00:00In the United States, the midterm elections were not only a referendum on Donald Trump.
00:04They could also prove to be a defining moment for the Democratic Party, forcing it to confront
00:10some difficult questions about its leadership, its identity, and its strategy for the future.
00:15Who speaks for the Democrats?
00:17And can the party turn electoral gains into a coherent political alternative?
00:22And what lessons will it draw as it looks ahead to 2028?
00:26Earlier, I discussed this with Bruce Stokes, associate fellow at Chatham House, senior
00:31fellow at the German Marshall Fund, and a member of the Council on Foreign Relations.
00:35Here's what he said.
00:37There was an American comedian in the 1930s named Will Rogers, and he was once asked what
00:43political party he belonged to, and he said, I don't belong to an organized political party,
00:48I'm a Democrat.
00:50And there will be, as you suggested, tensions between the progressive wing of the party and
00:56the moderate wing of the party going forward in terms of priorities.
01:00I think, realistically, it would appear now there might be maybe eight or more, nine, maybe
01:0910 Democratic socialists in the Democratic caucus of now 240, 250 people.
01:17So they'll be very vocal.
01:20They'll claim the election is an endorsement of their agenda.
01:25But I think the reality is that the Democrats and the more moderate Democrats are really the
01:32ones who prevailed.
01:33So Democrats succeeded largely on the message of being against Trump.
01:38But going forward, they're going to have to decide what they want to stand for when
01:42he won't be on the ballot.
01:44Your take.
01:45I think you're right.
01:46You know, we have a long saying in the United States about it's the economy stupid.
01:51And clearly, the exit polling data showed that people thought the economy was the principal
01:56issue.
01:56But in this case, it was also Trump stupid that people by three to one said that they
02:03had voted against Trump in this election.
02:07So the question is going to be, what do the Democrats stand for going into the 2028 election?
02:14How do the various contenders position themselves?
02:18Because they can't just continue to talk about Trump, because, as you say, constitutionally,
02:26the president can't run again.
02:27So it's going to be a question of what are we going to do to win the voters support in
02:342028 when we don't have Trump to beat up?
02:37Well, even with this week's big victories, Democrats are going to be limited in what they
02:41can do with their new congressional majorities, because Trump can veto everything.
02:46How do you see this divided government play out?
02:51Well, it'd be very interesting to see whether the Democrats can fashion some initial legislation
02:56that addresses the cost of health care, for example, or food stamps, which, yes, it is
03:04true that in the Senate they would need 60 votes, because otherwise you can block things
03:10in the Senate if you don't have 60 votes.
03:12But it puts at least some Republicans who are up for re-election in 2028 in a bit of
03:17a bind.
03:18Do they want to vote against the food stamps?
03:22Do they want to vote against Medicaid, which is our health care for poor people?
03:27Do they want to vote against subsidies for Obamacare, which have gone up dramatically?
03:33On that note, I know it's early, but who do you see as the candidate leading the Democrats
03:39into the next presidential election?
03:43So it's very early at this point, but you're right.
03:45There's going to be more than a half a dozen, maybe even 10 people are going to throw their
03:50hats in the rings in the next couple of weeks.
03:52I think the clear winner from this election in terms of raising his profile and exciting
03:58people is John Ossoff, who is the senator from Georgia, who won by 18 or 19 percentage
04:05points and is young, he's articulate, he's from the South, and I think the initial excitement
04:15is going to be about him.
