00:00At kawagin na balitan niya na sa pagtaas ng inflation noong Oktubre, alamin natin sa ilang ekonomista, mga hakbang, kung
00:06ano-ano ang mga posibleng solusyon ng gobyerno para hindi gaano maramdaman ang tindi ng efekto nito sa mga ordinaryong
00:12Pilipino.
00:13Makausap po natin na sa linya po ng telepono ngayon si Sir Michael Ricafort, Chief Economist, or na Zoom, ng
00:20RCBC.
00:21Magandang umaga po, Sir Ricafort, si Joshua Garcia po ito ng PTV Rise and Shine, Pilipinas.
00:31Sir, ano po ba ang posibleng dahilan ng pagtaas ng inflation itong nakarambuan ng Oktubre?
00:37At dahil pa rin po ba ito sa pagtaas sa presyo ng mga produktong petrolyo, dulot ng sigalot, sa pagitan
00:42po ng Amerika at Iran?
00:45Yan na ito is number one. Kasi nag-iba ko yung story yan. Yung biyernes last week, a week ago,
00:51bago tayong mag-undas,
00:53ang taas ng world oil price, yung Dubai oil, nagsarayan ng $118, $118. That was the highest in six months.
01:04Ngayon, bumagsak na yung langis early this week. Ngayon, nasa $98 na yun yung Brent oil.
01:10So, bumagsak siya ng $20. Medyo mataas pa yung dollar-peso rin kunon.
01:17Ngayon, kakahapon yung exchange rate natin, bumaba na to new three-week lows, $62.97.
01:26So, that's lower by yung peak niyan, more than a week ago, yung record na yun, $64.20.
01:33So, bumaba na siya ng may git, 1 peso and 23 centavos or 1.9% to $62.97.
01:42Kaya medyo yung pinakaiba noong October.
01:46Kaya, although yung ano talaga, primarily, it's transport costs.
01:51Kasi, tapos yung ano rin, kasi nag-take effect din yung higher transport fares.
01:58That was September 28th, nakary over noong October.
02:01Ganon din yung higher minimum wage sa Metro Manila.
02:04It took effect September 26th.
02:07That was yung 60 pesos or 8.6%.
02:10May spillover noong October.
02:12Kasi, syempre, pagkaan tumas yung wages, ipapasa yan.
02:17Tataas yung iba presyo ng bilhin, yung mga negosyo, industriya.
02:21Itatay nila ipasa yan. May second round inflation effects.
02:24Ngayon, November, baka magbago yun kasi bumaba yung presyo ng langis.
02:29Kahit paano, nasa lowest in one to two months.
02:32Baka may magkaroon ng mga malalaking rollback in the coming days and weeks.
02:37Tapos, yung peso, medyo lumakas in importation costs natin.
02:42Kahit paano maiibsan, no?
02:45Pero, syempre, yung inflation na yan,
02:49meron pa tayong challenges, eh.
02:51On the horizon, meron tayong super-elding yun na inaabangan, no?
02:56Nag-take, ano na yan?
02:58Nangyayari na yan, yung below average yung rainfall.
03:01At mararamdaman yan ng gusto during the peak summer season.
03:06Pagtag-init lalo na kasi bawas yung rainfall,
03:10bawas yung agricultural production,
03:12tataas yung presyo ng bigas,
03:14yung mga, yung ibang mga pananim, no?
03:17Kasi, kulang yung supply, ano eh, bawas yung supply
03:19dahil kulang yung ulan, kulang yung tubig, no?
03:22Unless yung iba naman kasi may patubing sila, yun.
03:24May intervention.
03:25Pero yung mga umaasa na sa irigasyon, sa ulan,
03:28eh, bawas po yun, no?
03:29Ah, ganun din po yung sa, ano, mainit yun, eh.
03:34Imagine nyo, this is the worst El Niño in more than 75 years, since 1950.
03:39So, yung kahandaan po yung importante, no?
03:41Kaya, ah, kasi mainit yun.
03:43So, matataas yung demand sa kuryente, no?
03:46Patapati presyo ng kuryente, may tendency to mask.
03:48Kasi, nakita naman natin,
03:50wala pa yung super El Niño,
03:51merong red and yellow alerts sa Visayas and Mindanao, eh.
03:54All the more, kung dumating pa yan.
03:56Okay.
03:56So, yun ang, kaya dapat pagkandaan,
03:58kung tanong mo niyo mga kanina,
03:59ano ba yung kailangan gawin, no?
04:01Eh, ngayon naman,
04:03nakipag-usap din yung pamahalaan,
04:05I've been talking to the various business groups around the country,
04:08yun din yung sinabi ng DTI,
04:10na, yung mga large,
04:12ibang large manufacturers and producers,
04:14eh,
04:16hindi po muna nagtasamay.
04:18Ah po, sorry to cut you po, sir.
04:19So, ibig sabihin po nito,
04:21hindi lang Pilipinas ang nakararanas ng inflation
04:24o pagtaas ang presyo ng mga bilhin.
04:26Tama po ba?
04:28Hindi lang po nito sa Pilipinas.
04:29Abong mundo po yan.
04:29Apo.
04:30Opo, hindi lang po dito.
04:32Eh, kaya nga, no,
04:33medyo nagdiwang yung mundo,
04:35buwaba yung presyo na langis
04:37kasi nanali yung Democrats, no?
04:39Ibig sabihin,
04:39naataas yung tsansa na
04:41they will work on ending the war.
04:44Kasi nagsalita na yung mga tao sa Amerika,
04:46yung mga butante, no?
04:47Binoto nila yung kalaban ng Republican.
04:50Sina-trap kasi Republican yan.
04:51Eh, sila kasi yung nag-decide itong gera na to, no?
04:54Na apektado pati sila.
04:56Ayaw nila.
04:57Hindi nila gusto yung gera
04:58kasi walang buting naidulot yan.
05:00Tumas yung presyo ng mga bilhin.
05:01Ngayon,
05:02sila yung nanalo,
05:03yung Democrats.
05:04Unti-unti yan,
05:05nag-commit sila na
05:07to end the war, no?
05:09Kasi yun ang ano,
05:10parang referendum yan, eh.
05:12Ayaw talaga ng mga Amerikano rin
05:15nandun sa gera.
05:16Sila mismo.
05:17O kaya,
05:18unti-unti,
05:18papunta na doon,
05:19pinaprise ina.
05:20Si Trump kasi hanggang January 2029.
05:22Pero unti-unti,
05:23doon na pupunta yun, no?
05:25Dapat pakiganan nila yung
05:26yung hiling ng mga tao,
05:29yung sentimento ng mga tao.
05:30Ayaw na nila ng gera.
05:32At yun na yung commitment
05:32ng mga senior na Democrat leaders
05:35sa Senado
05:35na they would work
05:37to end the war.
05:39And yung mga pulisiya, no?
05:41Na papunta doon, no?
05:42Dapat pakingganan nila yung
05:45sentimento at yung
05:47will ng mga tao.
05:48Ayaw na nila ng gera.
05:49Apektado tayo lahat dyan.
05:51Bung mundo, no?
05:52Kaya,
05:53yun po yung ano,
05:54medyo,
05:54kaya bumaba yung langis
05:56ng $20, no?
05:57Mula nung
05:58early this week, no?
05:59Compared to a week ago,
06:01taas-taas dyan.
06:02Pero, sir,
06:03Ang afford,
06:04Sir,
06:04ano po kaya
06:05ang solusyon
06:06na pwedeng gawin
06:07ng gobyerno
06:08pagka pumataas
06:09ang inflation?
06:10Maliwan po doon
06:10sa nabangkit yung
06:11kaninang paghahanda?
06:14Eh,
06:14ito,
06:15syempre,
06:15yung langis,
06:17at at least,
06:18wala tayong control dyan
06:19kasi alas lahat ng langis
06:21na import natin, no?
06:22So,
06:22kailangan,
06:23yung,
06:24yun,
06:25tulad nun,
06:26na,
06:27ang trabaho
06:28ng pamahalaan din,
06:29no?
06:30Para,
06:30to prepare for this, no?
06:32Lalo na yung
06:32super L ninyo.
06:33Yung sa langis kasi,
06:34syempre,
06:35una,
06:36doon sa langis,
06:37eh,
06:38kasi,
06:38ini-import natin
06:39halos lahat ng langis.
06:40ang solusyon dyan,
06:41kahit yung mga tao,
06:42they're taking action,
06:43di kung afford naman nila
06:44nagre-renewable,
06:46yung mga,
06:46ano,
06:46renewables,
06:47yan,
06:47mga solar,
06:48sa mga bahay-bay,
06:49sa mga negosyo,
06:50sa mga institusyon,
06:51para,
06:51hindi mag-rely
06:53sa imported na
06:54coal,
06:55na fuels,
06:55for electricity,
06:57no?
06:57Tapos,
06:58syempre,
06:58accelerate na yung,
06:59ano,
06:59it's really about time.
07:01Ito na yung
07:02urgency na
07:04bilis na na yung
07:05roll out
07:06ng mga solar
07:07power,
07:08na,
07:08yung mga wind,
07:10offshore wind,
07:10total,
07:10yan naman ang mga
07:11pinakamalalaking investments,
07:13eh,
07:13geothermal,
07:15yung waste to energy,
07:17and even nuclear,
07:17kahit mahal yan,
07:19eh,
07:19yung older generation,
07:20may foresight na dyan,
07:21eh,
07:21yung bataan nuclear power plant,
07:23hindi nga lang nagamit,
07:24kasi nagkaroon ng
07:25aksidente sa Chernobyl
07:26noong 1987.
07:28Sir,
07:28report?
07:28So,
07:29yun yung,
07:30opo.
07:30Opo.
07:31Kung sakasakali po,
07:32kasama din kaya sa solusyon,
07:33ay itaas ng Banko Sentral
07:35ng Pilipinas
07:35yung ating interest rates
07:37o yung tubo
07:39sa mga pautang
07:39ng banko?
07:41O,
07:42kasama po yun.
07:42Actually,
07:43they have been doing
07:44their jobs,
07:44yes,
07:45they have raised
07:46noong October 22,
07:4850 basis points,
07:50mukhang magtataas pa sila,
07:51yun yung sinyalis,
07:52come the next meeting
07:53December 17,
07:54no?
07:54To slow things down,
07:56To bring down,
07:57help.
07:57Kasi ang mandato nila,
07:59price stability
08:00or stable prices.
08:01So,
08:02just like 4 years ago,
08:03they were successful,
08:04including the US Central Bank
08:05and IR Central Banks
08:06around the world,
08:07nagtataas sila ng interest rates
08:09to slow things down
08:10kasi
08:10nagiging vicious cycle,
08:12Tumataas yung presyo
08:13ng bilhin,
08:14mag-healing ng higher wages,
08:15tapos paikot-ikot yun,
08:17tataas na naman yung presyo
08:18dahil nga doon sa
08:18mataas na wages.
08:20So,
08:22palimawa,
08:22salangis din,
08:23Hindi nyo ta-targetin
08:24kung nagtataas
08:25ng interest rates,
08:26it's really meant
08:26to slow things down.
08:27Yes,
08:28mahal lang borrowing cost,
08:29pero mababa naman yung demand
08:31sa krudo.
08:31They were successful
08:33in doing that 4 years ago
08:34and,
08:35yun,
08:36let them do their jobs,
08:37no?
08:37Pati yung,
08:38kahit yung US,
08:39to risk interest rates,
08:40no?
08:40Parang sasakyan yan,
08:42preno.
08:42Para,
08:43ang sasakyan,
08:44para yung may accelerator,
08:45pwedeng magbaba ng interest rates
08:47pag mahina ekonomiya,
08:48pagka mataas yung inflation,
08:50tapakan yung pre,
08:51Kasi mapanganib yung inflation
08:52kasi mag-spiral yan
08:54para matigil yung vicious cycle na yun
08:56na puro price hike,
08:58tataas yung presyo,
08:59tataas yung wages,
08:59presyo,
09:00ganun.
09:00So,
09:01yung loop na yun,
09:02no?
09:02Sir,
09:03ito po,
09:04maaari din po siguro
09:05magpatupad ang gobyerno
09:06ng fiscal restraint
09:08o bawasan po
09:09yung mga gastusin
09:10at budgeting mabuti
09:12yung pondo ng pamahalaan
09:13sa tingin nyo po.
09:16Alimitado,
09:16importante po yan
09:17kasi,
09:18actually,
09:19meron pang kailangan na
09:20catch-up spending
09:20dahil mabagal yung
09:21economic growth,
09:22no?
09:22Kasi,
09:232.6% yung average growth
09:25natin first half.
09:26Makakaiba po yun,
09:27unusual kasi
09:28nakasanayan po
09:29ng international investors
09:30at credit rating agencies
09:31where the Philippines
09:33has always been
09:33the fastest growing economy,
09:355 to 6%,
09:36kasi may underspending tayo,
09:37yung bulsod nga po
09:38sa anomalous
09:39flat control projects
09:39since late last year
09:41ng 2025.
09:42So,
09:42nag-comfit naman yung
09:43economic team
09:43to do catch-up spending,
09:45no?
09:45And of course,
09:47yung reforma rin,
09:49yes,
09:49fiscal reforms,
09:52pati fiscal discipline,
09:53magkakibat po yun.
09:54Yung catch-up spending
09:55to make up for the underspending
09:56para muli sila
09:57yung economic growth
09:58to pump prime the economy,
09:59no?
10:00Through increased
10:01infrastructure spending.
10:02Of course,
10:02dapat yung pinaka
10:03cost-benefit analysis,
10:05yung pinaka-importante
10:08kapikapakipakinapang
10:08sa ating mga kababayan
10:09dahil limitado yung pondo,
10:11no?
10:11May budget deficit,
10:12inuutang yun,
10:13no?
10:14Anti-corruption,
10:15anti-leakage,
10:16anti-wastage,
10:17eh,
10:17sa pamamagitan ng ano,
10:19yun nga,
10:19yung apat na reform measures
10:20since last year pa.
10:22Yung Pangulo na rin
10:23yung nagsabi
10:23noong December 9,
10:25anti-political dynasty bill,
10:28yung reforming the
10:29partner system,
10:30cadena bill,
10:31creation of an
10:32independent people's
10:33commission,
10:33lahat po yun,
10:34greater transparency,
10:35greater accountability
10:36sa government spending,
10:37and of course,
10:38anti-corruption,
10:39mas disiplinado yung
10:40kastusin,
10:41ibig sa mapunta
10:42sa corruption,
10:43tapos yung,
10:44yun,
10:45babalik yung kumpiyansa
10:46rin ng foreign investors.
10:48Well,
10:48bago nga mag-gira,
10:50maganda yung markets natin
10:51dahil yun po yung
10:52commitment,
10:52yung catch-up spending
10:53na yun,
10:54although,
10:54hinihintay pa rin,
10:55first quarter,
10:56second quarter,
10:56third quarter,
10:57lumipas,
10:58so,
10:58ngayon,
10:58kasi siyempre,
10:59sinabi na nga ng
11:00Pangulo na ready na yung
11:01when it comes to
11:02everything,
11:03yung on the bidding
11:04process,
11:04siyempre,
11:05yung documentation,
11:06yung auditing,
11:06et cetera,
11:07para hindi na
11:08maisan ulit,
11:08yung problema
11:10doon sa flood control.
11:11Kaya,
11:11bibilis yung ekonomiya,
11:13tapos,
11:14it's hinge on,
11:15the catch-up spending
11:16is hinge on
11:16better governance standards,
11:18kung mapasa din
11:19yung reform measures
11:20na yun,
11:21kasi sabi nga
11:22ng Supreme Court,
11:22yung anti-political
11:23dynasty is long overdue,
11:25kasi,
11:25better governance standards,
11:28sa pamantayan
11:29ng global investors
11:30before they put in
11:31billions of pesos
11:32and dollars into the country,
11:33eh,
11:34kailangan kita lang,
11:35kaya nga sa punta dito
11:36para kumita,
11:37pabilis yung economic growth,
11:39no?
11:39At,
11:39and of course,
11:40yung better governance standards,
11:42it all starts
11:43and ends with
11:43good governance,
11:45strong rule of law,
11:46strong institutions of law,
11:47effective and timely justice system.
11:49Alright,
11:49on that note,
11:50maraming maraming salamat po,
11:51RCBC Chief Economist,
11:53Michael Ricafort,
11:54sa impormasyon
11:55at sa inyong panahon.
11:56Thank you, sir.
11:57Thank you, sir.
11:58Thank you, sir.
11:58Thank you, sir.
