00:00Does a weak jobs report push gold up?
00:02The usual story goes like this.
00:05Gold has no earnings and no yield,
00:07so it tends to be priced against
00:09what else your money could be doing.
00:11A surprise in the jobs report changes
00:13what investors expect from policy.
00:16When those expectations move,
00:18that comparison can move with them.
00:20That can move yields and the dollar,
00:22and gold is priced against both.
00:25But every step in that chain is conditional.
00:28Watch what happened on October 2nd.
00:31Payrolls missed badly,
00:32and on the wire gold rose about 1%
00:35within minutes of the release.
00:36By the close, the largest gold ETF
00:39finished that same session down
00:41about three quarters of a percent.
00:43Same day, same report, two different windows,
00:47opposite signs.
00:48If one number decided gold, those two would agree.
