Skip to playerSkip to main content
Become a Member Today and Unlock EXCLUSIVE Videos: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCKfak8fBm_Lhy4eX9UKxEpA/join

In September 2026, Ukraine set a new record by destroying 76 Russian air defense systems in a single month, bringing total Russian air defense losses past 1,673 units. By systematically knocking out S-400 radars, Pantsir-S1, and Tor batteries in border regions like Bryansk, Ukrainian forces have opened persistent aerial corridors deep into Russian airspace. Struggling with microchip shortages and a fuel supply crisis, the Kremlin has resorted to threatening oligarchs with asset seizure if they fail to build their own private air defenses. Discover how Ukraine’s Unmanned Systems Forces and domestic ballistic missiles like the FP-7 Pelican are dismantling Moscow's integrated air defense umbrella.

⏱️ CHAPTERS:
00:00 - Systematic Attrition of Russia's Multi-Layered Air Defense Network
02:22 - Record Destruction in September: 76 Systems Destroyed & 1,673 Total Losses
03:46 - Creating Aerial Corridors: Operation Polyphemus & Crimean Air Control
05:25 - The Air Defense Catch-22: Refurbishment Lags & Regional Dilemmas
07:32 - Putin's Infrastructure Decree: Shifting Defense Costs onto Oligarchs
10:47 - Makeshift Corporate Defenses: Anti-Drone Nets, Avito Guards, & AI Software
12:35 - The Impending Ballistic Threat: FP-7 Pelican & FP-9 Deep-Strike Missiles
14:41 - Systemic Bottlenecks: Refinery Strikes, Fuel Crisis, & Microchip Sanctions

Support us directly as we bring you independent, up-to-date reporting on military news and global conflicts by clicking here: https://www.youtube.com/@TheMilitaryShow/join

#militarystrategy #militarydevelopments #militaryanalysis
#themilitaryshow

SOURCES: https://pastebin.com/1vRHSkrC

Category

🗞
News
Transcript
00:01For decades, Russia was building something that the Kremlin knew would be vital to the country.
00:06Air defenses, layers of them, guarding the most important assets and cities in Russia.
00:12Those defenses were supposed to stop incoming missiles in their tracks and take out any aerial assets that an enemy
00:18could send.
00:19But against Ukraine, those defenses are failing.
00:23Not only that, they're being wiped out en masse, creating a whole heap of other problems for Russia.
00:28Putin can never replace what Russia is losing.
00:31The situation just got worse after a record-breaking month where Ukraine went on the rampage.
00:37It was never supposed to be like this.
00:39Russia's rings of air defenses were supposed to be indomitable.
00:43Since the Cold War era, the Soviet Union and then Russia invested heavily in air defenses.
00:48The result was what was supposed to be some of the most advanced air defense systems in the world.
00:53The Pantsir S-1, which is a self-propelled anti-aircraft gun and missile system, was born from the dying
01:00embers of the Soviet Union and is supposed to provide close-range defense.
01:04The S series of air defenses, evolving from long-range Cold War interceptors like the S-200, the supposedly ultra
01:12-modern S-400 and S-500, was designed to counter aircraft as well as cruise and ballistic missile threats.
01:18Then there's the Tor and Buck systems. Both were created to defend point targets against all threats, supposedly making those
01:26targets impossible to strike.
01:28What we've seen from Moscow is decades spent building a multi-layered series of defenses.
01:33Russia has also tried to adapt as it faced a new series of threats emanating from Ukraine.
01:39When it became clear that missiles and aircraft weren't the main problems, Russia started creating new layers.
01:45Mobile units that could be deployed to strike aerial targets at different altitudes entered the fray.
01:51These units, positioned along the likely flight paths of incoming drones, were supposed to feed into the existing network of
01:57defenses by taking out most of the threats that Ukraine launched before they ever reached critical targets.
02:02None of it is working. And Ukraine is proving it by taking out the air defenses Russia installs with the
02:08very weapons those air defenses are supposed to stop.
02:12A record-breaking month just happened.
02:14But before we give you the context behind the record, we're the military show.
02:19And we go into depth on every development in the Ukraine war.
02:22Subscribe and tell us what you think in the comments below.
02:25And if you want even more from the channel, consider becoming a member for access to exclusive content.
02:30For all of Russia's efforts to maintain its air defenses, Ukraine seems to have the Kremlin's number.
02:36At least, that's what we can gather from a new analysis, which tells us that Ukraine has destroyed 76 of
02:42Russia's air defense systems in September.
02:44This report landed on September 26, too, meaning Ukraine had four more days at the time of reporting to build
02:51on that new record.
02:53Previously, Ukraine's best monthly total stood at 73, which it achieved in July 2023.
02:59Over three years later, that record has been shattered, showcasing Ukraine's systematic approach, taking out the one thing that Russia
03:07could never replace.
03:07Why can't the Kremlin simply put new air defenses in place?
03:11We'll be explaining that a little later.
03:13But for now, the analysis of Ukraine's record-breaking month comes from analyst Oleksandr Kovalenko, who took to Telegram to
03:21explain what he has seen.
03:22He talks of a systematic approach taken by Ukraine, as it works to dismantle the supposedly impenetrable rings of air
03:29defenses that Russia created over the decades.
03:32In total, during the full-scale invasion, Russia lost more than 1,673 units of various air defense systems, from
03:40radars to surface-to-air missile complexes.
03:43Such a quantity of equipment the Russian occupation forces will never be able to restore or replace, which means that
03:49it will not be possible to return to the pre-war level of sky coverage either technically or technologically, Kovalenko
03:55declares.
03:56The impact of this new record, and all that came before, is immeasurably bad for Russia.
04:02What Ukraine does when it destroys these air defense systems is create aerial corridors that can reliably use to get
04:08its drones and emerging stockpile of self-developed missiles into Russia.
04:12Each time an S-series anti-missile system or one of Russia's many close-range systems goes down, a corridor
04:19is created.
04:20We've seen the outcome of this strategy make itself known in 2026.
04:23For instance, July brought with it news of Operation Polyphemus, in which Ukraine's unmanned systems forces systematically destroyed Russian radar
04:32sites in the border region of Bryansk.
04:35The logic was simple. Take out the radars in the heavily defended border regions, and you create openings for drones
04:41and missiles to travel deeper into Russia's less well-defended regions.
04:45The first layer of the onion stripped away, if you will.
04:49Defense Express reports that spring and summer strikes Ukraine carried out against some of Russia's most valuable regions, including Moscow,
04:56St. Petersburg, and the Baltic port of Ustluga were made possible by the Bryansk strikes.
05:01We see something similar in the occupied territories.
05:05In Crimea, a campaign of isolation that Ukraine is using to starve occupiers of fuel and supplies has been made
05:11possible by the unmanned systems forces establishing aerial control over the land corridor that feeds the illegally annexed peninsula.
05:19Drone operators of the 3rd SOF Regiment have taken part of the invaders' land route to Crimea under aerial control.
05:26Drones of the Special Operations Forces unit are destroying equipment and disrupting enemy logistics routes along the Militopol-Chunhar corridor,
05:34Ukraine's 3rd Separate Special Purpose Regiment declared in a June Facebook post.
05:38Again, all made possible by the systematic destruction of air defenses that were supposed to guard Crimea.
05:44Russia can't replace these defenses, and that leaves the Kremlin in a Catch-22 situation.
05:50Michael Bonnett, who is a defense engineer and researcher at the RAND Corporation, spoke to Independence Avenue Media on July
05:5821st.
05:59He explains that Russia's inability to replenish its air defenses comes down to mistakes made earlier in the war.
06:05The Kremlin believed that Ukraine would never be capable of carrying out strikes deep inside Russia, leading to resources being
06:12diverted away from air defenses.
06:14Because Russia favored focusing on its strike assets and reviving its tanks and those parts of armored vehicles and artillery,
06:20it wasn't putting assets into refurbishing air defense, Bonnett says.
06:23The result in 2026, when those air defenses are needed more than ever before, is a lag in production.
06:30So they can start that process, but there's a two-, three-, six-month lag, and they're trying to implement this
06:35lag while they're having fuel shortages and logistics challenges, Bonnett continues.
06:40Hence the Catch-22.
06:41Russia can't keep pace with its air defense losses, forcing it into the difficult position of choosing whether to use
06:48the ever-depleting arsenal of defenses it has to either guard Russia or the occupied territories.
06:53It's a lose-lose situation.
06:55If Russia doesn't send air defenses into the occupied territories, you get situations like the one we're seeing in Crimea
07:02right now.
07:03But if those defenses head into Ukraine, key targets inside Russia, from military bases to oil refineries, become easier to
07:10hit.
07:11And all the while, Ukraine is whittling away at Russia's air defenses.
07:14Or in the case of September, it's absolutely devastating those defenses while breaking records.
07:20Russia is getting desperate, and it should be.
07:22A new threat from Ukraine is emerging, and the Kremlin is now trying to push the responsibility for defending core
07:28assets away from itself and onto the people who own those assets.
07:33But before we dig deeper, this is a reminder that you're watching the military show.
07:37If you're gaining insight from our channel, don't forget to subscribe and enable notifications to ensure that you never miss
07:43a video.
07:45The Kremlin knows that it can't replace the air defenses that it's losing.
07:49But that's okay.
07:50In August, Putin signed a new decree that he believes is going to solve the problem.
07:54The issue is that Russia's oligarchs and its smaller business owners likely don't agree.
08:00According to the Financial Times, the new decree gives the Kremlin the right to introduce temporary management of critical infrastructure
08:07objects
08:08if the owner of those objects fail to protect their assets against Ukrainian drones.
08:13In other words, the Kremlin just said, it's your problem now to dozens, maybe even hundreds of business owners.
08:19And to rub salt into that particular wound, the Kremlin has also said that any business owner who fails to
08:25invest heavily in developing their own air defenses risks having everything that they've built confiscated by the state.
08:32This isn't a power move. It's an admission by the Kremlin that Putin has broken the promise he made to
08:37the Russian people that they would never be affected by the so-called special military operation in Ukraine.
08:42Instead of doing something to solve the problem that Putin created, the Kremlin is doubling down and threatening the very
08:48people that Russia's actions have put at risk with state-sponsored asset seizures.
08:53A former Kremlin official has told the Financial Times how this new decree came about.
08:58They complained that businesses were sitting on their hands and don't want to lift a finger and Putin agreed, the
09:04former official said, referencing Russia's intelligence and military services.
09:08The message is, guys, get your act together and start spending.
09:12Yeah, guys, get your act together to solve a problem that would never have existed if Putin didn't launch an
09:17invasion.
09:18Business owners across Russia are panicking as they've been put in charge of their own air defenses, leading to a
09:24five-fold increase in inquiries about what the hell they're supposed to do.
09:28Putin sees that as a win. He shouldn't. It's a sign of how badly the Kremlin's air defenses are doing
09:34at protecting their country.
09:36Worse yet, these business owners know that Putin is serious. Asset confiscations to support the Ukraine invasion are nothing new
09:43in Russia.
09:43We saw just that happen a couple of months before Putin signed his decree.
09:48In June, Russia seized about $7.4 billion in assets from a man named Vadim Moshkovic, who is the founder
09:55of one of Russia's largest agricultural companies, Rosagro.
09:59Moshkovic was arrested in March 2025 on charges of fraud, bribery and money laundering.
10:05So, standard Russian business practices that are encouraged by Putin.
10:08Now, Moshkovic's assets have been seized and transferred to the state, which will inevitably use those assets to fund the
10:15Ukraine invasion.
10:16Let's call Putin's decree what it really is.
10:18Another step toward Putin forcing Russia's oligarchs to pay for his war as costs spiral out of control.
10:24Not that Putin will tell you that. He has offered fake assurances about a decree that could only ever be
10:30seen as a means through which the Kremlin can more easily carry out state seizures.
10:34The Financial Times says that Putin apparently never even considered taking anything away with his decree that has been designed
10:41specifically to make it easier for the Kremlin to take things away.
10:45The oligarchs are paying attention.
10:47They've long twigged onto the fact that Putin is going to use any means, fair or foul, to get his
10:53hands on their money.
10:54That's why they're moving their money out.
10:56According to Bloomberg, the past year has seen several Russian oligarchs, including some who are close to Putin, move billions
11:02of dollars out of Russia to keep the Kremlin from getting its grubby mitts on the cash.
11:07The odds are we're going to see even more billions exit stage left in the coming months.
11:13Coming back to the supposed point of Putin's decree, which is to make Russian businesses pay for their own air
11:18defenses, you have to wonder what those companies are supposed to actually do.
11:22After all, it's not like they can go out and buy their own S-400s and tour air defense systems.
11:27If that was a possibility, it would mean Russia is making enough of these systems to sell them to private
11:32owners, and so the air defense issues Ukraine is creating wouldn't exist.
11:36No, the solutions that business owners are coming up with are a little more makeshift.
11:42For a start, it's not exactly easy for a business to get air defenses that might actually work.
11:47The Financial Times points out that many anti-drone defenses require permits before they can be erected, and those permits
11:54aren't easy to get.
11:55The best that businesses seem to be able to do without these permits is to install anti-drone netting on
12:01their most valuable assets.
12:02Other solutions involve building reinforced concrete structures used to shield those assets from initial strikes.
12:09The Wall Street Journal adds that some companies have resorted to heading to Avito, which is Russia's version of Craigslist,
12:15to hunt for guards.
12:17Those guards are being tasked with scanning the skies, spotting drones, and somehow shooting them down.
12:22Other companies are taking advantage of the decree.
12:25Kaspersky, which is a Russian cybersecurity firm, now offers an anti-drone package that it claims uses artificial intelligence to
12:33detect and classify drones.
12:35The system can even send instructions to the appropriate air defense system to shoot down the incoming threat, if the
12:41business has such a system.
12:43Which most won't.
12:44Ever the opportunist, Putin has found a way to offload the responsibility he should have for putting Russia's businesses in
12:49the firing line.
12:50But as Russia's air defenses continue to crumble, the makeshift defenses companies are putting up to avoid state seizure aren't
12:57going to help them.
12:59Soon, it won't be the drones that these companies and Russia face.
13:02It will be ballistic missiles.
13:04Back in August, Defense News reported that we were just weeks away from the first combat use of a new
13:09Ukrainian ballistic missile, the FP7.
13:12Made by Firepoint, which also manufactures the famous Flamingo drone, the FP7 was initially scheduled to be combat ready no
13:19earlier than the end of 2026.
13:21But by August, the FP7 was undergoing final tests to receive certification and head into combat trials.
13:28And on September 21st, the news broke that the missile was likely used in Ukraine's largest attack yet against the
13:35Russian capital of Moscow.
13:36At least, that was hinted at by Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky, who listed the Pelican, which is another name for
13:43the FP7, in a list of weapons Ukraine used during its attack on Moscow.
13:47Ballistic missiles are already heading into Russia. Most of the country is nowhere near ready for them.
13:53There's a certain level of irony here, as the air defenses Ukraine is destroying with drones, such as the 76
13:58taken out in September, are better suited to dealing with ballistic missiles.
14:02That's what they were designed to do, after all.
14:04However, Russia's air defense shortages mean that most of the best systems are installed in and around Moscow, rather than
14:10elsewhere in the country.
14:11And think about the companies. Their anti-drone nets and concrete structures aren't going to do much against the speed
14:18and firepower that a ballistic missile delivers.
14:21Moscow may be somewhat safe from Ukraine's ballistic missile threat, at least for now.
14:26But the rest of Russia has very little in place to do anything about the new generation of weapons that
14:31Ukraine is bringing to the table.
14:33By the way, the FP7 is likely to be joined by the more powerful and longer-range FP9 at some
14:38point in 2027, if not before.
14:40Firepoint suggests that the FP9 could be ready as early as November, bringing an 850km range and enough power to
14:49destroy entire facilities to Ukraine's arsenal.
14:52There's one big question we've yet to answer.
14:54How on earth did Russia's air defenses end up failing so badly that Ukraine was able to break records in
15:00September and seems capable of striking Russia almost at will?
15:04There are several problems that Russia faces, starting with Ukraine's strikes against Russian oil refining.
15:10Now, we often see these strikes as an outcome of the failure of Russia's air defenses rather than a reason
15:15for their failure.
15:16However, one feeds into the other, as Russia's inability to create enough fuel wreaks havoc on the supply chain that
15:22would allow it to build more air defenses.
15:24Bonnert explains, stating,
15:27Even if only 3% of that whole chain doesn't get the fuel, well, that still means nothing gets completed.
15:32The Rand engineer notes 30% of refining capacity taken out is the point where Russia's air defense supply chain
15:38really starts to struggle.
15:39By September 21st, 45% of Russia's total refining capacity was offline, per the Ukrainian military.
15:47And the refinery strikes aren't stopping anytime soon.
15:50At the end of the day, there's the old adage.
15:52An army fights on its stomach.
15:54Well, the modern war stomach is fuel.
15:56And so looking back to World War II, whether it was in the Pacific or in Europe,
16:00all of those mechanized forces still relied on fuel supplies.
16:04Bonnert adds.
16:05That applies as much to logistics inside Russia as it does to the occupied territories.
16:10Even if Russia is able to get its hands on the components and chips needed to build new air defense
16:14systems,
16:15getting them from where they are to where they need to be is a major issue when a fuel crisis
16:19is ravaging the entire country.
16:22Russia is trying to adapt to the issue that it faces with Ukraine's drones and emerging ballistic missile.
16:27Over the next couple of months, Russia does have some of what are called over-the-horizon radars,
16:32which help them see far away, Bonnert says.
16:34Those radars aren't high quality, and there's a reason for that.
16:38We'll explain in a moment.
16:39Russia is also using helicopters to lift air defense vehicles above buildings,
16:43allowing them to see farther away, the RAND engineers.
16:46And according to Euromiden Press, Russia is also deploying its A-50 radar planes to catch Ukrainian cruise missiles as
16:53they fly.
16:54That's a dangerous move.
16:55A-50s, like most of Russia's air defenses, can't be replaced because of supply chain issues and a lack of
17:01focus being placed on military aviation manufacturing in Russia.
17:05Sanctions have also led to Russia being unable to get the components it needs to build more A-50s, the
17:10Jerusalem Post reports.
17:11That leads us nicely back to the radars we mentioned.
17:15These, along with air defense systems and the missiles they fire, are facing the exact same bottleneck.
17:20These are all complex pieces of equipment that require modern chips to build.
17:25Guess what sanctions prevent Russia from purchasing easily?
17:28Chips are in short supply in Russia, meaning even if it has everything else it needs to replace its shattered
17:34air defenses, it still can't build more.
17:36A soldier who goes by the callsign Charger highlighted this problem back in June,
17:41when talking about how he and his comrades in Ukraine's 413th Unmanned Systems Regiment are isolating Crimea by taking out
17:49its air defenses.
17:50Because it's a scarce resource, it's very expensive, and even if they just throw a sack of dollars at the
17:56manufacturer, air defenses won't just materialize because there's no microchip.
18:00There is no device where you feed it money and it gives you a microchip that controls an anti-aircraft
18:05missile, Charger declared.
18:07He's right, and that leaves Russia up a particularly smelly creek without a paddle.
18:12Ukraine's record-breaking month of air defense destruction is so painful for the Kremlin because it knows that Russia can't
18:18replace those defenses.
18:20At least not anywhere near quickly enough to make up for the losses before dozens more systems have been taken
18:25offline.
18:26Putin can try to shift the burden of defense onto businesses, and even use decrees to backdoor his way into
18:32seizing private assets for the Russian state.
18:34But even that won't work. A seized business needs to be protected by the Kremlin.
18:39That just leaves Russia right back where it's been placed by Ukraine.
18:42As for Ukraine, it will just keep on doing what it's doing.
18:45More Russian air defenses will be destroyed each month.
18:48That will lead to more aerial corridors being carved out, which feeds into the strikes that are causing so much
18:53chaos in Russia.
18:54The Kremlin has no real answers.
18:57And if Putin wants a window into what's coming for Russia, he needs only take a closer look at the
19:01massive strike on Moscow that we mentioned.
19:03He and you can get a closer look by watching our video, where we dive into what that strike achieved
19:09and what it means for Russia.
19:11But before you watch that video, everything you see here is researched, verified and produced by real people.
19:17If you value that, subscribe, comment below and consider becoming a member for access to exclusive content.
19:23And thank you, as always, for watching.
Comments

Recommended