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JNU के पूर्व प्रोफेसर Arun Kumar ने CPI Inflation और भारत की Economy को लेकर बड़ा बयान दिया है। सितंबर में Retail Inflation बढ़ने के बाद आम आदमी के घरेलू बजट पर कितना असर पड़ेगा? क्या महंगाई के बढ़ते आंकड़े Indian Economy की कमजोरी दिखा रहे हैं? Modi Government की Economic Policies कितनी असरदार हैं और Donald Trump की नीतियों का भारत पर क्या प्रभाव पड़ सकता है? जानिए Inflation Rate, महंगाई के कारण, सरकार की नीतियों और आम आदमी की जेब पर पड़ने वाले असर का पूरा विश्लेषण Arun Kumar के साथ।

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Transcript
00:00Namaskar, you are looking good returns and I am A
00:02आपके साथ सुमेद कुमार महंगाई ने एक बार फिर से आम आदमी की चिंता बढ़ा दी है सितंबर में खुद्रा
00:08महंगाई दर बढ़कर 5.54% पर पहुच गई है जो कि पिछले 23 महीनों का सबसे उचा इस तर
00:14है अगस्त में या 4.83% थी यानि कि एक महीने में खुद्रा महं
00:22जो की कीमतों को लेकर का है क्योंकि खादे महंगाई दर अगस्त में 5.97% थी जो सितंबर में
00:29बढ़कर के 7.74% हो गई है ग्रामिन इलाकों में खुद्रा महंगाई 5.2% से बढ़कर 6.08
00:35% और शेहरी इलाकों में 4.31% से बढ़कर 4.88% हो गई है यानि कि गाउं से
00:41लेकर शेहर
00:42तक हर जगा महंगाई बढ़ती ही जा रही है अब सवाल या है कि महंगाई बढ़ने की सबसे वड़ी वज़ा
00:47क्या है क्या सबजीयों और खाने पीने की चीजों की बढ़ती कीमतें आम आदमी की बज़ट भीगारेंगी कच्चे तेल की
00:53कीमतें और रुपए की कमजोरी का मह
01:06।
01:38।
01:42Yeah.
01:47Yeah.
01:49Yeah.
01:53Yeah.
02:02Yeah.
02:15Yeah.
02:20Yeah.
02:49Yeah, yeah, yeah.
03:02foreign
03:30foreign
03:50तो उसके ओपर थोड़ा ज़्यादे असर पड़ेगा यह की जो आमीर है जो बिजनेस वाला है उसको तो फायदा ही
04:08हो जाता है क्योंकि उसके तो आमदनी बढ़ जाती है तो इसलिए देखना पड़ेगा कि किसके ओपर कितना असर है
04:13इसका और
04:14Okay, live, to eat and eat, the price is improved.
04:17The prices are less than the damage.
04:18It's higher, the effects are more than the prices.
04:21This is the main cost.
04:22The middle class or upper middle class,
04:25which will be very long saving is higher than that.
04:29However, if the quality is not saving,
04:31then you must have more than the Share Your Traction.
04:32But, if you have given it by the price of eating,
04:36and other housing,
04:37then you will be more than the price of eating.
04:40Then, you can say,
04:41it will be lower.
04:41Now, my opinion is more than the price demand for the price.
04:43which is already the
04:49energy so when the energy comes from the
04:55petroleum product and gas
04:57its own
04:57the amount of energy is
04:59used in every
05:01factory and diesel
05:03also also
05:05transport
05:06also
05:08So that's why this year, this is the current year.
05:09So if you are a new one, the American undue work,
05:11then you can pick up the trade side,
05:14and you can follow the trade side.
05:15So you can sue the trade side.
05:18So this is what you can do,
05:19So I won't forget it.
05:20So you still need the price.
05:21So you're going to get rid of the trade side,
05:22and I don't need to get rid of the trade side.
05:22You have to rise in the navy and then go ahead.
05:29So you have to buy it.
05:35So that's how you take a chance.
05:36US
05:37k
05:40c
05:41c
05:43Yeah.
05:44Yeah.
05:47Yes, but the interest rate is lower than the demand. But the demand is not the demand, the supply is
05:54the supply.
05:54The supply is lower than the energy, the supply problem is the demand.
06:00mandate. But because RBI to say mandate that aa demo다�が
06:042% will remain 4% plus-2%, they always go for interest rate. But because they have a
06:13very firetreeq, they should be bad for us. They when the buy wasカPeter получ
06:29I am going to say that we are going to talk about the demand and the demand will be more
06:34than the impact of the inflation.
06:37And the demand will be more than the impact of the inflation.
06:42So, the role of the RBI is not just as the government has to be indirect taxes.
06:48So, the GST will be, VAT will be, XI duty will be, it will be that the inflation will
07:24Okay.
07:26Now the inflation is increasing and increasing and increasing.
07:32Is crude and the government's policy has been impacted by the rate of the impact of the quality of the
07:40quality of the quality?
07:40The government's need of the GST was in the last year.
07:50now we can cut GST because now we have petroleum products.
07:56We have to cut the EV and we have to cut the EV and we have to cut the EV
08:15and the EV
08:30foreign
08:58foreign
08:59foreign
08:59foreign
08:59foreign
09:26foreign
09:27foreign
09:30foreign
09:30sir bada diya to trade ka to jay ya ki uske apni margin bada di usne na jay sir aagla
09:36sawal me rae hai ki rbi ki orse joh mehengai ka joh lakše ho 4% kia aspa sa lhe
09:41ki nabhi
09:414% se kaafi upar mehengai CPI hai to kia sir aane waale sameh me rbi or rate hike
09:47kar sakta hai or aegar rbi rate hike karega ta iska bhi kahi na kahi impact time logo
09:51pere hi purta wana cha raayega. Bilkul wo to chunki jaysse mainne kaha ki rbi ka
09:55to role yehi hai ki wo interest rate bada dhe jisse ki inflation rate ah thoda kam ho
10:00demand thudhi kam ho. Par samasya demand ki nahi hai. Samasya to supply ki hai. To
10:06aap demand jab kam karengai. To usse phir jay yeh huwa ki jay phir utpadan mein
10:10ee kam hi aayegi jay joh business hain. Unko jay athar padega. Or arthiasta mein
10:14bheirozgaari peh athar padega. To isne mehara maanna ki joh advance countryz
10:18meh wahan pe jay food wagaira ka itna woh nahi hai. Toh humaree desh mein toh food
10:22bahti important hai ki yunki hain gariib ho ke opere asar pardta hai. Toh isne yeh
10:27joh wahan pe kiya jata hai ki aapne inflation targeting ka eek role rakhha hai central bank
10:32ka. Woh humne bhi copy ka liya. Jibki yoh humaree athna valid nahi hai jitna ki
10:36advance countryz me valid hai. Okay sir eek or sawal hai mera. Aagar mehengai sir
10:40aysa hi badhti rahati hai. Or oopar jati hai mehengai dar. Or arthiq vikas ki
10:44naftar agar dhimi pardhati hai. Toh kya bharat stack flessan jaysse
10:47sthiti ki or badeh sakti hai. Or iske shurwaati sanket kya honge sir. Or isse
10:51nipatne ke liye ek or chee sir. Hala ki IMF nene toh growth rate ka anuman
10:55badaha diya hai. Lekin agar aysi sthiti aati hai toh isse nipatne ke liye
10:59kya karna chahiye sarkar ko? Lekhiye aysa hai ki humaree toh GDP ka data hi
11:02sa hi nahi hai. Joh sarkar karihye sath dhashan da art pressure ka growth hai.
11:07Woh meri khaihal meh 0 ya 1 ya 2 percent ka hi hai. Toh stack flessan jaysse
11:11situation toh already eek tarah se hai. Ki humaree growth kam ho raha
11:14hai. Or humaree jay inflation tez hai. Toh stack flessan jay situation
11:19se deal karne ke liye aapko jaysse ma nai khaa ki supply bottlenecks joh
11:22hai na. Usko deal karna padega. Fiscal policy se deal karna padega.
11:26Jisse ki inflation rate kam ho. Or joh garib aadmi hai. Jiski demand
11:30kam ho raha hai hai. Hana. Woh thoda or consume kar payega. Toh
11:33usse jay bhahtat ho ghi. Ab isme hai kiasse pata lagta hai ki jay
11:37stack flessan jay situation hai. Toh joh RBI ka joh data aata hai. Joh
11:41hama ra joh jisko capacity utilization ka data bholta hai. Jay. Capacity
11:45utilization ka matlab hai ki agar mai sot air conditioner bana
11:47sakta ho. Maree sattar bik raha hai hai. Toh baya phir capacity ko
11:50eek sot das mei kyun karunga. Toh mearee caili ghe. Toh isne
11:54jay capacity utilization ka data dikhha raha hai ki pishle das saal se
11:57woh sattar pichhattar ke biech mei ghoom raha hai. Jabki pandemic
12:00ke doran toh woh chalis pahunc gaya tha. Toh sattar pichhattar ka matlab hai ki
12:04aap ke paas capacity abhi baanqi hai. Toh aap kiyong aur invest
12:08karenge. Toh jab capacity utilization pichhattari nabye
12:10pahuncayga. Tab aap eek sot das ka karengi. Tab aapka growth
12:13bhar jayega. Toh jay se sarkar ka jay baar baar kahti
12:16hai ki jab private sector invest bhaan nahi raha hai. Jana woh
12:19karei ki hap public sector mene investment bhaan hai,
12:21par private sector naih bhaan raha hai. Toh sattar kata jay
12:24demand kam hai, isne naihi ham nahi kar saktay. Toh demand
12:27generate karna ek taraf hai. Jana aur doussra supply bottleneck
12:31karna woh doussi taraf hai. Yeh dho qadam uthaayenge toh
12:34stackfish situation se aap deal kar saktay hai. Okay, sir
12:38antim question me ra hai ki aapne to sir bakho bhi
12:40bataaya ki main samadha demand ki naihi. Agar RBI rate hike
12:43karta ya toh usse demand gharta hai. Lekin main samadha supply
12:45ko lhe karke hai. Kyunki ah logon ke paas samad
12:48pahuncni chahiye, bus to wo pahuncni chahiye, uske
12:49baad hi kahi nahi kahi inflation control ho saktay hai. Sir antim
12:52question ya hai ki sir bharat ke sámane abhi sabse
12:54badhi chinouti ki aana chara rahi hai sir? Sabse badhi
12:56chinouti berozgaari ki hai, gareebi ki hai. Phr joh aapka
13:00joh growth rate hai, joh main keha raha ho ghi
13:02yoh saad national art prashat naihi hai, woh eek-doh
13:05prashat hi hai. Jainat, woh toh badhi jayega agar
13:07aap berozgaari aur gareebi ko jah deal karenge. Or joh
13:10inflation hota hai, usse business ko fayda hota hai. Worker
13:13joh farmer hai, usko nukcsaan hota hai. To inflation
13:16ko control karne ke liye, joh kadem uđthane chahiye
13:18aapka indirect tax kamb karie. Or indirect tax kamb
13:21karne se joh deficit badhega, toh woh aapko direct tax
13:24se uđthana padega, toh direct tax, chunki is
13:26samaia aandhani toh businesses ki badh jayegi, toh direct
13:29tax kya aap jahe uđtha saktete hain. Toh indirect tax kamb
13:32karke direct tax ki taraf aap jayen, toh phir jahe
13:35equity aayegi, or phir demand bhi better ho
13:37jayegi, or ruzgaar bhi phir better ho jayegi. Okay, thank you
13:41so much sir. Aapne bata ya ki abhi sabse badhi
13:43chinouti dyesht ke sámeni kya hai, or nipatne ke liye
13:45serokar ko kya kuch karna chahi, iske sath hi
13:47mehengahi se nipatne ke liye serokar ko kohon se
13:49muddha pe fokus karna chahi, or policyo me kya kuch
13:51patlao karna chahiye. Buhut-buhut dhaniwaad sir,
13:53aapne vakt nika alamad darsakko ke liye, thank you so much sir.
13:56Namaste.

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