00:00Welcome back. Let's continue analyzing this important date in Brazil where
00:05people, over 158 million people, are going to the polls to elect their
00:11president, vice president, and many other regional officials in the general elections
00:14taking place. And to analyze more this important election day, let's welcome our
00:19next special envoy, Cristiano Adario. He's a professor at the Federal
00:25Institute of Sao Paulo. Welcome, professor, from the south. Thank you for
00:29being here with us. Hello, hello. I'm glad to be here with you. Professor, my first
00:39question, we don't have a lot of time, but I think it's very important to address
00:42something that has been talked a little during throughout this week, which is the
00:46economic impact of the election in the current economic context. Can you
00:51explain to us how these general elections impacted the context of the economy?
01:00In a lot of forms, really, this election has a central economic and political
01:08questions. It means the Bolsonaro group, they have a very contradiction between the
01:16speech and the reality, because the central economic group in Brazil is the agro
01:23business. And the Bolsonaro group has a lot of confrontation against China and the
01:31against the biggest client of the agro, Brazilian agro. So this is a question. Even in the
01:39side of the supporters of the Bolsonaro, this is a really problem, because they have a
01:46political speech, but the base, the economic base for the agro in Brazil is really,
01:54really centralizing China, in the China consumption of the Brazilian agro production.
02:04What can we expect, what changes can we expect coming from after the electoral day, according
02:11to any possible results that may happen? What can we expect in the changes in the basic economic
02:18relationships within the country?
02:23Well, it depends on the results. It will be very different one another. If Lula wins,
02:31it will be the continue of the situation economically more stable and a balance between US and China.
02:40This is the data majority goal, the Lula government's goal, has more stability and a real balance between
02:51these two superpowers, China and US. If Bolsonaro wins, it will be very destabilizing, very, very, it will change a
03:03lot,
03:04because we don't know exactly what will become economically in this direction if Bolsonaro wins.
03:13But the central of this question, if Bolsonaro wins, is just what I said before.
03:23They say they are patriarchs, they say they are connected with the agro business, but the platform of this
03:31group, this group economically, real economically, is against the interests, the goal of the agro business in Brazil.
03:38It's contradictory, there's a lot of contradictory means about that, and will be very disruptive if Bolsonaro wins.
03:51So the surprise can come if the Bolsonaro camp group wins.
03:58Professor, how has the market behaved during these days and previous months, and especially integration in the region,
04:06in the aspect of the economy is also crucial for the benefit of all the peoples of the region,
04:12and how will also this be impacted according to the results of the context of these elections?
04:22Well, the market is being more confident with the stability, the government is more stable, as Lula showed.
04:33He's more stable. So there's a lot of rhetoric in market groups against the left side of the politics in
04:45Brazil,
04:45but in reality the Lula government is more stable for the markets and the profits.
04:52This is a great contradiction in the market speech.
04:57And for the integration in South America, I think it really, it's very, the government Lula has been historically
05:09very connected and very compromised with the international integration in Latin America and South America.
05:16But to have these American shields, this political confrontation in Latin America now, and this is the great question in
05:29this election.
05:29But if Bolsonaro wins, that is, again, that is a speech, a political speech about being side by side with
05:39the Malay governments, for example, in Argentina,
05:44but there is no real economic project to do so. The connection will be more rhetorical than economically.
05:53So this is the great paradox. If Lula wins, he will be more integrated in South America, economically South America
06:02than Bolsonaro.
06:04So this is the paradox of these two sides of the political camp in Brazil.
06:13Thank you very much, professor, for your time here with us in From the South.
06:20Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. It was a pleasure.
Comments