to wait three years.
43:31 And when you have to wait three years and rookies hit free agency after year four, it
43:37 used to be you could sign up to like six year contracts as rookies.
43:42 You know, they only have to slide through one year before they hit free agency.
43:46 So I think players know that agents know that.
43:49 And I think it's hard to get those kind of hometown discount type deals like that.
43:54 I mean, the Patriots, Gronk was one of the great values in the whole sport for a long
43:59 time.
44:00 And so I think what we've seen is the Patriots only resigning guys who are willing to take
44:07 a little bit of a discount.
44:08 They got one with Shaq Mason for a while or guys who are kind of in that like next tier
44:14 down like Juwan Bentley or Jonathan Jones.
44:18 They keep bringing back.
44:19 And so as we face this offseason, and I think Anfernee Jennings is very much in that mold.
44:24 And so it'd be, you know, not at all surprising to see like a modest deal for Anfernee Jennings.
44:31 I think when you look at Uche and you didn't mention them, but obviously you mentioned
44:37 to me by email earlier, Kyle Duggar and Michael Nwenu, who are, you know, at the top of their
44:44 positions and, you know, contracts that are probably going to be eight figures.
44:50 It's a little harder to see what they're going to do.
44:55 The last like great offensive player they drafted, Joe Tooney, ended up walking in free
44:59 agency.
45:01 So if Joe Tooney walks, does that mean like who are they going to resign if they're going
45:05 to let Joe Tooney go?
45:07 It's kind of tough.
45:08 On the other hand, they do have a ton of money to spend.
45:10 I mean, they have like one of the highest cap figures for 2024 and 2025.
45:16 They have almost no long-term financial outlay.
45:19 Yeah, I think as of today and over the cap, it's like $116 million for next offseason
45:25 at this point, which you mentioned, you know, haven't resigned any offensive guys in a while.
45:29 If you're not resigning your talent, that's how you end up with those huge amounts of
45:35 cap space.
45:38 And the thing I will say in favor of them resigning or with an idea that they might
45:44 resign on Wennu and Duggar especially is while those guys might sign deals that are at the
45:49 top of those positional markets, those are positional markets that are lower tier than
45:55 some of the more expensive markets.
45:57 So you're talking about a guard and a safety.
45:59 They're going to make a lot less than like your top offensive tackle or your top wide
46:05 receiver or cornerback or something.
46:07 So maybe they're willing to go to the tops of those markets.
46:10 I mean, they did it for Devin McCordy.
46:13 They did it for Logan Mankins.
46:15 I don't think, you know, Duggar or Wennu are in those stratospheres.
46:20 But I think those are positional markets where they're more likely to bring guys back, which
46:26 is why I think when you look at Uche, it gets a little more difficult because that tends
46:30 to be a positional market where guys get paid more than the Patriots are typically willing
46:36 to go.
46:37 And obviously he's difficult here because his best production came in a short window
46:42 at the end of last season.
46:43 It's tough to even project that forward right now.
46:46 I think it's tough to assign a value to him at all for those contract negotiations.
46:51 I know we're over 45 minutes here.
46:54 So we're going to wrap up with two last bits.
46:57 First thing, we got to touch on special teams here.
47:00 And I did think it's interesting.
47:01 You talk about this at the end of your book, how 20% of the value in a football game or
47:07 the ability to win a game comes from special teams, but it makes up less than 20% of the
47:13 play.
47:14 So each special team's play is worth more.
47:16 Do I have that right?
47:18 That was the analysis that Brian Burke did.
47:21 I'm trying to remember exactly which year that was offhand.
47:24 So that might have been before some of the current rules changes.
47:27 So maybe it's gone down a little bit since then, but I definitely think your average
47:32 fan doesn't give special teams enough credit for how much it can swing games.
47:37 And we've seen that in the positive direction for the Patriots many times over the years.
47:41 And last year we saw it in the negative direction a couple times with a couple of games they
47:46 lost on big kickoffs.
47:49 You only have to go back one real game to figure out where that bit, the Patriots, and
47:54 you see them attack at the soft season, kicker, punter in the draft, Amir Speed, who stepped
47:58 in as a starter on special teams right away, kind of projecting into the future.
48:02 Do you think it will continue to be disproportionately valuable to the number of plays on the field?
48:08 Do you think it's good to keep investing draft picks there and roster spots there, or is
48:13 this going to diminish over time?
48:16 I think it's hard to predict how much the coverage and return rolls are going to diminish.
48:21 But I think one thing that was interesting as I worked through it is I don't think these
48:27 rule changes diminish the importance of the specialists, especially the kicker and punter,
48:34 because more of the kicking game is hitting those 50 plus yard field goals.
48:42 That's on a significant upward trend over the years.
48:45 And so those big leg kickers who can hit those long field goals, I mean, those are points
48:49 right there.
48:51 And the other thing is, even with the rules that make touchbacks easier, you still need
48:56 a kickoff guy who can take advantage of it.
48:59 And I think that's where Nick Folk was at a big disadvantage this preseason, because
49:04 the average team was about 60 percent on touchbacks last year.
49:09 Nick Folk, nine percent.
49:11 He had three touchbacks on, I think it was 33 kickoffs.
49:18 And obviously we saw some of those come back.
49:21 So that's the thing.
49:22 It's like, oh, you don't, you know, it's one thing to say, OK, you don't need to worry
49:25 about coverage guys or return guys.
49:28 Well, that's only true if you have the kicker and the punter who can neutralize those guys.
49:34 If you don't have the kicker and the punter, all that stuff starts to become pretty important.
49:40 And that's where I think you see the Patriots investing in those specialists, because they
49:45 needed to get more out of those positions than they got last year.
49:49 And that's kind of the key to unlocking the value in these rules changes.
49:53 And bringing up touchbacks, that's a great point.
49:56 Huge part of point of emphasis, I think, for the Patriots this offseason.
50:00 Hopefully we'll see that actually pan out and help them during the season.
50:04 My last question for you, you did a ton of research writing this book.
50:08 There's a lot of you quoting from a ton of different sources in there.
50:13 Modern stuff, old stuff, putting things together.
50:15 I'm sure you came into this with your own priors, your own preconceptions about what
50:19 makes a good football team, what makes good strategy.
50:23 Was there anything you came into this process with that you did the research and changed
50:27 your mind on something or learned something new that really shocked you?
50:31 Yeah, I mean, I think there was a lot of that stuff.
50:34 I think coming into this process as a Patriots fan, I think it's easy to be like, and obviously
50:41 the success the Patriots have had, it's easy to think like, oh, well, the Patriots have
50:45 the right way of doing things.
50:48 And anyone who's not doing things the way the Patriots do is doing something wrong.
50:55 And A, that's not adhering to the core principles that we talked about earlier in this podcast.
51:01 But B, as I dug in on some of these teams, I think the Rams were a really good example
51:07 because I looked at the way they do things for a section that I think appears in Chapter
51:14 5 on the draft.
51:16 And the Rams are really aggressive about pushing money into the future in the ways that the
51:22 Patriots have rarely done.
51:24 They've been very aggressive about trading first round picks in a way that the Patriots
51:28 haven't done, taking on these huge dead money hits.
51:32 And I think before digging in, I was like, well, they did a bunch of dumb stuff and they
51:37 got lucky.
51:38 But when you dig into it, you realize like, this is a method to the madness.
51:42 I mean, there are ways I think probably they still got lucky with injury a couple of those
51:46 years, but I think they had a defined plan for how they were going to use these star
51:51 players.
51:52 They did some math on the value that they expected to get out of those first round picks
51:58 that they traded away and decided it was going to pay off making those moves for veterans
52:05 instead.
52:06 They did a great job, even though they didn't have a lot of draft capital, they made a lot
52:12 of picks.
52:13 So it'd be like pretty often you'd see like they had no picks in the first two rounds
52:17 and then made like 11 picks on the end of round three and on day three.
52:24 And I think they did a good job turning those into players and knowing what players they
52:30 wanted to get to complement the star players that they'd already obtained.
52:35 And so I think when you add it all together, you see like, okay, they're doing things very
52:40 differently than the Patriots did it, but there's still a vision.
52:43 There's still alignment.
52:44 They're still being unique and they're still changing and adapting.
52:49 And so it's a great example of how those core principles can apply to the Rams who are doing
52:56 things in a very different way than the Patriots, but they're both kind of following the core
53:01 principles of the book.
53:03 - That's a great way to leave it here.
53:07 Thanks for coming on, Dave.
53:08 Let people know, where can they find you?
53:09 Where can they find this book?
53:10 - Sure.
53:11 So the website for the book is theinchesweneed.com.
53:17 That is a link to the pre-order on Amazon.
53:20 Kindle should be up by the time this comes out.
53:23 The paperback either will be or it's within a couple of days.
53:26 My Twitter handle, I think it's on there.
53:28 It's @davearchie.
53:30 And so you can see all my musings there and any future projects.
53:35 - Definitely, definitely go check it out.
53:37 Lots of great stuff in there.
53:38 I'm going to be sifting through this, I think all season, looking at what's going on in
53:41 the NFL.
53:42 And you mentioned the non-Patriot stuff.
53:44 You got stuff on all 32 teams in this book at some point.
53:47 So you can see it from multiple angles.
53:49 I know this is a Patriots podcast.
53:51 You can see some of this stuff and the way it works in other organizations, which is
53:54 very interesting.
53:55 Thanks again for coming on, Dave.
53:59 Definitely go buy that and we will see you next time.
Recommended
11:34
|
Up next
13:27
1:44:24
1:33:41
Be the first to comment