00:00Not quite as much on the line, but obviously it's the NFL and every game is important.
00:05Patriots win, puts them at 5-2, half game back of Buffalo in the AFC East.
00:10And remember, they beat the Bills in Buffalo.
00:12But they would be a half a game back in the loss column.
00:15A Buffalo or a New England loss, though, drops them to 4-3.
00:20That puts them two full games in the loss column.
00:23Back of the idle Buffalo Bills are off this week.
00:26So, again, not the end of the world.
00:28We're not quite at that point in the NFL season, but we went through here.
00:32And you start to analyze some of these things, wild card factors and everything else.
00:35So, you know, obviously it's a big game for both teams.
00:38But a little bit more on the line for Chicago.
00:40I think a Patriot loss, knowing they beat Buffalo already in Buffalo,
00:45so they get to play them again back in New England.
00:48I think they can accept that a little bit easier than a Chicago Bears loss.
00:52And New England last season, completely different.
00:55Living a little bit of a charmed life, playing the schedule that was just so soft from start to finish.
01:00That's not to say that if you look at some of their remaining games, they do have some tough games.
01:04They play Kansas City.
01:05They play Minnesota.
01:06But, Scott, in the end, they haven't played the Dolphins yet.
01:09And you would assume there's a good shot that they're going to win both of those.
01:12They also play the Jets.
01:13You would assume they're going to win that and maybe even beat the Chargers, too.
01:17So New England is going to be in the playoffs, I think, this season.
01:21But their positioning, I think, is going to be much different.
01:23And, by the way, their positioning didn't matter all that much last year.
01:26They almost lost to Jarrett Stidham.
01:27So I think New England's okay.
01:31You know, I think that they probably finish behind Buffalo and are going to be playing potentially on wildcard weekend.
01:38If things go right for them, as you mentioned, that key victory, if they can beat Buffalo again, then maybe
01:44that would change things for them.
01:45But from a confidence point of view, I still don't think in an AFC championship with any sort of serviceable
01:53quarterback, which they didn't have to see last year, but with any sort of serviceable guy, whether it's Josh Allen
01:57or Patrick Mahomes, it's hard for me to envision New England going back to the Super Bowl.
02:01But credit to them, Scott, because a lot of teams that lose the Super Bowl, you know, and New England
02:07won it, but a lot of teams that even go just generally don't, or excuse me, they lost.
02:12What am I saying?
02:12They lost to Seattle.
02:13A lot of teams, I'm over the place.
02:15A lot of teams, they don't come back and have a good season next year.
02:18That's what I'm trying to say.
02:19Seattle beat New England.
02:21Usually that team hits the skids.
02:23I thought that, maybe watching them the first couple of weeks of the season, but that has not been the
02:26case now.
02:27So I anticipate, you're right, New England probably going to be fine if they lose this one, but nobody should
02:33be surprised if they go to Chicago tonight, play good defense or better defense than what we've seen and end
02:38up beating the Bears.
02:40And, you know, look, they still have the offensive weapons.
02:42A.J. Brown is now one week healthier, one week better, you would assume.
02:45May seems a little bit better.
02:46They finally, Vrabels got those running backs going back and forth with Henderson and Stevenson.
02:50You know, a true coin flip game tonight for me.
02:52Really, really tough one to call.
02:54Yeah, I'll throw you some trends.
02:56People love trends.
02:57Right.
02:57So Patriots 21 and six straight up their last 27 games, obviously going back to the last couple of seasons,
03:0317 and eight against the spread.
03:05So last year, though, a lot of this is based on last year that they were so good against inferior
03:10competition that their numbers were off the wall.
03:13Right.
03:13How about first quarter?
03:15You want to play some goofy things tonight?
03:16They can't figure out, you know, you want to take the three, lay the three right for the game.
03:20First quarter Patriots this season, six and oh against the spread.
03:24They're getting one and a half little juice minus 140 or you could go halftime, Craig, where they are 23
03:32and four against the spread.
03:35Their last 27 games, first half lines.
03:37Again, they're getting one and a half, but no juice.
03:40I mean, that is really like, wow.
03:43You know, again, a lot of those are, you know, you won the game.
03:45So you came out flying as the Patriots do.
03:48You win the game, you dominate.
03:49So you look for reasons why you would have these trends.
03:52It's not like they lost all those games, but it does show you that they, you know, that they come
03:57out ready to play.
03:58No two ways about it.
03:59So whether it's first quarter or first half, maybe you think eventually Chicago is going to wear them down and
04:04get the home win.
04:05But I wouldn't be betting Chicago first half or first quarter.
04:08That's for sure.
04:09Not with those Patriots.
04:10Sometimes the best bet is the one you don't bet.
04:11Right.
04:12Sometimes, all right, I'm not going to bet it, but I'm certainly not going to bet against it now.
04:16Yeah, it certainly goes against Chicago, too.
04:18If you think about it, the Bears have been having leads and letting the teams come back into the game
04:23and get close.
04:23That happened against, I believe it was Tampa.
04:27And then that happened also against Atlanta.
04:29So it seems like the Bears get off to these leads and then teams are able to come back a
04:34little bit on them.
04:35But, you know, I don't know if the Bears are going to win, but I got to tell you, I
04:40caught myself.
04:42Looking at Chicago, Scott, in the offseason and hearing all the stuff with Ben Johnson.
04:46And again, we have very little outside of talking and thinking, wow, you know, maybe this offense is really going
04:50to be good.
04:51And then they threw 59 points down.
04:53And so why do I mention that, Scott?
04:55Like, I don't have any data to back this up.
04:57But if you look historically, you know, every once in a while, there's a team in the NFL that puts
05:01up a 40 and then they go back to being bad.
05:04But it's rare to see a team put 59 points up on the scoreboard and not have a decent offensive
05:09season.
05:10And that's why after that, I'm like, OK, even if the Bears don't average 30 points a game, I certainly
05:15believe in what I'm seeing, that there's a possibility that they take a big jump.
05:19And then they kind of went backwards a little bit.
05:20And then Caleb Williams got hurt.
05:21But I thought with Caleb Williams today being announced as a player of the week in the NFL, their offense
05:26certainly seems better.
05:27I am a believer in Ben Johnson.
05:30This will be a very big test to go against Vrabel and that defense.
05:34And to your point, we'll see if Chicago does relinquish a lead in the first half and able to come
05:39back in the second half.
