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University of Cambridge researchers estimate Arctic winter sea ice may decline by about 1 million square kilometers more than earlier predictions indicated, in a study published in Nature Geoscience. They analyzed a biomarker from ice-associated algae preserved in sediment cores dating to about 6,000 years ago and compared the evidence with 27 climate models. Before adjustment, the models collectively overpredicted winter ice; weighting them removed that bias and narrowed some projections by up to 85 percent. Winter sea ice reached its lowest annual maximum in the satellite record in March 2025, while the adjusted projections show revised estimates of future ice levels.

Disclosure: This video contains stock footage and content created or enhanced using AI-assisted tools.
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00:00arctic winter sea ice could shrink by about one million square kilometers more than predicted that is the finding of
00:06researchers at the university of cambridge they looked at sediment cores from about six thousand years ago when the arctic
00:12was warmer
00:13the cores hold a chemical marker from algae that live in sea ice the team compared that evidence with twenty
00:19seven climate models before adjusting the models together over predicted winter ice giving more weight to models that matched the
00:27evidence removed that bias
00:28in some projections it narrowed the range of outcomes by up to eighty five percent models may also underestimate snowfall
00:36in southeastern greenland and rainfall in the mediterranean winter sea ice hit its lowest yearly peak in the satellite record
00:43in march twenty twenty five it matched that record in twenty twenty six researchers say that could have implications for
00:49the greenland ice sheet and flooding in southern europe the work was published in the journal nature geoscience
00:55disclosure this video contains stock footage and content created or enhanced using ai assisted tools
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