00:00 Good morning, Rula.
00:02 Yes, Jackson Hole has always been the source of information about the next moves in the
00:09 financial policy.
00:11 Some things were promised to announce the victories, but I think this time some things
00:18 may be different.
00:20 I think what is necessary now in terms of the economic volatility in the economy, I think
00:26 Jackson Hole may not be enough to be the source of information about what may be happening
00:32 in the markets in the coming period or in the financial policy in the coming period.
00:36 Yes, Jerome Powell will speak on Friday about what I think may be a hot topic this time.
00:41 There may be some balance in the markets, some balance to know that the financial policy,
00:47 the rising numbers, may record rises in the coming period and that there is a possibility
00:52 of raising the interest rates one still on the table of the US Federal Reserve.
00:56 When we look at the economic figures, I think that the US Federal Reserve does not have
01:01 what is offered in the coming periods in terms of the financial policy.
01:05 So, raising the interest rate one may not have a strong effect in terms of the economy.
01:11 No, because the markets may pass in the coming period, since the balance sheets began to
01:16 move in a horizontal way in the past period.
01:19 So, I think the balance sheets explain that the possibility of raising the interest rates
01:23 for a longer period of time, for other rises, may be in the markets in terms of the coming
01:28 economic figures.
01:30 So, I think Jerome Powell's approach may be a hot topic.
01:34 Data-dependent, as we are used to, may be Jerome Powell's biggest term, depending on
01:39 the coming economic figures, which he does not know the directions in the coming period.
01:43 And I think that other central banks may also go to the same currency.
01:48 Yes.
01:49 Ahmed, we are now looking at China.
01:53 The People's Bank of China is still on the table of the US Federal Reserve.
01:58 This time, the interest rate for the loan is reduced for a year.
02:03 But the reductions seem to be very simple.
02:07 How much effect can it have, especially since the market is expecting more?
02:13 Yes, when we look at the problem of China, there are several problems in the Chinese economy.
02:19 We do not disagree at all that the Chinese economy is a strong economy, but it is currently
02:23 a sick economy.
02:24 The inflation for the inflation figures, the inflation for the products indicators,
02:28 requires cheap money, it needs to be able to be spent in the markets.
02:32 Yes, the reduction of the interest rate, the source today was expecting that the LPR would
02:38 be reduced for five years, the loan instruments for five years, that the interest rate would
02:43 be reduced, especially in an attempt to pay off the real estate.
02:47 Paying off the real estate is very important, especially since there are major problems
02:51 in the real estate sector.
02:53 Evergrande, on the one hand, was previously, and Friday, has increased in the last period.
02:58 Country Garden, also from the companies that are still facing problems with their bonds.
03:03 I believe that cheap money, the support of financial companies, may be a basic demand
03:09 for China.
03:10 I believe that the Chinese bank's ambition has not been fulfilled.
03:14 The reduction of interest rates in the coming period, especially for the five-year loan instruments,
03:18 if they really want to support the real estate sector, which accounts for about 20% of the
03:23 total market share.
03:24 I believe that they do not have a solution.
03:26 The reduction of interest rates in the coming period may be a basic demand for the People's
03:30 Bank of China, and why not support the financial companies, which is very important, especially
03:35 because it may be a basis for supporting the economy with cheap money.
03:40 It may be useful to raise interest rates to get out of the recession.
03:45 But here, the fear is the loss of control over the Chinese yuan.
03:51 Okay, and as regards Ahmed's gold, everyone is asking about gold.
03:56 He says that he had his gold levels in five weeks, and there was a clear direction from
04:01 the individuals to keep the gold for five months, not five weeks.
04:07 Now, it is being modified, but is the opportunity still available to buy gold?
04:13 Yes, I have previously said that technical or artistic levels of 1950 are considered
04:20 very important.
04:22 The foundations, when we look at them, the basis of the bonds may be the attraction to
04:27 the investment.
04:28 So, getting out of gold investments, to go out to more secure investments, the basis of
04:33 the bonds, was the main source of gold returns on the one hand.
04:37 On the other hand, when we look at the foundations in full, the reduction of interest rates,
04:42 which may be the strong attraction to pay the gold prices, may be delayed until 2024.
04:47 Therefore, I think that four months may be a temporary exchange for gold to negative
04:53 exchanges, as I have previously pointed out.
04:56 Even the problem of the ghost of the run-up may have disappeared recently in the markets.
05:01 When the fear of the run-up occurs, the safe haven for gold may be positive exchanges.
05:06 But with the elimination of these basics, I think that the possibility of negative gold
05:11 exchanges is still available for the markets.
05:14 As I mentioned, Yeroula, it reminds me of 2013, when the gold prices were reduced,
05:20 individuals were invested in gold purchases.
05:24 The measures were big, I think, in 2013 on gold purchases, and they gave gold positive
05:31 exchanges.
05:32 But the situation, I think, is different now.
05:35 I think that gold exchanges may reach the levels of 1850-1840 in the coming period, if
05:42 the gold exchanges continue to be as low as 1930 as a resistance to gold exchanges on the
05:48 medium-term.
05:49 Yes.
05:50 Ahmed, what will be the role of oil movements in the near future, in light of the current
05:56 global economic situation, we are talking about the real demand and supply, and between
06:01 OPEC+ interventions?
06:02 Yes, well, I think that China's issue may be a major driving force.
06:08 When we find the negative performance of the Chinese economy, it may give some fears
06:15 about oil in the coming period.
06:17 Fears that the Chinese demand, the global demand, may record some decreases.
06:23 We have not touched on this issue currently, we have not touched on the current negative
06:27 fluctuations in oil, because the global demand evaluations, as mentioned, the global demand
06:32 is the highest period, even if it is a reduction in the oil reserves in the past period, so
06:37 it gave some relief to the oil exchanges.
06:40 I still lean towards positive oil exchanges, especially when the West Texas oil price is
06:46 at the highest levels of 78, which is good.
06:48 But, good, I would like to direct the question to you, you are very interested in the oil
06:53 exchanges, so I would like to hear your opinion on the oil exchanges in the coming period.
06:56 I swear, Ahmed, I have two trucks on the road now, and therefore, the interest is in
07:03 the oil exchanges, so we will wait and see what happens.
07:08 I swear, even if the tank of gas is full, there is no reserve in the car.
07:12 Thank you, Ahmed, you were with us from the capital of Jordan, Amman.
07:18 the online.
07:18 [BLANK_AUDIO]
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