00:00Joining me on this broadcast, Seema Sirohi, columnist, India-U.S. relations.
00:04Joining me from Washington, D.C., Pramit Pal Chaudhary, head of India Practice, Eurasia Group.
00:11I'm going to begin with Pramit Pal Chaudhary.
00:14Here is J.D. Wans, perhaps the first one in U.S. administration saying that this was an unpopular war.
00:21And that is the reason why he has cited multiple reasons, but war being one of it.
00:28Inflation, we knew about it. Cost of living, of course.
00:30But for him to say that Israel policy and Iran are the reasons for this defeat is a huge admission,
00:37isn't it?
00:38Yeah, I mean, I think we've already seen a number of Republican strategists publicly say that,
00:43look, if we hadn't had this war, at the very least we would have held on to the Senate.
00:48Because it's not just the fact that this war was a basic violation of one of Trump's most important electoral
00:56promises,
00:56which no more Middle Eastern wars.
00:59It's second that the repercussions of the war, that this led to diesel prices rising, energy prices rising.
01:08And in many ways, that economic impact has been at the heart of a lot of the, should we say,
01:16not so much as Republicans turning against Trump, as many Republicans are staying home and not bothering to come out
01:22to vote,
01:23feeling that they don't have enough to want to mobilize to support Trump or the Republican Party.
01:31So that I don't think is a total surprise.
01:33But notice that he, him, that Vance says that Trump himself has said this.
01:39And internally, I believe that is what the reports are saying, that Trump has admitted that this war has not
01:44been a,
01:45it was not a sensible decision.
01:48Having said that, there's no evidence that Trump has any idea to get out of this war or even wants
01:52to end it in a hurry.
01:53Because the Iranians, even if you were to believe that the war is bad, Trump needs, I would argue, a
02:01face saver to get out of this war.
02:03It's a war he started.
02:05It's a war in which almost every American interest that you could name,
02:09including the fact that America controlled the streets of Ormuz before the war and is now basically struggling to hold
02:15on to it.
02:16He has nothing.
02:17And the Iranians are very clear.
02:18They're not going to give America anything.
02:20When Iranian officials meet their Indian counterparts, they say that we don't want to give this man a face saver.
02:28We want him humiliated because they think all the cars are falling in their, in their favor.
02:33And this midterm results will only strengthen the Iranian view.
02:37I mean, this is humiliation.
02:39But Seema Sirohi, come in now and weigh in on what do you think will be the big takeaway of
02:45this midterm results.
02:47One may say that burying George W. Bush in 2002 and before that, in 1998, it was Bill Clinton.
02:57Most U.S. presidents have lost midterm elections.
03:02So what is it and how should this one be viewed?
03:11Ma'am, if you heard me?
03:15You're breaking off sometimes.
03:18Well, it is true that historically only twice has the president's party won the midterm since World War II.
03:29So this is not unusual.
03:33Barack Obama, if you remember 2010, I think it was where the Democrats lost both houses and he called it
03:42a shellacking.
03:44And Bill Clinton, the same thing happened.
03:47So it's not unusual.
03:50And both Clinton and Obama went on to win a second term.
03:55So this is just the normal cycle of politics in America, I would think.
04:03And another point I would say is like it's best not to overread the results.
04:11True, it was a Republican route.
04:14You know, the Democrats won seats in the Senate in places, in deeply red states where they'd never even dreamt
04:24of ever winning or trying even.
04:28Such was the anger against Trump because of the war, mainly because the war affected everything in daily life.
04:39The price of gas for everyone, the price of diesel, the price of fertilizers for the farmers.
04:48Rural America has been hurting quite a bit and doesn't get that much mentioned.
04:56There have been farm bankruptcies over the last year that have gone up by, I believe, 12 percent, according to
05:04official statistics.
05:05So the war has kind of, you know, overwhelmingly affected life in America as it has in many other countries.
05:16So the anger and was really palpable.
05:21So but Mr. Roy, let me ask you, you know, something more in this question.
05:27When you say that we should not be reading too much into it here will be Donald Trump known to
05:34take those calls all by himself, perhaps not even keeping keeping his administration on board, taking the truth social and
05:43making announcements with regards to tariffs, imposing penal taxes on multiple countries.
05:50He won't be able to do that.
05:52Or do you think he'll continue to?
05:55He still has a lot of executive authority.
05:59He can pass orders.
06:00But now the Congress will be controlled by Democrats.
06:05So all of the committee chairs will be Democrats.
06:09And like, for example, Gregory Meeks, the incoming chair of the House Foreign Relations Committee,
06:19has been a huge critic of Trump's tariff wars.
06:25They will do what they can on Capitol Hill.
06:29But Trump never needed or never used, never went to Congress for permission to launch this war.
06:40Right.
06:40So what he will do with the existing authorities that he has is anyone's guess.
06:49OK.
06:50I'm not sure whether the Congress, a democratically controlled Congress, will act as a huge, you know, control mechanism.
07:01Yes, there will be hearings, there will be attempts at subpoenas, calling people, calling administration officials to answer questions.
07:14What will it result in?
07:16I'm not so sure.
07:17OK.
07:19Alec, Ipsos has been talking about multiple issues that will decide the outcome.
07:27Most of these issues have decided the outcome and we have seen the results.
07:33But I'm looking at the sheer scale.
07:35You have the Senate 54 for the Democrats.
07:39Much bigger mandate than what it was two years ago.
07:43Then you have, you know, the other House, the House of Representatives, almost having a landslide for the Democrats again,
07:53230 plus.
07:55The sheer scale, was that also something that you had sensed during all the surveys that was being carried out?
08:03Well, this was a remarkable night in American politics, as we've suggested to have Democrats winning Senate seats in states
08:10like Texas,
08:11Texas, South Carolina, potentially even Mississippi.
08:14This is really a seismic shift or shock to the political system here.
08:18Polls did a good job of seeing the signs here that it could be a very, very strong Democratic year.
08:24But I think it has to be said that early results suggest that Democratic candidates have even outperformed those polls,
08:30which are pointing to a strong environment for Democrats.
08:33And it's worth saying, how did we get here?
08:35The war was unpopular?
08:36Absolutely.
08:37But it was the intense pressure of affordability of the economy, that deep frustration.
08:42And that really drove the president's ratings down over the course of this year.
08:46That's part of the trajectory we could see going into the midterms.
08:49And it changed how Americans think about the political parties that began to see the Democratic Party as better on
08:55the economy.
08:56That's unusual.
08:57That's different.
08:58That's a shift from the past.
08:59In other issues that concern Americans, but maybe they were willing to give the president the benefit of the doubt
09:05when they had more economic confidence, such as immigration enforcement, even border or trade negotiations,
09:11these same seem to cascade down from these economic concerns.
09:15And that's how you get to what we saw last night, which is really a remarkable win for the Democratic
09:19Party.
09:20And what I would add to that note here is it's more of a rejection of the current administration than
09:25it is an embrace of the Democratic Party.
09:27It's an opportunity for Democrats.
09:29But these remain Republican-leaning places, many of these newly won Senate seats.
09:34And the broader American public does have some doubts about the Democratic Party brand.
09:39So it's an opportunity for Democrats.
09:40It's not necessarily a warm embrace.
09:42That will be to be seen over the next two years here.
09:45So, Alec, when you say that, you know, this is, this was a negative vote, a vote against Donald Trump,
09:54not as much as Democrats being seen, generating an alternative narrative that was attracting voters.
10:03So what really happens, according to you, if the elections, the presidential elections were held today?
10:09Do you think the outcome would be similar?
10:12Part of what we just saw is how much can change in two years.
10:16Two years ago, President Donald Trump won a popular vote victory.
10:19And what we saw last night was an enormous reversal.
10:21So I think it's good to be cautious about how much can change over the next two years as we
10:26go into the presidential.
10:27But to return to your question, neither party is in great standing overall with voters right now, whether that's the
10:33Republican Party or the Democratic Party.
10:35Now, there were some quality candidates that ran last night and won very important victories.
10:39But if you're looking at national brands, Americans have been frustrated with how they've been represented in the political system
10:45for some time.
10:47So, again, it's, yes, it's an opportunity for Democrats.
10:49It's also an opportunity for Republicans to remake their brand ahead of the next presidential election.
10:54There's really an open contest here to see who can appeal to voters and convince voters that they're really speaking
11:00directly to their needs, because that's not how voters have felt in recent years.
11:04So, Pramit, tell me, what do you think will happen in the next two years?
11:07Because this is the last two years of Donald Trump's presidency.
11:11Will he be trying to course correct or will he double down as he's always known to do, that whenever
11:18he's under pressure, he goes on an offensive?
11:22Well, Eurasia Group actually just issued a note to its clients and said this Trump administration is effectively a lame
11:29duck administration now.
11:30Look, on the domestic front, he's been able to rule by issuing executive orders, and a Republican Congress was unwilling
11:41to challenge him in any of this, even though much of what he did on these orders was a violation
11:51often of constitutional and legal structures.
11:54Now they will challenge him endlessly, and they will challenge him not only on what he does, they will also
12:00launch criminal investigations against his administration.
12:05Its lack of integrity has been striking, and it hasn't exactly made sure that it's kept its paper trails unclean.
12:15And so you've seen, and then finally, they'll control appropriations.
12:19The Congress's single most powerful element of power is that it controls where the money goes and how it's spent.
12:27So you'll see at least definitely long questioning of the administration.
12:30Why do you want more money for this war?
12:33What do you plan to do with it?
12:34And so on and so forth.
12:35So you'll see that, and then you'll see potentially, and this is what everybody's looking at Vance's statement as I
12:41think is most important, is that they will start to see dissent within the Republican Party itself.
12:47And Vance's statement in many ways, as you could almost argue, is the beginning of his run for the presidency
12:54two years from now,
12:56where he has begun, as you've said, distancing himself a bit from President Trump and his policies, or his more
13:04unpopular policies.
13:05So on the domestic front, I don't expect to see very much except a huge degree of paralysis and infighting
13:11as the Democrats try to change the narrative, political narrative on the front.
13:18Foreign policy, however, the president has a lot of leeway, as Seema correctly pointed out.
13:25But I think the pressure on him to first bring this war to Iran to an end will be very,
13:31very strong.
13:32I still expect a few more rounds of conflict, but fundamentally, Trump increasingly has very little to argue as to
13:40why he's exactly pursuing this war.
13:42And if Netanyahu's government is unable to return in Israel, then one of the crucial external players sort of egging
13:49him on will effectively have disappeared.
13:52All right.
13:55We have really come to the end of this discussion.
13:58Alec Tyson, Pramit Paul, and Seema Seroe, really appreciate your time.
14:03Thank you so much for joining us.
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