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⏱️ CHAPTERS:
0:00 - The BIGGEST Attack of the War on Russia... The Whole Country BURNS
17:53 - Ukraine Just Put Russia Into a DARK AGE With ONE MOVE
36:50 - Something BIG is Brewing in Lithuania
54:58 - Belgium's New F-16s UNLEASHED Over Ukraine... Thank You, Belgium

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Transcript
00:00:01Russia never seems to learn.
00:00:03The Kremlin launches attack after attack against Ukraine from the air,
00:00:07only to act shocked when it gets back what it's sent in spades.
00:00:11Still, October 6th was different.
00:00:13Ukraine hit Russia back, sure, but it did so with a level of fury never seen before.
00:00:18A record-breaking attack across all of Russia has been carried out
00:00:22as Ukraine delivered its revenge tenfold for what Russia has been doing.
00:00:26Russia protests in innocence, of course, but that doesn't change the fact that the country is burning,
00:00:33with the highlight being the oil depot in the capital city that Russia can't afford to lose.
00:00:38We'll be getting to that depot later.
00:00:39First, some numbers.
00:00:41On October 6th, Russia's Defense Ministry claimed that Ukraine unleashed its biggest attack of the war so far.
00:00:47Over the course of 24 hours, 1,750 fixed-wing drones flew into Russian territory,
00:00:54along with 17 Flamingo cruise missile drone hybrids.
00:00:58According to the Russian news agency TASS, Ukraine also unleashed a pair of guided aerial bombs
00:01:03and at least one rocket from a US-made HIMARS, all of which were supposedly shot down.
00:01:09Note that it isn't Ukraine delivering these numbers.
00:01:11It's Russia that is telling us everything as it tries to extract sympathy,
00:01:15being forced to swallow a bitter dose of its own medicine.
00:01:18What we saw on October 6th was a record-breaking attack in more ways than one.
00:01:23Before we explain more, subscribe and tell us what you think in the comments below.
00:01:27And if you want even more from the channel, consider becoming a member for access to exclusive content.
00:01:33The October 6th strike shattered Ukraine's previous record of 1,671 drones launched at Russia in a single night.
00:01:41That record was set back on August 18th, with Russia claiming to have shot down all of the drones that
00:01:46Ukraine launched.
00:01:47The Wild Berries warehouse in Moscow that was set on fire by Ukraine's drones would likely beg to differ.
00:01:53You know, if it were sentient and hadn't been burned to the ground.
00:01:56Within this record lies another, a Russian doll of records, if you will.
00:02:01According to the Kyiv Post, October 6th has seen Ukraine ramp up its use of Flamingo missiles to a level
00:02:06that we've never seen before.
00:02:0817 Flamingo missiles in a single 24-hour period is more than Ukraine has ever fired before.
00:02:14The most we've seen Russia claim to have shot down, often falsely, is six in a single night, with the
00:02:20usual number being closer to three.
00:02:22It looks like Ukraine is going all in on the Flamingo as a damage dealer against Russia.
00:02:27And we did see plenty of damage on October 6th.
00:02:31Moscow was the worst hit of several Russian regions, as you'll soon find out.
00:02:36But across Russia, damage was done.
00:02:37The caveat being that everything that has been reported so far comes from Russian sources, rather than Ukrainian reports.
00:02:44United24 Media reports that Russian sources claim that Ukraine's drones struck 47 private homes in several settlements, including Serpikov, Volokolamsk,
00:02:54Stupino, Dmitrov, Istra, Domodedevo and Narofominsk.
00:03:00An apartment building is also reported to have been struck in a small village named Lobonovo.
00:03:05There are several villages with this name, some in the Vladimir region and another in Pemkrai.
00:03:11We don't know which one Ukraine supposedly hit, but the sheer spread of regions mentioned in these reports shows that
00:03:18all of Russia was on the agenda on October 6th.
00:03:21We're seeing an interesting example of Russian propaganda here, as the country's media can't even seem to agree with itself.
00:03:29It's obvious that Russia is trying to claim that Ukraine's record-breaking strike targeted civilians.
00:03:35That's why it's talking about residential houses and apartments being hit.
00:03:39But at the same time, Russia is also claiming that it shot down all of Ukraine's drones and Flamingo missiles.
00:03:45Which one is it, Russia? You can't have it both ways.
00:03:48While we don't have news of military targets being hit yet, outside of the one we'll reveal in Moscow,
00:03:53we do know that Ukraine achieved something important with its attacks.
00:03:57Ukraine's drones caused mass flight delays and cancellations.
00:04:01According to United24 Media, over 200 flights in and out of Russia were delayed or cancelled as a result of
00:04:07Ukraine's record-breaking attack.
00:04:09Sheremetyevo, which is an airport in Moscow, felt the brunt of this pain, as 106 of its arriving flights were
00:04:15affected, along with 47 departing flights.
00:04:19Vunakovo and Domededevo also reported changes to flights with 51 and 4 alterations or cancellations respectively.
00:04:26Russia should be used to this type of flight disruption by now.
00:04:29In a May report, Medusa revealed that the first five months of 2026 had seen flight delays in Russia practically
00:04:36double when compared to the same period in 2025.
00:04:39Delays of 60 minutes or more had affected 48,600 flights by that point in 2026.
00:04:45Many tens of thousands of other flights were either cancelled or hit with delays of two hours or more.
00:04:50These airport closures have value for Ukraine, especially when it comes to the psychological impact of its long-range strikes.
00:04:57Ukraine wants the Russian people to know that Putin's actions have consequences.
00:05:02Closing airports, thus causing massive disruption, is one of the best ways to do that.
00:05:08Now, when a flight is delayed in Russia, people don't think there is a natural cause behind it.
00:05:13They know it's due to Ukraine's drones.
00:05:16An ever-present reminder that Putin's war has spiralled so far out of control that Russia is now a target.
00:05:23Before we move on to the most heavily hit region, there's another tidbit of information that highlights just how regular
00:05:28an occurrence this type of thing is becoming in Russia.
00:05:31Also on October 6, United24 media reported that another record has been broken.
00:05:36September saw Ukraine carry out more strikes against targets at a range of 20 kilometers or more than it has
00:05:43during any other month of the war.
00:05:44Over 11,000 targets to be exact, with this record also containing another.
00:05:49Ukraine has struck more targets in a month at a range of over 50 kilometers than it ever has before.
00:05:55Guinness World Records must be shaking its collective head in disbelief right now.
00:05:59Ukraine is breaking records left and right.
00:06:02Russia seems to have no real answer for any of it.
00:06:04And so, we come to the real highlight of the October 6th drone strikes.
00:06:07The numbers are impressive, of course, but for Ukraine, the real news is that Moscow was the hardest hit region
00:06:14of the night.
00:06:15Russia's capital has become a target once more.
00:06:18Of the 1,750 drones that Ukraine unleashed against Russia on October 6th, an enormous swarm of 650 headed toward
00:06:26Moscow.
00:06:27Putin's crown jewel city faced an overnight barrage that caused a massive fire at a key location.
00:06:33An oil depot that serves several airports, including some of those that we mentioned earlier.
00:06:37Not that you would know this if you listen to Russian sources.
00:06:40Those sources are all parroting the typical Kremlin line that every drone that Ukraine sends into Russian territory gets shot
00:06:46down.
00:06:47Nothing to see here, folks.
00:06:49Moscow's perfect air defenses are hard at work, so don't pay attention to the acrid smell of burning oil that
00:06:54is filling your nostrils.
00:06:56Moscow's mayor, Sergei Sobyanin, has been forced to publish yet another statement on Telegram informing the region's people that Ukraine's
00:07:03drones have penetrated air defenses.
00:07:05He dressed it up in the usual Russian way, though, stating,
00:07:19That most of them disclaimer is interesting.
00:07:22It seems that Sobyanin knows that he can't hide the fact that Russia was far from achieving a 100%
00:07:28interception rate, even if he didn't want to reveal what Ukraine hit.
00:07:32The Moscow regional governor offered a little more information in his statement.
00:07:35According to Andrei Vorobyov, air defense forces and electronic warfare systems destroyed or suppressed 185 UAVs across 16 municipalities in
00:07:45the Moscow region.
00:07:46It's looking to us like the Moscow authorities can't get their numbers straight.
00:07:50That's hardly surprising for a regime that lies constantly to its own people.
00:07:55What neither of these men report is that Ukraine's drones broke through Moscow's air defenses to strike home on a
00:08:02very valuable target.
00:08:03This is where the oil depot that we mentioned comes into play.
00:08:07Before we go deeper, this is a reminder that you're watching the military show.
00:08:10There's a lot more where this comes from, so make sure that you are subscribed and have notifications enabled if
00:08:16you're getting value from the channel.
00:08:18That oil depot is the Volodarskaya Linear Production and Dispatching Station, or LPDS, which is close to the settlement of
00:08:26Konstantinovo.
00:08:27It's one of the most important oil depots in Moscow, as well as the region's largest.
00:08:32Fires are now burning at the depot.
00:08:34Astra has shared videos and images confirming that the facility has been hit by Ukraine's drones.
00:08:40Excelenover Plus has also reported on the strike, sharing a video shot by a civilian, which shows the scale of
00:08:46the blaze and is becoming a regular sight at Russian oil facilities, a black plume of smoke rising into the
00:08:51sky.
00:08:52This is what Putin's war has earned his people. Oil burns, fires rage, and every night brings with it the
00:08:58possibility of yet more drones.
00:09:00The facility Ukraine hit in Moscow is operated by Transnefteproduct, which is an offshoot of the Transneft Oil Pipeline Company.
00:09:08According to the Kyiv Post, the depot handles 3 million tons of oil products per year, including diesel, gasoline, and
00:09:15aviation fuel.
00:09:17Now, remember those three airports we mentioned earlier, Vunakovo, Domodedevo, and Sheremetyevo.
00:09:22All three are supplied with fuel by the depot that Ukraine just set on fire.
00:09:26Delays and cancellations may be about to become much more common in Moscow's airports.
00:09:31In its report on the depot strike, Ukraine today reveals that witnesses at the scene of the attack claim that
00:09:37at least two of the fuel tanks at the Volodarskaya LPDS were set on fire.
00:09:41It's unclear how much fuel those tanks contained.
00:09:44The depot is home to at least 24 types of tanks split across three main variants and some special tanks
00:09:50required for fuel oil.
00:09:52Collectively, those tanks can hold 250,000 cubic meters of product.
00:09:56So some back of the napkin math tells us that Ukraine may have just destroyed about 20,800 cubic meters
00:10:02of fuel.
00:10:03That's an approximation.
00:10:04The number could climb higher, especially if it turns out that Ukraine destroyed more than two tanks.
00:10:09For Russia, this oil depot catastrophe in Moscow stings even more because it only comes a few days after Ukraine
00:10:16unleashed another depot strike elsewhere in Russia.
00:10:19On October 2nd, the news broke that Ukraine had unleashed almost 650 drones in an attack that covered 14 Russian
00:10:26regions.
00:10:26The main target appears to have been an oil refinery and chemical plant, both in the Volgograd region.
00:10:32But in Samara, Ukraine's drone struck a massive oil storage facility, the Samara LPDS.
00:10:38Fires were reported at the facility, which Astra says is home to 71 storage tanks and has a capacity of
00:10:441.6 million cubic meters of oil.
00:10:47We're starting to see a pattern here.
00:10:48It looks like Russia's LPDS have become Ukraine's latest targets as it gears up for a winter where it wants
00:10:54to cause as much pain to Russia as it can.
00:10:57Returning to the Moscow strike, Russia's inability to properly protect its capital city has been exposed once more.
00:11:03Remember that Moscow is supposed to be the most well-guarded Russian region.
00:11:07It has to be, both because it represents the heart of Putin's power and because Putin has been trying to
00:11:13shield Muscovites from the repercussions of the war that he started.
00:11:16Whatever illusion of protection that Putin had created is now shattered.
00:11:21Muscovites know that their region is now as much of a target as any other in Russia.
00:11:26And if they needed any reminding, they only need to look up at the cloud of smoke still rising from
00:11:31the Volodarskaya LPDS.
00:11:33So what has Russia's response been to all of this?
00:11:36Outside of reporting a near-perfect record of shooting down Ukraine's drones, which hasn't been verified,
00:11:41and seems to be made moot by the oil depot success, the Kremlin has kept quiet.
00:11:46But we have a feeling we know what Russia is going to try to claim.
00:11:50This was a terrorist attack by Ukraine.
00:11:53Just a day before Ukraine sent its swarm of drones, Putin's favorite mouthpiece Dmitry Peskov accused Ukraine of expanding its
00:12:00attacks against Russia's civilian economy.
00:12:03What our armed forces are doing now is exacting retribution for that.
00:12:07Ukraine must, and certainly will, pay the price for these actions, Peskov declared.
00:12:12Russia is trying to claim that whatever it does from here on out, and perhaps what it has done so
00:12:16far, is retaliation for Ukraine's actions.
00:12:19Indeed, the day after Ukraine's record-breaking strike, Russia unleashed one of its own, which Al Jazeera reports has killed
00:12:26at least 20 people.
00:12:27The Kremlin claims retaliation, but everybody knows that Ukraine's October 6th strike was revenge for what Russia has done and
00:12:34continues to do all over Ukraine.
00:12:37Let's take a look at the week or so leading up to the Ukrainian strike.
00:12:41On September 30th, Reuters reported that Russia had carried out a strike against Ukraine's energy grid in a precursor to
00:12:47what the Kremlin wants to do this winter.
00:12:49That barrage left seven Ukrainians dead, Reuters reports, and it came on the back of several days of drone attacks
00:12:56against Kyiv.
00:12:57With October 4th came a strike against the northern bridge in Kyiv, which injured two people.
00:13:02That attack was timed to come not long after Germany's chancellor, Friedrich Merz, arrived in Kyiv ahead of an announcement
00:13:09that Germany will deliver $1.1 billion in military aid to Ukraine.
00:13:13On October 5th, Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky blasted Russia for carrying out what Zelensky described as a horrific attack against
00:13:21a civilian vessel carrying corn in the Black Sea.
00:13:25The attack killed the ship's captain and led to one sailor being unaccounted for and 11 crew members requiring an
00:13:31emergency evacuation.
00:13:33Peskov and his ilk want to talk about retaliation, but the reality they try to hide is that it's Ukraine
00:13:38conducting the revenge attacks.
00:13:40Russia started this war, and it's responsible for thousands of drones and hundreds of missiles being fired into Ukraine every
00:13:47month.
00:13:48It's Russia that is the terrorist.
00:13:50Ukraine is responding in kind, only with strikes that don't directly target civilians. They target oil.
00:13:56And if there's one thing we can take away from October 6th, it's that Ukraine has just delivered a whole
00:14:01lot more pain to Russia.
00:14:02What happened in Moscow is just the latest example of Ukraine's revenge campaign, as it intensifies strikes against Russia's oil
00:14:10industry.
00:14:11The goal is simple. Take out as much oil infrastructure as possible to cut off the economic lifeline that allows
00:14:18Putin to wages war.
00:14:19The strategy is working, at least that's the impression we get when we hear US President Donald Trump's claims that
00:14:25now it's the strikes against Russian oil that are causing higher gasoline and diesel prices all over the world.
00:14:30What's driving up gasoline is no longer the Strait of Hormuz, because record numbers of barrels are now coming out
00:14:35on almost daily basis.
00:14:37But the word refineries, where Russia's are being blown up by Ukraine, and where ours are being closed up in
00:14:42blue states like California by the Democrats, Trump used Truth Social to declare on October 5th.
00:14:48To call this statement politicized would be an understatement. Trump is trying to point score against the Democrats ahead of
00:14:54the midterms.
00:14:55And a cynic might also argue that he's hoping to use Ukraine's oil strategy to distract away from the issues
00:15:01that the repeated closures of the Strait of Hormuz have caused.
00:15:04Still, he's not wrong about the fact that Ukraine's strikes are having an impact.
00:15:08But that impact is being felt in Russia far more than anywhere else.
00:15:12In an October 5th report, ABC News revealed that Ukraine claims it has now knocked out 51% of Russia's
00:15:19oil refining capacity.
00:15:20That means Russia is struggling to make the gasoline, diesel and aviation fuel that is stored in facilities like the
00:15:26one Ukraine hit on October 6th.
00:15:28We can see the expansion of Ukraine's oil infrastructure strategy happen in real time.
00:15:33First, take out the means of production, then take out the product that is already in storage.
00:15:38An oily Ouroboros of strikes has been created by Ukraine, and it's put Russia in a position where even Putin
00:15:44has to admit that the attacks are having an impact.
00:15:48ABC says that Putin claimed on October 1st that Ukraine's oil strikes have cost Russia about 1% of its
00:15:54gross domestic product.
00:15:55If Putin says 1%, the real number is likely much higher.
00:15:59Russia's diesel output has collapsed by 30%, drivers are having to wait up to 40 hours at gas stations, ABC
00:16:05claims.
00:16:06And Ukraine is hitting refineries at a rate of 1 every 3 days.
00:16:10None of this is going away for Russia.
00:16:13October 6th was just an example that Ukraine can strike more oil infrastructure if and when it feels the need
00:16:18to do so.
00:16:19And more is coming.
00:16:20We know that because Zelensky told us.
00:16:22On October 3rd, Reuters reported that Ukraine's president had announced that Ukraine will be doubling down on its oil infrastructure
00:16:30strikes.
00:16:30Why? Because Russia has announced the new airstrike doctrine, which is designed to force people into abandoning Kyiv and other
00:16:37major Ukrainian cities.
00:16:38Again, we see that theme of Ukrainian revenge coming into play.
00:16:42The new doctrine has been uncovered by Ukraine's intelligence services, which have managed to unearth secret Russian documents that reveal
00:16:49what the Kremlin has planned as the war moves closer to reaching its fifth year.
00:16:54We saw documents and we know that they allow them to attack infrastructure, logistics and especially attack in the cities,
00:17:00villages, everywhere, roads, schools, hospitals, Zelensky told Reuters.
00:17:05The Kremlin hasn't commented on this shift in policy.
00:17:08Ukraine doesn't expect any confirmation.
00:17:10It will just mete out revenge.
00:17:13We have to respond in any way we can.
00:17:15With their attacks on our energy, we have to respond on their energy.
00:17:18First of all, oil refineries, etc.
00:17:21What gives money to them for this war?
00:17:22Zelensky says.
00:17:23October 6th may well be the start of something much bigger.
00:17:26If Russia follows through on its new doctrine, the record-breaking 24 hours of strikes that Ukraine just unleashed could
00:17:33be a precursor to much more to come for Moscow and the rest of Russia.
00:17:36To make those types of strikes possible, Ukraine has to wipe out as many of Russia's air defences as it
00:17:41can.
00:17:42It's been doing just that.
00:17:44September saw Ukraine take out a record number of Russian air defences, bringing total losses to over 1,600 units.
00:17:53Frankly, we're surprised that it's taken this long.
00:17:56One of the most obvious targets for Ukraine to strike has just been hit.
00:18:00Scratch that, several of these very obvious targets are burning after being paid visits by Ukrainian drones.
00:18:07With this one move, Ukraine is plunging Russia into a dark age.
00:18:12No more convenience.
00:18:14Bye-bye internet.
00:18:15Every modern convenience enjoyed by Russians is on the verge of disappearing,
00:18:19as Putin's promise that the so-called special military operation would change nothing for the average Russian is broken once
00:18:26more.
00:18:27Ukraine finally went and did it.
00:18:29The data centers are being hit.
00:18:31This is what we know so far.
00:18:33It all started on October 8th.
00:18:36That's when Ukraine's drones flew deep into Sosovo in the Ryazana blast of Russia.
00:18:41Those drones had traveled around 580 kilometers to reach their target, which was a Russian industrial site nestled deep in
00:18:48the region.
00:18:49The site just so happened to be home to a data center operated by Yandex,
00:18:53which is Russia's largest search engine provider and the closest thing that Russia has to a homegrown version of Google.
00:19:00The drones hit their target.
00:19:01We'll reveal the damage they did in a moment.
00:19:04But first, are you enjoying our reporting?
00:19:06Subscribe and share your thoughts below.
00:19:08And if you'd like to support the real people behind the channel, consider becoming a member for exclusive content.
00:19:14By 1.31 a.m. Moscow time, Yandex's cloud portal was reporting that power outages were occurring in the RooCentral
00:19:221B availability zone.
00:19:23In the hours that followed, report after report was sent to DownDetector, complaining about lost Yandex services, including search and
00:19:31email.
00:19:32Another service named Detector 404 reported that it had received 58,268 user complaints in the days following the strike.
00:19:41Yandex also took a financial hit.
00:19:43The company's proxy stock on the Moscow Stock Exchange was down 3% in the wake of the strike.
00:19:49This is the one thing Russia feared the most.
00:19:51Ukraine is targeting the data centers, and in doing so, it's plunging Russians into the Dark Ages.
00:19:57There would be much worse to come.
00:19:59The aftermath of the strike saw Yandex put out a press release confirming the attack,
00:20:04while claiming that its core services have survived, but others might experience outages.
00:20:10But as Yandex and Russia scrambled to make excuses, independent media outlets were already showcasing the scale of the damage.
00:20:19One of those outlets is Astra, which is a media outlet that should be very well known to regular viewers
00:20:25of our channel.
00:20:25On October 8th, Astra published a report stating,
00:20:29Astra OSINT analyst has determined from eyewitness footage that the fire originated at the SASTA machine tool plant,
00:20:36which according to Wikimapia also houses the Yandex DC data center.
00:20:42A two for one strike then.
00:20:44Ukraine always seems to know how to get the most out of its drones.
00:20:47Astra also posted geo-located images of the strike zone, along with a short video showcasing the scale of the
00:20:54blaze.
00:20:55It's massive.
00:20:56The sort of fire that can rip through an entire data center before emergency services are able to put it
00:21:02out.
00:21:02We see an entire roof engulfed in flames and smoke, offering a hint to the photographs that would come later.
00:21:09Those photos would arrive courtesy of satellites on October 9th.
00:21:13United24 media shared them, along with revealing that Yandex was forced into a complete shutdown of its operations at Sosovo
00:21:20due to Ukraine's attack.
00:21:22We see a blackened roof and clear fire damage to the facility's infrastructure.
00:21:27What we see here is Ukraine taking out a major component of the Yandex cloud infrastructure.
00:21:33A facility with an electrical capacity of 12 megawatts that accommodates tens of thousands of servers has just gone up
00:21:40in smoke.
00:21:41But if Russia thought that the nightmare was over after just one night, it was sorely mistaken.
00:21:46More strikes were coming.
00:21:48Before we get to them, it's worth revisiting that brief mention we made of a Russian tooling plant on the
00:21:53same site as the devastated data center.
00:21:56That plant is named Sasta, and according to Exilenova Plus, it was also hit during Ukraine's deadly October 8th strike.
00:22:03That plant is responsible for the production of CNC metalwork machining tools, including turn-mill systems, 5-axis machining centers,
00:22:11and more.
00:22:12Why does that matter?
00:22:13Well, those types of tools are key to producing the high-precision metal parts and assemblies used in a lot
00:22:20of Russia's weapons.
00:22:21Those weapons include missiles, such as the Iskander missiles that Russia has been using to devastate Ukrainian cities, says Militanyi.
00:22:29Ukraine's drones were busy on October 8th, though you wouldn't know that if you listened to Ryazan Oblast governor Pavel
00:22:36Malkov.
00:22:37Tonight, two UAVs were shot down over the territory of the Ryazan region, the governor said, while making a brief
00:22:44mention of the roof of an enterprise-catching fire.
00:22:47As usual, Russia is trying to obscure information because it doesn't want to admit that Ukraine just hit something very
00:22:54valuable.
00:22:55But Russia can't hide the damage for long, especially not when major cities like Moscow and St. Petersburg felt the
00:23:02impact.
00:23:03According to the Kyiv Independent, many of the reports about Yandex services being down stemmed from those two cities and
00:23:10started flowing at about 4pm local time.
00:23:13The outages spread almost as fast as the fires. By the evening, it wasn't just Yandex that was affected.
00:23:19RooTube, the Russian Railways website and several online retail sites were also taken offline, all because of what happened at
00:23:26Sosovo.
00:23:27By the night of October 8th, Yandex was desperately trying to recover. A few hours later, a second data center
00:23:34was hit.
00:23:34On October 9th, Ukraine's drones flew into the Kaluga region of Russia. Their target was the region's data center.
00:23:42Also operated by Yandex, that data center is one of Russia's largest, reports the BBC.
00:23:48It spans 130,000 square meters and sucks up enough electricity to supply 220,000 UK homes annually.
00:23:56That is not the sort of site that Yandex wants to see being hit by Ukrainian drones.
00:24:00But that's exactly what happened on October 9th, as those drones took out several modules of the data center, knocking
00:24:07them out of operation.
00:24:08We don't fully know what that means in context yet, though we do know that this site is large enough
00:24:13to accommodate 3,800 server racks.
00:24:16Many of those racks will have just gone offline. Yet more damage was done to Yandex and its many services
00:24:22throughout Russia.
00:24:23This second attack confirmed what the Kremlin and the suits in the Yandex boardroom would have feared after Sosovo went
00:24:29down.
00:24:30We're seeing a Wild Berries replay here.
00:24:33As with Wild Berries, Ukraine isn't satisfied with one site.
00:24:37It's going after everything that underpins Russia's digital infrastructure, and it's hitting hard, fast and repeatedly.
00:24:44And if you needed any evidence of that, an interesting piece of news broke right as we were about to
00:24:49send this video into production.
00:24:50A third Yandex site has been hit. This is exactly the kind of thing that we cover at the military
00:24:56show.
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00:25:07Oh, Vladimir, this war isn't treating you well, is it?
00:25:10We're not talking about Putin here either.
00:25:12Ukraine's third Yandex strike targeted the Russian region of Vladimir, with news of the attack breaking on October 11th.
00:25:19UKR Media was among the first to report on what happened, as it claimed that Ukraine's strike had devastated a
00:25:25data center in Vladimir, bringing the entire enterprise to a screeching halt.
00:25:30This attack also marked the third against Russian data centers in four days.
00:25:34It appears the attack began on October 10th and carried on through into the early hours of October 11th.
00:25:41And as we saw in Kaluga, Yandex was forced to post a message on its Yandex cloud webpage, noting a
00:25:46power cut to the Rue Central 1A service area.
00:25:49This is the service area that the server infrastructure built in Vladimir supplies.
00:25:54And again, just like Kaluga, we saw a similar response from Russian authorities.
00:25:58The Vladimir regional governor, Alexander Avdaev, would only confirm that a fire had broken out at an infrastructure facility.
00:26:06Vague nonsense like this can't hide the fact that Russia's data centers are burning.
00:26:10The Russian people see it, and more importantly, they feel it.
00:26:15Every website that goes down, every email that fails to send, and every online order that can't be placed is
00:26:21a result of Ukraine's devastating data center strikes.
00:26:24Ukraine is striking hard at the heart of Russia's convenience to deliver a clear message to Putin's people that their
00:26:31leader has made their lives harder than ever before.
00:26:33Back to the dark ages you go.
00:26:36The Kyiv Post adds that Ukraine's October 11th strike targeted a facility that houses 2,880 server racks,
00:26:43and it was strong enough to shut down over 80 digital platforms that rely on Yandex architecture to operate.
00:26:50Those services include plenty of Yandex ripoffs of Western tech, including Yandex Music, Yandex's Alice voice assistant, and the telemost
00:26:59video conferencing tool.
00:27:00We're seeing what we have seen so often from Ukraine with its long-range strikes.
00:27:04This is the systematic targeting of a key part of Russia's domestic infrastructure, designed to limit access to the internet
00:27:11for everyday people and military sites alike.
00:27:14It's such a simple approach to take, yet Ukraine does an immense amount of damage with it, and Yandex is
00:27:20going to be very worried about what comes next.
00:27:22As Reuters points out, Yandex operates five data centers throughout Russia.
00:27:28Three of those data centers have already been hit, including the Sosovo hub that also happens to host two of
00:27:33the three supercomputers that Yandex purchased to train its Yandex GPT AI model.
00:27:40Yandex hasn't revealed whether those supercomputers are still operational.
00:27:43But right now, the company has bigger fish to fry. Three data centers are down, two more remain, and if
00:27:50the four days of Ukrainian strikes show us anything,
00:27:53it's that Yandex doesn't have the air defense infrastructure in place to stop Ukraine's drones.
00:27:57The obvious question is when the other two data centers will go down.
00:28:02We'd be willing to bet that it won't be long until all five are turning to flaming wrecks.
00:28:07That brings us nicely into what Ukraine's latest strategy shows us and what it means for the future of the
00:28:12war.
00:28:13And we're going to start by pointing out something important.
00:28:16These data center attacks are a response to what Russia has been doing over the last couple of months.
00:28:21We mentioned that data centers are a seemingly obvious target, to the point where it's taken almost five years for
00:28:28them to be visited by Ukraine's drones.
00:28:30We can only assume that Ukraine was holding fire, waiting for the right moment to strike.
00:28:36That right moment came when Russia started attacking Ukraine's data centers.
00:28:41Starting in September, Russia started striking Ukraine's data centers, with some being subjected to repeated attacks.
00:28:46On October 1st, Russia hit a data center located on Predslovinska Street in Kyiv, which followed on from several other
00:28:54strikes the months prior.
00:28:55The attack shut the data center down, and it came on the back of a pair of attacks against the
00:29:00Kozmanova data center, also in Kyiv.
00:29:03A few days later, on October 6th, the news broke that Russia had also hit the D-line.ua data
00:29:09center in Kyiv, taking it offline completely.
00:29:11In late September alone, at least six Ukrainian data centers were targeted, and the Kremlin made it clear why it
00:29:18was adopting this strategy.
00:29:19These data centers process intelligence for Ukraine's military, Russia declared, which makes them legitimate targets.
00:29:26That was the catalyst.
00:29:27If Russia is going to declare data centers as legitimate military targets, that's all Ukraine needs to hear to finally
00:29:33start attacking Yandex.
00:29:34After all, Russia can't claim these were terrorist attacks.
00:29:38The Kremlin has just declared that data centers can be hit because of whatever military functions Russia claims they serve.
00:29:43No less than Ukraine's president, Volodymyr Zelensky, has confirmed that what we've seen from Ukraine since October 8th is a
00:29:51mirror strategy.
00:29:52Revenge is on Ukraine's mind, as Zelensky declares, we always respond in kind.
00:29:57You all know that they have been and are striking our data centers, so we responded to them.
00:30:02It seems that Russia believed that it would be able to start data center strikes without suffering from any Ukrainian
00:30:07retaliation.
00:30:08Putin's plan, as it always seems to be, is to make life untenable for the civilians in Ukraine's cities, and
00:30:15especially in the capital of Kyiv.
00:30:16But the Kremlin has miscalculated.
00:30:18First, Putin seems to believe that Russia is fighting the same war in 2026 as it was in 2022.
00:30:24In other words, a war where Ukraine can't immediately respond to what Russia is doing with long-range attacks of
00:30:30its own.
00:30:31October 8th and onward serve as a timely reminder to Putin that Russia can't have it all its own way
00:30:35in the long-range game.
00:30:37But there's something more important that the Kremlin seems to have overlooked.
00:30:41Striking Ukraine's data centers causes damage, of that there is no doubt.
00:30:44However, Russia has miscalculated the extent of that damage.
00:30:49Ukraine has a lot of friends in European places, and those friends can help Ukraine to survive Russia's assaults on
00:30:56its data centers.
00:30:57As the Atlantic Council reported in May, Ukraine started a process of migrating its most critical data services from domestic
00:31:05servers into Western cloud infrastructure.
00:31:08By the middle of 2022, over 10 petabytes of data from universities, Ukrainian ministries, and more had been migrated.
00:31:16Ukraine anticipated all of this happening years before Russia started to attack its data centers.
00:31:21Now, this doesn't mean that Ukraine is out of the woods.
00:31:24Domestic data centers are still very important, especially when it comes to speed on the battlefield.
00:31:29But the key here is that Ukraine has essentially backed up its key functions outside of its own territory.
00:31:35Can we say the same for Russia?
00:31:37We know that Russia has been using the cloud platforms offered by the likes of Amazon, Google, and Microsoft to
00:31:44help coordinate its missile strikes.
00:31:46Ukraine itself revealed this following a May cyber investigation.
00:31:49However, these are Western companies that could be compelled to stop providing what Russia needs for its attacks through sanctions.
00:31:55If that were to happen, Russia would have to rely primarily on its domestic infrastructure, much of which is now
00:32:02burning.
00:32:02The Atlantic Council points out that Russia has been attempting to build digital resilience through a combination of sovereign control
00:32:10and redundancy.
00:32:10But the former of these strategies exposes a weakness.
00:32:14If Russia wants to own its data infrastructure, that means it needs to keep as much of its digital architecture
00:32:20as possible in-house.
00:32:21That makes said architecture a static target for Ukraine to hit, and it's unclear how Russia can recover.
00:32:27This is the Kremlin's miscalculation.
00:32:30Ukraine can survive these data center attacks with the help of its allies, but it isn't clear just how much
00:32:36Russia can rely on overseas providers to help it when its sovereign infrastructure comes under attack.
00:32:41Given this situation, you would think that the Kremlin would respond to Ukraine's attacks by doing everything that it can
00:32:48to keep the Yandex data centers safe.
00:32:51After all, there are just two more waiting for visits from Ukraine's drones.
00:32:56However, Russia has gone in the opposite direction, as one of its lawmakers has called on data center owners to
00:33:02set up their own air defenses to prevent a repeat of what we've seen between October 8th and 11th.
00:33:08That call comes from the first deputy chairman of the State Duma Defense Committee, Alexei Zoravlev, who criticized the data
00:33:15centers he'd seen for the lack of defenses.
00:33:17There are no anti-drone nets in sight, no surveillance teams, there are absolutely no protective measures at all, Zoravlev
00:33:26declared in the wake of the Sosovo attack.
00:33:29Ukraine will be happy to hear that.
00:33:31Perhaps this wasn't the smartest thing for you to reveal, Mr. Zoravlev.
00:33:35What we've just seen here is one of Russia's key defense figures admitting that the Kremlin can't provide air defenses
00:33:41needed to protect some of Russia's most critical assets.
00:33:44This is becoming something of a running theme in Russia.
00:33:47Back in May, the Moscow Times reported that Russia had approved allowing private firms to purchase heavy weapons to defend
00:33:54their assets against Ukraine's drones.
00:33:56Fast forward to September and the Wall Street Journal revealed that the Kremlin has created an official decree stating that
00:34:03any company that doesn't take responsibility for its own air defense could be subjected to temporary state seizure.
00:34:09The Kremlin may be looking at Ukraine's attacks as an opportunity to seize lucrative companies for its own purposes.
00:34:17Compelling those companies to handle their own air defense isn't the strong move that Putin believes it to be.
00:34:21It's an admission that Russia's air defenses are so stretched that they need, not want but need, private enterprises to
00:34:28spend their money on defending themselves.
00:34:31Yandex clearly hasn't been doing that. Its remaining data centers have just become prime targets, both for Ukraine and a
00:34:38greedy Kremlin that may believe it can do a better job of running those data centers if they're state controlled.
00:34:44Ukraine would probably be happy to see the Kremlin seize Yandex assets because it knows that the Russian state won't
00:34:51be able to do what Yandex is doing anywhere near as effectively as it needs to be done.
00:34:55This is a company that has managed to set itself up as Russia's digital foundation.
00:35:00IntelliNews says that Yandex has captured about 70% of Russia's search market, making it the first port of call
00:35:06for millions of people when they're shopping online or searching for information.
00:35:10Yandex is investing in developing AI models, including sovereign models that use no foreign components.
00:35:15But the reason for all this success is that Yandex is a private enterprise. If the Kremlin gets its mucky
00:35:21paws on the company, state controlled corruption and bureaucracy will follow.
00:35:26Ukraine may cripple the data centers. Putin's lackeys would ruin Yandex as a functioning part of the Russian digital ecosystem.
00:35:33For the Russian people, the attacks on Yandex data centers are just another brutal reminder that Putin has broken his
00:35:40promise to them.
00:35:41The convenience of modern life that Russians enjoy is being whittled away by Ukraine, bit by broken bit.
00:35:48As more data centers go down, internet outages and the loss of business critical services will become the norm inside
00:35:55Russia.
00:35:55Those losses are compounded by fuel shortages caused by Ukraine's attacks on Russian refineries, as well as the Wildberry strikes
00:36:02we mentioned earlier, which are crippling Russia's digital economy.
00:36:06Right now, 80% of Wildberry's largest warehouses have been burned to the ground.
00:36:11Three-fifths of the country's most important digital providers' data centers are on fire and there will be more to
00:36:17come.
00:36:17The Kiev Independent reports that Ukraine claims that 51% of Russia's oil refining is out of commission.
00:36:24Putin has gone from promising his people that Russia will never be touched by Ukraine to practically begging them to
00:36:30fend for themselves as the repercussions of his invasion ripple throughout Russia.
00:36:34We're only seeing the start.
00:36:37More Russian data centers are going to burn as Ukraine plunges Russia deeper into a dark age that is entirely
00:36:43Putin's fault.
00:36:44And while the data centers are burning, a deadly plague may be on the verge of spreading throughout Russia.
00:36:50Give us American nukes.
00:36:52That's the message Lithuania has sent to NATO as tensions reach boiling point between Russia and the Baltic states.
00:36:59A deterrent is needed, something to stop Putin from going overboard and launching an attack against one of NATO's smallest
00:37:07members.
00:37:08US troops may already be returning.
00:37:11But will they be bringing nukes with them?
00:37:13And if so, what would that mean for NATO's posture against Russia as the prospect of all-out war edges
00:37:20closer to reality?
00:37:21On October 6th, the news broke that Lithuania's parliament had made a massive move.
00:37:27A vote was held on a constitutional amendment that would end the country's long-standing ban on stationing weapons of
00:37:35mass destruction on Lithuanian territory.
00:37:37The vote passed with a massive majority.
00:37:41106 lawmakers voted for the new amendment, with 18 against and a further 6 abstaining from the vote altogether.
00:37:48Opponents of the amendment are already calling for a referendum, but the lifting of the ban on nuclear weapons is
00:37:53picking up steam.
00:37:55There is now a crack in the door.
00:37:57But more has to be done to boot that door wide open.
00:38:00We'll explain more in a moment, but first, if real, human-made military reporting matters to you, subscribe and tell
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00:38:13The vote we've just seen gets the wheels in motion.
00:38:16A second and final vote that rubber stamps the decision is set to be held no earlier than three months
00:38:21after the first vote.
00:38:23The schedule for the second vote is already in place.
00:38:25The Speaker of Lithuania's Parliament, Jūsas Olekas, has already declared that the vote on the amendment is scheduled to take
00:38:33place on January 12, 2027.
00:38:36It needs to pass with support from at least 94 of the 141 members of Lithuania's Parliament.
00:38:42Early indications are that the amendment will fly through.
00:38:46What we see here is twofold.
00:38:48First, Lithuania is working on dismantling Article 137 of its constitution, which is a massive move in its own right.
00:38:56Second, the message is being sent to the US with this vote.
00:39:00Lithuania wants American nuclear weapons on its territory.
00:39:04Article 137 of the Lithuanian constitution is expressed in plain language.
00:39:09There may not be any weapons of mass destruction and foreign military bases on the territory of the Republic of
00:39:15Lithuania, it declares.
00:39:17The clarity of this article tells you how serious Lithuania has been about it ever since it became an independent
00:39:22state free of Soviet control.
00:39:25Article 137 existed to ensure that nothing like that Soviet era of the country's history could happen again.
00:39:31But the situation in 2026 is such that Lithuania has to make some tough choices.
00:39:37Removing Article 137 may also remove a safeguard, but it clears the way for Lithuania to welcome its most powerful
00:39:43ally to build bases and station nukes on its territory.
00:39:47And speaking of bases, that brings us to another point.
00:39:50If Lithuania wants to have American nukes on its territory, it needs places where those nukes can be stored, maintained
00:39:57and, if needed, launched from.
00:40:00Lithuania knows this better than anybody.
00:40:03It has sent a second message to the US, suggesting that it will happily clear the way to make America's
00:40:08stationing of nuclear weapons in Lithuania as easy as possible.
00:40:12Also on October 6th, as news of the parliamentary votes started to filter through, Lithuania made an interesting pledge.
00:40:19According to the country's Prime Minister, Mindauga Sinkovicius, Lithuania will not only allow the US to create a base on
00:40:27its soil if Article 137 is removed, but it will pay for the cost of the base out of its
00:40:32own pocket.
00:40:33That's according to Reuters, which points to the reason why Lithuania just made itself a very attractive prospect to the
00:40:39US.
00:40:39The Baltic state borders two aggressors against NATO, Russia's ally Belarus and the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad.
00:40:47Keep that exclave in mind because it's key to everything that is happening.
00:40:50Of course, none of this means anything if the US isn't open to the idea of having a base in
00:40:56Lithuania.
00:40:57The good news for Lithuania is that America is very interested in that idea.
00:41:02And no less than US President Donald Trump has said as much.
00:41:06In the wake of the massive moves that Lithuania is making, Trump has said that he will definitely look into
00:41:12the possibility of opening a permanent US base on Lithuanian soil.
00:41:16That would be a huge commitment.
00:41:18A permanent base requires a permanent US troop deployment, which Lithuania has never allowed or had in its history.
00:41:25They are friends of mine, they are great people, so we will certainly look at it, Trump declared after being
00:41:30informed of Lithuania's recent moves.
00:41:33Sinkovicius responded almost immediately stating, I am very happy that such an idea is not rejected by President Trump.
00:41:39Before adding that Lithuania is ready to provide the best possible conditions for US soldiers.
00:41:45The wheels of all this were only put in motion on October 6th.
00:41:49But it looks like Lithuania is already operating under the assumption that the second parliamentary vote delivers a good result.
00:41:55After that, it will be full steam ahead. Or will it?
00:41:58Those who pay attention to Trump know that what he says and what he ends up doing aren't always the
00:42:04same thing.
00:42:05Plus, Trump has repeatedly expressed frustration with various NATO members for what he sees as their failure to meet their
00:42:12defence spending commitments.
00:42:13After all, it was only in March 2025 that Trump made a terrifying claim that the US wouldn't come to
00:42:19the aid of a NATO member if that member hadn't met what Trump sees as its obligation to spend more
00:42:25on defence.
00:42:26All of this will concern Lithuania.
00:42:28However, what we see in Trump's recent comments is that he is impressed with Lithuania, likely because it's taken Trump's
00:42:35claims about NATO spending seriously.
00:42:38Lithuania is a small country and it's never going to be able to pour the hundreds of billions of dollars
00:42:43into its military that the US spends every single year.
00:42:46In fact, the country's 2026 defence budget is just over $5.3 billion.
00:42:52But that $5.3 billion also represents 5.38% of Lithuania's gross domestic product, or GDP.
00:43:00That percentage is everything.
00:43:02Trump's frustration stemmed from the fact that many nations weren't meeting the past commitment of 2% of GDP on
00:43:08defence.
00:43:09Lithuania isn't just meeting that current commitment, but it's blown so far past it that the nation is already above
00:43:15the 5% of GDP commitment that NATO says all of its members should meet by 2035.
00:43:21In Trump's eyes, Lithuania has proven itself as a NATO member.
00:43:25That, perhaps more than anything else, will make Trump and the US willing to open the permanent base that Lithuania
00:43:31wants.
00:43:31And with that permanent base could come the nuclear weapons that Lithuania is now opening the door to having them
00:43:37placed on its territory.
00:43:39It also helps that the US and Lithuania have a long-standing relationship that predates all of this.
00:43:45As Newsweek reports, the US regularly sent around 1,000 soldiers to Lithuania on rotation ahead of a pause on
00:43:52a fresh deployment as the Pentagon reviews its European posture.
00:43:55That pause appears to have been lifted for Lithuania, as the country's government claimed in late September that American soldiers
00:44:02are coming back.
00:44:04Newsweek adds, both an engineer battalion and a second battalion armed with Abrams tanks will be coming soon, Lithuania claims.
00:44:11Two battalions means anywhere from 1,000 to 2,000 US soldiers are soon to arrive in Lithuanian territory.
00:44:17Right now, those soldiers won't be permanently stationed, but if Lithuania's new bill makes it through the second round of
00:44:24voting,
00:44:24and the US decides to take advantage of the deletion of Article 137 from the country's constitution, then who knows?
00:44:31The troops may become permanent, and nuclear weapons could soon find their way into Lithuania.
00:44:37You can probably already imagine how the Kremlin has reacted to all of this news.
00:44:41In a nutshell, it isn't good.
00:44:43But before we explain more, this is a reminder that you're watching the military show.
00:44:48If you haven't subscribed to the channel, then now is the perfect time to do so.
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00:45:02Putin's favourite mouthpiece, Dmitry Peskov, has already delivered the Kremlin's response to Lithuania's latest moves.
00:45:09It's fair to say that Putin isn't happy, but as usual for Russia, what Lithuania wants is being dressed up
00:45:15as an unfair escalation rather than the response to Russian aggression that it is clearly intended to be.
00:45:21Neither of these developments will contribute to stability and predictability on the European continent.
00:45:26On the contrary, they will, to our regret, mark yet another significant escalation of tensions, Peskov-wide.
00:45:33He added that Lithuania's vote and the potential for a NATO build-up on the alliance's eastern flank cannot be
00:45:40perceived as anything other than a step toward escalating tensions, just as the deployment of nuclear weapons in a neighbouring
00:45:46country cannot.
00:45:47That's pretty rich from a nation that throws around nuclear threats like they're going out of style.
00:45:53Maybe if you didn't say, but Russia has nukes every time something doesn't go your way, you wouldn't be dealing
00:45:58with this sort of problem, eh Putin?
00:46:01Still, some questions need to be answered, chief among them being why Lithuania has chosen now to start clearing the
00:46:08way for the return of US troops and the stationing of nukes on its territory.
00:46:12But before we answer that question, there's another.
00:46:15Let's say the US takes Lithuania's offer and sends in the nuclear weapons.
00:46:19What would that mean in practice?
00:46:21What Lithuania is proposing is far from unprecedented.
00:46:25NATO has a nuclear-sharing policy which has led to several NATO states hosting American nukes.
00:46:31Among those states are Germany, Italy, Belgium, Turkey and the Netherlands.
00:46:36In the past, the US has also hosted nuclear weapons in Greece and before it got its own nukes, the
00:46:41UK.
00:46:41So that's one potential barrier out of the way.
00:46:45There is already a process in place for the US to do what Lithuania is signalling that it wants.
00:46:50Currently, it's unknown exactly how many nukes the US has stationed in Europe, the Council on Foreign Relations reports.
00:46:57However, it is believed there were somewhere in the region of 100 stored in five NATO member states across six
00:47:04bases back in 2021.
00:47:05The key to all of this is that the US doesn't just hand over nukes to other countries and then
00:47:10leave those nations in control of the weapons.
00:47:13America makes all of the decisions.
00:47:16That's why Lithuania is talking about setting up a permanent American base on its territory.
00:47:21Permanence is the only thing that would convince the US that it's worth sending nuclear weapons to the Baltic state.
00:47:28Anything less would mean that the US stations a nuke that it may have to pull out of Lithuania if
00:47:33it decides to take back control over whatever base it assigns for the weapon.
00:47:38Simply put, nukes in Lithuania wouldn't be used against Russia or anybody else unless the US chooses to use them.
00:47:45Lithuania would have no direct power over the weapons.
00:47:48If that's the case, then we would come back to the question we posed earlier about why Lithuania would want
00:47:54this in the first place.
00:47:56There are two answers.
00:47:57Lithuania feels that it needs a deterrent against Russia and it also believes that nuclear weapons would help it to
00:48:04play a role in solving the Kaliningrad issue.
00:48:07When it comes to a deterrent, arguments have been made for years that stationing nuclear weapons in the Baltic states
00:48:13would steer Putin away from his more insane ideas.
00:48:17Rand made that argument in an October 2019 article noting at the time that NATO's deterrent was militarily weak, leaving
00:48:25an opening for a Russian invasion should Putin go in that direction.
00:48:29An asymmetry had developed in the European nuclear landscape and placing nukes in the Baltic region would help redress the
00:48:35balance.
00:48:36Nukes in Lithuania would also help the US to booster the credibility of its security guarantees, Rand argues.
00:48:42That was a talking point in 2019, and it's even more so in 2026, given what we mentioned about Trump's
00:48:48NATO comments earlier.
00:48:50Fast forward to seven years after Rand published its paper, and we're starting to see the consequences of NATO's lacklustre
00:48:57Baltic security posture.
00:48:58For Lithuania, a much stronger deterrent is needed now because Russia keeps on pushing its luck.
00:49:05Putin is actively testing NATO boundaries with hybrid warfare, even as he wages conventional war in Ukraine, and a message
00:49:13needs to be sent to the Kremlin that the Baltic nations are ready.
00:49:16Aerial incursions will particularly concern Lithuania.
00:49:20Over the past year or so, Lithuania has watched as Russian drones and sometimes fighter jets enter the airspace of
00:49:27its Baltic neighbours, as well as nations like Poland and Romania.
00:49:31Lithuania has also had to deal with Russian aggression in the very recent past.
00:49:34Back in September, a drone crossed into Lithuania from Belarus.
00:49:38The NATO response was swift, as fighter jets were deployed to destroy the drone in what marked the first time
00:49:44that had ever happened over Lithuania.
00:49:46A year prior, a Russian fighter jet along with a refueling tanker breached Lithuanian airspace, crossing over from Kaliningrad.
00:49:54Russia, of course, denied that this ever happened, but that's standard operating procedure for Russia.
00:49:59It's fair to say these incidents have rattled Lithuania.
00:50:01It also served as a reminder that it's not just Russia that Lithuania has to worry about.
00:50:07Belarus is also a problem, especially as that nation borders Lithuania.
00:50:12According to Newsweek, Lithuania has repeatedly accused Belarus of organising or enabling hybrid attacks on its territory,
00:50:20including sending military balloons over the border in December.
00:50:24Those balloons disrupted air traffic, making it clear that Belarus is serving as a proxy for Russian aggression.
00:50:30It also hasn't escaped Lithuania's attention that Russia made a big song and dance over holding nuclear force exercises inside
00:50:38Belarus back in May,
00:50:40soon after declaring that it would station nukes in the country.
00:50:43For Lithuania, this is a direct threat located just over its border.
00:50:47The nukes it wants from the US would be as much a deterrent against Belarus as they would be against
00:50:52Russia.
00:50:52And don't forget the near constant threats that Russia volleys at the Baltic states.
00:50:57At various points over the last year or so, Russia has issued veiled threats to all three Baltic nations over
00:51:03their support for Ukraine.
00:51:05In April, Russia's foreign ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova declared,
00:51:10If the regimes of these countries have enough sense, they will listen. If not, they will have to deal with
00:51:16a response.
00:51:17That threat was made after Russia accused the Baltic nations of allowing Ukraine to use their airspace for drone strikes.
00:51:24Lithuania sees Russian aggression in all of these moves, and it isn't wrong.
00:51:28The moves being made now would enable Lithuania to benefit from, at the very least, a permanent presence of US
00:51:34troops.
00:51:35If nuclear weapons are also stationed on its territory, it would amount to a calling out of Russia after all
00:51:41of these threats.
00:51:41And speaking of threats, that brings us back to the Kuliningrad issue.
00:51:45At the beginning of October, the BBC reported that Putin had declared that Russia would use every weapon at its
00:51:51disposal,
00:51:52up to and including nukes, if Kuliningrad came under NATO attack.
00:51:56He said this while also insisting that Russia is not threatening anybody.
00:52:01Russia's doublespeak is in full effect here.
00:52:04Lithuania takes this threat, because that's what it is, very seriously, because it shares a border with Kuliningrad.
00:52:11That means any military action Russia takes involving the exclave would almost inevitably impact Lithuania.
00:52:18If that action involves nuclear weapons, then Lithuania needs to be ready.
00:52:22The Baltic state is already taking some action to secure itself against the threat posed by Kuliningrad.
00:52:28On October 7th, TVP World reported that Lithuania is gearing up to deploy its military to guard the border it
00:52:35shares with Russia's exclave.
00:52:36That move comes in response to an incident that happened in Latvia earlier in the week.
00:52:41Authorities caught a group of 20 illegal migrants attempting to cross into Latvia from Belarus.
00:52:47Those migrants were allegedly instructed to push toward Latvia by armed escorts that were trying to force them into the
00:52:53Baltic state's territory.
00:52:55Yet another example of Russia's hybrid warfare strategy.
00:52:59Naturally, Lithuania is worried about something similar happening on its borders, especially given that Kuliningrad and Belarus could both present
00:53:06this type of threat.
00:53:07So, troops are on their way to the Kuliningrad border.
00:53:10It wouldn't surprise us to see a similar measure taken at the border with Belarus.
00:53:15Returning to Putin's Kuliningrad threat, Moscow's rhetoric may be dismissed by some as the sort of sabre rattling that we
00:53:21see all too often from the Kremlin.
00:53:23However, it can't be ignored, especially in the context of Baltic preparedness.
00:53:28Kuliningrad represents a threat to the 65-kilometre-long Sovolki Gap, which connects Lithuania to Poland.
00:53:35If Russia manages to occupy that gap, Lithuania will be cut off from many of its NATO allies, perhaps enabling
00:53:42an invasion from Kuliningrad or Belarus.
00:53:44Being ready to strike before that gap can be taken is key to the Baltic defence line that NATO is
00:53:51attempting to create, says Chatham House.
00:53:53The Baltic states have also prepared themselves to be at the centre of a grey zone conflict with Russia.
00:54:00Border defences are being erected and all three nations have disconnected themselves from the Belarusian and Russian electricity systems on
00:54:08which they previously relied.
00:54:10In short, Lithuania is getting ready for an attack via Kuliningrad that it hopes never comes.
00:54:16One way to make such an attack far less likely is to station American nuclear weapons in Lithuania.
00:54:22That way, Lithuania has a powerful type of weapon that could be used to wipe out Kuliningrad if the need
00:54:28arises.
00:54:29More than anything else, this would serve as a deterrent to Russia, unlike anything else the Baltic states are doing
00:54:36to prepare for a fight.
00:54:37Mess with the bull and you get the nuclear horns, so to speak.
00:54:42Lithuania is still at the very start of its nuclear journey.
00:54:45A vote has passed, but another awaits.
00:54:47Everything that Lithuania wants from the US can only happen if that second vote leads to the removal of Article
00:54:54137 from the Lithuanian constitution.
00:54:57Ever since Ukraine received its first batch of F-16s in August 2024, the Kremlin has watched, and its biggest
00:55:05enemy has quietly built an air force to rival what Russia is bringing into Ukraine.
00:55:10Insane feats have been performed, including several world firsts, and Ukraine has transformed its F-16s into some of the
00:55:18most valuable air defence assets.
00:55:20Now, more are coming.
00:55:23More F-16s, delivered by Belgium, are set to be unleashed into the skies over Ukraine, and they couldn't have
00:55:30come at a better time as Ukraine prepares for a harsh winter.
00:55:33The news broke on September 29th that Belgium is set to deliver three F-16s to Ukraine, following the delivery
00:55:40of munitions for the F-16s that Ukraine already has in its arsenal.
00:55:45Finally, Ukraine must have thought.
00:55:47It signed a deal with Belgium for the transfer of 30 F-16s, contingent on the arrival of F-35s,
00:55:54into Belgium.
00:55:55Delays have hampered the deal.
00:55:57But now, after months of waiting, Ukraine finally has its first Belgian F-16s.
00:56:03We're about to dig deeper, but before we do, this channel is built by real people who care about getting
00:56:08the story right.
00:56:10Subscribe, join the conversation below, and consider becoming a member to support human-made military reporting and unlock exclusive content.
00:56:18Turning to Facebook, Ukraine's President, Volodymyr Zelensky, both hailed and thanked Belgium while offering the basics of the transfer.
00:56:27There is an important agreement with Belgium on the transfer of three F-16 fighter jets by the end of
00:56:32this year.
00:56:33We will work to receive these aircraft through an accelerated procedure, Zelensky declared.
00:56:38These are decisive steps being taken by Belgium and its Prime Minister, Bart Doveva, Zelensky added.
00:56:45And these F-16s arriving as winter looms will also be key to offering Ukraine the ability to shoot down
00:56:51more Russian projectiles that Putin and his soulless cronies are using to target Ukrainian civilians.
00:56:57Zelensky mentioned an accelerated procedure.
00:57:01However, he didn't provide any details about what that procedure entails or what it has changed.
00:57:07It seems likely that Ukraine's President is referring to plans drawn up by Belgium's Defence Ministry toward the end of
00:57:132025.
00:57:14At that point, there was an agreement in place to send F-16s to Ukraine, but no defined timeline.
00:57:20This new plan, which was confirmed in May by Defence Minister Theo Franken, set a new timeline in which seven
00:57:26F-16s would be delivered to Ukraine.
00:57:28Hold on a minute. Seven.
00:57:30Zelensky only mentioned three in his statement.
00:57:33So what happened to the other four?
00:57:34They're still coming, only not in the way you might expect.
00:57:37On top of the three operational F-16s that are going to be taking to Ukraine's skies by the end
00:57:43of 2026, the four others Belgium will send are non-operational.
00:57:48That doesn't mean they're worthless.
00:57:50These four non-operational F-16s will be used for spare parts, allowing Ukraine to keep its existing fleet of
00:57:56fighter jets in good repair.
00:57:58That fleet is growing.
00:58:01According to Global Military, Ukraine now has 343 active aircraft in its fleet, breaking down into 142 combat aircraft, 130
00:58:10helicopters and several support airframes.
00:58:13Not all are F-16s, of course. However, the F-16 is quickly emerging as one of the most popular
00:58:18fighter jets in Ukraine's arsenal.
00:58:21Right now, Ukraine has 31 F-16s in active use, with the three to be added by Belgium, soon to
00:58:27be bringing that tally to 34.
00:58:29Only the Soviet-era MiG-29s in Ukraine's fleet are more numerous at 51 active jets.
00:58:35Ukraine now has more F-16s than it has Su-27 flankers, showcasing an increasing shift toward a more westernized
00:58:42air force.
00:58:43Other jets are on order, including 16 Rafales and 16 Gripen-E, Global Military says.
00:58:49Yet more western jets to be added to a Ukrainian air force that is growing more capable and dangerous by
00:58:54the month.
00:58:55Returning to Ukraine's F-16s, Zelensky has also announced that preparations have already been made to ensure that supplies for
00:59:03this trio of jets,
00:59:04along with Ukraine's other F-16s, will get to where they need to go.
00:59:08That's according to a September 29 report by the Kyiv Post, which says that Zelensky and his team have mapped
00:59:14out a plan to ensure that key F-16 supplies will reach Ukraine by the end of 2026.
00:59:20Belgium has just done something massive for Ukraine.
00:59:23Finally, after months of delays, F-16s that have been promised for years are starting to make their way into
00:59:29the country.
00:59:29More will be coming and we'll be getting to that later, but more important than what is to come is
00:59:34what has been committed.
00:59:35The three Belgian F-16s are arriving at the perfect time. There are two reasons why.
00:59:41First of those reasons has more to do with what Ukraine is doing than it does with what Russia has
00:59:46planned.
00:59:47Ukraine is now better positioned than ever to accept new F-16s because it has vastly expanded its capacity to
00:59:55train new pilots.
00:59:56What this means is that Ukraine won't have to wait around to get its new F-16s into the sky.
01:00:01Once they arrive, there should be pilots ready to fly them, waiting in the wings.
01:00:05Ukraine appears to have recognised that upskilling its existing pilots, so they're capable of dealing with the F-16s, should
01:00:12be a priority in recent months.
01:00:14That's according to the Kiev Post, which says that Ukraine is now actively working with pilots of its MiG-29s
01:00:20and Su-27s to get them ready to fly Western fighter jets.
01:00:25That training is essential. The skills needed to fly a Soviet-era fighter jet don't directly translate to those needed
01:00:32for an F-16.
01:00:33In fact, most of the training Ukrainian pilots had been doing before now took place abroad, as these pilots had
01:00:40to get to grips with all sorts of technology they hadn't seen before.
01:00:43For instance, the F-16's cockpit warning system only operates in English, not ideal for a Ukrainian speaker who doesn't
01:00:50know the language.
01:00:51We have seen examples of budding F-16 pilots being trained in the UK, where they learn the ins and
01:00:57outs of their jets, along with new techniques such as low-altitude flying.
01:01:01According to analyst Wes O'Donnell, the Royal Air Force trainers who have worked with Ukraine have also been involved in
01:01:07helping pilots complete a mindset shift from their Soviet-era tactics to Westernise methods.
01:01:13In short, piloting an F-16 requires a major adaptation for a Ukrainian pilot. Language barriers must be overcome, specialised
01:01:23and military aviation terminology must be learned, and even new controls such as the F-16's side-stick controller, which
01:01:30differs from a Soviet-era jet's centre-stick, have to be learned.
01:01:34Now, Ukraine can't handle all of this training domestically, but it has made moves in recent months to bring as
01:01:40much of the training in-house as possible.
01:01:43We saw that in July, when Ukraine's Defence Ministry revealed that it had received a batch of mobile F-16
01:01:50simulators that it can use to train more pilots.
01:01:52That's massive for Ukraine. It means that pilots can now get more simulated flight hours in their own country, which
01:01:59speeds up their transition from being an F-16 pilot in training to an aviator who can use Ukraine's Western
01:02:05jets to damage Russia.
01:02:07Our pilots now have even greater opportunities to train, practice complex combat scenarios, and refine their skills without using aircraft.
01:02:16We are continuing to strengthen the capabilities of the Air Force while developing a modern pilot training system in line
01:02:22with NATO standards, Ukraine's Defence Ministry said in July.
01:02:27Ukraine's former Defence Minister, Mikhailo Fedorov, also hailed the arrival of these simulators.
01:02:32Sharing a video of these simulators in action on Facebook, he declared,
01:02:36We are strengthening the training of Ukrainian F-16 pilots to protect the sky.
01:02:41More training at a higher intensity than ever before is now available to Ukraine's budding F-16 pilots.
01:02:48This matters because it means the three Belgian F-16s that are on their way won't languish in hangars for
01:02:53months waiting for pilots.
01:02:55They'll arrive, they'll be up, and they'll be dealing with a major issue that is also the second reason why
01:03:00Belgium's delivery is especially well timed.
01:03:04Stick with us because we're about to reveal what that issue is.
01:03:08But before we do, this is a reminder that you're watching the military show.
01:03:11If this is the kind of insight that you want to see, make sure you are subscribed to the channel
01:03:16and have notifications enabled.
01:03:19We break it down like this every single week.
01:03:22The second reason why the Belgian F-16 delivery is so well timed breaks down to a quote we can
01:03:28lift from Game of Thrones.
01:03:30Winter is coming.
01:03:32And the winter of 2026 into 2027 promises to be among the most harrowing yet seen,
01:03:38as Russia is clearly ramping up its missile and drone assaults in preparation for an attempted blitz on Ukraine's energy
01:03:45infrastructure during the coldest months of the year.
01:03:48We're already seeing the signs of what is to come.
01:03:50For instance, September 24 brought with it news that Russia had unleashed a devastating missile and drone strike targeting the
01:03:58Ukrainian capital of Kyiv and the region of Kharkiv.
01:04:01Eight people have been killed by this strike, and it's really just a portent of what is to come during
01:04:06the winter.
01:04:07As Ukraine struggles with a shortage of air defenses, which means it's having to prioritize which, if any, of Russia's
01:04:13ballistic missiles to shoot down, Russia's aerial assaults are intensifying.
01:04:17Zelensky spoke about the strike on X, stating,
01:04:21Once again, the main targets of their strike were Kyiv and civilian infrastructure, residential buildings, a maternity hospital, energy infrastructure
01:04:29and logistics.
01:04:30All are terrible, but it's the strikes against energy infrastructure that really matter in the context of what's to come
01:04:36this winter.
01:04:37As the Atlantic Council points out, Russia has a habit of escalating its strikes against Ukraine's energy infrastructure during the
01:04:44winter.
01:04:45It's the weaponization of low temperatures, as Russia twists General Winter, which has so long been an ally of Russia,
01:04:52into a horrible entity responsible for the deaths of Ukrainian civilians.
01:04:56In 2025, Russian attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructure amounted to 1,225 strikes, causing $20 billion worth of damage.
01:05:06That year of energy grid strikes also saw Russia launch more attacks in 12 months than it had between the
01:05:12start of Putin's invasion and December 2024.
01:05:15A strategy has clearly been determined.
01:05:18And as we move into the winter of 2026, Putin appears to have identified these types of strikes as being
01:05:24key to the capitulation of Ukraine.
01:05:27That's according to an assessment by the Institute for the Study of War, or ISW, which says that combined strikes
01:05:33with jet-powered drones and ballistic missiles are going to be a feature of Russia's winter strategy.
01:05:39The ISW adds that Putin appears to be shooting for a victory by the spring of 2027, and these energy
01:05:45strikes are a key part of Russia's approach.
01:05:48The idea is simple – freeze and starve Ukraine's people out, and the country will be forced to capitulate, even
01:05:55though its military is doing well against Russia.
01:05:57It's here where Ukraine's new F-16s could come into play.
01:06:01Now, we're not going to claim that a trio of Belgian F-16s will be enough to overcome Russia's aerial
01:06:07assault.
01:06:08They won't be, and Ukraine will definitely need to solve its ballistic missile issue, as well as its drone interception
01:06:14rate,
01:06:15which Zelensky says has dropped to 70% now that Russia has introduced jet-powered drones.
01:06:20However, we also can't ignore the fact that Ukraine's F-16s are air defense behemoths that play a huge role
01:06:27in stopping Russian drones and missiles in their tracks.
01:06:30On September 29th, the defense blog revealed an insane statistic.
01:06:34It reports that Lieutenant General Anatoly Krivinojko, who is the commander of the Ukrainian Air Force,
01:06:40has revealed that Ukraine's F-16 pilots have shot down a total of 3,150 aerial targets since F-16s
01:06:47entered the war in Ukraine.
01:06:49That figure breaks down to 666 Russian cruise missiles taken out in a devilish display of destruction.
01:06:55The other 2,500 or so aerial targets were drones of various types.
01:06:59And to add to this air defense utility, Ukraine's F-16s have also conducted more than 650 strikes against Russian
01:07:07ground targets.
01:07:08All of this was revealed by Krivinojko during a meeting with Lockheed Martin, and there is more that has emerged
01:07:14from that meeting, which we'll reveal soon.
01:07:16Ukraine didn't reveal the time period in which this drone and missile destruction took place.
01:07:21But if we assume that Ukraine has been using its F-16s for air defense ever since they arrived in
01:07:27August 2024,
01:07:28that gives us approximately 25 months in which they've been effective against Russia's aerial threats.
01:07:34Divide 3,150 by 25, and you get a monthly average of 126 Russian projectiles shot down by F-16s.
01:07:42As we said, F-16s aren't going to end Ukraine's air defense woes.
01:07:46But three more added to the existing fleet are going to help Ukraine take down more of Russia's cruise missiles.
01:07:53This trio of jets will also contribute to the destruction of more of the jet-powered drones that Russia has
01:07:58introduced in September 2026.
01:08:01September has seen Russia sharply increase the use of these types of strike drones,
01:08:05which are capable of much faster speeds than the Shahid-type drones Russia was using before.
01:08:10The Garan 5 model, for instance, is believed to have a top speed of 600 km per hour,
01:08:16which makes it much harder for Ukraine's drone interceptors to blow them out of the sky.
01:08:21Ukraine is working on a new generation of faster drone interceptors to deal with the jet-powered drone problem,
01:08:27but right now these new Russian drones are avoiding interception at an alarming rate,
01:08:33making Russia's aerial strikes more devastating.
01:08:36F-16s can help to solve this problem.
01:08:39On September 14th, Militanyi reported that Ukraine has started to deploy F-16s to shoot down jet-powered drones.
01:08:46The move makes sense.
01:08:48These faster drones are somewhat similar to the cruise missiles Ukraine's Western jets already destroy.
01:08:54So the AIM-9 and AIM-120 missiles used for that purpose are also ideal for taking down Russia's jet
01:09:01-powered drones.
01:09:02For Ukraine, the ideal scenario is that this approach will be a stopgap as it awaits mass production of its
01:09:08new generation of drone interceptors.
01:09:11Zelensky reveals the thought process, stating,
01:09:13We use these missiles on the F-16s to shoot down jet drones.
01:09:17It's expensive, but sometimes when there's no other way to shoot down a particular jet drone, human life is more
01:09:23important and more valuable.
01:09:25That's why we've sometimes deployed F-16s against such drones.
01:09:28What this all means is that we're likely to see Belgian F-16s involved in some insane acts of air
01:09:34defense during the winter months and beyond.
01:09:37Perhaps some of them will even be used to match some of the other crazy feats that Ukraine has pulled
01:09:41off with its Western airframes.
01:09:42For instance, September 21st saw the release of an interesting photograph shot from the cockpit of one of Ukraine's F
01:09:49-16s.
01:09:50The photo shows the destruction of one of Russia's jet-powered drones, revealing just how talented Ukraine's pilots have become
01:09:57when flying their F-16s.
01:09:59The use of the F-16s gun for this takedown proves what Zelensky is saying about how F-16s can
01:10:05counter Russia's latest drone threat.
01:10:07But it's also important for another reason. Using the F-16s gun to take out a jet-powered drone preserves
01:10:13valuable ammunition for other purposes.
01:10:15We may be seeing the start of a new approach from this photo. The gun for drones and the missiles
01:10:21to take out Russian cruise missiles.
01:10:24If more pilots can perfect this technique, the three Belgian F-16s, along with those Ukraine already has, become a
01:10:31much more powerful form of air defense.
01:10:33Other insane feats will give Russia even more reason to fear the arrival of the new F-16s.
01:10:39Ukraine's pilots have pulled off several world firsts with their Western fighter jets, including the pilot who managed to destroy
01:10:45six Russian missiles in a single sortie,
01:10:48and the flyer who somehow managed to shoot down a more advanced Russian Su-35 in direct air-to-air
01:10:54combat back in July.
01:10:56More of the same, please, Ukraine will be thinking. Please, no more will be coming from the Russian side.
01:11:01Still, while the arrival of three Belgian F-16s into Ukraine is a massive deal, the future may hold even
01:11:08bigger things for Ukraine on the air force front.
01:11:11We mentioned the meeting that Krivonozhko held with Lockheed Martin earlier.
01:11:15That meeting wasn't just about sharing remarkable stats. Krivonozhko was there with a purpose, discussing the prospect of Ukraine receiving
01:11:24F-16 Block 7072 fighter jets.
01:11:27This block is the most modern version of the F-16, and it comes loaded with tools that will make
01:11:33Ukraine's jets even stronger air defense assets.
01:11:36Those tools include a more modern cockpit and an active electronically scanned array or Acer radar.
01:11:42These radars offer improved target tracking and terrain mapping over those in the older F-16s Ukraine has.
01:11:48Now, Lockheed Martin hasn't said that it will facilitate the arrival of newer F-16 blocks in Ukraine.
01:11:54There are no contracts or timelines that have emerged from the meeting.
01:11:57However, the company did say that it is committed to doing whatever it can to improve the capabilities of Ukraine's
01:12:04F-16s.
01:12:05What that actually means may only be revealed in the coming months.
01:12:09For now, let's come back to Belgium.
01:12:12As important as the three F-16s arriving by the end of the year, along with the four to be
01:12:16used for spares may be, there is a lot more to come from Belgium.
01:12:20The country has committed its entire fleet of F-16s to Ukraine, which amounts to 53 airframes.
01:12:27So far, Ukraine has received seven, meaning there are another 46 Belgian F-16s waiting for delivery.
01:12:34A timeline is in place, reports the Brussels Times.
01:12:37In 2027, Ukraine should receive another five F-16s.
01:12:41Those will be followed by 14 more in 2028 and the remaining 27, which will arrive in 2029.
01:12:48The caveat here is that this timeframe depends on the Belgian Air Force's operational needs.
01:12:53In other words, if the F-35s Belgium is expecting to receive from the US don't arrive on time, we
01:12:59may see some delays.
01:13:00Still, this is a lot of aerial firepower heading into Ukraine over the next few years.
01:13:05So what we've just seen Belgium deliver isn't a culmination.
01:13:08It's the starting point of something much bigger, which will arrive in the coming years, that is designed to make
01:13:14Ukraine's Air Force stronger than it has ever been before.
01:13:17It starts with seven.
01:13:19It ends with 53 F-16s having been transferred from Belgium to Ukraine.
01:13:25And with each transfer, Ukraine's air defenses are strengthened, as is its ability to do damage to Russian ground targets.
01:13:32Still, as Ukraine waits, Russia will be looking to carry out as many long-range strikes as it can.
01:13:38But Ukraine is no slouch in the deep strike department.
01:13:41Threats are already being made by Ukraine that it will meet Russia's energy strikes with attacks of its own.
01:13:47And earlier in September, Ukraine proved that threat is valid by launching its largest strike yet against Moscow.
01:13:54You can find out more about that strike and what it means both now and for the future by watching
01:14:00our video.
01:14:00But before you go, if real, human-made military reporting matters to you, subscribe and tell us what you think
01:14:07below.
01:14:08You can also become a member for exclusive content while directly supporting the work behind the channel.
01:14:14And thank you, as always, for watching.

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