00:00Let's get more analysis on that now with Sambit Bhattacharya, Professor of Economics at the University of Sussex Business School
00:07in the UK.
00:08Thank you so much for being with us today.
00:10So we've been looking at these very dramatic pictures of a fireball and smoke at the main international airport in
00:17Riyadh.
00:18How serious a deterioration of the security situation in Saudi Arabia over the past few days is this?
00:23And how much impact economically, psychologically is this having with this targeting of civilian aviation?
00:31Thank you for having me. This has been brewing for quite a while and it's moving only in one direction.
00:38We can see that it is escalating the tensions between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis who call themselves Ansar Allah.
00:47And, you know, there have been attacks on the Saudi east-west pipeline and critical infrastructure by the Houthis.
00:55So the tensions are growing.
00:59Indeed. And why has the conflict between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis escalated so much?
01:04And what's the end game here, do you think, for the Houthis in Yemen?
01:09Well, I guess that the Yemeni civil war has been ongoing for almost a decade, if not longer.
01:15And, you know, the composition of that civil war is that the Houthis are broadly backed by the Iranians.
01:25And the internationally recognized government of Yemen is backed by Saudi Arabia.
01:32The situation is that the balance of power is shifting quite almost decisively in favor of the Houthis.
01:42Houthis now control about 70 to 80 percent of population centers and some of the key ports and infrastructure in
01:51Yemen.
01:51And, you know, they are very close to reaching what used to be southern Yemen and the key port city
01:58of Aden on the Red Sea coast.
02:05So it is getting quite critical.
02:08And is essentially Iran really behind this escalation as well?
02:13And how likely is it that Saudi allies, particularly the United States, will be drawn into a direct military involvement?
02:21I guess to what extent Iran is directly involved in offering military supplies to the Houthis is largely unknown.
02:30But what is more important, perhaps, is that Iran's adversaries, both in the region as well as globally,
02:39which is the U.S., Israel and also Saudi Arabia, are directly now threatened by what they perceive to be
02:48Iranian proxy.
02:49So it's quite likely that this will escalate further and the conflict between the U.S. and Iran remains unresolved.
02:59So this direct attack on Saudi Arabia will quite likely draw U.S. into direct military confrontation and direct military
03:09involvement.
03:10Right. And with key shipping routes, of course, increasingly vulnerable, how serious is the threat of a wider Middle East
03:17conflict now?
03:18How much more worse could this get?
03:20It cannot be emphasised anymore how serious the threat is.
03:25Already, President Trump threatened military action, you know, a serious military action on Iran.
03:34And also kind of, you know, the Houthis already control pretty much sort of the Red Sea coastline of Yemen
03:44and the key sea routes in the Al-Mandab Strait, etc.,
03:50which is critically important for global commerce and passage of fuel.
03:59So, you know, a wider Middle Eastern conflict, if the U.S. directly gets involved into Yemen, is quite likely.
04:08It will have serious, serious implications for the region.
04:13If I am to make a guess, I would think that, you know, if there is a wider Middle Eastern
04:19conflict involving all parties, including Israel,
04:23then we might expect, you know, humanitarian, serious humanitarian challenges, perhaps far greater than what we have seen during the
04:36Iraq war.
04:37Professor Sambit Bhattacharya from the University of Sussex, thank you so much for your insights today.
