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Gold and Silver prices have witnessed significant volatility amid falling crude oil prices, stronger US dollar and rising expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike. With US October CPI coming in higher than expected, investors are closely tracking the Fed's next move and its potential impact on the bullion market. In this special episode of Commodity Catch, commodity expert Anuj Gupta joins GoodReturns to decode the outlook for Gold and Silver prices and explain whether the recent correction is a buying opportunity or a sign of further downside.

Gold और Silver की कीमतों में आई बड़ी गिरावट के बाद निवेशकों के मन में सवाल है कि क्या यह सिर्फ Profit Booking है या Bullion Market में Trend Reversal शुरू हो चुका है? वहीं, Crude Oil Prices में गिरावट, US Inflation Data और Federal Reserve की संभावित Rate Hike ने Gold-Silver की आगे की दिशा को लेकर अनिश्चितता बढ़ा दी है। GoodReturns के Commodity Catch में Market and Commodity Expert Anuj Gupta से समझिए Gold और Silver का Outlook, MCX और COMEX पर अहम Support और Resistance Levels और निवेशकों के लिए Buying Strategy।

#GoldPrice #SilverPrice #GoldInvestment #SilverInvestment #CommodityMarket #AnujGupta #GoodReturns


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Transcript
00:05Hello and welcome, you are watching Good Returns show, Commodity Catch and I am with Arnima Javedi.
00:12If you look at the Bazaar, Bullion, Commodity market overall, then all the places are showing a little relaxed
00:18and the biggest reason behind it is Crude Oil.
00:23Now, the amount of volatility in the Bazaar, whether it is Global or Indian market,
00:29there is also a big reason of Crude.
00:32Now, when Crude prices are down, the Bazaar is celebrating.
00:36Commodity market is still happening, but in this episode, we will be able to understand this.
00:42First of all, let's put a few things on it.
00:46The WTI is in 86, Brent 92.
00:49The WTI is trading.
00:51It has been a positive impact on the Indian stock market.
00:56Although, the global stock market is a little pressure.
00:59The US stock market is a little pressure because there is a sell-off with AI.
01:04However, the commodity market is behind it.
01:09The gold and silver are both pressure.
01:13If we talk about gold, we are trading at this time.
01:16In comics, it is $4,55.
01:20The silver is $52.
01:22And the commodity market has been created.
01:25However, when we are trading at 11 November,
01:27when we are trading at 11 November,
01:29we have seen some recovery in gold and silver.
01:32But now, the pressure is now created.
01:34And the pressure is behind the pressure.
01:36There is no crude oil.
01:38There is no decline in its price.
01:40There is another big reason for US economic data.
01:43So, today, we will try to understand these factors.
01:44We will try to understand these factors.
01:45Today, Anuj Gupta Ji is here.
01:48Sir, welcome to Good Returns.
01:51I want to welcome everyone to Deepavali.
01:55Happy Diwali to you too, sir.
01:57And Diwali is trading at this time.
02:00Crude oil prices are down.
02:02The price of crude oil prices are down from the Indian stock market.
02:04The price of Haryali is in the Indian stock market.
02:05Once again, the price of 25,000.
02:07In fact, they are trading at the price of 25,000.
02:09In fact, they are trading at the price of 25,000.
02:10So, lighter price of 2,000,000.
02:11Sir, how do you expect the price of crude oil prices to make the price of the market?
02:17For the market and the commodity market?
02:19Yes, he is.
02:23When Trump was taking election,
02:24when we saw crude oil prices in crude oil prices,
02:27we saw concrete growth.
02:29After the previous days,
02:31crude oil pricesales were found relatively 19% or 20% percent.
02:40तो यह अनुमनदेक हो लोगा निचे आते वे नज़र आए और रात्वेक्वन निचे अते वे नज़रा है और सभी हूए
03:03कि वही अब वह उतने aggressive mode में शायद नहीं war करेंगे,
03:08वो Iran के साथ बात करने के ले तयार है, वो गही न कहीं,
03:12जितने भी Saudi Arab के निशन से सबसे बात करने को तयार है,
03:15और इस war को जल्दी ही एक निसकर्श पहले आना चाहते हैं,
03:21अब वो अपनी एक परिस्तिते को ऐसा दिखाना चाहते हैं कि वही वार जो हुआ हुआ बट अब मैं इस
03:28war को यहां पर ठीक करता हूँ नजर आना हूँ तो लग रहाएगी इस बार क्यूंकि
03:32का प्रेशर उनके ओपर डेफिनिटली है और इक प्रेशर में आकर अब वो ऐसा स्टेप ले सकते हैं जिसका असा
03:37हम क्रूड के प्राइस पर देख रहे हैं और क्रूड अगर आप देखेंगे तो अल्मोस्ट पिछले चार महीनों के लो
03:42लेवल पर आता हूँ नजर आदा है
03:45और अगर क्रूड के प्राइसेज में यह गिरावर जारी रहती है तो सर बाजार के लिए और बुलिन के लिए
03:51आउट्लुक किस तरीके का नजर आ रहा है
03:53अगर आप देखेंगे तो रूपी पर पड़ता हूँ दिखाई दिया रूपी अगर आप देखेंगे तो करीमन नौ महीने के उच्तम
04:00स्तर पर 93.78 के आसपा स्टेट कर रहा है
04:04तो कही न कहीं क्रूड के भाव नीचा आने की वज़े से इसका ग्रोथ होने की वज़े से जो हमने
04:10पिछले को उस दुनों में इंफ्लोज आते हुए देखेंगे हैं उससे काफी अत्तर मुझे रगता है कि रूपी यहाँ पर
04:14एप्रिशेट हुआ हुआ देफिनिटली जो �
04:15जो भी हम इंपोर्ट आइटम करेंगे यहाँ पर डबल आपको एक जो है पॉजिटिव ट्रेंड देखने को मिला है एक
04:21तो क्रूड के भाव नीचे आए है उसके साथ रूपी यहाँ पर एप्रिशेट हुआ है तो कही ना कहीं जो
04:25भी हम इंपोर्ट करेंगे या जो भी हम �
04:28को भार से इंपोर्ट करेंगे वह यहाँ पर सस्ती होती भी नजर आएंगी तो मुझे लगता है कि यह इंडियान
04:32एकॉनमी के लिए बहुत अच्छा इंपक्ट रहेगा और ऐसे ही अगर कुड के भाव नीचे आते वह नजर आए तो
04:50लग रहा है कि जल्दी ही कुरूड के �
04:52सिल्वर की जो चाल है वो फिलहाल यूएस से आने वाले आक्रों पर डिपेंड कर रही है काफी ज्यादा बुलियन
04:58के उपर प्रेशर है गोल्ड और सिल्वर दोनों के उपर प्रेशर है ऑक्टूबर का सीपे डेटा जो आया है यूएस
05:03में वो 0.4% सीपे आया है मन्त और मन
05:06बेसिस पे जो की जो उनका एक्स्पेक्टेशन था 0.3% उससे ज्यादा है कोर सीपे आई लगाता है तीसरे
05:14महीने 0.3% पे रहा है अब इन आक्रों के बाद एक बार फिर से फेट के गवर्नर क्रिस्टोफर
05:20वॉलर की एक स्रेटमेंट भी आया उनका उनका कहना है कि 25 बेसिस
05:28पॉइंट के रेटाई की भी पॉसिबिलिटी बंती रिखाई दे रही है फिल्हाल यह हॉटर दैन एक्स्पेक्टेट जो CPI डेटा आया
05:36है यहां पर रेटाई के बेट्स बढ़ गए है यूस्वेट की तरफ से
05:43सर्म्यूट है अब एक बाद जी अधिए डेफिनिटली 0.4% मन्थ और मन्थ बेसिस में CPI आया है बट
05:53अगर आप कोर CPI देखेंगे जो की 0.3% है अला कि लास्ट ताइम जो आपका इंफ्लेशन था मन्थ
06:02और मन्थ बेसिए वो 0.6% था और एक्सपेक्टेशन था कि 0.3% आ
06:10है तो इसका मतलब कि हाना कि टार्गेट जो एक्सपेक्टेशन था उससे उपर है बट जो पिछली बार था उससे
06:16काफी बड़ी गिरावण यहां पर देखने को मिली है जो कि कईना का इंडिकेट यह करती है कि इंफ्लेशन वहां
06:21पर कंट्रोल हो रहा है कि इंफ्लेशन ओ�
06:26पहुँ जाता है important role play करेंगे अगर क्रूड के भाव आने वाले 10 से 15 दिन और डाउन सेटल
06:32रहते हैं तो मुझे लगता कि यह डेटा है वो हो सकता है कि अगले हफते जो आएगा डेटा अगले
06:36हफते वो फिर अगेन आपको एक supportive factor लाता हुआ दिखाई दे तो देखिए अभ
06:55यह तक आपका जो inflation है वो आगे and control हो सकता है आले कि ऐसा बिल्कुल है कि इंट्रस्टेट
06:59बढ़ने की expectation इस time पर बहुत हाई हो गई है almost more than 80% हो गई है 0
07:04.50% की तो वो कहीना कहीं market पे impact डाल सकते हैं अगर इंट्रस्टेट बढ़ेंगे दिखिए यह एक चीज
07:13आगर इंट्रस
07:25वापिस उसको rationalize करना पड़ेगा और उससे आपको फिर बाकी जो में support आता हूँ नजर आगा अगर आप देखेंगे
07:30तो आज हम देख रहे हैं कि equity market में अच्छी momentum देखने को मिली है AI sector में काफी
07:35अच्छी growth देखने को मिल रही है
07:55यहां पर rate high की expectation बहुत जादा अगर हम 50 basis point ना भी लेकर के चले तो dollar
08:01strong हो रहा है dollar index इस समय 102 पर है उसके अलावा precious metals पर प्रेशर जो पढ़ रहा
08:07है इस समय gold और silver पर उसके पीछे की एक वचा dollar भी मान करके चल सकते है इस
08:12तरीके से अगर देखें तो अभी bullion market कैसी नजर आती
08:15है definitely उतना चान नहीं रहा जितना हमने जनवरी दोज़ाइशपवीस में starting में देखा था अब हम आल्मोस्ट दिसंबर की
08:25तरफ है means हमने एक moment देखा था जो साल के पहले महीने में था और हम एक moment हम
08:30देखेंगे जो साल के अंती महीनों में है तो यह कहीं ना कहीं बिल्कुल यह
08:37पहले जहान लोग काफी अग्रेसिव थे मुझे धियान है अक्टूबर दोजार पचीस से बहुत मार्केट बहुत अग्रेसिव था एक अच्छे
08:45मोमेंटम था हर भी बात कर रहा था अब उतना अग्रेसिव मार्केट नहीं दिख रहा है क्योंकि गोल्ड और सिल्वर
08:51के भा
08:52भाव 52-53 डॉलर पर है जो की 121 डॉलर तक हाई बनाया था गोल्ड का बहुत चारिया डॉलर के
08:57आसपास है जो 56 डॉलर तक चला गया था तो कहीं ना कहीं थोड़ा सा जो डिमांड कंसर है वो
09:02यहां पर देखने को मिला हाला कि हमें लगता है कि अगर इंटर सेट बढ़ेंग
09:19तो मेरा अल्टिमेट यह कहना है कि गोल्ड और सिल्वर में जो डिप साते हैं वो एक अपॉर्चुनिटी है क्योंकि
09:23हमारा ऐसा मानना है कि प्रम सापी तरफ से शायद अब वार को लेके इतना कोई खास अग्रेसिव नहीं होगा
09:29मुझे रखता है कि इतना कुछ खास अग्
09:42रिवर्सल की शुरुआत कि ट्रेंड रिवर्सल तो नहीं कहूंगा मैं इसको कि ऐसा कोई एकदम से कोई वीशेप रिकवरी हो
09:49जाएगी पिछले जब से एलेक्शन हारे है ट्रम साब उसके बाद हमने एक मोमेंटम देखा था पॉजिटिव बट उसके बाद
09:56रेंज माट अ
09:57तो अभी अब युट में और मुझे लगता है कि अगरेक्शन को फेट को वेट कर रहा है क्योंगी इस
10:05टीमेंट युट में टीज लोगों ने चुट की शुकार नहीं करी है तो अब युट की इस्टेमेंट और फैट का
10:19इंस्तांस इंप्वर्ण होगा
10:21that the elections after the election, the result of the Fed, what is the instance of the Fed?
10:26Because if the Fed says that Trump has no power and crude down,
10:32then it will be referred to the inflation.
10:34Then you will see the interest rate.
10:37Then you will see the next important event,
10:42which will be almost 8 or 9 December.
10:46Then you will see the interest rate.
10:54Then you will see the interest rate.
10:56Then you will see the interest rate.
10:58Sir, they will say that we will not increase interest rates.
11:01Now, of course, there are indications that we can increase interest rates from 25 basis points.
11:0750 basis points, Christopher Warrill is saying.
11:12Sir, if there is a high high 50 basis points,
11:14then you will see the immediate reaction.
11:17So, the immediate reaction will be sell-off or buying?
11:19Look, it will be sell-off,
11:21because the market is generally 0.25 to discount.
11:25But 0.50 to discount,
11:27because as much higher interest rates will increase,
11:30it will take time to cut.
11:32So, if it will be 0.50 increase,
11:34then I am expecting that you will see a big sell-off,
11:37about 100-500 points,
11:38or 200 dollars to sell-off in gold,
11:41or silver,
11:41about 5-7 dollars to sell-off.
11:45Ultimately,
11:45the Fed's statement will react a lot.
11:48How much will they become the stance of the future?
11:51The interest rate is high.
11:53That is not important.
11:54What is the stance of their economic outlook?
11:57If they say that they will say that they will be bigger 50%-
12:00but if they will say that they will start the next year,
12:03then they will start the interest rate cutting and aggressive interest rates.
12:07And then you will see support in the market.
12:09the global brokerages
12:12is very bullish
12:13on the gold
12:14on the goldman checks
12:16has a target
12:16for 2026
12:18for gold
12:18for $4,150
12:20but for 2027
12:22for $4,800
12:24for 2027
12:26for 2027
12:26for a bullish
12:27outlook
12:28for global brokerages
12:30for what targets
12:32are you looking at?
12:33Sir, immediate support
12:33and resistance
12:34for comics
12:35and MCX
12:36both for
12:38the target
12:39basically
12:40depend on the market
12:41momentum
12:42now we have seen
12:43banks
12:44$3,500
12:45or $3,200
12:45to be
12:46target
12:46and then
12:47suddenly
12:47election
12:48after
12:48$4,800
12:49to be
12:50based on
12:51market
12:52but yes
12:53if we have
12:53support
12:54here
12:54$3,800
12:55and $3,400
12:56are important
12:57support
12:57in
12:58resistance
12:58if we have
12:59talked about
13:00$4,800
13:00to be
13:00$4,800
13:01is a resistance
13:02zone
13:02we think
13:03that
13:03$4,800
13:04is a break
13:04then
13:05you'll see
13:05further
13:05if we have
13:06a
13:07blessing
13:07$3,800
13:09to be
13:09$4,800
13:13to be
13:16$3,800
13:17to be
13:18$3,800
13:20to be
13:20$4,800
13:22if we have
13:33$4,800
13:35will
13:35go
13:37long-term investors when buying will be the right opportunity for buying?
13:43Yes, it is the right opportunity because the fundamentals are clear that Trump doesn't like it,
13:49so it is sometimes an impact, and it is sometimes an impact that Trump doesn't like it,
13:55so it is sometimes an impact that you can see.
13:57So I think that those who are thinking about it,
14:01they can accumulate in their portfolio,
14:05some small quantity,
14:06if there is a dip, then they can accumulate more.
14:10So if someone wants to invest,
14:12I think that they can start here with 10 rupees.
14:16Okay.
14:17How are the targets for the outlook?
14:18Where are the targets and the support and resistance?
14:23The important thing is the industrial demand,
14:25and China has a slowdown with the solar industry.
14:34So the demand is not too long.
14:36That is the right opportunity to keep the economy,
14:36but the demand is too short,
14:39so that this price is only the right opportunity.
14:53So I think that the problem,
14:57as you might have to give us this amount of inflations,
14:57So that is a very supportive level, where you have to have accumulation.
15:00Higher side, 60 dollars break, then you will see a good recovery.
15:05Okay.
15:07And if, sir, 50 dollars broke, then what would be downside target?
15:11Because it is still looking at the 52 dollars.
15:14If it is 50 dollars or 45 dollars break,
15:17then I think that it could be 38 dollars to 36 dollars to the level.
15:22It could be that it could be 1,20,000 or 1,30,000 to the level.
15:25So this, the level will also be hit.
15:27What is the level of silver ratio?
15:28What is the level of silver ratio?
15:29Silver or the level of silver?
15:31Yes, I think the level of silver is over.
15:35Because I think the level of silver ratio indicates that with gold should be able to see the level of
15:41silver.
15:42The chances are that gold should be able to see the level of gold.
15:48Gold will be able to see the level of silver.
15:50Sir, there are some Indian data numbers that have come to discuss.
15:54the gold ETF inflows the number is a bit pressure to create this time to create a little more
16:00than 4450 crore. If we look at the gold ETF inflows, then it would be 3300 crore.
16:07The gold fund of fund for this time has been stopped for the final time. What impact
16:13of domestic investors in which state of gold appetite is going to be hindered? What
16:21Inflows why is it reduced?
16:23Inflows is reduced, because in the time of Diwali there are some schemes
16:27which people have reduced inflows.
16:30The other thing is that the people who were already at higher level
16:33have to think that they can now go down to gold.
16:38They are still seeing that silver is broken, gold is broken,
16:41so they are in the wait and watch.
16:42Generally, when investment comes comes comes comes comes comes comes comes comes comes comes comes comes comes comes comes comes
16:49comes comes comes comes comes comes comes comes
16:50When the market is correct, people will wait and watch.
16:52There is a similar pattern here.
16:54If you go down to gold, you will get more levels.
16:58You can add more levels.
16:59When the market is down, people are in discounted mode.
17:03If you go down to gold, you will get more than gold.
17:06So they will wait and watch when the market is correcting.
17:09So this is the situation.
17:10The market is correct, people are not getting paid,
17:13so they are still waiting for more than gold.
17:18So they will get more than gold.
17:28So we will get more than gold.
17:30You will not get better than gold.
17:31At this point,
17:35there are still two different following the market.
17:35Then it will take more than silver as a coin,
17:38which is the stock is more than gold.
17:40But you have to look at very low level.
17:41So we need to buy some gold and have to plan.
17:42That is the stock is the stock,
17:42which is the stock.
17:42Now you will get more than gold,
17:44So if you have to buy your stock,
17:44So in the stock market,
17:47it will get more than gold.
17:49So it's just the stock market.
17:49So if you have to buy the stock.
17:50So, if you look at a multi-year low or multi-month low, it's a support zone where you can
17:58accumulate.
17:59Accumulation means that if you have reversal, at least we can say that if we have some quantity, we didn't
18:06have any benefit.
18:08So, when you look at investors, it's important that you always invest in the market.
18:12So, if you look at the market, when the market is reversal, you can say that you have a bottom.
18:17Generally, it's like this.
18:18So, if you look at the market, you should accumulate something at every dip.
18:26Probably, it's monthly, yearly, or weekly.
18:31So, if you add, you can say that you have accumulated a lower level.
18:35Okay.
18:35Sir, these retail investors, which are closed to the fund, should they directly shift to the ETF?
18:43Is this a right time?
18:45Or should we wait for the next decision?
18:48You can also shift to the ETF.
19:00That's the only thing.
19:01But yes, if you invest in the market, I think the price is correct.
19:07Fundamentals have changed.
19:09Trump's election is a big change.
19:12It's a big change.
19:15It's a big change.
19:15We've seen that in the past few weeks, Trump's statement was very cool.
19:20He said that I will talk about Iran, I will talk about everything, I will finish the work, I will
19:25start the state of form.
19:26So, after that, there is a big change.
19:41I think that the Fed will be new to the fund.
19:44I think that the Fed will be new to the fund.
19:48The fundamentals are changed here.
19:50The fundamentals are changed here.
19:51Definitely the technicals are changed in your view.
19:53The market is going to be consolidated in the consolidation zone.
19:57So, retail investors are going to be the biggest trigger for this time.
20:00The FOMC meeting is going to be going to be the dollar index or US yields.
20:04Do you have to take care of that?
20:07The market, dollar index and bond yield are going on the expectation.
20:10If you don't increase interest rates, then you will get a big correction in the bond yield.
20:16If you get a big correction in the bond yield, then you will get a support.
20:20Then you will get the dollar index increase and the bond yield will increase.
20:23Then you will get the goals in the world.
20:25The target of the dollar index is going to be 0.25.
20:29But the additional 0.25.
20:31The discussion has come.
20:32I think that the market will not be the discount.
20:36The reaction in the market will be the market.
21:04So, if you want to make the investment in the bond yield, then you will take a decision based on
21:08the bond yield.
21:08So, if you want to make a decision based on the outcome.
21:37Okay.
21:38If you want to make a decision based on the rate hike, then we will talk about it.
21:43But today, Anuj sir, thank you very much for joining us.
21:47Thank you very much.
22:03Thank you very much for joining us.

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