What are the possible endings to the Iran conflict? In this Quick Take from The YoJoeShow™ Podcast In Focus #13, intelligence analyst and military expert Ryan McBeth breaks down three scenarios -- best case, worst case, and most likely -- for how the Iran war could conclude.
Ryan explains why Iran's $450-500 million/day oil revenue loss makes government collapse increasingly likely, why Persians won't fracture like Iraq did, and why the Strait of Hormuz is losing its power as Iran's trump card. Then, Yo presents a bold hypothesis: what if the US provided close air support to Iranian protesters, enabling a 1979-style regime change? Ryan delivers a frank reality check on why that's far harder than it sounds -- from MANPADS threats to A-10s, from the Hormuz Island "ink blot" strategy to why the Kurds finally said "not a fourth time."
This is a Quick Take from the full episode. Watch the complete interview with Ryan McBeth on The YoJoeShow™ Podcast In Focus #13.
[This video is available in 4K with Auto-Dubbing into numerous languages]
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• Ryan McBeth: www.youtube.com/@RyanMcBethProgramming
- A welcome to his Channel: https://youtu.be/1F2yvFzyoWs?si=_uEIhb6KZ3iJvpTt
More from Ryan:
• Official Website: ryanmcbeth.com
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⏱️ Timestamps:
0:00 — Open
0:08 — Sponsored by PodExcel.ai
0:31 — Best Case: Iran's Economic Collapse
1:27 — Why Persians Aren't Arabs (No Tribalism)
2:10 — Iran's Two Armies: IRGC vs. Artesh
2:31 — "Slowly Then All at Once" — Regime Collapse
2:51 — Worst Case: US Packs Up & Leaves
3:29 — Most Likely: Iran Becomes Irrelevant
4:01 — Strait of Hormuz & the Insurance Problem
5:24 — Iran's Caspian Sea Export Crisis
6:04 — Volga Tankers & the Suez Canal Route
7:27 — Is the Iran Conflict Essentially Over?
8:24 — Yo's Hypothesis: Protests with Close Air Support
10:34 — A-10s, Drones & Basij Checkpoints
11:04 — 1979 Déjà Vu: Could Pahlavi Return?
11:51 — Ryan's Reality Check: Harder Than It Sounds
12:05 — The Hormuz Island "Ink Blot" Strategy
12:48 — Special Forces: Teachers, Not Door-Kickers
13:14 — A-10s vs. MANPADS: The Low-Altitude Threat
14:03 — Best Bet: Kurds + Bandar Abbas Training
14:31 — Mossad's Plan & Erdogan's Intervention
14:51 — The Kurds' Refusal: "Not a Fourth T
