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00:00:01From the day it started, the Russia-Ukraine war has been described by experts, analysts and commentators as the ultimate
00:00:08David versus Goliath battle.
00:00:10On the one side, there's Russia, with all of its immense resources, unrivalled stockpiles of tanks and armoured vehicles,
00:00:17vast Navy and Air Force fleets, and Hydra-like army, where there always seems to be thousands of fresh recruits
00:00:23to replace those that are lost.
00:00:24On the other side, there's Ukraine, far smaller, far weaker, at least on paper, and with far less military muscle
00:00:31to throw around.
00:00:33This is why, back in 2022, the end result of the war always felt like a foregone conclusion.
00:00:39Russia had so many advantages, it simply couldn't lose.
00:00:42Yet, here we are, almost five years in.
00:00:45The conflict is still raging, and a resounding Russian victory seems an increasingly distant and unlikely prospect.
00:00:51This wouldn't have happened without Western aid, of course, but it also could have happened without Ukrainian resilience, innovation and
00:00:59adaptation either.
00:01:00Kyiv's forces somehow found a way to turn Russia's biggest advantage into its greatest weakness, and in doing so, it
00:01:07gave itself a very real chance of not merely enduring this war, but winning it.
00:01:11But before we explain how, the military show now offers exclusive content for channel members only.
00:01:17Consider joining the family today to enjoy instant access to some of our most exciting reports.
00:01:23Now, it's no understatement to say that when Russian forces took their first steps into Ukraine in February 2022, this
00:01:31looked like one of the most uneven contests the military world had ever seen.
00:01:34No matter what metric you looked at, Moscow appeared to have the advantage.
00:01:39It had more tanks, it had more armoured vehicles, it had more combat aircraft, warships, artillery, missiles and air defences.
00:01:47It didn't just have an edge in aspects like manpower funding or industrial capacity, it was positively light years ahead
00:01:53of its opponent.
00:01:54Ukraine may have had some stockpiles of old Soviet systems, but its defence sector had been underfunded and overlooked for
00:02:01many years.
00:02:02Its air force had undergone some serious downsizing since the fall of the Soviet Union, and its navy was basically
00:02:08non-existent.
00:02:09But it wasn't defenceless, and it had some exceptionally shrewd and highly experienced tactical planners in charge of its operations,
00:02:17with more brilliant minds from the country's civilian population subsequently signing up to join the war effort and play their
00:02:23part in defending their homeland.
00:02:25Together, these tacticians came to a clear and obvious conclusion.
00:02:29It was the same kind of conclusion that dozens of countries and military forces had arrived in the past, when
00:02:35having to face a much larger and more formidable opponent.
00:02:38Ukraine realised that this was not a war it had any chance of winning via conventional means.
00:02:43It couldn't go toe-to-toe or tank-to-tank with Russia.
00:02:46It simply didn't have the resources for that, and even if it might have been able to hold out for
00:02:51a certain amount of time,
00:02:52the sheer weight of the Kremlin's military would eventually prove too great to cope with or contain any longer.
00:02:58So, Ukraine had to find a way to shift the way the war was fought, to rewrite the rulebook, to
00:03:04flip the script so that Russia's advantages became liabilities and Ukraine's weaknesses became strengths.
00:03:10That meant embracing asymmetric warfare, not just here and there, or to a certain degree, but wholeheartedly.
00:03:16As international relations expert Gonzalo Oliveira writes in a report for the Defense Post,
00:03:21Ukraine turned asymmetric warfare, historically an option born out of necessity, into formal state doctrine, upending battlefield logic in the
00:03:30process.
00:03:31This is what separates Ukraine from so many other countries throughout history, that have been on the receiving end of
00:03:36an attack or invasion by a much larger force.
00:03:39Many of those countries understood that their only chance of surviving or succeeding was through asymmetric tactics, but they often
00:03:46resorted to improvising their asymmetric strategies on the fly, working things out as they went along, which sometimes left gaps
00:03:53in their defenses for their enemy to exploit.
00:03:56Ukraine didn't do that.
00:03:57This wasn't a case of disparate groups or military branches working independently on asymmetric tactics to undermine their opponent.
00:04:05Instead, the whole of the Ukrainian military and its political leadership worked together to build asymmetry into everything they did,
00:04:12every big decision, every operation and every military move they made.
00:04:17As Oliveira continues, the Ukrainian model of asymmetry is distinctive because of the deep coordination between the state, civil society,
00:04:25private tech actors and an open source intelligence apparatus.
00:04:29And the result of that coordination is one of the most effective asymmetric warfare campaigns ever fought, incorporating drones, remote
00:04:38warfare tactics, intelligence dominance, a decentralized defensive posture, civilian participation and lightning fast technological development.
00:04:47As a consequence, Russia's strength didn't go away, but Ukraine reframed what it was worth.
00:04:52And without doubt, the biggest contributor to that reframing was drone technology.
00:04:56Interestingly, it was Russia that made the early headlines for its use of drones, when it began sending swarms of
00:05:03Iranian shahids and domestically developed unmanned aerial vehicles, UAVs, over the border to bombard Ukrainian towns and cities, leaving fires,
00:05:11casualties and rubble in their wake.
00:05:13But then Ukraine began to turn this technology against its opponent.
00:05:18While Russia was spending tens of thousands of dollars on single UAVs, Ukraine found ways to make its own drones
00:05:24for a fraction of the cost.
00:05:25And it didn't use them to bombard innocent civilians.
00:05:28It used them to take out Russia's most high value assets, like tanks, bombers, armored vehicles, missile systems, artillery and
00:05:36radar.
00:05:36All of a sudden, Ukraine was using relatively tiny amounts of cash to take out multi-million dollar enemy assets.
00:05:43This was the ultimate example of Kyiv's forces turning Moscow's strength against it.
00:05:48The Kremlin rolled confidently into this war, banking on the incredible amount of heavy-duty vehicles at its disposal.
00:05:55It thought that its vast tank fleet would easily tear Ukraine apart, and its commanders happily gave the orders for
00:06:00vast mechanized columns to attack tiny towns and villages across the Donbass and beyond.
00:06:06But then Ukraine turned the tables.
00:06:08It transformed those tanks from powerful death machines into massive metal targets.
00:06:13And every time it took one out, the Kremlin was forced to foot the bill.
00:06:17As the weeks and months went by, and Ukraine's drone army only got bigger and better, with pilots and operating
00:06:23crews gaining experience and proficiency, Russia's losses continued to multiply.
00:06:28And it eventually reached the stage where Moscow had no other choice but to go back to the drawing board
00:06:33and rewrite the doctrines it had relied on for generations.
00:06:36It stopped deploying tanks and armored vehicles in frontline locations.
00:06:40Not only that, but after Ukraine also carried out numerous successful drone strikes against the Kremlin's Black Sea fleet and
00:06:47air bases in places like Crimea and western regions of Russia,
00:06:51Moscow also made the call to withdraw large parts of its navy and use its fighter jets and tactical bombers
00:06:57much more sparingly, too.
00:06:58And it was all thanks to some cheap drones and Ukraine's remarkable ability to use them in the most strategic
00:07:04and sensible ways.
00:07:06So, many reports on the war have focused on how Ukraine's drone strikes unfold.
00:07:11There was much media coverage of the famous Operation Spiderweb strikes, for example,
00:07:16which involved dozens of FPV drones being secretly smuggled across Russia to wreak havoc on airfields around the country.
00:07:23But it's even more impressive when you zoom out and look at the bigger picture of how drones allowed Ukraine
00:07:28to change the way the war was fought.
00:07:31If Russia had its way, it would still be deploying tanks and armored fighting vehicles up and down the front
00:07:36lines.
00:07:37It would still be relying on its biggest advantage, brute force strength, in the hope of overwhelming its opponent.
00:07:43But Ukraine has made that impossible.
00:07:46It's cancelled out its enemy's primary tactic and forced it to fight on a much more even playing field,
00:07:52which is arguably the biggest reason why the war is still ongoing to this day,
00:07:56and why Russia's advances have slowed and even stalled in many locations,
00:08:00even as its losses of both men and military equipment continue to surge.
00:08:04But before we look even deeper at how Ukraine shifted the odds in its favor,
00:08:08this is why we make the military show, to explain how power really moves.
00:08:12If you're new here, hit subscribe so you don't miss what's next.
00:08:16Now, Ukraine didn't stop at simply targeting and taking out Russia's most expensive equipment with its drones.
00:08:23Especially after the Kremlin began treating its tanks and other military vehicles a little more carefully,
00:08:28Kyiv's drone crews realized that they weren't going to be able to simply keep on taking artillery systems and air
00:08:34defenses off the map with impunity.
00:08:36They needed to find other ways to use their UAVs to disrupt the Kremlin's war machine.
00:08:40Fortunately, that was arguably even easier than taking out the tanks,
00:08:45because Ukraine's drone pilots realized that they don't even necessarily need to hit a target to cause problems for the
00:08:51Kremlin's forces.
00:08:52If they deploy a few drones and force Russia into scrambling its fighters, for example,
00:08:57or activating its air defenses, or suspending operations at an airport,
00:09:02or launching interceptor missiles, or repositioning radar stations, all of that matters.
00:09:07All of that counts as a victory, because it's using up the enemy's resources.
00:09:12It's distracting them.
00:09:13It's taking manpower and focus away from more important matters,
00:09:17and putting the Russians on the back foot when they want to be on the front foot.
00:09:20And this is where another of Russia's advantages, its size, start to become a problem.
00:09:25At around 6.6 million square miles , Russia is by far the biggest country on Earth,
00:09:33and it positively dwarfs Ukraine, being almost 30 times larger overall.
00:09:38In most cases, that's an obvious advantage.
00:09:41More space means more resources, and when combined with more people,
00:09:45it also means more infrastructure, like factories, bases, supply lines, logistic nodes,
00:09:49and other important elements that any country needs to conduct and sustain a long-term military operation.
00:09:56Russia's vast size also meant that it could store important assets,
00:09:59like reserve tanks and air defenses, far out of reach of Ukraine's drones and missiles,
00:10:05keeping them safe until such time as they were needed.
00:10:08Plus, it allowed the Kremlin's forces to attack their opponent from multiple directions,
00:10:12opening several axes of attack, and forcing Ukraine to adapt accordingly.
00:10:16At the same time, size isn't always an advantage in times of war.
00:10:21It can be much more costly to have to guard, defend, and monitor long borders and broader areas of land,
00:10:27for example,
00:10:27and it takes more time, and money, to move troops and supplies across vast distances.
00:10:33There are also logistical complexities involved when maintaining a war for several years,
00:10:37when you also have such a large population to provide for, and so much ground and infrastructure to maintain.
00:10:43Ukraine realized that.
00:10:44And the longer the war went on, the more it understood that its best chance of winning
00:10:49was never going to be defeating the Russian army or pushing the enemy all the way back out of Ukraine.
00:10:54It was by making the conflict as costly as possible for Russia,
00:10:58in the hope that the Kremlin would eventually reach a point
00:11:01where it accepts that it would be better off bringing its troops home and agreeing to a ceasefire deal.
00:11:06Drones could make that happen.
00:11:08Ukraine could use the $5,000 UAV to force Russia to spend 10 times that amount, if not more, in
00:11:14preventative or retaliatory actions.
00:11:17It was the perfect embodiment of asymmetric warfare, and if Kyiv could repeat that process enough times,
00:11:23if it could give Russia an almost impossibly big bill to pay, it had a chance of getting the result
00:11:28it wanted.
00:11:28Not an outright victory, but a strategic one.
00:11:32And so, Ukraine went all in on drone warfare.
00:11:35It became the first country in the world to have an entire separate branch of its military dedicated to UAVs,
00:11:41the unmanned systems forces, and it gave that branch the power and resources it needed to wreak havoc for Russia,
00:11:47not just in the occupied territories, but far beyond.
00:11:50And so, we come to Ukraine's next incredibly intelligent and influential move,
00:11:56fast-tracking its defense industry.
00:11:58Usually, even in military superpowers, it can take many years for new weapons and military systems to be developed,
00:12:04prototyped, tested, fine-tuned, and finally introduced for real-world service.
00:12:09Ukraine didn't have that kind of time, and it had no intention of wasting a single moment of its war
00:12:14with Russia,
00:12:15because it didn't want to give its enemy any opportunity to gain any sort of advantage that could have otherwise
00:12:20been avoided.
00:12:21So, it slashed red tape, it dismantled bureaucracy, it cut out the middlemen,
00:12:26and it made the process of designing, developing, and using new weapons and systems faster than almost anywhere else on
00:12:32Earth.
00:12:33As Defense CEO Dr. Robert Brühl notes in his own report for the Defense Post,
00:12:38Ukrainian drone manufacturers, some of them engineers barely out of school,
00:12:42are designing, building, deploying, and improving drones at breathtaking speed.
00:12:47Ukrainian engineers told me they were baffled by their Western counterparts' six-month testing schedules.
00:12:52Testing in Ukraine takes a day. The enemy isn't going to wait for a certification process.
00:12:58Brühl also notes how Ukraine's defense contractors aren't separate entities from the soldiers fighting on the front lines.
00:13:04Instead, there's almost total integration between the two. Troops regularly communicate with engineers to fine-tune designs.
00:13:11Drone pilots provide feedback to Kyiv's firms about their needs and challenges, and those same firms build solutions.
00:13:18There's a constant dialogue between the two sides, a continuous back and forth that helps to dramatically reduce the amount
00:13:24of wasted time and resources,
00:13:25as well as the risks of needless mistakes being made, while also ensuring that the Ukrainian armed forces get the
00:13:31ideal equipment they need to achieve their objectives.
00:13:34And that equipment doesn't have to be world-beating or incredibly expensive.
00:13:39It simply has to be designed with a clear goal in mind.
00:13:42As Brühl says,
00:13:43What's impressive about these drones isn't that they're high-tech, it's that they're not.
00:13:48The Ukrainians I spoke to were blunt. Western systems are over-engineered, beautifully specified, expensively tested, and much too slow
00:13:56to improve once circumstances change.
00:13:59The same logic can apply to large parts of Russia's military equipment too.
00:14:03The Kremlin has, for decades, poured billions of dollars into high-end military innovations.
00:14:08It's shown off its latest and greatest tanks and hypersonic missile systems at Moscow parades,
00:14:14and attempted to wow the world with its latest generation jets, bombers, and air defenses.
00:14:19Even in the drone space, it hasn't really focused on cheap and basic models, opting instead for larger, more complex
00:14:25systems with greater-than-average price tags.
00:14:28Ukraine's equipment, meanwhile, may be more rudimentary overall, but that's not necessarily a downside.
00:14:35Rudimentary equipment can still be immensely effective, and it's far cheaper to make basic drones in massive quantities,
00:14:41or to repurpose old Soviet tanks and decades-old Western systems in ways that make them relevant for modern combat
00:14:47conditions,
00:14:48than it is to create whole new tanks or air defenses from scratch.
00:14:52As Brühl explains,
00:14:53Ukraine also uses quite simplistic production techniques for many of its systems, such as 3D printing,
00:14:59which means that parts can be redesigned with almost no delay, and weapons can be made in almost any location.
00:15:05There's no need for Kyiv to build huge production plants and giant drone factories, like Russia does,
00:15:11which will simply turn into huge shiny targets for Moscow's missiles that can simply make the equipment it needs wherever
00:15:17and whenever it wants.
00:15:18The commitment to getting cheap but effective assets off production lines and into the hands of frontline defenders has enormously
00:15:25helped Ukraine to even the odds with Russia.
00:15:28And even though the Kremlin can count on far larger production plants and far greater funds,
00:15:33Ukraine can get new weapons designed, perfected, and into the field more quickly.
00:15:37And in a war like this, which revolves so heavily around fast-moving technologies like drones and electronic warfare systems,
00:15:45that sort of speed is an invaluable advantage.
00:15:47Even the fact that Russia has more people than Ukraine has been turned against it.
00:15:52With a population of more than 140 million people, Russia's population is around 3.5 times larger than Ukraine's.
00:15:58On paper, that means that the Kremlin can more easily recruit the enormous amounts of active-duty personnel it requires
00:16:05to overwhelm its opponent.
00:16:07And Moscow has certainly done that over the course of the war, resorting to a range of tactics,
00:16:12including mobilizations, aggressive recruitment campaigns, blackmail, and even dragging convicts from their prison cells to send them to the frontlines.
00:16:21However, the fact that the Kremlin has so many people to call on has also made it somewhat complacent.
00:16:26Even Russian military bloggers have criticized their country's so-called meat-grinder tactics
00:16:31and tendencies to treat troops like disposable livestock rather than valuable assets.
00:16:36This, in turn, has led to devastating losses on the Russian side,
00:16:40with Moscow's army suffering close to 1.5 million casualties, according to the most recent counts.
00:16:46Ukraine has also lost a lot of people, but it understood from day one that it needed to treat its
00:16:51troops with much more care
00:16:52if it were to have any hope of competing with Russia.
00:16:55So, while the Kremlin's commanders coldly order assault squads to march into minefields
00:17:00and needlessly lay down their lives in poorly planned operations and suicidal strategies,
00:17:05their Ukrainian counterparts have been much more prudent with the people under their command.
00:17:09Rather than asking soldiers to carry out every dangerous task imaginable,
00:17:14Ukraine has increasingly looked to prioritize unmanned autonomous systems wherever possible,
00:17:18using them for everything from reconnaissance and intelligence gathering to strike missions and frontline patrols.
00:17:24As Dr. Bruhl concludes,
00:17:26Autonomy is the answer to a specific question.
00:17:29How do you fight a war when you're running out of people to fight it?
00:17:33This, too, gives Ukraine an edge over Russia that simply wouldn't have seemed possible back in 2022.
00:17:39It means that the longer the war continues with current casualty rates,
00:17:42the harder it will become for the Kremlin to keep recruiting and deploying the troops it needs to get things
00:17:47done.
00:17:48Ukraine, meanwhile, despite also suffering casualties of its own,
00:17:51will only become more dependent on its increasingly diverse and adaptable array of unmanned systems to fight the war for
00:17:58it.
00:17:59It's a bittersweet symphony, and it must feel like the worst of life to Russia right now.
00:18:05Operation Vivaldi is in full swing, and Act 2 has just arrived.
00:18:10Kamikaze robots are being airdropped behind Russian lines,
00:18:14territory is being liberated, and Russian soldiers are going down in the thousands.
00:18:19The second of four seasons is upon us, and there is nothing that Russia can do about it.
00:18:24As promised, I am reporting good news, declared the commander of Ukraine's 3rd Army Corps, Brigadier General Andrei Beletsky, in
00:18:32a September 20th statement.
00:18:33What followed was indeed good news for Ukraine, and an absolute horror show for Russia.
00:18:38The second season of Operation Vivaldi is upon Russia, and territory is being liberated left and right.
00:18:45Ground has been retaken, several settlements are firmly back in the hands of Ukraine, Beletsky reports,
00:18:50and though full details about the operation are being kept firmly under wraps as Ukraine ensures operational security,
00:18:56we have plenty of news about the outcomes so far, which have reversed 18 months of Russian gains in a
00:19:02matter of weeks.
00:19:03Before we go deeper, are you enjoying our reporting? Subscribe and share your thoughts below.
00:19:08And if you'd like to support the real people behind the channel, consider becoming a member for exclusive content.
00:19:13We'll start with the territory and settlements.
00:19:16Ukraine has liberated the settlements of Derilova and Chandrilova, along with gaining full control over the settlement of Drobosheva,
00:19:23which is in the Liman sector, where Ukraine has been ruining Russian positions for several months now.
00:19:28Several of these settlements are strategically significant.
00:19:31Drobosheva is northeast of the key Donetsk fortress belt cities of Kramatorsk and Slovyansk.
00:19:36Whoever holds it has a springboard. For Russia, that springboard enables assaults that bring it closer to the fortress belt.
00:19:43For Ukraine, the springboard enables deeper pushes against the Russian lines, forcing Putin's soldiers away from the belt.
00:19:50Chandrilova has been noted as a critical point for both our troops and the enemy by Beletsky,
00:19:56suggesting the settlement also provides access to the fortress belt and could perhaps be used as a logistical hub.
00:20:01All told, Ukraine has liberated 40 square kilometers of Donetsk and counting during the second act of its brutal symphony.
00:20:08We don't just have to take Ukraine's word for this either.
00:20:11As the Kyiv Post points out, all of this has been confirmed by the open source mapping and analysis organization
00:20:17DeepState.
00:20:18Its maps tell the story.
00:20:20As of September 20th, Chandrilova and Derilova were under Ukraine's control.
00:20:25DeepState also notes that Ukraine's forces have secured several tactical positions surrounding Chandrilova.
00:20:30which may give us some hints about what's to come during the third act of the symphony.
00:20:35Not that the second act wasn't impressive enough in its own right.
00:20:38It follows on from a brilliant first act, which saw Ukraine shatter a Russian salient near Liman
00:20:44and reclaim about 75 square kilometers of territory while regaining several settlements, including Novosilivka, Oleksandrivka and Yarova.
00:20:52So far, Operation Vivaldi has delivered around 125 square kilometers of territory back into Ukraine's hands.
00:20:59And this second act is special not just because of its gains, but because of the methods Ukraine used to
00:21:05make those gains.
00:21:06The rules of assaults have been rewritten.
00:21:08Ukraine has been dropping ground robots from the sky onto the Russians.
00:21:12Before we explore that unique tactic, Russia has suffered painful defeats in more ways than one.
00:21:18The loss of territory is bad enough.
00:21:20That will set Putin's plans for Donetsk back by months, if not years.
00:21:24But even more painful for Russia is that it's losing thousands of soldiers to Operation Vivaldi
00:21:29and many thousands more across the entire front.
00:21:31As the Kremlin's only strategy seems to be to smash its way through with meat that Ukraine can easily handle.
00:21:37The first two acts of Operation Vivaldi have resulted in 3,000 Russian casualties, many of which come from key
00:21:43Russian armies.
00:21:45Ukraine's 3rd Army Corps says that Russia's 1st, 20th and 25th Guards Tank armies have all been significantly degraded by
00:21:52the operation,
00:21:53meaning they are in no condition to launch any attempt at a counter that might see them reclaim the lost
00:21:57territory.
00:21:58Those armies will have to be reconstituted with fresh recruits who have no experience and barely any training.
00:22:03Russia might be forced to move more experienced soldiers into the Liman sector, taking them away from other regions of
00:22:09Donetsk, where they are needed.
00:22:11And all the while, Ukraine will be fortifying the territory it's liberated, ensuring that Russia will have to go through
00:22:16hell if it wants any chance of taking it back.
00:22:19Expand the scope across the entire front line, and Operation Vivaldi is contributing to an awful September for Russia.
00:22:25That's according to the head of the Estonian Defense Forces Intelligence Sector, Colonel Ants Kiviselg.
00:22:31For the third week in a row, Russia has lost more than 10,000 troops, including both wounded and killed.
00:22:37This week's average daily losses are around 1,600 troops, meaning that just over 11,000 were lost over the
00:22:43course of a week, Kiviselg reported on September 18th.
00:22:46Adding that these losses continue the terrible trend for Russia of losing more soldiers on the battlefield than it's able
00:22:52to recruit.
00:22:53Russia is losing territory rapidly, and its soldiers are dying in droves.
00:22:58But to compound it all, Ukraine has brought a new tactic to the battlefield that Russia never expected to see.
00:23:03Ground drones are being airlifted into combat zones as part of a brilliant new Ukrainian strategy.
00:23:09Ukraine has used heavy aerial drones for deliveries many times in the past, of course.
00:23:13Traditionally, those heavy drones have been used to drop off supplies for troops on the ground or as motherships for
00:23:19small swarms of FPV drones,
00:23:21which are unleashed and fly straight to Russian targets.
00:23:23But this is different.
00:23:25Ground robots loaded with explosives were sent out on kamikaze missions during the second act of Operation Vivaldi,
00:23:31allowing Ukraine to exploit a complete lack of Russian preparedness.
00:23:34How could Russia be ready? Nothing like this has ever been done before.
00:23:38The operation was the first of its kind, and it saw Ukraine deliver robots up to 10 kilometers beyond the
00:23:44front.
00:23:45Vilecki confirms this, stating,
00:23:46The Third Army Corps became the first in the world to begin airdropping unmanned ground complexes.
00:23:52Our heavy bomber drones deliver kamikaze robotic platforms more than 10 kilometers into the enemy's rear.
00:23:58Once dropped, the robots get to work destroying the Russian rear,
00:24:01but could have offered support to the forces attempting to defend the settlements that Ukraine liberated.
00:24:06Territory may be won by infantry, but Ukraine's approach is to protect its soldiers first,
00:24:11do damage with machines, and then send its troops in to mop up and claim settlements.
00:24:15But the ground robots were just part of a wider strategy.
00:24:19The true brilliance comes from how Ukraine was able to build a strategy that incorporated its airlifted ground robots into
00:24:25a much wider and cohesive whole.
00:24:27Ground robots were combined with unmanned aerial vehicles,
00:24:30which moved ahead of the infantry to shatter the Russian rear and do damage to defensive positions.
00:24:36Ukraine also used artillery and unmanned systems to attack Russian logistical facilities, communications hubs, and command posts.
00:24:44Reserves were hit before they could even get into the fight,
00:24:46and crossings were destroyed to ensure any soldiers in the rear who survived the initial wave
00:24:50couldn't deploy to support the Russian soldiers in the occupied settlements.
00:24:55The infantry followed, its combined warfare done in a way that we've never seen before.
00:24:59Coming back to the use of kamikaze ground robots, there's yet another layer of brilliance to unfold.
00:25:05Think about how a ground robot would traditionally navigate to a target.
00:25:08As its name implies, the robot moves on the ground.
00:25:11That means it has to negotiate whatever obstacles are in its way, including mines, trenches, roads, hills, and any other
00:25:17obstacles such as ruined buildings.
00:25:19All of these barriers would have littered the landscape in the occupied regions of Donetsk that Ukraine targeted with its
00:25:25second act of Operation Vivaldi.
00:25:26Now throw explosives into the mix.
00:25:29Each of these ground robots was loaded with enough firepower to blow holes into Russian positions.
00:25:35But if they were spotted on the ground, they could be attacked, and their explosive payloads would be turned against
00:25:40them.
00:25:40Ukraine got around all of this by flying its ground robots into target zones, drastically shortening their journeys and reducing
00:25:47risk.
00:25:47The results speak for themselves.
00:25:50We're already seeing smatterings of footage emerge of Russian positions being blown to pieces by artillery and kamikaze robots.
00:25:57Much of it comes from the 3rd Army Corps itself, which shared footage to X on September 18th, showing strikes
00:26:03that destroyed a Russian ammunition depot, a drone crew, and even a multiple launch rocket system, with the video being
00:26:09set to Vivaldi's four seasons.
00:26:11A symphony of strikes indeed.
00:26:13The ruination of Russian equipment ahead of the ground forces entering the scene ultimately led to Ukraine retaking three settlements
00:26:20in a key battleground.
00:26:21We mentioned drone crews there.
00:26:24Among those crews were the most dangerous operators in Russia, Rubicon.
00:26:27Often considered the elite drone forces of Russia, Rubicon has been growing since 2025, as it steals Ukrainian ideas and
00:26:35attempts to erode the advantage that Ukraine has in drone warfare.
00:26:38Rubicon has been responsible for a wholesale change in Russian drone tactics, as it pulled operators from the lines and
00:26:44stationed them far behind to make drone operations less risky.
00:26:48Russia supports Rubicon with a state-backed system for training drone pilots, and has ramped up the production of drones
00:26:54for this lethal unit, allowing it to hit Ukrainian logistics and troop gatherings.
00:26:59Rubicon is dangerous, but now it's on the run.
00:27:01According to the Kyiv Independent, Russia has been forced to pull its elite Rubicon operators from northern Donetsk because they're
00:27:07not looking so elite anymore.
00:27:09Russia's best drone operators have suffered heavy losses.
00:27:12Now they're gone.
00:27:13For Ukraine, that means Russia doesn't have the kill zones that it used to have in northern Donetsk, and Rubicon
00:27:18can no longer provide support to Putin's forces on the ground.
00:27:21This is bad for Russia.
00:27:22We may be seeing the foundations being laid for the third act of Operation Vivaldi, as Rubicon's abandonment of its
00:27:29posts will leave many other occupied settlements vulnerable to Ukraine's masterpiece of destruction.
00:27:34Ukraine is changing the way that war is fought, and this change was precipitated by adjustments in Ukraine's ground forces.
00:27:41But before we explain more and explore what all of this means for 2026 and the months to come, this
00:27:46is a reminder that you're watching the military show.
00:27:49We bring you the full picture, not just the headlines.
00:27:52Hit subscribe and enable notifications to stay ahead of the curve.
00:27:57According to the Kyiv Post, everything we've seen so far in Operation Vivaldi was preceded by structural changes that occurred
00:28:03at the highest level of Ukrainian military leadership.
00:28:06Those changes started on September 2nd, when Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky dismissed the commander of the Ground Forces of the
00:28:13Armed Forces of Ukraine, Major General Hennady Shapovalov.
00:28:17He was replaced by Brigadier General Sviatoslav Zaitz, who is an Air Assault Forces veteran and had served as the
00:28:22commander of Ukraine's 20th Army Corps, which operated in the Dnipropotrovsk region.
00:28:27Zaitz is important because he brings a more modern twist to Ukrainian tactics.
00:28:31His experience in Ukraine's air assault forces also means that he understands the need to counter Russian drones, and he
00:28:37also knows how to coordinate strikes.
00:28:40Coordination between different units has been the key to the success of Operation Vivaldi.
00:28:44Corps brigades are working alongside specialized formations to make all of this happen.
00:28:49Though the 3rd Army Corps is doing most of the reporting on results, the operation is the result of work
00:28:54being done by the likes of the 60th Mechanized Brigade, the 21st Separate Unmanned Systems Regiment, the 25th Separate Anti
00:29:01-Tank Battalion, the 3rd Separate Reconnaissance Battalion, and the 125th Separate Heavy Mechanized Brigade.
00:29:07Ukraine's 3rd Separate Assault Brigade has also provided a battalion tactical group and external units, such as the 8th Special
00:29:14Operations Forces Regiment and the RTAN unit of Ukraine's main directorate of intelligence, have also been involved.
00:29:20Would that level of coordination have been possible under Shapovalov? It's hard to say.
00:29:24But it has happened under Zaitz, and Russia has experienced massive losses at a key juncture of the war because
00:29:30of it.
00:29:31Operation Vivaldi is a major success for Ukraine.
00:29:34It could end today, and what it has achieved in Donetsk would still have ruined Putin's plans for the region
00:29:38in 2026.
00:29:40But for Russia, it's just the latest setback in a 2026 that has been filled with them.
00:29:45Ukraine has been launching counter-offensives all year, and they have resulted in the country reclaiming almost 1,000 square
00:29:51kilometers from Russia.
00:29:52Ahead of Operation Vivaldi, much of this territory was reclaimed in the Oleksandrovka direction.
00:29:58But we've also seen Russia lose ground in Kupyansk and elsewhere.
00:30:00What we're seeing here is the failure of Russia's infiltration tactics, at least when it comes to building defenses sturdy
00:30:07enough to stop Ukraine,
00:30:09being combined with Ukraine's tactical genius and clever use of the tools at its disposal.
00:30:13The result for Russia is massive losses.
00:30:16Not that you would know that if you listened to Putin's propagandists.
00:30:20According to the Institute for the Study of War, or ISW, Russia is trying to claim that it has occupied
00:30:25more than 5,300 square kilometers of Ukraine in 2026 through to mid-September.
00:30:30It boggles the mind to see Russia make these sorts of claims when all open sources point to it taking
00:30:35far less than that.
00:30:36The ISW also confirms that Ukraine has liberated almost 1,000 square kilometers, putting the precise figure at 972.56
00:30:45and 60 settlements retaken as of September 19th.
00:30:49Russia's military is lying about what it's achieving. There is no other way to put it.
00:30:53The ISW outright calls out the culture of pervasive lying within Russia's military.
00:30:59And it also seems likely that Russia is trying to claim that any territory onto which it is able to
00:31:03sneak one or two infiltrators is claimed from Ukraine.
00:31:07We've even seen Russia's lies in Donetsk.
00:31:09Earlier in September, Russia tried to claim that it had captured the settlement of Svyatohirsk.
00:31:13It hadn't, not by a long shot.
00:31:16ISW data published in the wake of that claim showed that the nearest Russian forces to that settlement were about
00:31:2120 kilometers away.
00:31:23This is all Russia has left now.
00:31:25Lies upon lies as it tries to convince the world, and perhaps even itself, that things are going according to
00:31:30plan.
00:31:31And all the while, Ukraine is steadily changing everything about how war is fought.
00:31:35Russia might have seen this coming if it was paying attention.
00:31:38As far back as January, the former commander-in-chief of Ukraine's armed forces, Oleksandr Siersky,
00:31:43announced that Ukraine will be carrying out offensive operations in 2026.
00:31:47We will carry out a strategic defensive operation, but we understand that victory cannot be won through defense alone.
00:31:53Therefore, we will conduct offensive operations to maintain the operational initiative, Siersky claimed.
00:31:58Now, whether Russia simply didn't believe him or the Kremlin was arrogant enough to think that Ukraine wouldn't be able
00:32:04to pull off any offensives isn't known.
00:32:05But that doesn't matter now. Russia is in panic mode, as Ukraine has unleashed a series of offensives that have
00:32:11swung the pendulum in terms of which country holds all the momentum in the war.
00:32:15But where all of this really matters is in the Donbas.
00:32:18Putin wants the Donbas badly. It was one of the focuses of his initial campaign of aggression in 2014.
00:32:24And it's in this region where the lion's share of the fighting has been focused since Putin launched his full
00:32:29invasion.
00:32:29But to take the Donbas, Russia needs to claim Donetsk. And for Donetsk to fall, the fortress belt has to
00:32:35collapse, which would open the path to the Donetsk administrative border.
00:32:39Russia has spent 2026 attempting to make headway through that fortress belt.
00:32:44And the settlements that surround the four cities that make up the belt are key.
00:32:47They're launching pads for Russia's offensive against the belt.
00:32:50At least that's the plan.
00:32:52So far, Russia has only succeeded in placing pressure on Konstantinivka, though that city remains in Ukraine's control.
00:32:59Operation Vivaldi has pushed Russia back in the northern region of the fortress belt, meaning that Ukraine has effectively shielded
00:33:05Kramatorsk and relieved pressure on the entire belt by preventing Russia from approaching via the flanks.
00:33:11This is disastrous for Putin.
00:33:12He has spent most of his invasion setting deadlines for the fall of the Donbas, only to see those deadlines
00:33:18fly right by as Russia's progress has been far slower than the Kremlin expected.
00:33:22The most recent of Putin's deadlines sets the end of 2026 as the date the Donbas will finally fall.
00:33:28We don't know if it's delusion or Putin believing misinformation, but there is simply no chance that Russia will take
00:33:34Donetsk by the end of 2026.
00:33:36At this point, Ukraine would have to actively lay down arms and allow Russia to make progress in Donetsk.
00:33:41And even then, we're not confident that Russia would actually be able to take the region by the end of
00:33:45the year, given how poorly it's performed in 2026.
00:33:48Russia's military leadership is calling for an extension on the latest deadline.
00:33:52They're saying that March 31st, 2027 is the date when Donetsk will definitely fall to Russia, even as Russia is
00:33:59actively losing territory to Operation Vivaldi.
00:34:02Again, this could be lies, delusion or Russia being caught up in its own misinformation.
00:34:06But the first month of spring next year seems as ambitious as a guy with broken legs telling us that
00:34:11he's going to beat Usain Bolt in a foot race.
00:34:14It isn't going to happen.
00:34:15Not on the evidence of what we see on the ground in Donetsk.
00:34:18All four of the fortress belt cities remain under Ukraine's control and smaller settlements that Russia needs to assault that
00:34:24belt are being liberated.
00:34:26Russia has lost around 100,000 soldiers in 2026 alone, United 24 Media reports, and its spending at a rate
00:34:34of $150 billion per year, with hundreds of billions more in military spending being concealed by the loans that the
00:34:40Kremlin will never repay, the same outlet reports.
00:34:43It's hard to see where Russia goes from here.
00:34:46And don't forget, Operation Vivaldi hasn't ended.
00:34:48We're only halfway through, maybe less, and there is a lot more to come.
00:34:52We're seeing that operation expand by the day, and as open-source analyst Clement Molan puts it,
00:34:58The operation is one of the most important victories for Ukraine in 2026, which will delay the offensive on northern
00:35:04Donbass.
00:35:04There is more to come.
00:35:06Pressure has been put on Russian positions in Acts 1 and 2 of Operation Vivaldi.
00:35:10Ukraine is keeping quiet about what's coming next, but whatever it is, it will be a work of military art
00:35:15the likes of which Putin and his cronies couldn't conjure up in their wildest dreams.
00:35:20As winter approaches, Russia thinks it has the winning strategy against Ukraine.
00:35:25Missiles and drones unleashed in their hundreds will shatter Ukraine's cities and destroy its energy infrastructure.
00:35:32But Putin should know Ukraine by now.
00:35:35If Russia is going to target Kyiv, Ukraine is going to deliver reminders that Russia's capital is far from safe.
00:35:42Ukraine did just that over the weekend.
00:35:45Something terrifying happened in Moscow as Ukraine unleashed its most impressive aerial assault of the war so far.
00:35:52Russia's capital is burning, and there may just be a new and powerful weapon that has entered the scene.
00:35:59The horror started at 3.19am.
00:36:02That's when a drone danger alert was issued in Moscow in the early hours of September 20th.
00:36:07About half an hour later, Russian military bloggers were already reporting that air defenses were engaging incoming projectiles.
00:36:15What none of those channels knew was that this was the start of something big.
00:36:19The air defense activity lasted for more than an hour and a half as projectile after projectile flew into Russia.
00:36:25By the end of the attack, Moscow was shaken.
00:36:28The city's mayor, Sergei Sobyanin, eventually claimed that Russia's air defenses had destroyed 151 drones over the city.
00:36:36Pravda reports that monitoring data revealed that Ukraine's drones had entered Russia in groups before making their way toward Moscow.
00:36:43However, these early signals showed that nobody understood the true scale of what Ukraine had unleashed until after the dust
00:36:50had settled.
00:36:51The Sunday attacks were the cherry on top of a flaming Sunday.
00:36:56Ukraine had been busy all weekend.
00:36:58Before we continue, if real, human-made military reporting matters to you, subscribe and tell us what you think below.
00:37:05You can also become a member for exclusive content while directly supporting the work behind this channel.
00:37:11Later, Sobyanin was forced to make an admission.
00:37:13The 151 drones that Russia supposedly shot down on Sunday were far from all that Ukraine had launched.
00:37:20Since September 19th, those drones have been coming and coming.
00:37:24By the end of the relentless attack, Sobyanin claimed Russia's air defenses had intercepted over 1,600 drones across the
00:37:31entire country,
00:37:32with 450 of those reportedly downed as they were on their approach to the Russian capital.
00:37:38This wasn't any old attack by Ukraine.
00:37:40This was a record-breaking weekend assault on Moscow, the likes of which we've never seen before.
00:37:45And there's something else to keep in mind.
00:37:47Sobyanin claims that 1,600 drones were intercepted.
00:37:51Even if we assume that to be true, which is hard to do so when Russia makes the claims,
00:37:55that makes 1,600 drones the minimum number that Ukraine launched over the weekend.
00:38:00How do we know?
00:38:01Russia only tells us about interceptions.
00:38:04It tends not to mention when those drones break through defenses and score hits.
00:38:08If you listened solely to Moscow's mayor, you might think that Ukraine's largest ever attack on Russia's capital was unsuccessful.
00:38:15It wasn't, not by a long shot.
00:38:17As Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy revealed in the wake of the attack,
00:38:20Our long-range responses had a very significant impact in the Moscow region last night.
00:38:26One of Russia's key oil industry facilities and the aggressor's logistics facility were hit.
00:38:30There are billions of dollars that sustain the war machine.
00:38:33And indeed there was plenty of damage done.
00:38:36Ukraine's swarms of projectiles scored direct hits on the Gazprom Neft Moscow oil refinery,
00:38:42which is in the Kapotnyia district, located in Moscow's southeast.
00:38:46That refinery is far too close to the center of the city for Putin's liking.
00:38:51Ukraine's drones struck home just 15 kilometers away from the Kremlin,
00:38:55sending a clear signal that they could reach the Russian heart of power if Ukraine wanted them to.
00:39:00Ukraine's drones flew more than 500 kilometers,
00:39:04breaching Russian air defenses to strike a refinery that is among the largest that Russia has to offer.
00:39:09Capable of processing about 11 million tons of crude oil per year,
00:39:14which it turns into a range of products, including gasoline and diesel,
00:39:17this single refinery provides about 40% of the fuel used in the city of Moscow,
00:39:22along with 70% of the gasoline and aviation fuel required for the wider Moscow region.
00:39:28Any disruption caused to this facility has clear ramifications for the residents of Russia's capital city.
00:39:34And there was destruction, plenty of it.
00:39:37Videos are already doing the rounds.
00:39:39Excel and Nova Plus shared several of them,
00:39:41shot by Moscow residents showing massive fires blazing and smoke billowing into the sky.
00:39:46Ukraine has since confirmed what it managed to strike, according to the Kyiv Post.
00:39:51Ukraine's projectiles took out the AVCT-6 primary crude distillation unit at the Moscow refinery,
00:39:58along with an isomerization unit at an integrated refining facility.
00:40:02All key components that will take Russia time and money to repair or replace.
00:40:07And to rub some salt into the wounds, Ukraine also managed to score a successful strike
00:40:11against a warehouse operated by a company called Sovromania Skladskiya Technology in the Sofino district.
00:40:17That warehouse was supposed to be protected by a Pantsir S1 air defense system located just 500 meters away.
00:40:24It wasn't successful.
00:40:26The footage emerging from Sofino shows more fires burning as a testament to how poorly Russia's air defenses are really
00:40:32doing against Ukraine's projectiles.
00:40:35Sobyanin may claim 1,600 interceptions over the weekend.
00:40:38But Ukraine proved that volume combined with skill means it will still do damage no matter how many of its
00:40:45drones are shot down.
00:40:46We keep mentioning drones.
00:40:48However, Ukraine may have thrown something else into the mix on this devastating night for Russia.
00:40:53Before we get to that, there's the timing of this attack to consider.
00:40:57Ukraine just unleashed a record-breaking weekend of strikes and there are two reasons why.
00:41:01Retaliation and something very important that is happening in Russia right now.
00:41:05On the retaliation front, Ukraine struck with such force because Russia had done something similar in the week leading up
00:41:12to the Moscow strike.
00:41:13On September 21st, Zelenskyy reported that Russia had launched over 2,000 drones at Ukraine over the previous week,
00:41:19along with 1,700 air bombs and 19 missiles of various types.
00:41:24Every day and every night we defend ourselves from Russian strikes, Zelenskyy said, as he reported on the damage being
00:41:30done.
00:41:30Russia has been engaged in a relentless aerial assault of its own against Ukraine, with Kyiv becoming a more common
00:41:37target.
00:41:38Air raid alerts are becoming commonplace in the city and Russia isn't relenting, even as children return to school.
00:41:44In fact, an August 31st strike against Kyiv injured two children.
00:41:49Those who are going to school often spend much of their time in basements, hiding from missile and drone strikes,
00:41:54the BBC reports.
00:41:55But Ukraine, turnabout is fair play.
00:41:58The weekend strikes against Moscow have delivered a taste of what Kyiv's citizens experience daily to some of the Russian
00:42:04citizens that Putin values more than most.
00:42:08Moscow is the crown jewel city, the indomitable capital.
00:42:11When Ukraine's drones fly into that city and set its most important refinery on fire,
00:42:17it gets revenge for everything that Russia has been doing, along with sending a message to Moscow's people,
00:42:22your president can't protect you.
00:42:24And that message was especially important over the weekend.
00:42:28September 20th was the final day of Russia's State Duma elections.
00:42:32Ukraine's signal to the population of Moscow couldn't have been clearer,
00:42:36as those heading to the polls on Sunday would have been doing so with the fresh memories of air raid
00:42:40sirens that have been blaring for the last two days.
00:42:43Some would have been able to see the fires and the smoke pouring out of the Moscow refinery as they
00:42:48headed to cast their votes.
00:42:49Now, you may think this is pointless.
00:42:52After all, it's not like the Russian elections are fair.
00:42:54Putin works hard to make sure that anybody who actively opposes him is removed from the ballot long before these
00:43:00elections happen,
00:43:01as he desperately tries to create the impression that Russia's people approve of his actions by giving them limited choices.
00:43:08We saw this strategy in play in the build-up to the most recent State Duma elections.
00:43:12The Moscow Times reports that at least eight candidates for Russia's Communist Party have been disqualified from running ahead of
00:43:18the elections.
00:43:19The parties that successfully field candidates and have the best chance of scoring wins are routinely parties that will vote
00:43:25with Putin,
00:43:26even if they aren't part of the Russian leader's favoured United Russia Party.
00:43:30However, State Duma elections aren't as pointless as you may think.
00:43:33Ukraine certainly seems to think there is a reason to strike as Russians head out to vote.
00:43:37Commander of Ukraine's unmanned systems forces, Robert Brovdy, certainly seemed to think the timing was important, as he took to
00:43:44social media to declare,
00:43:45We took part in the elections in Moscow.
00:43:48We voted for the collapse of the rotten Russian Empire, though, admittedly, there was no such option on the ballot.
00:43:54Then again, we didn't use a ballot.
00:43:56But perhaps more important than this bravado is that votes for parties that Putin doesn't necessarily favour,
00:44:02even if those parties traditionally vote in line with his policies, sends a message.
00:44:06If Russia's Communist Party manages to snatch seats away from United Russia candidates,
00:44:11that represents the best signal that people can give to their president that they're not happy with what's happening in
00:44:16their country.
00:44:17There are already signs that Russians are tired of their president's invasion.
00:44:22DW reports that data from an independent polling company named Xtreme Scan
00:44:26indicates that 60% of Russians believe that the Ukraine invasion has negatively impacted their lives.
00:44:32In another poll, run by the Lavada Center, the same percentage of Russians said they favour peace negotiations with Ukraine.
00:44:40The margins matter in these elections.
00:44:42Even if Putin will still be in power afterward, votes against his favoured party,
00:44:47or narrower wins for the candidates that he pushes, will tell him that his own people are getting unhappy.
00:44:52Ukraine's Moscow strike could just make the margins worse for Putin.
00:44:55But Putin may not be as worried about that as he is about the other news that emerged after Ukraine
00:45:00completed its Moscow mauling.
00:45:02A new weapon has been introduced into the mix.
00:45:05We're going to explain all in a moment.
00:45:07And first, this is a reminder that you're watching the military show.
00:45:11If you haven't subscribed to the channel, now is the perfect time to hit the button and enable notifications to
00:45:17ensure you never miss a video.
00:45:20Zelensky said something very interesting when he reported on Ukraine's success in Moscow.
00:45:36Most of these weapons will be familiar to anybody who has followed Ukraine's long-range strategy.
00:45:42The Flamingo is notorious and both the Palianizia and the Liuchi regularly feature in Ukraine's deep strikes.
00:45:48But there is one weapon in that list that deserves extra attention.
00:45:52The Pelican.
00:45:53Why does this weapon matter?
00:45:55It's a domestically produced ballistic missile that up until this point doesn't appear to have been used against Russia.
00:46:02Immediately after Zelensky posted, speculation started.
00:46:06Did Ukraine use a ballistic missile to strike Moscow?
00:46:09That's the question that the Kyiv Post pondered in a September 20th report.
00:46:13To answer that question, we need to know more about the Pelican.
00:46:16Ukraine's new ballistic missile, which is developed by Firepoint and also known as the FP7,
00:46:21is a tactical ballistic missile that is launched from a ground-based platform and carries a warhead weighing up to
00:46:28150 kilograms.
00:46:29It has a circular error probable of 14 meters and it can move at speeds of up to Mach 4
00:46:35.3.
00:46:36All very impressive stats, though it's the weapon's range that answers all of our questions.
00:46:41The Pelican, at best, has a range of about 300 kilometers.
00:46:44That's the upper end of the base range reported by Firepoint.
00:46:48And it immediately puts the Pelican out of the running for a strike against Moscow by several hundred meters.
00:46:54That isn't to say that this new ballistic missile couldn't have helped.
00:46:57It may well have been involved in a strike elsewhere in Russia.
00:47:00And this missile, which is roughly equivalent to the US-made Atakums,
00:47:04could end up being exceptionally useful for taking out air defense nodes in the occupied territories and Russia's border regions.
00:47:11Thus opening up aerial corridors that weapons with longer ranges can exploit to reach Russia more easily in the future.
00:47:18Still, the Kremlin will be breathing a sigh of relief about the Pelican not being able to reach Moscow.
00:47:22It shouldn't, though. The Pelican isn't the only ballistic missile that Firepoint is developing.
00:47:28A ballistic missile with a much longer range is coming.
00:47:32Named the FP9, this missile is being designed to deliver a payload weighing up to 800 kilograms over a range
00:47:38of 855 kilometers,
00:47:41putting Moscow easily within its range.
00:47:43Accurate up to 20 meters, the FP9 can hit a top speed of max 6.4, making it faster than
00:47:50the Pelican,
00:47:51and has a flight altitude of 70 kilometers.
00:47:54And it's coming perhaps sooner than anybody in the Kremlin would like.
00:47:57Firepoint CEO Irina Terek said on September 10th that the FP9 is currently undergoing flight tests.
00:48:04There is every chance that it will be entering Ukraine's long range arsenal at some point in 2027.
00:48:10When it does, Moscow will have some serious problems on its hands.
00:48:13The drones that are already reaching the city could be replaced by faster and much harder hitting ballistic missiles
00:48:19that have the potential to devastate refineries and military facilities.
00:48:24So the Pelican has taken flight, but likely didn't reach Moscow.
00:48:28If not Ukraine's new ballistic missile, then what did reach Moscow over the weekend?
00:48:32It seems like another of Firepoint's weapons did the majority of the damage.
00:48:37According to Militanyi, wreckage similar to the Flamingo cruise missile drone hybrid
00:48:41was found at the refinery that Ukraine struck.
00:48:44The same outlet also points out that there are videos from the attack
00:48:47where the sound of a jet engine, like the one used in the Flamingo, can be heard.
00:48:51There is no official confirmation yet, though Zelensky did mention the Flamingo
00:48:55as one of the many weapons that Ukraine unleashed in its record-breaking series of strikes.
00:48:59It looks like there is plenty of life left in the Flamingo, even if it is being joined by the
00:49:04Pelican and soon the FP9.
00:49:06Ukraine's latest strike against Moscow sent a well-timed message,
00:49:10but this is what it shows us when it comes to Russia's defenses and Ukraine's strategy.
00:49:15It's clear that Ukraine's campaign against Russia's oil refineries is going to continue.
00:49:20DW reports that Ukraine has struck a Russian refinery on average once every three days during the first eight months
00:49:26of 2026.
00:49:27Those attacks have naturally slashed the amount of refined oil products these facilities can produce, as we can see in
00:49:33the numbers.
00:49:34Russian refinery throughput dropped to 3.8 million barrels of oil per day in June,
00:49:39which was a 20-year low and 30% below the output achieved just a year prior.
00:49:44These attacks are also costing Russia an insane amount of money.
00:49:47By the beginning of May, Russia had lost about $7 billion to Ukraine's strikes against refineries and oil infrastructure.
00:49:54And as the International Energy Agency points out, Russia's gasoline output is down by about 20% in 2026,
00:50:02when compared to 2025, with diesel production having fallen by as much as 30%.
00:50:07The Kremlin has been forced to introduce fuel export restrictions and to import fuel from other countries just to keep
00:50:13pace with domestic demand.
00:50:15As long as Russia is behind domestic demand, they won't be able to sell refined oil products for a profit,
00:50:21which means billions more dollars vanish from Putin's war chest.
00:50:25As for Putin, he is being forced to make choices.
00:50:27Fuel shortages have impacted all of Russia.
00:50:30But Putin is making sure the likes of Moscow and St. Petersburg are weathering the storm better than other regions.
00:50:36The citizens of those regions won't be happy and will have brought this unhappiness into the polling stations.
00:50:42And as Ukraine keeps this up, Putin also has to make choices about whether the military or the people
00:50:47get the gasoline and diesel that Russia is still able to produce.
00:50:51Either way, a sacrifice has to be made.
00:50:53Ukraine is keeping up the pressure on Russian refineries because it wants that sacrifice to be as painful as possible.
00:50:59We can also see from this record-breaking strike that Russia's air defenses simply can't handle the scale of the
00:51:05assaults that Ukraine is now able to launch.
00:51:08Russia's air defenses have been stretched as a result of a Ukrainian campaign to take out as many launchers and
00:51:13radars as possible,
00:51:15both inside Russia and in the occupied territories.
00:51:18Russia keeps having to shuffle its air defense systems around to plug gaps,
00:51:22but that only leads to other gaps forming elsewhere for Ukraine to take advantage of.
00:51:27Licensed engineer at RAND, Michael Bonnet says,
00:51:30Ukrainian drones are still getting through to named units inside the Moscow region.
00:51:35The full air defense picture over Russia remains hard to read.
00:51:38Moscow controls the data flow, so it's nearly impossible to say how many sites are hit or with how many
00:51:44drones.
00:51:44In other words, Russia lies. Often.
00:51:46But the fact is that Ukraine's projectiles are getting through regularly, which means Russia's air defense problems are severe.
00:51:54It's not just Western analysts who are saying so either.
00:51:57In the wake of Ukraine's massive strike, one of the most famous Russian military bloggers,
00:52:02Fighter Bomber, had plenty to say about what Moscow just witnessed.
00:52:05I hope it's clear that any other oil refinery within range of enemy drones and missiles will similarly be sent
00:52:11for yet another unscheduled repair,
00:52:14despite all the MTFs, chain link fencing, Yolker missiles, automated turrets and millions of divine Ka-52s,
00:52:20with the best and most trained crews, and Pantsir turrets with billions of missiles each, he said in a September
00:52:2620th Telegram post.
00:52:28These sound like the words of a Russian propagandist who has lost faith in Russian air defenses.
00:52:33In fact, Fighter Bomber goes as far as to say that it's clear that Moscow's oil refinery will be struck
00:52:38again,
00:52:39and that Ukraine will launch 2,000 drones and flamingos, or 4,000, because they can.
00:52:44Of course, he caps this panicked response by saying that nuclear bombs would solve the issue.
00:52:49But there's nothing new about Russian nuclear threats.
00:52:53His 2026 spring and summer offensive fizzled out like a fart in the wind.
00:52:59Russia is losing record-breaking amounts of troops and equipment.
00:53:04Yet Ukraine keeps on finding ways to inflict more pain.
00:53:08And pain is exactly what Putin feels after what happened over the last few days.
00:53:14We have several stories here.
00:53:16A masterstroke in Rostov-on-Don has seen Ukraine hit a double tap to damage one of Russia's most important
00:53:23regions.
00:53:24Elsewhere, generals are dropping like flies in the occupied territories.
00:53:29One of those generals might have had a chance of surviving, if not for a little twist in his tale.
00:53:35And the other is a notorious faker who just got a sharp dose of reality.
00:53:41We have plenty to dig into, so we'll start with what happened in Rostov.
00:53:45On September 17th, the news broke that Ukraine had targeted a key airfield in Russia's Rostov region,
00:53:52pelting it with a swarm of drones.
00:53:54The Rostov Central Military Airfield went up in flames, and not for the first time.
00:53:59Ukraine has targeted this airfield before.
00:54:02On September 6th, Ukraine reported a strike against the facility that destroyed a podlet radar system
00:54:09and a pair of Pantsir-S-1 air defense systems.
00:54:13There was reason to doubt the strike at the time.
00:54:16Ukraine provided no visual evidence of taking out what it claimed to have taken out.
00:54:21But here we are, 11 days later, and the outcome of this initial strike has been revealed.
00:54:28With its radars and air defenses down, Ukraine was able to get even more drones to the airfield, where they
00:54:34wreaked havoc.
00:54:35The final tally, six aircraft down.
00:54:39We're about to explain more, but before we do, we're real people producing researched and fact-checked military reporting.
00:54:45If you want to support that, then subscribe, share your thoughts below, and consider becoming a member for exclusive content
00:54:52we don't publish publicly.
00:54:54So the six aircraft, that's according to the Kyiv Post, which reports that Ukraine has confirmed strikes against a trio
00:55:01of Russian military helicopters,
00:55:03along with successful strikes against two AN-26 aircraft and an AN-12 plane.
00:55:10Defense Express also reported on the attack, noting that the initial wave of drones did most of the damage, but
00:55:16several secondary explosions at the airfield led to widespread fires on top of the aircraft annihilation.
00:55:24And Ukraine's president, Volodymyr Zelensky, soon hailed the efforts of Ukraine's drone teams with a telegram post, where he also
00:55:31confirmed the damage done.
00:55:33The security service also successfully struck a military airfield in Rostov.
00:55:38Damage to an AN-12 aircraft, two AN-26s, and three helicopters has been confirmed, he said, as he celebrated
00:55:47a joint operation between Ukraine's SBU, SSO, HUR, and SZR.
00:55:52We didn't really need Zelensky's confirmation.
00:55:55The footage emerging from the Rostov Central Military Airfield is proof enough.
00:56:00Both Astra and Exelenova Plus have shared images and videos.
00:56:05As a result of the Ukrainian attack at Rostov-on-Don, the area of the military airfield, where the aircraft
00:56:12are parked, is probably on fire, Astra declared,
00:56:15along with sharing geo-located satellite photos and some images of smoke rising from the airfield.
00:56:22Exelenova Plus offered up some videos showing explosions as they happened, with air defense fire audible in the background.
00:56:30Russia's defenses clearly failed, as Ukraine's earlier Rostov strike had done enough damage to allow its drones to get through.
00:56:37By September 18th, Russian emergency services would have been picking through the rubble and inspecting the charred remains of military
00:56:47aircraft.
00:56:48We don't know much about the helicopters outside of the fact that they have been taken out.
00:56:52But both the AN-12 and AN-26 are transport planes, with the former often being used for troops and
00:56:59cargo while the latter tends to fly support missions.
00:57:02That makes this as much of a strike against Russia's internal logistics as it is an attack against an airfield.
00:57:09But as those emergency services got to work, believing the worst was over, it happened again.
00:57:15The double tap.
00:57:17Just one night after it devastated Rostov, Ukraine sent even more drones into the region.
00:57:23A swarm of over 50 descended, with Russia claiming to have shot drones down over Rostov, as well as the
00:57:29cities of Bataisk, Taganrog and, according to the Rostov regional governor, Yuri Slyazar, five other regions.
00:57:37The governor's statement after the strike featured the old reliable, the excuse that we've all come to know and love.
00:57:44Drone debris did the damage.
00:57:46According to operational information, no one was injured, but there were consequences on the ground as a result of the
00:57:53fall of UAV debris.
00:57:55Emergency services work at the scene of incidents, Slyazar reported on Telegram.
00:58:00In this case, he may have been right.
00:58:03At least if you listen to Russia's reporting, the drone debris hit several residential buildings, which aren't the types of
00:58:11targets that Ukraine tries to strike.
00:58:13UA.News seems to confirm this, sharing images of smoke rising from buildings.
00:58:19Who knew?
00:58:20Sometimes Russia is telling the truth about drone debris.
00:58:23The follow up strike may not have been as successful as the one that came a day prior, but it
00:58:28still delivered a timely warning that nowhere in Russia can truly feel safe from Ukraine's drones.
00:58:35Just because you've been hit a couple of times already in a month, that's no guarantee that more aren't coming
00:58:41very soon.
00:58:42And it's clear why Ukraine wants to hit Rostov as many times as possible.
00:58:47The oblast is the headquarters of Russia's southern military district.
00:58:52From this district, UA.News says all operational command for Russia's forces on the front lines in Ukraine is managed.
00:59:00Add the military airfields, which serve as logistical hubs, as well as launch sites for fighter jets and bombers that
00:59:07fling missiles and glide bombs into Ukraine, and you get a very obvious target.
00:59:13If Rostov goes down, Russia loses a hub that keeps ammo, fuel and soldiers flowing into places like Zaporizhia, Donetsk
00:59:21and Luhansk.
00:59:22The attacks against Russian supply aircraft make even more sense in this context.
00:59:28We just mentioned Donetsk, and there is big news coming out of that embattled region.
00:59:34But before we reveal what that is, there is a little bit of a bonus strike to add to Ukraine's
00:59:39Rostov ruination.
00:59:40Though Rostov captured all the headlines, Ukraine's drones also visited another location on September 17th.
00:59:47They arrived in Yaroslavl, where their target once again was a Russian oil refinery.
00:59:54One of the largest in the country, in fact.
00:59:56The Moscow Times reports that Ukraine's drones were successful, causing a fire at a refinery that has a crude oil
01:00:03processing capacity of 300,000 barrels per day.
01:00:08Another day, another dirty oil dollar goes up in smoke.
01:00:12And a Russian general has gone up in smoke, too.
01:00:16A pair of them, in fact, with the first being taken out in a region we've already mentioned.
01:00:22Donetsk.
01:00:23Just three days before Russia was forced to deal with a Rostov catastrophe,
01:00:28the news broke that a Russian general, who has been a cornerstone of Putin's offensive in Donetsk, has been wiped
01:00:36off the map.
01:00:37Lieutenant General Sergei Milchakov, who was the commander of Russia's 51st Combined Arms Army
01:00:43and had been overseeing much of the attempted Russian push against the Donetsk fortress belt, has been killed in a
01:00:50strike in the Occupied Oblast.
01:00:51The news broke a few weeks after the strike actually happened.
01:00:55The first hints we got of something big emerging came on August 27th, when Ukraine's Ministry of Defense confirmed it
01:01:03had scored hits against command posts that Russia was trying to hide.
01:01:07Yesterday in Donetsk, precision strikes destroyed concealed command posts of Russian occupation forces, the Ministry said.
01:01:15Adding that it was verifying reports that there had been heavy casualties among Russia's officers at these command posts.
01:01:22Less than a month later, we have confirmation that the reports have been verified.
01:01:28Russia has lost one of its most important generals.
01:01:31The loss has been confirmed by several sources, including a Russian journalist named Anastasia Kashavarova.
01:01:37Part of Putin's propaganda machine, she has quickly tried to frame Milchakov's death as a tragedy, stating,
01:01:45the front has lost one of its heroes, before she added that she wouldn't be reporting anything more until she
01:01:51had more information.
01:01:52Other eulogies for this supposed hero are less glowing.
01:01:57Analyst Ilya Ponomarenko shared that Milchakov was an extremely high-value target, and there are hopes that plenty of officers
01:02:04met their fates with him,
01:02:06given the supposedly top-secret location that Ukraine was able to locate and destroy in August.
01:02:13There's a good chance that Milchakov's is just the start.
01:02:17Russia's brass would have felt comfortable gathering in relatively large numbers at their secret Donetsk base,
01:02:23and the presence of Milchakov at that base suggests a meeting was going down as Ukraine attacked.
01:02:30Still, we have to wait for more confirmation there, and even if it's only Milchakov who went down, that's still
01:02:35a big win for Ukraine.
01:02:36The general had been involved in offensive operations in the Pokrovsk and Dobropylia directions at the time of his death,
01:02:44meaning he was helping to lay more foundations for Russia's assault against the Donetsk fortress belt.
01:02:49Putin clearly held this general in great esteem.
01:02:53He was awarded the Hero of Russia title for his actions in Donetsk.
01:02:57A true Russian hero, Milchakov has been investigated on charges of drug trafficking among military personnel, as well as corruption.
01:03:06Interesting choice of hero there, Putin.
01:03:08And it's here where we see the big twist.
01:03:11Perhaps some in Russia don't view a corrupt drug peddler as the big hero that Putin claims him to be.
01:03:17Others may have seen the horrors that Milchakov has unleashed on Donetsk,
01:03:21and decided that it was time to get rid of the general.
01:03:24Either way, it looks like Ukraine wasn't operating solely on information that its own operatives had gathered
01:03:30before they launched the Donetsk attack that took the general's life.
01:03:33But before we reveal more, this is a reminder that you're watching the military show.
01:03:38If you haven't subscribed yet, now's the time to hit that button and do it.
01:03:42And if you want to be informed as soon as our videos go live, remember to ring the notification bell.
01:03:49In more breaking news, it's starting to look like Milchakov wasn't especially well-liked within his own ranks.
01:03:56After all, if he was, then he wouldn't have fallen victim to the one thing that could unravel the secrecy
01:04:01that surrounded his meeting points.
01:04:03A mole.
01:04:05Keshavarova, who you'll remember as the journalist who called this corrupt general a true hero of Russia,
01:04:10has also revealed that the precision of Ukraine's strike suggests that information about Milchakov's location was likely leaked by an
01:04:18insider.
01:04:20That changes everything.
01:04:22It shows us that there are still people inside the Russian military, as hard as it may be to believe,
01:04:27who want to help Ukraine get rid of the people who are attacking them.
01:04:31Or it could have been a career climber who sees a chance to rise up in the ranks now that
01:04:36a major general has just been killed.
01:04:38Either way, Milchakov is dead.
01:04:41Or as Russia appears to have put it, he has been dismissed.
01:04:46That's how UA.News reports it in a September 14th piece where it says that Russia has announced the possible
01:04:52dismissal of Milchakov.
01:04:54We all know what's going on here.
01:04:56Dismissal is code for our drug dealing corrupt general was just blown to pieces in Donetsk.
01:05:02And we're desperately trying to hide the fact that there are moles in our army who are telling Ukraine everything.
01:05:08So a top general is dead and a major Russian airfield is on fire.
01:05:13Not a great mid-September for Putin.
01:05:15And to make matters even worse, just a couple of days after a so-called hero of Russia was reported
01:05:21dead,
01:05:22another Russian general is confirmed to have bitten the dust inside Ukraine.
01:05:26On September 16th, the news broke that Major General Anton Grunis, who was the commander of Russia's 4th Separate Motorized
01:05:34Rifle Brigade
01:05:35and yet another supposed hero of Russia, has died, likely somewhere in the Donetsk or Luhansk Oblast.
01:05:42Grunis has a long history.
01:05:44According to Defense 24, his unit has taken part in some of the most important battles in eastern Ukraine,
01:05:49including the fights in Chaziv Yar, Bakhmut, and the current fighting in Konstantinivka.
01:05:55Keep that city in mind, by the way.
01:05:57This particular general has a special connection to Konstantinivka that makes his death all the sweeter for Ukraine.
01:06:03There was initially a lot of speculation about how Grunis died.
01:06:07One possibility is that he was located in Luhansk at the time of a Ukrainian strike in the Alchevsk area,
01:06:13which took place a couple of days before the general's death was announced.
01:06:17Defense 24 also said that there are reports of a different attack that focused on killing Grunis,
01:06:24though these reports had not been independently verified.
01:06:27We had to leave it to the ever bombastic commander of the Ukrainian Unmanned Systems Forces, Robert Brovdy,
01:06:35to reveal how it all went down.
01:06:36In a Facebook reel, Brovdy revealed that it was
01:06:40Birds of the SBS who took Grunis out of commission in a September 12 strike in the Donetsk region.
01:06:47Grunis was the 7th confirmed commander of the Level of Brigade Division Army stung by the Birds of the SBS,
01:06:54Brovdy added, suggesting that his drone units are getting better at locating and taking out some of Putin's most valuable
01:07:02operatives.
01:07:03And if Brovdy's declaration isn't enough evidence for you,
01:07:06Russian military bloggers are also reporting that Grunis has gone down somewhere in occupied Ukraine.
01:07:12That's according to the war-translated X-Account,
01:07:16which shares an obituary published by Russian media sources that mourns the tragic loss of our brother when talking about
01:07:24Grunis.
01:07:25Russia's tragedy is Ukraine's gain, and the elimination of Grunis has another little twist to it.
01:07:31We mentioned Konstantinivka earlier.
01:07:33You may remember that Russia falsely claimed to have captured that fortress belt city back in July.
01:07:38The lie was quickly revealed for what it was,
01:07:41with CNN even reporting that the claimed capture was really a sign of just how poorly Russia was doing on
01:07:47the ground.
01:07:48Commanders were being forced to lie to Putin to save their own skins,
01:07:52allowing the Russian leader to think that progress was being made,
01:07:56when the reality was that Russian forces were bogged down fighting for a city that hasn't even come close to
01:08:02falling yet.
01:08:03Now, would you like to guess which commander delivered the news of Konstantinivka's capture to Putin?
01:08:09It was none other than Grunis.
01:08:12On August 27th, Grunis had received his Hero of Russia medal for the supposed capture of this city, United 24
01:08:19media reports.
01:08:20About two weeks later, he was dead, having nothing but his own lies to come for him, as Ukraine's drones
01:08:27found and destroyed him.
01:08:29There's a nice little coda to Grunis' story.
01:08:32He was among many generals who are believed to be lying to Putin about Russia's plans, especially in the Donetsk
01:08:38region.
01:08:39According to Canal 13, Putin's generals have been lying to him for months about what was happening in Donetsk.
01:08:46And those lies have caught up to Russia.
01:08:49Since May, Ukraine has been running Operation Vivaldi, which is in the first of four stages and has been focused
01:08:56on reclaiming territory that Russia thought was safely occupied.
01:09:00That operation has had a massive effect in Liman, where Ukraine has managed to take back a huge amount of
01:09:06territory by inflicting a crushing defeat against a Russian salient that was developing in the area.
01:09:12All told, Ukraine has been able to liberate up to 250 square kilometers of territory so far, and we're only
01:09:20in the early stages of Operation Vivaldi.
01:09:23More will be coming.
01:09:25Grunis' lies, as well as those told by his fellow commanders, have come back to bite Putin hard.
01:09:31It's men like Grunis who have given the Kremlin a false impression of what's really happening in Ukraine, essentially laying
01:09:38the foundations for what Ukraine is doing now.
01:09:40After all, a properly informed Russian army could make decisions based on real information.
01:09:45But an army that is operating under the false impressions delivered to Putin by its generals can only make mistake
01:09:53after mistake.
01:09:54Well, Russia, you sure know how to pick your heroes.
01:09:58A corrupt drug peddler and a liar who inflated his victories to make himself look good.
01:10:03Both are now dead, and they add to an ever-growing tally of generals who have fallen in Ukraine and
01:10:10even inside Russia since Putin launched his invasion.
01:10:14Back in April, Mediazona reported that at least 15 of Russia's highest-ranking generals had been confirmed dead by that
01:10:22point.
01:10:23Across the entire Russian army, the deaths of 6,948 officers have been confirmed as of March 27th, and many
01:10:31more will have fallen since.
01:10:33We would say that this is Russia losing some of its most experienced and talented military personnel, which is having
01:10:40a clear impact on the front.
01:10:42But given what we've learned about the pair of heroes who have died in Donetsk, talented may not be the
01:10:49right word for them.
01:10:50Still, these are people who understood Russia's military better than most, and they're all gone.
01:10:55Beyond the two we've covered here, Russia has lost the likes of Sergei Goryachev, who was the chief of staff
01:11:02of Russia's 35th Combined Arms Army, which operates in Zaporizhia.
01:11:07Russia also lost its former deputy commander-in-chief of its navy, Mikhail Gudkov, to a Ukrainian strike against the
01:11:14headquarters of the 155th Naval Infantry Brigade that also claimed the lives of at least five other officers.
01:11:23Alexander Tatarenko, who was the commander of the Belbek Air Base in Crimea, has bitten the dust, as has Dmitry
01:11:30Mikhailov, who was the commander of Russia's 144th Motorized Rifle Division.
01:11:36This is just a sample.
01:11:37But what we're seeing here is the methodical dismantling of Russia's military command structure inside Ukraine.
01:11:44With each general who goes down, the Russian offensive becomes more disorganized, more chaotic.
01:11:51Opportunities open up for Ukraine where they may not have existed otherwise.
01:11:54Perhaps that's what we've seen in Liman, as the death of a lying general may have set the stage for
01:12:00Ukraine to take advantage of the Kremlin's false impression of the battlefield to stage a devastating counterattack.
01:12:06Mid-September has been a bad time to be Putin.
01:12:11Six aircraft hit, fires all over Rostov, a major oil refinery hit and two of his generals, two of his
01:12:18top generals in Donetsk confirmed dead.
01:12:21All within a matter of days.
01:12:22And then there's what's happening in Liman.
01:12:25We've touched on it, but we want you to learn more.
01:12:27We have a video explaining what has happened in Liman and how Ukraine was able to destroy a Russian salient
01:12:33that Putin's forces had spent months trying to develop.
01:12:36Watch that video next to discover more about what we now know as part of the first phase of Operation
01:12:42Vivaldi.
01:12:43But before you go, if you're enjoying our reporting, subscribe and share your thoughts below.
01:12:47And if you'd like to support the real people behind the channel, consider becoming a member for exclusive content.
01:12:53And thank you, as always, for watching.

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