00:00 There are a few sayings in the market and this one's quite popular.
00:04 Whether or not it has panned out is another question.
00:08 But sell in May and go away is an adage that is quite familiar to a lot of people that
00:13 have been in the markets for long enough.
00:15 And this is something that I would like the two individuals that are joining me today
00:20 to debate because I've seen a very interesting set of arguments on both sides.
00:26 And I would, am I right in saying that Neeraj you're saying this may not come to pass?
00:31 And what do you, no, it's the other way around.
00:36 Samina is saying that this may not come to pass.
00:38 It may be positive.
00:39 We're just discussing it.
00:40 No, no, no.
00:41 We're not taking sides.
00:42 It has to be a pro and against.
00:44 So one of you have to take a pro and one of you have to take an against.
00:47 You're going pro?
00:48 No, you're going pro.
00:49 No, no, actually the way we are trying to do this is I'm talking a lot more about what
00:54 global factors might be doing.
00:55 So fair enough.
00:56 What it's going to be is sell in May and go away.
01:00 Does not happen this time is what Samina is saying.
01:04 And what you're saying is that…
01:05 My argument is just that, that it may not work this time around as well on the global
01:09 side even if Samina is saying that it will work, it will not work on the local.
01:12 I'll put the reasons why.
01:13 You know, we'll let you decide.
01:14 How about that?
01:15 You decide the conclusion of this conversation.
01:16 Okay, fine.
01:17 Let's make it quick.
01:18 But yeah, just a couple of things and of course we'll talk about all the good things which
01:22 Neeraj will bring in.
01:23 But if I was looking at F&O data as we go into a brand new series this May, a couple
01:29 of factors that did stand out.
01:31 Now remember these are just data points which may or may not stand as we go into the month
01:37 but definitely worth the mention.
01:39 One of them is April rollovers which have been fairly healthy actually didn't see,
01:44 were lower than what we saw in the previous month and worse is what we've seen in the
01:48 last three months.
01:49 For example, your April rollover number was 65.12 versus nearly 70% in March versus 72%
01:58 in the month of Jan.
01:59 So what I'm trying to say is that bulls were not feeling as aggressive at the start of
02:03 the May series.
02:04 Along with that, markets are bracing for some volatility.
02:08 Remember you've got these big events that are lined up, of course local elections being
02:11 the biggest one for us.
02:13 Rollover cost also were much lower.
02:15 So not much lower but there were definitely more than half the rollover cost that we've
02:19 historically seen at 0.3% versus a three-month average of 0.72.
02:24 Apart from that, the long-shot ratio of FIs which with a disclaimer is looked very different
02:30 yesterday but at the start of the month the bias was on the short side.
02:34 So traders, FIs were a little more cautious.
02:36 At the start of April you mean?
02:37 At the start of May, we are at the start of May, right?
02:40 Yeah but you're saying now.
02:41 So as we go into May, at the end of the April series rather, we were seeing the long-shot
02:48 ratio biased towards the short side.
02:50 So all that made it seem like May could be a difficult month.
02:54 You've also got a whole bunch of events.
02:56 So you've got your elections, you've got the US Federal Reserve, FOMC meet, you've got
03:00 some of those quarter earnings.
03:01 Geopolitical while in the back burner yet is tough to call, right?
03:05 I mean it's almost impossible to decide who decides to go after whom, what comes out of
03:09 this and of course it's the China factor which the sleeping dragon has woken up but whether
03:14 or not that's going to cause problems for us is anybody's guess but historically and
03:19 this is what Neeraj is going to also agree with me on, every election May has actually
03:24 been phenomenal for the markets.
03:26 You don't need me to agree.
03:27 Data needs to agree with you.
03:29 And actually to add to that which we'll substantiate, we saw this yesterday where Bank Nifty took
03:34 the lead and again historically in an election year, Bank Nifty does better than the index.
03:41 So those are prime, and you primarily talked about the domestic factor.
03:44 I am on the fence.
03:45 I'm just going to make this clear.
03:46 I'm on the fence.
03:47 That's the easy one.
03:48 I can say I'm on the fence too.
03:49 No, no, you're wise.
03:50 You're a positive wise.
03:51 Guys, it's just, this is an old saying, sell in May and go away.
03:55 Another very old saying is that the hottest place in hell is reserved for those who sit
04:00 in the fence.
04:01 Thanks, Alex, just in case.
04:03 Since I'm going to heaven, I take a stance.
04:08 So the question only is whether sell in May and go away works or no.
04:12 Now typically as has been seen on the global markets at least, this usually happens when
04:17 there is a very good rally or a very strong rally ahead of May.
04:21 Global markets, US markets in particular, and this time around it hasn't quite happened.
04:24 So in some sense it's not been a red hot rally.
04:28 Usually that used to be the case when, and then the markets used to come off.
04:32 So what are the known devils, right?
04:34 Expectations of a rate cut have been pushed out, but it's a known devil because this is,
04:41 no, let's first talk of the possible, okay, these are not the possible market triggers.
04:46 These are the known devils.
04:47 So I think we've got the caption wrong.
04:49 But the point is these are the known devils that expectations of a rate cuts, postpone
04:54 and reduce.
04:55 That's part one.
04:56 The strength of the US economy is resulting in higher yields.
04:59 Higher yields is a known devil.
05:00 Everybody knows that this is the case, right?
05:03 The benchmark US oil futures have risen by over 15 to 20 percent, a known devil.
05:07 We know that that is happening, right?
05:09 And that's around us.
05:10 And the threat of China invading Taiwan, widening Middle East war and more geopolitical conflicts,
05:15 known devils.
05:16 So excuse me again, these are not possible market triggers.
05:19 These are the known devils that the market has had to contend with and know about it.
05:24 Now the possible good news are these, which are coming up now.
05:29 The sticky part of the US inflation, as per some people, including Ed Yardiny, is not
05:34 very high.
05:35 And at some point of time, we'll surprise with the downside.
05:38 Downside that will come.
05:39 So that is one possible positive.
05:41 Tailwind.
05:42 Yeah, tailwind, positive, whatever you call it.
05:45 There is strength in the US corporate earnings thus far, which is actually auguring very
05:49 well for future valuations.
05:51 80 percent of the S&P 500 so far at least?
05:54 Yes.
05:55 And it's come out well.
05:56 And therefore, one argues that if those earnings stay steady and we move out three, four months
06:01 into this year, then the market start looking at 2025 earnings instead of 2024.
06:05 They follow the calendar year, viewers, so keep that in mind.
06:07 So that's the other part.
06:09 The higher oil prices is already getting a lot of shale oil supply to start coming in
06:15 again to the fore.
06:16 It was dormant.
06:17 It's starting to come up.
06:18 Does that help in the eventuality of oil prices staying higher?
06:23 Point number three.
06:24 Point number four, the US market multiples, as I said, 20 times, but steadily might get
06:28 discounted.
06:29 So in some sense, the devils are known.
06:32 The unknowns have a positive tinge to it if we don't see a proliferation of geopolitics.
06:38 My only point, Neeraj, is that while this is all known, this also makes the margin of
06:44 safety very low, right?
06:45 If everything is...
06:46 Any surprise events.
06:47 So, yeah, it could be viewed very negatively.
06:50 And also, while we may see a pretty fantastic May, which is what we...
06:55 I mean, after yesterday, I think anyone who is doubting that, including me, is now taking
07:00 a step back thinking, you know, this is actually looking like a very solid setup.
07:03 What happens after May?
07:05 While we may not have a price correction, there may be a very long, long time correction
07:09 that we'll have to suffer because the end of the day, even if it is a multi-year bull
07:14 run, not just for India, we've seen that in Japan, we're seeing it in the US, Europe is
07:18 coming out of the woods and so is China.
07:20 So I mean, and that's anyone's guess.
07:23 What we could do, though, is...
07:25 So we figure out whether or not...
07:26 Go long on the nifty.
07:27 Go long on the nifty, maybe, okay?
07:29 That could be something that you could interpret.
07:31 But we'll revisit it at the end of May to see if sell in May, go away, actually panned
07:37 out and what the path forward would be because we'll have the election results to talk about
07:41 as well.
07:42 Oh, wow, that's going to be a volatile...
07:43 I have a question here, and which is that post-May, something I was talking about, well,
07:49 if Prabhu Das Iradhar is to be believed, the nifty is hitting 25,800.
07:53 No, and I think I spoke to Harold yesterday, he said double digit returns in FY25 and I'm
07:59 thinking double digit for another year?
08:02 After FY24, yeah, that's phenomenal.
08:04 All right, so viewers, let me know what you think about what we had as a conversation
08:09 today.
08:10 Is there anything that sell in May and go away will pan out this time around?
08:14 Let us know.
08:14 Thank you.
08:19 [music]
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