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00:00Democrats absolutely shellacked the GOP in the midterm elections.
00:03It was the worst case scenario for Republicans, the best case scenario for the Democrats.
00:09So what are the big takeaways?
00:10Let's talk about these five big sort of tentpole takeaways that we are going to see in the aftermath of
00:17the election.
00:18The first one is, of course, a referendum on Donald Trump.
00:22Donald Trump, the president, went into this saying in no uncertain terms,
00:26vote like my name is on the ballot.
00:29Is that what happened?
00:31Yeah, they did, but not in the way that he wanted, certainly.
00:34I mean, we saw this in the first exit poll that came out from the Associated Press.
00:3871% of people said that Congress needs to keep Donald Trump in check.
00:43I mean, it is quite the referendum on Trump.
00:46In fact, last night I was saying this is an indictment on Trump and his administration.
00:51His approval rating is between 36% and 38% right now.
00:55It's pretty dismal going into an election.
00:57Yeah, and he's telling people, he told people on October 22nd in Iowa, pretend I'm on the ballot, pretend I'm
01:05on the ballot.
01:05Then he comes out with a truth post last night saying, I wasn't on the ballot, so which one is
01:11it?
01:12And that's kind of the question here.
01:14Did voters pretend he was on the ballot?
01:16It almost seems split as moderates, undecided Republicans, and Democrats voted like the president was on the ballot.
01:23And to Leah's point, they voted furiously about him being on the ballot.
01:27But it does seem like, I don't know if the president being on the ballot was effective enough for his
01:33own base in the general midterm election for them to see other GOP candidates as the president.
01:41I mean, he is one person, but he is one powerful personality.
01:45And his message doesn't seem to have translated to other MAGA candidates.
01:50Well, let's actually just, like, let's zoom out a little.
01:54Most of these really competitive races, and the ones where there were surprise results, South Carolina is a big one
02:02here.
02:02These are President Trump's hand-picked candidates, right?
02:07Yeah, he put his thumb on the scale there.
02:08And he, you know, this is, we have not seen in our lifetimes a president who has more control over
02:18his party than President Trump has.
02:21And he really did pick who he wanted to run in these races.
02:26His endorsements carried a ton of weight.
02:30Darlene Graham is perhaps one of the big examples.
02:35You know, she had a very, very shaky primary.
02:39Were it not for his support, it's hard to see her winning.
02:44The other one, obviously, is Texas.
02:46You know, and the one analysis I'm going to be looking at in Texas is, like, did Ken Paxton sink
02:53Greg Abbott?
02:54You know, and that brings us to the next big issue.
02:57Texas flipped blue, and we're not just talking the Senate, we're not talking the House, we're talking the governor.
03:02Greg Abbott, three-time governor, ousted in a spectacular fashion.
03:08And also, a lot of these margins weren't tight.
03:11That's another one that I think was pretty surprising.
03:14Seven points.
03:15That's one of the biggest ones.
03:16And what you didn't see was split-ticket voting.
03:19You didn't see people voting for Tallarico and then voting for Abbott as well, which I think a lot of
03:25people did expect.
03:26Tallarico said he expected it.
03:27He expected it to be a split ticket.
03:29Especially out of Texas.
03:30Yeah.
03:30It's really unreal.
03:33So the question is, did the president's endorsement of Ken Paxton, it wasn't even just an endorsement.
03:38I mean, arguably, John Cornyn was seen as a more favorable candidate to be voted in in the general, but
03:45he was not a MAGA candidate.
03:46He was not hand-picked by the president.
03:48So when the president primaried or encouraged the primary of John Cornyn, is that what ultimately sank Texas for the
03:56GOP?
03:56Well, and actually, I will say, if you're looking at the demographics here, the turnout, I mean, Collin County, Texas,
04:07which is sort of ruby red county north of Dallas, where Ken Paxton is from, actually flipped to Tallarico, right?
04:16That's wild.
04:18Yeah, so it is, I do think, you know, regardless of, you know, Trump's pretend I was, President Trump's pretend
04:25I was on the ballot, and President Trump's selection of all these candidates, certainly, I think, helped make it a
04:35worst case scenario.
04:36But it also seems like, you know, Americans in the 21st century, American voters in the 21st century, we've seen
04:43this over and over again, love nothing more than to punish the party in power.
04:48And we saw that at a historic level last night.
04:51It's really stunning what's going on in Texas right now.
04:54But also, we're talking about the blue tsunami.
04:57There's also something going on that I was reading about last night called the Hispanic hurricane, which is super interesting.
05:04And you're seeing a lot of Latino men in particular who voted for Trump previously who are now turning back
05:11to the Democratic Party.
05:12And let's think about this.
05:15Affordability was on the ballot, period.
05:18That was the buzzword of the year.
05:19Yes.
05:20People don't care as much about anti-Semitism and what's going on in Israel as much as the Republicans, I
05:27think, made it such a talking point.
05:29They care about their gas prices going up.
05:31They care about their energy costs going up.
05:34They care about their grocery bills.
05:36I mean, I know that's what I care about as a mom of three.
05:39I see all of my bills going up.
05:40But that's what people really care about.
05:42Spending $175 every time you go to the grocery store for two bags is something people are thinking about when
05:47they go to vote and then go grocery shopping right afterwards.
05:49Yeah.
05:50Those are real human issues that the Republicans seem to gloss over.
05:55The third point here is what happens next when it comes to Democrats in powers in both chambers of Congress.
06:04There's a promise that they're going to come down hard on President Trump.
06:08In particular, Robert Garcia, Democratic representative from California, wrote on X, in all caps, lawyer up.
06:17So this is really in no uncertain terms indicating that once everyone is sworn in in January, it's not only
06:24going to the voters, not only are going to have a referendum on Trump, but the lawmakers that they voted
06:28in are really going to go after the president, his administration, his not his constituents, his children.
06:35And that does seem to be what's going to happen next.
06:38I mean, do you think there's weight to what to that threat?
06:42Absolutely.
06:43You saw Chuck Schumer last night, right?
06:45Chuck Schumer is going to be back in power.
06:47He's saying, number one, the top priority is taking care of Americans and listening to Americans' needs.
06:53Secondly, he said this is the most corrupt administration, historically speaking.
06:58You know that they are going to go after the Trump administration.
07:02Donald Trump himself, his children personally, with everything they've got.
07:07And we have indicators of what some of those investigations would be possible.
07:12ICE investigations possible into Don Jr.'s The Red Wedding, they're calling it.
07:17Who funded it?
07:18Was it a Russian oligarch?
07:19What type of influence is that?
07:20That's going to be brought into play.
07:22As well as the Trump family's involvement or non-involvement in crypto.
07:28What does that mean?
07:29So these are some real deal investigations that could be going in another level to the Jeffrey Epstein files.
07:35Those are all things that I am expecting.
07:37And one point about Garcia.
07:39Let me, hang on.
07:40Jump in.
07:40But this is actually, I mean, a lot of the smart people who I saw speaking last night,
07:48who I happen to agree with, said, you know, a big part of the problem with the Biden administration
07:56and now what led to this huge turnover in 2026 that we saw last night is that these parties
08:07in power have misinterpreted, right, the mandate that they've gotten, right, and basically gone
08:18for broke, right?
08:19You saw, you know, the criticism of the Biden administration, open borders, maximum, you
08:25know, woke.
08:26And with the Trump administration, he, he's, they've been very explicit that they were going
08:31for maximal effect here, right?
08:34And I think.
08:35Terrorists, immigration.
08:36Yeah, absolutely.
08:37And, and, and the Democrats, I think, need to be very aware that they are less popular
08:47than the IRS, right?
08:48That was a great Axios line, which is borne out by polls.
08:54And you've seen a little bit of that.
08:56So, Hakeem Jeffries on Morning Joe this morning, he is the likely speaker of the Democratic Speaker
09:02of the House, he's a, the House Minority Leader currently, you know, he's saying the American
09:08people don't want us to get even, right?
09:11So, I do think that there is a huge, there's very much a line to walk.
09:15Yeah, because if you still can't pay for your bills and they're investigating left and
09:17right, that that doesn't, that doesn't help the voter.
09:20And you're right, that is like, it is such a tough needle to thread for the party who will
09:24now be in power.
09:25How much of your attempt to govern is going to be governance and how much is going to
09:31be trying to go after the current administration?
09:34I think over the next two years, President Trump is a lame duck president, right?
09:38You are going to see, and he's already said it, he's going to be Mr. Vito.
09:42You are going to see nothing getting done in Congress.
09:46Nothing.
09:47It's just going to be stonewall after stonewall.
09:50And he said, she said, knock down, drag out, fight.
09:54And what happens within the Democratic Party, who's in power itself, is also going to be
10:00really interesting to watch.
10:01I mean, Zenni, you pointed out a really good point that the, this was more of a referendum
10:05on Trump than it is a support of the Democratic Party and the Democratic Party's values, because
10:11internally, they're kind of all over the place.
10:14And that really does bring us to another big takeaway from the Democrats last night.
10:18You know, he, Victor Nava wrote it like this, red spreads in Congress.
10:22I mean, you saw some far left candidates getting voted in.
10:26And as we entered into the midterms, there was that big question of, okay, if both bases
10:31mobilize in the primary, and then you've got far right candidates over far left candidates,
10:37where does everyone in the middle vote?
10:39And then you see in Michigan, Abdul El-Sayed taking the win.
10:44So what do you think that's going to mean for, I mean, I guess you kind of hit the nail
10:48on
10:48the head.
10:48They're not going to be able to govern.
10:49Well, and there is going to be this constant pull from the left, right?
10:57Mayor Mamdani is one of the most popular Democrats in America, right?
11:04Through the polls.
11:05Obviously, President Obama, First Lady, former First Lady Michelle, still extremely popular.
11:11But, you know, the Mamdani, the DSA element is the new hotness.
11:17And they've got a bunch of allies, right?
11:21Obviously, an AOC is very much angling for...
11:28Oh, yeah.
11:28This is a beauty for AOC, okay?
11:32I think the spotlight is really going to be on her.
11:35There's been a ton of rumors about 2028 if she's going to make a presidential run.
11:40Yep.
11:40She has demurred, but she has clearly polled very well in very early polling against people
11:46like J.D. Vance.
11:49Last night could not have gone any better for AOC's future.
11:53She's a single woman.
11:55She's looking for more power.
11:57She's got a bright future ahead of her.
11:59So she thinks.
12:00And I think last night...
12:01I mean, DSA candidates picked up at least five seats in the House, right?
12:07This is...
12:07It's just excellent news for people like Mamdani and AOC.
12:13But also, it's a bit of a nightmare for the current leaders.
12:18And let's not forget, like, Hakeem Jeffries and Chuck Schumer are not popular,
12:23but they're set to return to power, right?
12:26So it's...
12:27And they're going to have this left-wing tugging and very empowered, right?
12:33And we've covered a lot of that here in New York with the DSA candidates
12:37who primaried, you know, long-time standard Democratic standard bearers.
12:43Yeah.
12:44And so...
12:45And even with, you know, it's also this blue tsunami sort of covers up a lot of sins, right?
12:51If you look in Michigan, you know, one of the things my home county, Ottawa County, Michigan,
12:57which is typically, like, they don't love Trump, but they're very conservative.
13:01They went really big for Mike Collins, the Republican.
13:05They did not...
13:07They did not like Al-Sayed.
13:08And I think that, you know, his brand of, like, left-wing, you know,
13:14anti-Israel culture warrior firebrand is going to be very attractive to a lot of people,
13:20and they're going to be very vocal.
13:24There...
13:24I mean, we see these seats flipping in the Senate, in the House, governorships,
13:30all across the country.
13:31Ever the bulwark for the MAGA movement, though, Florida stayed right.
13:35That's the last point on this five-point list here.
13:37Florida kept right.
13:38So the president and the president's administration, you know, does still have some power in his pocket.
13:45But I want to bring up this one great point.
13:47There is an opinion piece in The Post today by Isaac Shore, and he writes,
13:51Trump is extremely susceptible, the opposite of immune, really, to a charm offensive.
13:57And his point was, just ask Mayor Mamdani.
14:00But what he argues is that the Dems aren't going to want to do it.
14:04The far-left Democrats who are now in there are going to dig in their heels
14:08on things like social issues like transgender rights in sports
14:12and not be willing to cross the aisle with people from, you know, lawmakers from Florida
14:18or the Trump administration itself in order to actually govern.
14:22And does that mean we're going to be in the same position but flipped in two years?
14:25Probably.
14:25I think you're going to see even more mutiny within the Democratic Party,
14:28even more so than we've already been seeing now between the far-left
14:32and the more establishment Dems, which is only going to bode well for the Republicans, of course.
14:38You know, in Florida, it's really fascinating.
14:41You know, Byron Donalds, for governor, he won by—
14:44Historic win.
14:45Historic win.
14:46You know, Florida's first black governor, which is amazing.
14:50Only won by two percentage points.
14:53Two percentage points.
14:54So Florida is certainly a bright spot for the GOP last night,
14:57but it should still be a wake-up call.
15:02So Florida is very interesting on a few big-picture points.
15:08The only Republican last night who was happy was Governor Ron DeSantis,
15:13and he was laughing his ass off.
15:16If you look at his posts on social media, he was crowing.
15:22I mean, he looked like the cat that got the cream, you know, filling up those boots.
15:30So—and it's because Florida, like, he really did—
15:34and part of it is, yes, President Trump endorsed Byron Donalds,
15:38but Byron Donalds was already a strong candidate who had a base of power.
15:43It was not a Darlene Graham situation.
15:45And so you saw, like—and so part of it is I think you see a newly re-ascendent Ron DeSantis
15:54and anyone who hasn't cozied up to the Trump administration,
15:58which Governor DeSantis has been very careful about walking that line of not angering him,
16:04but also not, you know, overly—
16:07Howtallying him.
16:08You know, so that's one point.
16:11But the other point is that it looks like Florida has become a bit of a GOP vote sink, right?
16:21Like, we've reported so much about how many people from Jersey and New York and Pennsylvania have moved to Florida.
16:30Well, like, give us your, you know, you're tired, you're old,
16:34and the people who don't want to pay state income taxes,
16:37and they're going to vote Republican.
16:39And by the way, they're not voting in New York, New Jersey, or Pennsylvania anymore.
16:43Right.
16:44But they're also an aging electorate.
16:46So come 2028 and the elections after that, you're going to see that electorate sort of aging out.
16:50But the president said he's going to have his veto pen ready,
16:53but then also said he, you know, the Democrats had a good night,
16:57and maybe we can get something done together.
16:58So whatever that means come January.
17:01He is a good businessman.
17:03He loves a good deal.
17:04He loves a good deal.
17:06The question is, will the party in power now be willing to make that with the president?
17:10I think if they want to get anything done, they're going to have to.
17:13Leah Michael, thank you so much for joining me,
17:15and your coverage across the election night was incredible.
17:18You guys did an amazing job.
17:19Thank you so much.