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00:04L'esito delle elezioni di midterm, l'impatto sui mercati, sull'economia reale, sugli interscambi
00:11commerciali, prosegue la nostra analisi qua su Classi NBC con i più importanti protagonisti
00:17del mondo dell'economia e della finanza. Abbiamo in collegamento con noi James Knightley,
00:23Chief International Economist di ING. Sir, welcome to the show, thank you for joining us.
00:31So, first of all, I would like to start off this interview with the incredible volatility
00:37that we have witnessed in the past couple of days. It was an absolute rollercoaster of emotions.
00:46What is your point of view? What is your viewpoint? Was Wednesday optimism exaggerated? Was yesterday
00:52pessimism and sell-off overblown?
00:56Yeah, I think there's a range of emotions out there.
01:00On the first day, we saw a big drop in oil on expectations that this election result could
01:06trigger a diplomatic response rather than a re-escalation of tensions in the Middle East.
01:12And therefore, oil prices fell sharply, bond yields, borrowing costs fell sharply. That
01:17supported risk appetite. But then on, of course, Thursday, it all swung back again to will the
01:24Democrats clamp down on AI and technology companies and the pessimism there return. So, I think we've
01:31just got a lot of uncertainty right now. We don't really know what the president is going to do.
01:36And then we don't really know what the Democrats are going to try and achieve. So, there's lots of
01:42uncertainty. And I think markets are just reacting aggressively in what are very, very crowded,
01:48choppy markets right now.
01:51What is your take on the sustainability of U.S. government debt? Because, yeah, we have seen
01:59a probable change, a shift of power at Congress level. However, the debt will not disappear overnight.
02:08In fact, it has reached a new record of 40.5 trillion.
02:15Exactly. On the one hand, this results, this gridlock that is likely because the president
02:21would look to veto any extra spending or tax changes that the Democrats would do, and the
02:26Democrats would oppose anything that the Republicans would want to do. So, on one hand, things won't get
02:31worse. But on the other, we've got a pretty damaging situation where the U.S. is borrowing
02:376.5 percent of GDP each year. And debt-to-GDP is in excess of 100 percent. And there's nothing
02:44going to be improving those dynamics over the next two years. So, there's still a lot of problems
02:50in the U.S. borrowing story.
02:54You have mentioned oil and gas prices. The energy outlook looks a little bit uncertain. However,
03:02there was optimism in the days leading up to the mid-term election for exogenous causes.
03:09We have seen the prices of oil, especially the Brent contract dipping in the past couple of days.
03:18What is your outlook? And where do you expect we will fall in terms of a new normal?
03:27Yeah, I think oil, it's fallen quite a long way. I mean, we've fallen the best part of $15 a
03:33barrel
03:33since last Friday. So, this is some big moves on hope, really. We need to see an agreement coming
03:43through that not only leads to a peace, but also gives comfort to transport firms, shipping firms,
03:52to actually put their tankers in harm's way, as it were. So, there's a couple of things,
03:58really, that we do need to see. One is that confidence returning amongst the tanker fleets,
04:06but also this diplomatic solution. So far, you know, we've just got a bit of hope. So,
04:11the risk is that we do see oil prices, gas prices rising back in the near term before that agreement,
04:19we hope, is achieved. But medium to longer term, we'd still be looking for Brent oil prices to get
04:25back in the 70s, that sort of area, by perhaps the second to third quarter of next year. It's not
04:30going to be a crash, we would imagine, in the energy price market. It's going to be one of these
04:35longer, drawn-out stories, because we know that, of course, inventories remain very low for refined
04:41products. And this is going to take time to rebuild. Sir, talking about what President Trump
04:48might do in the coming weeks or months, do you expect a renewed escalation on trade tariffs
04:57or maybe on foreign policy that may reignite some worries within the market that a trade war could
05:10blow up? It's certainly possible. But if we remember what J.D. Vance, the vice president,
05:18said in his social media post in the wake of the results that we got on Wednesday morning,
05:24he recognized that the cost of living is a real constraint or a real issue in this election.
05:32And the population of America associate tariffs with higher prices. So this sense that Donald Trump
05:41could double down and go more aggressively on tariffs, I think there's going to be quite a lot
05:47of caution in the administration. They're trying to cement their legacy. They want to achieve some
05:52positive things for the US economy over the next two years. And I think the concern would be that
05:59tariffs would count against them in that respect, especially given with Donald Trump in his final
06:05two years, J.D. Vance, Marco Rubio are going to start positioning for that 2028 election spot.
06:13And so I think there is going to be more pushback within the administration against any policies that
06:20could perceive to be detrimental or damaging for the Republican Party as they look towards 2028.
06:27Let's talk also about inflation, because Donald Trump exerted a lot of pressure,
06:32both on Jay Powell and more subtly on Kevin Walsh. Now the president is a so-called lame duck. And
06:41do you
06:41think that this easing off of pressure on the Federal Reserve may have some results or may have some
06:48consequences? Well, the Federal Reserve are very keen to emphasise their independence. And they've
06:56already raised interest rates in September, defying the president. And there is the expectation that
07:03they will do so again in December. So I think this concern about Fed independence, I think that can be
07:11laid to
07:12rest now, because Kevin Walsh, he's got the job, he can't be fired. And so he wants to do what
07:20he can do
07:20the best for the US economy. He doesn't want to damage his own reputation to be seen as a puppet
07:27of
07:27the president. So I think the concerns about independence are overdone these days.
07:35Last time I checked the GDP now of the Atlantis Federal Reserve was around the 3.5%. So the outlook
07:43for the US economy, it looks strong or at least robust. What do you think the US, how do you
07:52think
07:52the US will grow in the coming months? Do you think this pace will be maintained, will accelerate or
08:00will slow down? Yeah, so the US economy expanded very rapidly, 3.4% annualised in the third quarter,
08:09fuelled by consumer spending, particularly high income household consumer spending. And of course,
08:16the US is insatiable appetites to invest in everything tech and AI related. Now, the pipeline
08:23surrounding tech and AI is very, very strong indeed. All these data centres, the construction,
08:27the investment there, I think that's going to continue to be a growth engine for the US economy
08:32over the next 12 to 18 months. And likewise, the high income consumer, they're really spending
08:40aggressively. And while consumer confidence reflecting the median American is under pressure,
08:46it's those high income households that are in great shape boosted by huge wealth gains over the last
08:51five years that are doing the bulk of the heavy lifting on spending. So those two drivers,
08:56I think are going to continue propelling the US economy forward strongly. We're looking for growth
09:01of around two to two and a half percent over the next couple of years.
09:05So just to follow up on your previous answer, on this answer, you do not expect a slowdown in the
09:12so-called AI infrastructure build out. Do you expect data centre to be developed and then this result
09:20in a trickle down effect on the rest of the economy?
09:25I think the risk for AI tech investment is largely on equity valuations. If we see concern about the
09:34valuation of the stocks and of course the debt that's tied to these data centres, if that comes into real
09:40pressure, if we would see a correction of say 25, 30 percent, that's when I become much more worried,
09:46because that would tighten financial conditions. You would inevitably see the big tech companies
09:52forced to really pull back on that investment spending. But right now, the market seems we've
10:00had a volatile period, but the market seems pretty full on in terms of this outlook. Because of course,
10:06the US, and this is felt very broadly, maintaining a lead in technology and AI is seen of paramount
10:13importance, not only from an economic growth perspective vis-a-vis China, but also from a national
10:19security perspective vis-a-vis China as well. So the appetite from both government and business to keep going
10:26on this area is very, very strong indeed.
10:29And lastly, sir, to wrap up this interview, is there enough capital in the world, both for hyperscalers and to
10:38to satisfy their hunger for more capex and also for governments because their borrowing costs are
10:46shooting up? They need to issue more debt. So is there enough free money that might
10:52satisfy this hunger for more capital for everyone?
10:56Yeah, I mean, we've got to remember that US household wealth has increased by more than 30 trillion
11:03dollars over the last three to four years. So there is plenty of money out there. There's plenty
11:08of wealth and there's lots of cash in money market funds waiting on the sidelines. So if
11:16basically there is a lot of money out there. And of course, the US is always seen as a very
11:21attractive
11:22source for foreign money to come into the United States. So if the growth story and the investment
11:28story can be made positively, I think there would be very little issue about raising the funds required.
11:35Very well then. Thank you, sir. James Knightley, chief international economist at ING. Thank you for this interview.
11:41Goodbye.
11:43Bye bye.
11:43Bye bye.
11:56Bye bye.
11:58Bye bye.