00:00It seems like the United States, under Pete's headset, is delaying the delivery of patriots to Ukraine, as President Zelensky
00:08said.
00:09What do you think, what do you make of all this?
00:12Yeah, well, first off, we don't have hard information.
00:15It seems to be the case that European countries have purchased patriot missiles, the inserts, the anti-missile missiles, and
00:25that they have not been delivered to Ukraine yet.
00:27And there's no information or explanation from the Pentagon about this.
00:32My best guess is that the Pentagon is preparing for the possibility of a resumption of the war against Iran
00:40after the midterm elections.
00:42And in that circumstance, they don't know how many patriot missiles they're going to need for themselves.
00:48So they're just waiting.
00:49That's my best guess.
00:51But I haven't heard anything concrete about this.
00:53But there's also a fairly strong feeling that this is also about applying leverage on Ukraine.
01:01We saw with Starlink, with the Patriots, we've seen a lot of pressure put on a lot of Zelensky by
01:07this administration to stop striking Russian diesel refineries.
01:11Right, right.
01:12So we've seen several things here.
01:15It's all driven by the midterm elections in the U.S., which are now just a week away.
01:21And President Trump is seeing what everyone is seeing, that it's going to go very, very badly for the Republicans,
01:28certainly losing the House of Representatives, probably also losing the Senate at this stage is the way it looks.
01:34Although you never know.
01:36So he wants to be seen to be doing something about the issues that are making voters unhappy.
01:44One of them is the price of diesel.
01:47And that particularly affects farmers, mid-state, red state voters in the Midwest and the United States.
01:52So he wants to be seen to be doing something about that.
01:55So he thought it would be a great story for him to be able to say, I've got Vladimir Putin
02:00giving us diesel, and I've got Zelensky to stop attacking the refineries.
02:04So I'm fighting for you.
02:06I'm on your side.
02:07The problem with that is it is an insignificant amount of diesel.
02:13It won't do anything to U.S. or global prices.
02:16The U.S., in fact, is already a diesel exporter.
02:19We have more than enough for our own consumption.
02:22It's just that global prices are high.
02:23And everyone in the U.S. sees through this.
02:26So it hasn't delivered the electoral benefit to President Trump that he thought it might.
02:34So he's been trying to figure out other things he can do to pull a rabbit out of the hat
02:39before the midterms.
02:40Restart negotiations.
02:42Send Whitcoff to Russia.
02:43Talk about major oil deals.
02:45All of these things are intended to create some sense, I think, in Trump's mind of doing something.
02:55And it's not working.
02:57The public is not buying it.
02:59They're focused domestically.
03:01They're focused on prices and things here.
03:04They don't like the war against Iran.
03:06And yet it may have to resume.
03:08We'll see.
03:09Why do you think it may have to resume?
03:11Well, because Iran is effectively going to be in control of the Persian Gulf.
03:16And that's going to be unacceptable for the Gulf states, for Israel, for us.
03:22And right now, President Trump is saying, no, no, no, they're not.
03:25We're getting things through.
03:27But we cannot be in a permanent position of blockading Iran and escorting vessels through the Persian Gulf, through the
03:34Straits of Hormuz.
03:35That's not tenable.
03:37So I think that Trump is going to have one more effort to hit the Iranian regime, hope that somebody
03:43replaces them, try to get them to agree to freedom of navigation again,
03:47which they had until January and February of this year.
03:52And that is where I think we're headed.
03:55And that's going to put a spike on oil and energy prices again.
03:59So there's a no-win situation for President Trump here.
04:03But, I mean, from a European perspective, the withdrawal of Starlink for a certain period of time, the slow walking
04:11on the patriots,
04:12there's a feeling that the United States is no longer a neutral part of this negotiation, but actually is on
04:18the side of Russia.
04:19And remember, the patriots are purchased already, notwithstanding the war in Iraq and the stockpile issue, purchased by European taxpayers.
04:26Yeah.
04:27No, that's right.
04:28And I think one of the reasons for that perception was the meeting in Oslo, where you had some Europeans
04:35together with Steve Woodcoff, and he brought some proposals.
04:38And some of these proposals were very much one-sided in favor of Russia, including that Europe would unfreeze the
04:47frozen Russian assets and transfer them to the U.S.
04:51And the U.S. would use them for investment in Ukraine's reconstruction, including in occupied areas.
04:59So crazy stuff coming out of these proposals here.
05:02Again, I think it's grasping for straws.
05:05It's flailing around.
05:06President Trump doesn't want to put pressure on Putin, does want to see the war end.
05:11And so he keeps reverting to try to put pressure on Ukraine, which is not going to end the war.
05:16But what do you think of the fact that, as Zelensky is saying, and as what we're led to believe,
05:22that there is a delay in the patriots to put pressure on Zelensky?
05:27I mean, what are Europeans to think of this, given this is life or death?
05:31I mean, Ukrainians are dead as a consequence here.
05:34Yes.
05:34Yeah, it's terrible.
05:35And as you saw, there was a great deal of confusion in the U.S. as to what actually happened
05:41with Starlink.
05:44First, Elon Musk said, it's not me.
05:47Then President Trump said, it's not me.
05:51Then Associated Press reports that it's the White House somewhere.
05:55Then President Trump says, I don't know anything about it.
05:58Then Elon Musk says, well, actually, it was me.
06:02But it was only because they were misusing Starlink and Star Shield is still something that the U.S. government
06:09controls.
06:10And then Trump calls Musk and says, OK, just turn it back on.
06:13So a great deal of confusion over this.
06:17The main effect of limiting the use of Starlink and Star Shield was to impact Ukraine's air defenses, which I
06:26think people thought would impact their offensive strike capability in Russia, which is not true.
06:32And so once that was apparent, then they went and restored Starlink to the way it had been.
06:38But what are the Ukrainians supposed to do and Europeans supposed to do now with no patriots to intercept these
06:44ballistic missiles coming from Russia?
06:46Yeah.
06:47You know, just keep going.
06:50There's no other direction, no other pathway.
06:54Russia is gradually losing the war here.
06:57It's just going to take a very long time at this rate.
07:00But they are losing people.
07:02They're losing money.
07:03They're destroying their economy.
07:06They are losing on the front lines.
07:08They're not having a strategic impact with their aerial campaign.
07:12So Russia is gradually losing here.
07:14And they will eventually, I believe, agree to a ceasefire.
07:17It would be nice if the U.S. was helping.
07:20And it would be nice if the U.S. and Europe were coordinated in how we help.
07:24So that's not the case.
07:26But I think Ukraine and Europe just have to keep going because we do want to see this war ended.
07:31And just finally, though, on the patriots, do you think that there's, after the midterms, there may be a change,
07:37at least, perhaps,
07:38if this is about leveraging Zelensky to stop striking Russia diesel refineries, that maybe they will release the patriots after
07:46the midterms?
07:47I think it's going to depend on the war on Iran.
07:51I think that's the main driver right now is the uncertainty over what the U.S. will need for our
07:57own defense and for that of Gulf states and Israel.
08:01And so until that's clear, I think we're going to live with a lot of uncertainty.
08:06Because the United States is within its rights, is that what you're saying, to withhold patriots if they need them,
08:11even though they're paid for?
08:12Yeah, both as a practical matter, it's doable.
08:17And also as a legal matter, usually in contracts, there are some forced bajura clauses and a war or military
08:26action that we would be engaged in would qualify for that.
