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Europe Today: Patt nach Israels Wahl, nordische Staatschefs sprechen mit Putin

Israel-Wahl endet im Patt: Weder Benjamin Netanjahu noch Gadi Eisenkot erreichen eine Mehrheit. Finnlands und Norwegens Staats- und Regierungschefs telefonieren mit Wladimir Putin. Außerdem: Serbiens Wahl, US-Zwischenwahlen, Mbappé-Streit mit China.

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00:01Untertitelung des ZDF für funk, 2017
00:30with neither Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu nor his main rival Gadi Eisenkott on track for a majority in the Knesset.
00:38The stalemate could work in Netanyahu's favor, allowing the long-serving Prime Minister to remain in power in a caretaker
00:45capacity
00:46while parties try to forge a governing coalition. Final results could take days.
00:52Finnish President Stupp and Norwegian Prime Minister Störe held a surprise phone call with Russian President Putin,
00:58signaling Europe's increasing willingness to engage directly with Moscow to end the war in Ukraine.
01:05The two leaders urged Putin to commit to meaningful negotiations to reach a stable, peaceful settlement.
01:11The call was made at the initiative of the two Nordic leaders.
01:15Afterwards, they exchanged with Ukrainian President Zelensky.
01:18And French football superstar Kylian Mbappé has lost several of his biggest sponsorship deals in China
01:26after a video circulated online in which he appears to joke about Mao Zedong, the founder of the People's Republic.
01:34His comments led to a backlash that the Real Madrid forward has now apologized for.
01:39In China, jokes about Mao, who died in 1976, are seen as disrespectful and touch on a sensitive political and
01:48national issue.
01:49Welcome to the program. I'm Stefan Krober.
01:52But first, to the election in Israel, where no alliance of parties has secured the necessary majority.
01:58That is not unusual, as no single party has ever won 61 seats outright in the 120-member parliament,
02:05making coalitions the norm.
02:07In their first reactions, Netanyahu and Eisencott attacked each other for playing with Israel's security.
02:14Take a listen.
02:17It is forbidden, simply forbidden, to endanger Israel by forming a government that relies on anti-Zionist Arab parties.
02:29Netanyahu, do not dare to use Israel's security for your political needs.
02:33To all the citizens of Israel, I say already now, I can assure you, the era of evasion has ended.
02:42Joining me now is Elan Levy, a former spokesman of the Israeli government.
02:47Good morning, Elan.
02:49Good morning.
02:50So, simple question.
02:52What just happened and what happens next?
02:55That is not a simple question.
02:57It's an excellent question.
02:58Israelis are waking up this morning, scratching their heads and asking what happened.
03:01I mean, let's bring you an update now from the partial votes that have been counted.
03:06With about 52% of the votes counted, Netanyahu's bloc has 55 seats in the 120-seat Knesset.
03:15The change bloc has 49 seats.
03:18And the Arab parties have surged to a historic 16 seats.
03:23It means now there are really three options, a unity government, a minority government, or fresh elections.
03:32And all of those are going to require someone to surrender on some very serious coalition promises.
03:38The prospect of a minority government headed by Eisencott with the tacit support of the Arab parties is looking a
03:46lot less likely now that it seems they have dramatically underperformed.
03:51There is still a risk that Netanyahu's bloc could pull off that magic number of 61 seats.
03:57The votes are still being counted.
03:58But until we have a clearer picture, it would be pointless to speculate.
04:03Yeah, obviously a very complex situation.
04:05Is this the beginning of the end of the Netanyahu era, or are we underestimating his extraordinary ability to cling
04:13to power?
04:15Oh, no.
04:15This is an extraordinary comeback for Netanyahu.
04:18Despite the October 7th massacre that happened on his watch, despite three years of war since then,
04:24despite huge public unrest and dissatisfaction over his alliance with the ultra-Orthodox parties
04:32and their demand for an exemption from military service,
04:35Netanyahu is the leader of the largest party by a wide margin.
04:40His bloc has a commanding lead over the change bloc.
04:45If we put the Arab parties to one side and we can talk about why those are considered somewhat problematic.
04:51Netanyahu has lost his majority.
04:53It seems it's unlikely that he will hold on to a majority.
04:57But unless someone else manages to form a government, he remains the caretaker prime minister.
05:02Either we go back to elections or someone folds and sues for peace and joins his coalition.
05:07Right.
05:09Eiland, I have to ask you this.
05:10You mentioned the Arab-led parties.
05:12They could hold the balance of power.
05:14But how conceivable is it really that they will decide who becomes Israel next prime minister?
05:20I mean, despite the refusal of several opposition leaders to govern with them.
05:24The possibility of a minority government headed by Eisenkot, at least temporarily,
05:31with the support of some of the Arab parties was floated as an option.
05:36Leaders within the change bloc are warning that would be extremely unpopular
05:41and would backlash and end up giving Netanyahu an even bigger majority in the next election.
05:46As much as anyone wants to see the integration of Arabs into Israeli life,
05:50I think most European listeners would not want to have an Islamist party
05:54or an Arab Communist party sitting in their own government.
05:58Mansour Abbas made big steps to come towards the change bloc
06:02and yet still refuses to call Hamas a terrorist organization.
06:06The Joint List, one of its newly elected candidates,
06:09dedicated their victory to the people of Gaza and occupied Jerusalem.
06:13So they are still kryptonite for most of the mainstream parties.
06:18It's possible that Eisenkot could rely on them to try to form a minority government.
06:23It would be very unpopular and definitely unstable.
06:26All right, Elan Levy, former Israeli government spokesman.
06:28Thank you so much for your analysis this morning.
06:32Now, America is heading for a political showdown and the stakes could hardly be higher.
06:37In just one week, voters will decide who controls Congress
06:40in what is widely seen as a referendum on Donald Trump's presidency.
06:44With Republicans fighting to hold on to power and Democrats hoping for a comeback,
06:49the outcome could reshape Washington and Trump's last two years in the White House.
06:54For more on this, I'm now joined by Keith Branham,
06:57senior advisor on U.S. politics at consulting firm Green Lane,
07:00with more than a decade of experience as a Democratic strategist and campaign manager.
07:05Good morning and thanks for coming on.
07:08Good morning.
07:08So, right now, Democrats have a huge polling advantage.
07:13On the generic ballot, likely voters prefer Democratic candidates over Republicans
07:17by 11 points in their congressional districts.
07:20But when it comes to Senate races, the Democrats' lead narrows to just five points.
07:26Is there still some nail-biting or do Democrats have it in the bag?
07:32There's definitely some nail-biting, but this is far more nail-biting than Republicans would have wanted.
07:38When we came in to 2026, it was understood that the House, because of history, was probably in play for
07:46Democrats.
07:47Democrats probably had a really good chance of winning it.
07:50And the Senate was out of reach.
07:52The map was just not in their favor.
07:53That is how much the politics has changed between January and now.
07:58And there's a few reasons for that.
08:00One, Democrats have recruited really fantastic candidates across some really difficult states that Republicans are used to winning.
08:08And that Donald Trump in 2024 won by high single digits, sometimes double digits.
08:14And, for example, you had a great candidate in Tallarico, in Texas, who won a really competitive primary and is
08:25going up against a Republican candidate who is belated by scandal.
08:29And this is put...
08:30Keith, if I may, I have to ask you this.
08:32Over the past decade, pollsters understated Trump's and Republican's strength.
08:37Are the polls overestimating Democrats yet again?
08:42I would say the polls are not overestimating in that most polls are within the margin of error.
08:49So it is a coin talk across so many of these districts.
08:52Again, where we started in January, that is just how much this landscape changed.
08:58So just like in 2024, where you had a bunch of states that you could have said one way or
09:04another would have gone for Kamala Harris or for Donald Trump in the presidential election,
09:07now you have the same situation here.
09:10Again, that's just how much the map has shifted against Republicans.
09:13Briefly, Keith, to what extent would a Democratic Congress have the ability to roll back Trump's policies?
09:20That is a really good question because right now this Congress has been, I would say, very subservient to the
09:27president.
09:28And the president has shown little interest in governing with Congress.
09:31Now, with Democratic majorities, Democrats will certainly, and they have been very vocal about holding the president accountable and using
09:39their powers of oversight and investigation to try to do so.
09:43I think we are in uncertain times because the president normally in these next two years would go into what
09:48we call the lame duck status.
09:50And we'll probably not get a lot done because, again, we're looking forward to the next presidential administration because we
09:56have another presidential election coming up next year.
09:59All right.
10:00All right.
10:01Thank you so much, Keith Branham, U.S. Election Campaign Insider.
10:05Thank you for your time this morning.
10:16Thank you for your time this morning.
10:36Our correspondent, Sasha Bakulina.
10:38Good morning, Sasha.
10:39So what came out of this phone conversation with Putin?
10:43And does that bring peace talks any closer?
10:46It does, actually.
10:47It was a huge diplomatic step.
10:48But at the same time, it was as delicate and as sensitive, diplomatically speaking, as it gets, Stefan, because both
10:54leaders say that they do represent only their national governments and they do not speak for the European Union.
10:59But still, the question is there and the tension is here.
11:02What about the EU?
11:03Do they represent the European Union?
11:04Do they represent Europe?
11:05They say no, but they did insist that they consulted both Ukraine and the European Union before going into those
11:10negotiations.
11:11Let's take a listen to what Alexander Stoop had to say, commenting on it.
11:15The discussion with President Putin was professional and direct.
11:21And we, of course, as Norway and Finland continue to support Ukraine and work towards a lasting and just peace.
11:32Now, the road towards a meeting with the United States, Ukraine, Russia and Europeans have been paved for Abu Dhabi
11:44sometime in November.
11:48President Zelenskyy has also spoken about the next round of negotiations.
11:53What is he expecting and what conditions is he setting?
11:58He wants two things.
11:59Kyu wants a ceasefire in any shape or form of it and Kyu wants to have direct talks with Russia.
12:05Both of those things Moscow has been rejecting for a very long time.
12:08Also, Moscow has been rejecting any possibility of direct talks with Europe as well, Stefan.
12:13So this is major.
12:14If the first time they allow the possibility of having European negotiators.
12:17At the same time, it's not clear whether Europe will be or the European Union will be represented at the
12:22talks in Abu Dhabi.
12:23So far, it is trilateral format still that is on the agenda.
12:26This is what Volodymyr Zelenskyy said about it.
12:32It is important that Europe is involved in all diplomatic efforts.
12:36Ukraine has always insisted that Europe must be present and must be involved in decision-making.
12:42And this applies to everyone in Europe.
12:44No one should be left out of the process.
12:47I would like to thank everyone who is actively involved and who is helping us.
12:54Our correspondent, Sasha Vakulina, thank you very much.
12:57A political earthquake in Serbia and potentially the end of an era.
13:02After years of protests, mounting anger over corruption and growing opposition to President Aleksandr Vucic,
13:08last Sunday's parliamentary elections have delivered a stunning upset, with the student-led opposition emerging victorious.
13:16But bringing down an entrenched political establishment is one thing.
13:20Governing a deeply divided country is quite another.
13:24So, is Serbia finally turning a page?
13:27Joining me now is Marco Prelek, senior Western Balkans analyst with the International Crisis Group.
13:32Good morning and thanks for being with us.
13:36Good morning.
13:37It's a pleasure to be here.
13:38So, the student movement united people from very different political backgrounds.
13:43Now that their common enemy is gone, what is holding them together?
13:49That really remains to be seen.
13:51I mean, I think the most important thing to keep in mind about the student movement is that it is
13:57not a political party in any sense.
14:00This is really a totally unprecedented thing.
14:03The people that won, none of them are professional politicians.
14:08That was one of the criteria for being listed on the student movement's campaign list.
14:14There's no single leader.
14:17There's no charismatic figure.
14:19They really won the elections purely on the strength of their promise to turn the page after 14 years of
14:27the government of President Pucic.
14:30Serbians voted for change, obviously, particularly an end to corruption.
14:34How quickly can the new leadership deliver and what happens if it fails?
14:40I think this will take a long time.
14:41I mean, there's a lot, you know, it is 14 years of an entrenched system to, first of all, understand
14:48and investigate and then dismantle and replace with something else.
14:53I think there's, I think it's maybe premature to start worrying about what happens if they fail.
14:59They haven't even taken office yet.
15:01I think it's also likely that we overstate the extent to which the society is divided.
15:09A lot of people clung to the President Pucic's party because of the patronage system.
15:16So as that is dismantled, quite a few of them will fall away, leaving a smaller ideologically committed core, as
15:24happened with other parties in similar positions in the past.
15:27Brussels has welcomed the result, but is the EU celebrating too soon?
15:31I mean, do we actually know whether Serbia's new leaders want to bring the country closer to Europe?
15:38Well, they've said they do.
15:39They have been somewhat ambivalent about whether they mean that to mean eventual membership in the European Union,
15:47something which is really under a question mark for a variety of reasons.
15:53But they clearly do seek better relations with the member states of the European Union and with the EU itself
15:59and constructive relations with their neighbors, which is also very important.
16:05All right, Marco Preleg from the International Crisis Group.
16:08Thank you for your insights.
16:10Now, if you're a football fan, you might have heard about it.
16:13Kylian Mappé, the captain of the French national team and one of the sport's global superstars, is in hot water.
16:20What got him there is his unfortunate nickname on social media, The Dictator, over his huge influence on and off
16:27the pitch.
16:28While he was on a French talk show, the Real Madrid forward was asked about the funny online memes about
16:34him.
16:35He then said the one that makes him laugh most is this picture of a man he thinks is a
16:40Chinese dictator.
16:41Those who didn't laugh were Chinese officials.
16:45Mbappé found himself quickly at the center of a diplomatic storm and a fierce backlash.
16:50Sensing that something was wrong, Mbappé then issued the following apology.
16:55My comment was ill-judged and I now understand that it hurt many people in China and in Chinese communities
17:01around the world.
17:02I apologize to everyone.
17:05My words have upset.
17:06I'm sincerely sorry.
17:09Is that the end of it?
17:11Let's bring in Irish sports journalist and football expert, Ken Early.
17:15Good morning and good to see you, Ken.
17:18Good morning.
17:18Good to see you too.
17:19So, is the lesson learned here that when you're a football star, never joke about leaders who died half a
17:26century ago?
17:29Well, it's not a rule that many players have actually broken before now.
17:35And I'm sure Mbappé was as surprised as anybody to discover that his comments made some six months ago had
17:42caused such offense in China.
17:46But it's not the first time that something along these lines has happened.
17:49And the German player, Mesut Ozil, who played for Arsenal at the time in 2019, posted on social media about
17:58the plight of the Uyghur people in China.
18:01And unlike what Mbappé has done, his was actually direct political criticism of China over what's happening with the Uyghur
18:08people there.
18:10And in that instance, well, they said, okay, Arsenal won't be on Chinese television anymore.
18:16And Mesut Ozil will not be mentioned on Chinese social media.
18:19And Arsenal, his club, quickly issued a response distancing themselves, saying this is his opinion, not ours.
18:25And Ozil was, in fact, sold not long after that, although I don't think it was for that reason.
18:30But these types of things have happened before.
18:33And Ken, at least three Chinese companies have already cut ties with Mbappé.
18:37How much money could this controversy cost him?
18:39And how serious is the damage to his global brand?
18:43I don't think it's going to cause serious economic problems for Kylian Mbappé.
18:49Obviously, nobody wants to lose sponsors.
18:51I did see that Javier Tebas, who is the head of La Liga in Spain, went to visit the Chinese
18:58ambassador in Spain to apologize,
19:02which suggests that he at least sees it as potentially a problem if, you know, Real Madrid games aren't going
19:07to be shown on Chinese television.
19:08Now, I'm sure they will be.
19:09What usually happens is there's an angry response from China, and then there's an institutional apology, and then things get
19:19smoothed over.
19:20But it sort of shows this situation.
19:23Clubs, sports leagues want to market to a global marketplace.
19:26But that global marketplace is divided into different political regimes.
19:31And increasingly, political statements of any kind, and Mbappé's wasn't even a political statement.
19:36He was simply laughing at a meme someone had presented to him, which had some political, satirical political content,
19:44that any political statement is going to cause commercial issues.
19:48Okay, Ken Early, Irish sports journalist, thank you very much for your thoughts on this, this morning.
19:54And that does it for us today.
19:56Thank you for watching.
19:57I'm Stefan Grobe, and I'll see you tomorrow.

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