- há 2 dias
Faço uma analise dos histórico da pesquisas recentes para candidatos ao governo e ao senado de todos os estados do Brasil, aqui falo de São Paulo, Minas Gerais, Rio de Janeiro, Bahia, Paraná, Rio Grande do Sul, Pernambuco, Ceará, Pará, Santa Catarina, Maranhão e Goiás e seus impactos nas eleições presidenciais.
00:00 - Introdução
01:12 - Projeções Presidenciais e o Dilema de Segundo Turno
02:37 - Metodologia, Vieses, e Erros das Pesquisas Eleitorais
05:30 - Mapeamento das Coligações e Histórico Politico
09:54 - Espírito Santo
13:13 - Paraíba
16:10 - Amazonas
19:09 - Piauí
20:39 - Rio Grande do Norte
23:39 - Mato Grosso
24:47 - Alagoas
27:32 - Distrito Federal
29:36 - Mato Grosso do Sul
31:09 - Sergipe
34:50 - Rondônia
36:13 - Tocantins
38:16 - Acre
42:28 - Amapá
44:20 - Roraima
00:00 - Introdução
01:12 - Projeções Presidenciais e o Dilema de Segundo Turno
02:37 - Metodologia, Vieses, e Erros das Pesquisas Eleitorais
05:30 - Mapeamento das Coligações e Histórico Politico
09:54 - Espírito Santo
13:13 - Paraíba
16:10 - Amazonas
19:09 - Piauí
20:39 - Rio Grande do Norte
23:39 - Mato Grosso
24:47 - Alagoas
27:32 - Distrito Federal
29:36 - Mato Grosso do Sul
31:09 - Sergipe
34:50 - Rondônia
36:13 - Tocantins
38:16 - Acre
42:28 - Amapá
44:20 - Roraima
Categoria
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NotíciasTranscrição
00:00Hi, you're on the Palada na Cara channel, my name is Marcos, and I'm going to present the second video to you.
00:05Regarding the special on elections, there will be a third one, the third one will be more of a joke that I'm going to do with
00:10You, who will be the 54 senators that I believe will be elected, but this video will only be released on
00:15It will be on the Friday or Saturday before the election that I'll get the latest election polls.
00:19And here's a suggestion for you guys to have some fun with your friends, make a betting pool, make a betting pool, just like me.
00:24I'll use a football game as an example: who will be elected in your state, and how many senators will be from the left and the right?
00:30The right wing will do something simple, because the PT needs it. In the previous video I said I used 27, no,
00:35It takes 28 votes to protect the president from impeachment, while the opposition needs 54 to confirm the impeachment.
00:41According to the Poder 360 website, the opposition is expected to win a majority with 43 votes, while the ruling party, which is Lula's group, is expected to win.
00:49However, they are only using AQUAEST as a data source here; they are not using other institutes.
00:57except when AQUAEST has not conducted the survey in a particular state.
01:01And that's where things get interesting, because when you create a set, not an aggregate, a set of analyses
01:08Based on what is being predicted, you have a slightly different design.
01:12For example, the Voga Iris project is run by a federal university here in Brazil.
01:17Then you register here on the site, which is a predictive model; it analyzes election polls already.
01:23Released to indicate what the trend is.
01:25In the case of the presidency, the right wing is clearly favoring the right, with Lula having a 31% chance and Flávio...
01:3169%.
01:32And here, notice something, they're making a projection for the first round.
01:36Here, it's pretty much what the research is saying.
01:38Lula in first place, Flávio in second, within the margin of error.
01:40And the turning point occurs in the second round, because Augusto Cury, Renan Santos, Ronaldo Caiado, and Zema are all candidates who are more likely to...
01:48right.
01:48So, most voters will lean towards them.
01:51So, in the second round, the trend is for Flávio to win according to most polling institutes.
01:56But, and this is something I've said more than once, Flávio has to convince these people.
02:00to go and vote for him.
02:01Lula only needs to convince his own voters.
02:03Because the radical leftists, the people who voted for candidates from the PCO, PSTU, UPI...
02:10Those few people, each with their own insignificance, are going to vote for Lula.
02:14Combined, they will account for 2% of the votes.
02:16In other words, Lula's approval rating will rise from 44.7% to 46.7%, then 47%.
02:21In other words, Flávio needs to find at least 6 percentage points of valid votes for himself, coming from...
02:28of the other candidates.
02:29And let's hope that very few of them vote for Lula.
02:32Did you understand Flavio's dilemma?
02:37After you register, it opens the weighted average chart that it considers.
02:43That's where the mistake and the bias lie.
02:45Positive bias means research that leans to the left.
02:50Negative bias refers to research that leans to the right.
02:53The best you can see is that most institutions lean to the left.
02:57Oh, that's a lot.
02:58No, it's not much.
02:59But in a very close election, those kinds of situations arise.
03:01Ah, it indicated that by jumping he would win a seat as senator.
03:07Then he asks to see that it was within the margin of error.
03:09Why?
03:09Because the polls were indicating a winner due to the bias.
03:14The real winner would be the other one.
03:15That's a rule.
03:17And it's difficult for an institute to get it completely right.
03:20For example, let's take Intel Atlas here.
03:22Atlas Intel is extremely left-leaning.
03:24His bias is 3.6, with a rule of thumb of 2.03 percentage points.
03:29Bras Market is very far to the right.
03:321.71
03:33And so it goes.
03:34One thing I always say.
03:36The Datafolha poll has a margin of error of 1.67 percentage points.
03:39Because at the very end they adjust their model.
03:43Leonardo Dias does a job where he uses materials from Datafolha.
03:47and recalculates using updated data from the IBGE (Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics).
03:52In other words, a profile will look slightly different from the sample.
03:55And he gets closer.
03:57And like him, other statisticians do this type of work.
04:00Because they sell their statistical analysis services.
04:03So, in recent years, Datafolha has taken care to correct its methodology.
04:09Apply this methodological correction when dealing with the electoral process.
04:13That's why it shows 0.42 to the left here.
04:17But first, if you catch it earlier, the deviation is much greater than that.
04:21And there are surveys that don't correct anything.
04:23Leave the mistake from beginning to end.
04:24Either because they can't fix it, or because they have no intention of fixing it.
04:28And there's that side to it too.
04:29For example, the Paraná Research Institute.
04:32Which I like very much.
04:33It has an error of 1.96 percentage points.
04:36But at the Institute, which I know is further to the right.
04:38Minus 1.72.
04:41And I like to pit him against the Power Data and the Quest.
04:45Ah, why?
04:46Because two are...
04:49And Real Time Big Data too.
04:51Because these three, they lean slightly to the left.
04:55The Paraná Research Institute leans reasonably to the right.
05:00And then, considering the four of us who do a lot of research, I think we're on the right track.
05:04That they are more consistent in their results throughout the historical series.
05:08In other words, variation occurs.
05:11Because their methodology causes this.
05:13And they deliberately choose not to correct it.
05:15And I'm going to pull a prank closer to next weekend.
05:19To be precise, based on the research that I'm going to review with you.
05:24Who will be elected state by state?
05:25And in the end, make a bet on how many senators each political group will get.
05:29And to find out who the candidates are in each group.
05:32In Lula's case, I'm on the PT's own website.
05:36Because they have the team here, the nominations from each state.
05:39In the case of the one on the right, I did it a little differently.
05:42Because on the right you have, let's say, a mothership.
05:46What is PL and what is Flávio Bolsonaro?
05:48But when you look at it case by case, there are places where the right-wing's favorite candidate isn't one of them.
05:55PL candidate.
05:56He is a candidate from the New Party.
05:58Like the case of Deltan Dallagnol, over there in Paraná.
06:00And then I got this YouTuber here, Peter, Peter Turguniev.
06:05He made a website with only the directions from the right.
06:09He picked the most right-wing candidates from each state.
06:12And he rode it across the Brazilian state.
06:14So I'll use this as a guide.
06:16I know that when it's PL, it's PL, it's Bolsonaro.
06:19When it's Republicans too.
06:20And when it's the New Year too.
06:22However, the three parties are not present in all Brazilian states.
06:25There are states where they are not present.
06:26I think only the MDB is present in all states of the country.
06:30That's something we'll have to check later.
06:31Then I'll compare those lists later.
06:33Now I'm going to talk about the 15 smallest states in Brazil in terms of voting population.
06:40Because in the previous video I talked about the 12 largest states in terms of population.
06:45Not in terms of territory.
06:46Not in terms of cultural importance or anything.
06:49No.
06:49I'm talking about the voting population.
06:51And now I'm going to get the 15 youngest ones.
06:54Ah, but why are they going to do that?
06:56Okay, I'll repeat myself.
06:58I asked Gemini to rank the states for me by number of voters.
07:04For me, the 12th largest electoral college is Goiás.
07:08With 5 million and just over 120 thousand voters.
07:11The 13th month salary is sometimes appearing as Espírito Santo, sometimes as Paraíba.
07:16Espírito Santo: 2,928,000.
07:18Here's the last one.
07:19And Paraíba has 3 million and 225 thousand.
07:21Notice that in one case there are almost 2 million different voters, a difference.
07:27The other one shows a difference of just over 2 million and 100 compared to Goiás.
07:31In other words, it's a very big difference.
07:33So I decided to divide it this way, to establish the border here.
07:36List the 12 largest states by number of voters.
07:39And the other 15.
07:41Everyone has the same weight in the Senate.
07:44Everyone will elect two senators.
07:45Everyone will elect a governor.
07:47But the weight given to the election, to the president, changes.
07:50And I'll also talk about swing states.
07:52I mentioned two in the last video.
07:54Now I'm going to talk about the others.
07:56How are you going to talk about pendulum states?
07:58These are states that sometimes vote with the right and sometimes vote with the left.
08:02I'll tell you right now.
08:03In 2018, Tocantins voted more for Bolsonaro.
08:07In 2022, he voted more with Lula.
08:10Did you understand?
08:10So there are states that do this pendulum swing.
08:12Lula is so level-headed that any slip-up will leave you behind against your opponent.
08:17in this dispute between left and right.
08:19This is the real mess that Brazil has become in the last 15 years.
08:25Oh, no.
08:25It didn't start with Bolsonaro.
08:26Bolsonaro was the first to successfully concentrate those votes.
08:30But this right wing already existed.
08:32Oh, what do you mean by that?
08:34Just remember the protests of 2013 and 2014.
08:38Those protests about the 22 cents.
08:40Ah, out of 20 cents, 22 cents.
08:42It had a lot of writing on it.
08:45Olavo is right.
08:46Olavo de Carvalho is a right-wing thinker.
08:49People on the left don't like it because the left likes people who have degrees to show off.
08:53Given that, when we study philosophy, thousands of years of philosophy have already been produced.
08:59without universities.
09:00You don't need a university degree to get a degree in philosophy.
09:03Did you understand?
09:03Or to be considered a philosopher.
09:05You need to be a good thinker, a good architect of ideas in the sense of connecting ideas.
09:11And Olavo de Carvalho did that.
09:14Point.
09:14Ah, I don't agree with what he thinks.
09:16No problem.
09:17The fact that he organizes his ideas is a merit.
09:19And he frequented a tavern.
09:22Tarica is a Muslim theological school.
09:25And in this case, the tarica he attended was more focused on the study of philosophy.
09:31Oh, he's Muslim?
09:32No, he is not Muslim.
09:32At least he didn't say he was Muslim, right?
09:35But he studied at a top-tier Muslim school.
09:37Here in Brazil.
09:39I think it was even connected to the large mosque in São Paulo, here in Braz.
09:42He didn't receive his diploma only because he was studying there; his advisor passed away.
09:47Just before he was finished, he gave up until the end.
09:50I think he's also going through a depressive episode.
09:52And soon after, he moved to the United States.
09:54Okay, enough talk, let's get to the analysis.
09:57The first state I'm going to talk about is Espírito Santo, which has approximately 2,928,000 voters.
10:06The total is not confirmed.
10:08It was Gêmeni who gave me the information.
10:09When Gêmeni gave me the information, I think he was still updating the TRE website.
10:14Here, in the first round, we must go...
10:17We should go, shouldn't we?
10:19We must see Ricardo Ferraço and Lourenço Pasolini go to the second round.
10:25The two are polling between 30% and 40% in all surveys.
10:30And Hélder Salomão, from the PT party, he withered away.
10:33It doesn't even reach 20 percentage points.
10:35The last time he reached 20 percentage points was at the Veritá Institute, between September 12 and 15.
10:41He had 25.1, which I would put in a technical position along with Ricardo Ferraço, from MDB, at 28.4.
10:47And well behind Lorenzo Pasolini.
10:49Then, looking at the polls, Ricardo Ferraço scored 38.3, Lourenço Pasolini 40, and Hélder Salomão 9.
10:56Real-time Big Data, 44 for Ricardo Ferraço, 35 for Lourenço Pasolini, 14 for Hélder Salomão.
11:03In the Quest category, Ricardo Ferraço scored 33 points, Lourenço Pasolini 31, and Hélder Salomão 12.
11:09And the Espírito Santo profile today, 36.94% for Ricardo Ferraço, 33.94% for Lourenço Pasolini and 8.11
11:19for Hélder Salomão.
11:20All these institutions here have more money, by between 2 and 3 percentage points.
11:24I'll speak a little faster now, so that the profiles of each state don't get too long.
11:31Then, the video description will show the minute each state begins.
11:36In other words, the PT candidate, Hélder Salomão, will not make it to the second round.
11:42And the right-wing candidate, according to Peter Turguniev, is the Lorenzo Pasolini of the Republicans.
11:49In other words, the Bolsonaro candidate, in quotation marks, would be Lorenzo Pasolini.
11:54The Republicanos party is, in fact, more right-wing than the average Brazilian party.
11:56It's not quite as far to the right as the PL, much less to the right than the Novo, but a
12:01The party furthest to the right, the most solid in that sense.
12:05The governor has an interesting situation here.
12:08Renato Casagrande, from the PSB party, and Geraldo Alckmin, Vice President of the Republic,
12:13He has been doing well in all research institutes since the end of August.
12:18So, most likely, he will be elected.
12:19But when we look at Fabiano Contarato, from the PT, Sérgio Menegheli, from the PSD, Maguinha Malta, from the PL, Evair de
12:27Melo, from the Republicans,
12:29You notice that in most of the September polls, when they appear, they appear within the margin of error with Fabio.
12:37Contarato and Sérgio Menegheli.
12:39In other words, there's a tie here.
12:42There, Rosa de Freitas.
12:42Rosa de Freitas's opinions fluctuate greatly depending on the research institutes.
12:46So, it's impossible to say.
12:47But I wouldn't be surprised if she showed up too.
12:50In other words, Renato Casagrande is likely to win the Senate.
12:54For now, it is completely unknown which of the other four or five relevant candidates for the Senate from Espírito Santo will win.
13:01In other words, the PT could win two seats here, both the PT and the PSB.
13:05Or you might see a chair in the hands of the center or the right wing.
13:11Let's move on to the second state in this sequence, Paraíba.
13:14Here, Paraíba has 3,225,318 registered voters.
13:18A little more than the Holy Spirit.
13:20But Gemini updated that sequence for me, and he's behind the Holy Spirit.
13:25So, I left it like that.
13:26We have an interesting situation.
13:28Lucas Ribeiro, from the PP party, has been a clear favorite to win the elections since the end of August.
13:34In the Quest survey, conducted between September 18 and 21, and the Nova survey, conducted between September 20 and 22
13:41In September, he appears with 49% and 48% of voting intentions.
13:46But that's more than the combined total of his competitors' voting intentions.
13:50And it's no longer a difference of 2 or 3%.
13:54For example, in Anova, the second and third place candidates, Cícero, Lucena, and Efraim Filho, from the PL party, have...
14:02Together they represent 42.7% of voting intentions.
14:05While Lucas Ribeiro has 48%.
14:07That's almost a 6 percentage point difference.
14:10Given that the margin of error is 2.2.
14:12For better or for worse.
14:14In other words, the margin of error would be 4.4.
14:16In the Quest system, the margin of error is 3 percentage points.
14:18And Lucas Ribeiro showed up with 48.
14:20He's 49.
14:21But Cicero, Lucena, and Efraim Filho, combined, have 31.
14:26And the smaller parties, in general, account for 1, 2, or 3 percentage points in most polls.
14:31This indicates that Lucas Ribeiro will most likely be elected in the first round.
14:36Unless the institutes were off by a very large margin.
14:40In Paraíba, the PT candidate is Lucas Ribeiro, from the PP party.
14:46In other words, an ally of Lula.
14:48But, again, one should not entrust the protection of an impeachment to the Centrão.
14:55Collor fell, Dilma fell because she trusted that the senators from the Centrão (center-right bloc) would protect them.
15:00And at the last minute, they fell because of public opinion.
15:03Hey Lucas Ribeiro, he's the governor.
15:05He will put pressure on his bench because he has future dreams.
15:10Of political permanence, of preservation.
15:12So, he's going to force his bench to follow a certain path.
15:15For better or for worse.
15:17And as far as the Senate is concerned, things are relatively settled.
15:20João Azevedo should take one of the spots.
15:23He belongs to the PSB party.
15:24He is a candidate from the government's base.
15:28He belongs to the same party as Geraldo Alckmin, the Vice President of the Republic.
15:32But you shouldn't trust them.
15:33Dilma trusted Michel Temer's MDB party and was stabbed in the back.
15:37She was betrayed.
15:38And the Venetian from the MDB.
15:40In this case, they are Lula's candidates.
15:43João Azevedo and Venetian Vital.
15:45From the right, the most right-wing candidates would be...
15:47Doctor Marcelo Quiroga and Major Fábio, PL and Novo.
15:52Marcelo Quiroga does not appear to be a competitive candidate in recent polls.
15:57Major Fábio, merely figurative.
16:00And it seems that not even Nabor Vanderlei, from the Republicanos party, has a chance of entering this fight.
16:05If nothing unusual happens in this last week,
16:08They should both be chosen.
16:10Now, let's go to the Amazon.
16:12The state of Amazonas has an interesting characteristic.
16:18Despite being a historically divided state,
16:22It leans more to the left.
16:25But in 2018, he voted to elect Jair Bolsonaro.
16:29And in 2022, he voted to elect Lula.
16:31In other words, doing well in this state can make all the difference.
16:33Oh, you're going to talk about presidential polls for that state?
16:35No, I'm not going.
16:35And here we have the following situation.
16:37Omar Aziz, a politician who is extremely entangled in scandals,
16:40He faces all sorts of accusations.
16:43It's in the hands of the Supreme Court justices.
16:47So much so that in the Covid CPI,
16:50He was appointed by the Supreme Federal Court as president of the commission.
16:54Because she was a person who could be controlled.
16:56At various times, those who know him,
16:58He said he was even embarrassed by the way things were being handled.
17:02Because he was in a state that had voted more for Bolsonaro.
17:07So, he didn't want to get burned there.
17:08And this had repercussions with his allies later on.
17:12He should go to the second round.
17:14It's hovering around 30% of voting intentions.
17:17The fight for the second spot is interesting.
17:20Roberto Cidade, from União, and Maria do Carmo, from PL,
17:23It has consistently hovered between 20% and 25% of voting intentions.
17:28in the institutes Veritar, Coaeste, Poder Data, Projeta, Phoenix, Pontual, Viva Voz.
17:37This has been the case since the beginning of September.
17:38And we also have David Almeida,
17:40which always has more than 10 percentage points of voting intention.
17:44So, we can say that Omar Aziz will go to the second round.
17:48But we can't say who will be going with him.
17:51In the case of the PT in Amazonas, the candidate is Omar Aziz, from the PSD.
17:56Remember, I've said more than once that the PSD has a faction that votes against Lula.
18:02And in the case of the PL party, for governor in Amazonas,
18:07It would be Professor Maria do Carmo, who doesn't even appear here.
18:10He doesn't even show up there to run for governor, right?
18:13It would be Maria do Carmo, who is the other force, right?
18:15If Maria do Carmo and Omar Aziz stay together,
18:17then we'll see the PT's struggle, through the PSD,
18:21and PL for the governor's seat.
18:24And for senator, it seems that's more or less decided.
18:27between Eduardo Braga, from the MDB party, and Captain Alberto Neto, from the PL party.
18:31Because they consistently appear in first and second place.
18:35Wilson Lima, from União, in the research by the Projeta Institute,
18:40who interviewed 3,000 people,
18:42in a survey with a margin of error of 1.79%,
18:45He appears with 16.77% compared to 16.17% for Captain Alberto Neto.
18:53It's the only institute that conducted research in September that yielded this type of result.
18:58Ah, what do you think will happen?
18:59I think first and second place are already decided here.
19:02You will see that, as the state's population decreases,
19:05The winners of the Senate race are becoming clearer.
19:09Now let's go to Piauí.
19:11Look, Piauí is one of the most left-leaning states in Brazil.
19:14And he has 2,708,160 voters.
19:18Rafael Fonteles, from the PT party, is leading in all electoral polls.
19:21since the beginning of September,
19:24He is leading with over 55% of the voting intentions.
19:27which is double, sometimes even triple, the voting intention.
19:30by Joel Rodrigues of the PP,
19:32which generally ends up with 20-25% of the voting intentions.
19:36And the dwarfs barely number more than 10.
19:39In other words, it's already pretty much settled here.
19:42That the PT (Workers' Party) will elect the governor in Piauí.
19:45But the Senate, look how interesting,
19:47the candidates for the Senate,
19:50supported by the PT,
19:51from Piauí,
19:52They are Marcelo Castro, from the MDB party,
19:54and Julius Caesar, from the PSD.
19:57Peter, on the other hand, he identifies as being
20:00Tiago Junqueira, from the PL party,
20:02and Antônio Barros, from Novo.
20:05Here, most likely,
20:06The PT will manage to elect its ally.
20:09Marcelo Castro,
20:11and Júlio César, from the PSD,
20:14remains very competitive
20:15in front of Ciro Nogueira, from the PP party.
20:18This is the most centrist wing of the PP.
20:20And Tiago Junqueira, from the PL,
20:22It's simply not competitive.
20:24And the others, where is the candidate from the New Party?
20:27It's the others, right?
20:29They are merely figurative.
20:31So here, the PT can elect two allied senators.
20:34from the center,
20:35which can be dangerous.
20:39Now we're going to Rio Grande do Norte,
20:42with 2,660,565 voters.
20:46Alisson, from União,
20:48He's at his limit.
20:50to win the election in the first round.
20:52All the institutions give him [the job],
20:54since September 21st,
20:5839 percentage points of voting intention.
21:00But when you add it all up
21:01the second and third place winners,
21:03they are always in the sum
21:05within the margin of error.
21:07And the smaller companies make up no more than 2%.
21:09For example, the Seta Institute,
21:11who conducted a survey between September 21st and 24th,
21:14with a sample
21:16that people have a margin of error
21:17It is 2.5 percentage points.
21:19Alisson, from União, has 40.5.
21:21But when you add it all up
21:23Álvaro Dias, from the PL party,
21:24and Cadu, from Lula, from the PT,
21:27They have 43.7.
21:30Their sum
21:31That's within the margin of error.
21:33at the Coeste Institute.
21:36Alisson is 39.
21:37Álvaro Dias is 18.
21:38Cadu, Lula's son, is 21.
21:40But you add Álvaro Dias and Cadu,
21:42That's 39 too.
21:43Do you understand?
21:44Alisson is very much on the edge.
21:46to win in the first round.
21:47If he doesn't lose votes
21:50for one of the other candidates,
21:51We will have a second round.
21:53Oh, and who's going to the second round?
21:55It indicates here that
21:57Cadu, from the PT,
22:00as being the most likely.
22:03Can Álvaro Dias go?
22:05He can,
22:05because they are
22:07always numerically very close.
22:09And most of the research
22:11They tend to lean slightly more to the left.
22:13But it will be
22:14a passage
22:15for the second round
22:16decided
22:18by a small margin.
22:20Whether or not it will happen
22:21the second round
22:22and few votes
22:23and an even smaller difference
22:24between those who will
22:25second place.
22:26And for the Senate,
22:27I believe it already is.
22:28more or less defined
22:30like Stevenson,
22:31Valentim,
22:31from Podemos
22:32and Zenaide Maia,
22:33from the PSD,
22:33like the elected ones.
22:35Because they,
22:35excluding the Coeste Institute,
22:38they are always
22:38outside the margin of error
22:40ahead
22:40of its competitors.
22:41And that's been the case since day
22:43of the result
22:45from the Exact Sciences Institute
22:47from the research
22:48made between 7
22:48and September 9th.
22:50Real-Time Big Data
22:51found it here
22:54Samanda de Lula
22:55from the PT
22:55with 16%.
22:57It's the only one.
22:58Institute that gave
22:59She came in second place.
23:00All the others,
23:01she is, in general,
23:02the fourth force.
23:03Good,
23:04who are the candidates
23:05From the PT party here in Rio Grande do Norte?
23:07Besides Samanda Alves
23:08from the PT itself,
23:08It's Rafael Mota.
23:10from the PDT.
23:11Rafael Mota
23:12from the PDT
23:13that doesn't appear.
23:14Indeed,
23:15It appears in fourth place.
23:16And he doesn't show up.
23:18as a candidate
23:20competitive.
23:21And the candidates
23:22further to the right
23:23Saint Stevenson Valentine
23:25from Podemos
23:25and Colonel Hélio
23:26of the PL.
23:26Stevenson Valentim
23:27that is here.
23:28Colonel Hélio
23:29It is the third force.
23:30But a long way back.
23:31Then you should go.
23:32Zenaide Maia
23:33from the PSD,
23:34center,
23:35and Stevenson Valentim
23:36from Podemos,
23:36right.
23:37That's a guy
23:38from the right.
23:38Now let's go
23:40to the state
23:41from Mato Grosso.
23:42Here it is.
23:42somewhat defined
23:45that Ellington Fagundes
23:46from PL
23:46and Otaviano Piveta
23:47of the Republicans
23:48They're going to the second round.
23:50Dr. Natasha
23:51from the PSD
23:52It should be left out.
23:53And the two
23:54are, as a rule,
23:55very close, always.
23:56So I'm going to speak here.
23:57the numbers
23:57Because it doesn't matter much.
23:59It's an election.
24:00that will be decided
24:00in the second round.
24:01Notice that it doesn't have
24:02a candidate
24:03further to the left
24:04than Natasha
24:05appearing here
24:06as relevant.
24:07If you have it,
24:08It's inside.
24:08from this line
24:09others.
24:10Already for
24:12Senate,
24:13It's also more or less
24:13defined.
24:14Mauro Mendes
24:15of the Union
24:15and Janaína Riva
24:17from the MDB.
24:18José Medeiros
24:19from PL
24:19emerges as a third force,
24:21but as a rule,
24:22far from second place,
24:24Janaína Riva.
24:25The candidates
24:29Lula's
24:30Pedro Taques
24:31from the PSB
24:32and Carlos Fávaro
24:34from the PSD.
24:35Carlos Fávaro
24:36from the PSD
24:36which is in fourth place,
24:37Pedro Taques
24:38which is the fifth.
24:39I.e,
24:40Here's the PL.
24:41must make an ally,
24:42Mauro Mendes
24:43and the Centrão
24:44should take
24:45Janaína Riva
24:46from the MDB.
24:47Now let's talk
24:47from Alagoas.
24:49Alagoas
24:50he has
24:502,441,794
24:55voters.
24:55And here we have
24:56a curious situation,
24:58Very curious.
24:58It's impossible to point.
24:59who will it be,
25:01Who will go to the second round?
25:02What's that?
25:03There are two of them there.
25:04Yes, there are two.
25:04But look,
25:06according to the census data,
25:08JHC
25:09from the PSDB
25:10It has 32%.
25:11Renan Filho
25:11from the MDB
25:12It has 33%.
25:13Others
25:13They don't score any points.
25:14The Institute
25:15COEST
25:16in the research done
25:18between the days
25:18September 21st and 24th
25:20no,
25:20JHC
25:21with 43%,
25:22Renan Filho
25:23with 41.
25:24The others
25:24They also add up to 0.
25:26No Real Time
25:26Big Data
25:27also from September 21st to 24th
25:29with 1,600
25:30interviewees,
25:32JHC
25:33that's 44,
25:34Renan Filho
25:3547,
25:360 others.
25:37But the undecided
25:39are in quantity
25:39very large.
25:41Then,
25:41as
25:42in general
25:43the dwarfs
25:45They are not taking
25:461%
25:47from these latest surveys
25:48and the undecided
25:49are in quantity
25:49big,
25:50probably
25:51whoever is in front
25:52in the first round
25:53he takes.
25:54Probably
25:55That's what's going to happen.
25:56Good,
25:56who is a candidate
25:57from who?
25:58In the case of the PT,
25:59I believe it is
26:00Renan Filho.
26:02I'll check it out here.
26:03Renan Filho
26:03here,
26:04from the MDB.
26:05On the right
26:07There is no candidate.
26:08Of course, right?
26:09JHC is there.
26:10from the PSDB.
26:11The PSDB
26:11It's center-left.
26:12But between
26:13the people on the right,
26:14between the center-left
26:15and left,
26:16center-left
26:17That makes more sense.
26:18And the dispute
26:19by the Senate
26:19That's interesting too.
26:20Arthur Lira
26:21it is in shape
26:23very consistent
26:24in the first place.
26:26Marina JHC
26:28from the PSDB
26:28It's quite consistent.
26:30Second.
26:31But
26:31Renan Calheiros,
26:34in Real Time
26:35Big Data
26:36and in Data Trends,
26:38he appears
26:39very competitive.
26:40He might surprise you.
26:41In the final stretch.
26:42Oh, you believe that?
26:44Look,
26:45Alagoas
26:46It is a state.
26:46that vote buying
26:47It still works very well.
26:49And how
26:49Renan Calheiros' family
26:51She is very powerful there.
26:52because he is in power
26:53many years ago,
26:54people take risks
26:55to buy votes.
26:56Then,
26:57He might be able to.
26:58to secure a seat.
26:59It wouldn't be a surprise.
27:01he is
27:02between the two.
27:03And the candidates
27:04further to the right
27:05It would be Marina,
27:07JHC
27:07and Arthur Lira,
27:08which are the two favorites
27:09So far.
27:10And Lula's candidates,
27:12In addition to Renan Calheiros,
27:13he would be
27:13Doctor Vanderlei,
27:14from the MDB.
27:15Doctor Vanderlei,
27:16which is not competitive.
27:17I.e,
27:17the governor must be
27:18decided in the first round.
27:20Arthur Lira and Marina,
27:23from PP
27:24and Marina,
27:25JHC,
27:25from the PSDB,
27:26They are the favorites.
27:27but Renan Calheiros
27:28There's still a chance.
27:30It will depend.
27:31from this past week.
27:32Now let's go
27:32to the Federal District.
27:34Federal District,
27:36that has
27:362,253,132 voters.
27:41Here,
27:42Celina Leão,
27:43from the PP,
27:44She proves to be very competitive.
27:46and must go
27:47for the second round.
27:47The fight is
27:48between Arruda,
27:50from the PSD,
27:51and Leandro Graz,
27:52From the PT.
27:53Why
27:53they are
27:55slapping each other
27:56within the margin of error
27:57since the beginning of the election campaign
27:58on radio and TV.
28:00Good,
28:00Leandro Graz is from the PT (Workers' Party).
28:02Fact.
28:02The candidate
28:03further to the right
28:04suggested by Peter
28:05It's Celina Leão,
28:07He is not the candidate.
28:07of the New Party.
28:09he chose a candidate
28:10more competitive.
28:12Beauty.
28:13And what about the Senate?
28:14The Senate is an interesting place.
28:15Michelle Bolsonaro
28:16It's almost certain.
28:17who will be elected.
28:18Although she was hospitalized
28:19this weekend
28:20with the health problem.
28:22Leila from Volleyball,
28:23from the PDT,
28:24It appears with second force.
28:25But
28:25Bia Kicis
28:26and Erika Kocay
28:27are systematically
28:29tied with her
28:30within the margin of error.
28:31I.e,
28:32we have
28:33in various institutes
28:35These three.
28:35Leila from Volleyball,
28:36from the PDT,
28:37Bia Kicis,
28:38from PL,
28:38and Erika Kocay,
28:39from the PT,
28:40It's a technical draw.
28:42That gives us
28:43A three-way tie.
28:44Ah, but Michelle Bolsonaro
28:46It's always a technical draw.
28:47with Leila from Volleyball.
28:48In several institutes
28:49research is,
28:50in fact.
28:50But she is
28:51outside the margin of error
28:52with regard to Bia Kicis
28:53and Erika Kocay.
28:54He understands?
28:54So, hardly
28:55She will be out.
28:57because of the distance from her
28:58for the third
28:59and fourth place
28:59It's a long distance.
29:01Who takes risks?
29:02here, in theory,
29:03It's Leila from Volleyball.
29:04Because even though she is
29:05in front,
29:05She is in front.
29:06with a small margin.
29:07And as I've already said,
29:08most institutes
29:09research
29:10They lean to the left.
29:11Then,
29:12I would say that she
29:13who takes more risks.
29:15But it wouldn't be
29:16not at all surprising
29:17confirm to Michelle Bolsonaro
29:18and Leila from Volleyball
29:19as senators
29:20by the Federal District.
29:21And the PDT,
29:22at various times,
29:23voted against the PT,
29:24it saw?
29:24It's not an alliance.
29:26blind ideology.
29:27What if here
29:28If the PL wins two seats,
29:30things get complicated
29:31quite
29:32for the PT
29:32And for Lula.
29:36Now,
29:37let's go
29:37Mato Grosso do Sul
29:39with 2,024,884 voters.
29:43Here,
29:44the first round of elections
29:46for governor,
29:46I believe that already
29:47be decided.
29:48Because the sum
29:50of the top three finishers,
29:51sorry,
29:53of the second,
29:53third and fourth place,
29:54as a rule,
29:55it doesn't pass
29:56out of 35 points
29:58of voting intentions.
30:00Added to
30:01the others,
30:02even with the dwarfs,
30:04in general,
30:04it doesn't pass
30:0540%
30:05of voting intentions.
30:06Whereas
30:07Eduardo Riedel,
30:08from the PP,
30:10constantly
30:10is above
30:11of the 40%.
30:12Then,
30:13here,
30:13I believe it will be
30:15decided in the first round.
30:16I.e,
30:17The Workers' Party (PT) doesn't elect the governor.
30:19and Eduardo Riedel
30:20is described as
30:21the candidate
30:22more competitive,
30:23further to the right,
30:24here.
30:24I.e,
30:26Bolsonaro
30:28may have
30:29a governor
30:30that will
30:30become an ally
30:31after
30:31and the PL
30:33There are two candidates.
30:34own,
30:34right?
30:35The Workers' Party (PT) in Mato Grosso do Sul,
30:36Does he have any candidates?
30:38He has.
30:39Vander Lowe
30:40and Soraya Tronick.
30:42Oh,
30:43I wonder if Soraya
30:44Did he survive?
30:45She was very bad.
30:46in the previous election.
30:48Very bad.
30:49Senator.
30:50Account settled
30:50200%.
30:51Reinaldo Azambuja
30:52and Captain Contar
30:53they are always
30:54with double
30:55of voting intentions
30:56by Vander Lowe
30:57and Soraya Tronick.
30:59I.e,
31:00that the PL
31:00must do
31:01The two senators.
31:02You should do both.
31:04I don't see any chance.
31:05There's a twist here.
31:06And it is a State
31:07historically
31:08far to the right.
31:09Let's go now
31:10Sergipe.
31:11Sergipe,
31:12in this list here,
31:12It's the first one.
31:12that has less
31:132 million
31:13of voters.
31:14It has 1,740,124 registered voters.
31:17This is the situation.
31:18of the absence
31:19of a third force
31:20Significant, isn't it?
31:21Because Fabio,
31:22from the PSD,
31:23at various times,
31:24nearing 10 points
31:25percentages
31:26advantage
31:27about Valmir
31:28by Francisquinho
31:29of the Republicans.
31:30And what does that mean?
31:31Good,
31:32having Ricardo Marques
31:33from PL
31:34rarely arriving
31:35to 10 percentage points
31:36and the dwarfs
31:37as a rule
31:38falling below
31:39of the 3%,
31:40It means that Fabio
31:41from the PSD
31:42it can take
31:43in the first round.
31:44In fact,
31:44he can.
31:45He's right on the edge.
31:46according to the magazine
31:47According to the magazine,
31:48no,
31:48with the Quest Institute,
31:49He'll win in the first round.
31:51OK,
31:51It has 43%.
31:52Valmir from Francisquinho
31:54It has 34%,
31:54Ricardo Marques
31:55PL has 5%,
31:56Others have 1%.
31:57All things considered,
31:58That's 40%.
31:58i.e,
31:583 percentage points
31:59difference.
32:00Ah,
32:00but it's inside
32:00within the margin of error.
32:01It's within the margin of error.
32:02That's why I said...
32:02which is likely,
32:04I didn't say it's certain.
32:05Real-time big data.
32:06Fabio,
32:07from the PSD,
32:08It has 43%,
32:09Valmir from Francisquinho
32:09It has 38%.
32:10This is the only research.
32:12in which Ricardo Marques
32:13appears with 10%,
32:14and the other one appears with 4%,
32:16adding,
32:17that's 52%
32:19of voting intentions,
32:20against 43%.
32:21I.e,
32:22here,
32:22accuses a second round
32:24solid,
32:25but with Fabio
32:26with a wide advantage.
32:28To take a turn.
32:29It is possible,
32:30but
32:31I don't find that plausible.
32:33If we go
32:34for the IFP,
32:35IFP Institute,
32:37a survey
32:38made between 17%
32:39and 19% of 70%,
32:40with 1,300 people,
32:43Fabio has 46%.
32:44Valmir de Francisquinho
32:45It has 28.33%.
32:47But Ricardo Marques
32:48PR has 3.68%
32:49and the others don't even reach 3%.
32:50I.e,
32:51Adding it all up here,
32:52the other candidates
32:53They don't arrive
32:5440 percentage points.
32:55And the difference is 2.7 percentage points.
32:57For more and for less.
32:58And at the Global Institute
32:59already accusing victory
32:59in the first round.
33:00Ah,
33:01Who is Lula's candidate here?
33:02Does Lula have a candidate?
33:03Fabio from the PSD.
33:05Fábio Mitidiere from the PSD.
33:07It's here.
33:08I.e,
33:08An ally, right?
33:09Again,
33:10to apply pressure
33:11in Congress
33:12at the moment that
33:12something is
33:14happening.
33:15Ah, but how
33:16Is the governor putting pressure on me?
33:17Very simple.
33:17Federal deputy
33:18and the senator who is there,
33:19they have
33:20state representatives
33:21that they need
33:22close deals
33:23with the governor.
33:25And mayors too.
33:26Then,
33:27he succeeds,
33:27the governors
33:28are they able to press
33:29federal deputies
33:30and senators
33:31voting on certain topics
33:33accordingly
33:33with their regional interests.
33:35That's why I say
33:36that for pressure
33:37That's interesting.
33:38For protection,
33:39in case there is an opening
33:40of impeachment proceedings,
33:41It might not be.
33:42Let's go to the Senate.
33:43Look how beautifully colorful it is!
33:44Delegate André Davi,
33:46Delegate Alessandro.
33:47They are
33:48in front,
33:49one for the Republicans,
33:50Another one from the MDB.
33:51Rogério Carvalho from the PT (Workers' Party)
33:52emerges as a third force
33:54and André Moura from União
33:55They appear as the fourth force.
33:57The four of them,
33:58in various research institutes,
34:00They appear to be in a technical tie.
34:02In truth,
34:03You can even put it there.
34:04Eduardo Amorim
34:05of the Republicans
34:05in a technical tie
34:06Depending on the institution.
34:07In the West Coast,
34:08André Davi has 11%.
34:10of voting intentions,
34:11André Moura from União
34:12It has 12%.
34:13But delegate Alessandro
34:15from the MDB,
34:15Rogério Carvalho from the PT (Workers' Party),
34:17They both have 10%.
34:18And Eduardo Amorim
34:18The Republicans have 8%.
34:19The margin of error is 3 percentage points.
34:21For more and for less.
34:22I.e,
34:23all four are,
34:23The five are in a technical tie.
34:25I.e,
34:25You can't point the finger.
34:27For a senator here.
34:29Perhaps,
34:30in this last week,
34:31with a useful vote
34:32heading
34:33to some candidate,
34:34so that we can point someone out.
34:35But for now,
34:36nobody.
34:37The PL candidates
34:38They are merely figurative.
34:40They're back there.
34:40So, here's where it's going to be.
34:41Center
34:42More Union and Republicans,
34:44which would be center-right,
34:46and the PT fighting
34:47for two vacancies.
34:49Now we're going to Rondônia.
34:51Again,
34:51that story
34:52of a possible victory
34:55in the first round.
34:56Marcos Rogério,
34:57from PL,
34:58in some institutes
34:59research,
35:00he appears
35:01Winning in the first round.
35:02That's the case here.
35:03from the Veritar Institute,
35:04where it appears with
35:0450.3% of the votes,
35:06and its competitors
35:08They barely get through
35:0935%
35:10and at the Institute
35:12Veritar,
35:13as before,
35:15previous research.
35:15i.e,
35:16there is a possibility
35:17by Marcos Rogério
35:18have more
35:19first round,
35:20but the trend
35:20It means having a second round.
35:22But the useful vote
35:23on one's last legs
35:25may be beneficial
35:26Marcos Rogério
35:27of the PL.
35:28Do you believe you will have
35:28Second round?
35:29I believe it will.
35:30I believe it will.
35:31Good,
35:32And the Senate?
35:33How are things here?
35:34In the Senate,
35:36Fernando Máximo
35:37appears as
35:38the candidate
35:40stronger,
35:41the one that probably
35:41will win a seat,
35:43Bruno Bolsonaro Scheidt
35:45as a second force,
35:46but he is at risk
35:48because of Silvia Cristina,
35:51which shows itself
35:51Very competitive as well.
35:52I.e,
35:53first place
35:53It's more or less resolved.
35:54the second
35:55He's in the fight.
35:56If the PL
35:58make two senators,
35:59the coffin door
36:00It's closing in.
36:01to the Supreme Court.
36:02If Silvia Cristina
36:03from PP
36:03for elected,
36:05could it be
36:05that she doesn't board
36:07in the impeachment process
36:08of a Supreme Court Justice.
36:12Let's go to Tocantins,
36:14with 1,182,307 voters.
36:18It's pretty much consolidated here.
36:20a dispute
36:21in the second round,
36:22because the teacher
36:24Dorinha from União
36:25and Vicentinho Júnior,
36:26they,
36:27in most institutes
36:27research,
36:28are relatively
36:29close to each other
36:30and the other candidates
36:32They have a significant sum.
36:34Then,
36:35probably,
36:35We're going to have a second round here.
36:37Ah,
36:37But why don't you speak?
36:38of no votes
36:39In the second round?
36:40Because it's a different election.
36:42We have to see.
36:42the alliances,
36:42How are they going to establish themselves?
36:43There will be a second round.
36:44Or will it be merely figurative?
36:46There are others that don't.
36:47They're going to be very close.
36:48There is a second round.
36:48that has a twist.
36:49Then,
36:49Let's wait and see.
36:50how will the game be
36:51of alliances
36:51after the first week
36:53from the first round.
36:55An election that is already...
36:56next weekend.
36:57And what about the Senate?
36:58Senate,
36:59Eduardo Gomes,
36:59from PL,
37:00It's pretty much consolidated.
37:01like the owner
37:02from one of the chairs
37:03to the Senate this year.
37:04There we have
37:05Carlos Gaguin,
37:06from União,
37:06and Alexandre Guimarães,
37:08from the MDB,
37:08a fight with scythes
37:09for the second chair.
37:11And it is well established.
37:12that will be between them.
37:13Who are the candidates?
37:15Lula in Tocantins?
37:17Only Paulo Mourão.
37:18Ah,
37:18and the candidates
37:19Further to the right?
37:20Eduardo Gomes
37:21and Carlos Gaguin,
37:22who are in first place
37:22and second place.
37:23Lula and the PT
37:25They have to cheer.
37:25for Alexandre Guimarães,
37:26from the MDB,
37:27enter the second wave
37:29and not
37:31embark
37:31in an annulment
37:32of a Supreme Court Justice.
37:33Ah, but what
37:34impeachment of president
37:35of the Republic?
37:36If Lula
37:37for elected
37:37with the Senate
37:38having a frank
37:39majority
37:39right wing,
37:42me in his place
37:42I would resign,
37:43I would leave Brazil.
37:44and would leave the bomb
37:46For Geraldo Alckmin.
37:47The fourth electoral college,
37:49indeed,
37:50the electoral college
37:50number
37:5128,
37:5227,
37:5326,
37:53the 25th electoral college
37:54from Brazil
37:55It's not from Brazil.
37:56It's from abroad.
37:56They are voters
37:58qualified
37:59outside of Brazil.
38:00There are 918,876.
38:02I'm not going to talk about them.
38:04did you understand?
38:05But,
38:06Just a tip.
38:08Almost a million
38:09of voters
38:09They will be outside of Brazil.
38:10voting at embassies
38:12around the world.
38:16Now let's go
38:16for the first state
38:18who has less than one million
38:19of voters,
38:20Acre.
38:20Acre that has
38:23614,375 voters.
38:25Just out of curiosity,
38:26in the state of São Paulo
38:27we will have
38:29state representatives
38:30elected
38:31with more votes
38:32more than that.
38:32Oh, are you being dismissive?
38:33No.
38:33It's just a curiosity.
38:34Like Brazil
38:36It is heterogeneous.
38:37in the number of voters
38:38By state.
38:39If we look at it,
38:40to share
38:41for example
38:41with the United States,
38:41That would be the case in Hawaii.
38:43Hawaii,
38:43a small group of islands,
38:44It also has less.
38:45one million
38:45of voters.
38:46To give an example,
38:48Acre,
38:49again,
38:49a fight with scythes,
38:50but now,
38:51for governor.
38:52Alan Rick,
38:53of the Republicans,
38:54and Maíza Assis,
38:57from the PP,
38:57They are in a fight.
38:58fierce
38:59to go to the second round
39:01And to win, right?
39:02In the second round.
39:03Because they are,
39:04in general,
39:04around 35%
39:06of voting intentions.
39:07Both.
39:08What doesn't leave room
39:09for a third way,
39:10for a third force.
39:11The candidate
39:12from the right
39:12in Acre
39:14It's Alan Rick.
39:15of the Republicans.
39:16The candidate
39:17Lula
39:18It's Thor Dantas,
39:19from the PSB.
39:21Thor Dantas,
39:21which is not competitive.
39:22He doesn't arrive.
39:2310%
39:24of voting intentions.
39:25Acre,
39:25curiously,
39:26It is a state.
39:26very consistent
39:28center-right.
39:30And the candidates
39:31of Bolsonaro,
39:32or from the right,
39:33I'm already saying,
39:33right?
39:34It would be Márcio Bittar,
39:35from PL,
39:35and Mara Rocha,
39:36of the Republicans.
39:37And from Lula,
39:38It would only be Jorge Viana,
39:39From the PT.
39:40Let's see how it's going?
39:41Gladson Camelli,
39:42from the PP,
39:43It proves to be more competitive.
39:44But, interestingly,
39:45the Regional Electoral Court
39:47from Acre
39:47the registration was rejected.
39:48his candidacy.
39:49He was convicted.
39:50for over 25 years
39:51prison
39:52in closed regime
39:53during the electoral process.
39:57Not by a judge,
39:58but in a collegial setting,
39:59i.e,
40:00already at the resource level.
40:01And now the TSE (Superior Electoral Court).
40:03you will have to grant it
40:04or reject
40:05his candidacy.
40:06At first,
40:06his votes
40:07They will be cancelled.
40:08I.e,
40:08what we are seeing here
40:09It's worthless.
40:10because of his votes
40:11will they go or migrate
40:13for other candidates
40:13Or they'll explode.
40:14Let's assume that he
40:17be one of the three
40:18most voted
40:19and be removed
40:20of the dispute.
40:22Removed from the race,
40:23no,
40:23be denied
40:25his graduation
40:25as a senator
40:26in December.
40:27In that scenario,
40:28Márcio Bittar enters,
40:29from PL,
40:29that has been
40:30consistently
40:30the second force.
40:31And then we have a fight.
40:33very heated
40:34between Jorge Viana,
40:35from the PT,
40:35and Mara Rocha,
40:36of the Republicans.
40:37Because both
40:38are consistently
40:39tied
40:40within the margin of error.
40:41I.e,
40:42In this scenario,
40:43without Gladysson Camelli,
40:44Márcio Bittar
40:45It's the strongest name.
40:46the other two
40:47they emerge as
40:49possibility
40:49second chair.
40:50If Gladysson Camelli
40:51for being sworn in,
40:53then we
40:53we should have
40:54Gladysson Camelli,
40:55from the PP,
40:56and Márcio Bittar,
40:57from PL,
40:57as senators.
40:59Personally,
41:00in my opinion,
41:01a candidate
41:03who was convicted
41:04in the first instance
41:06and it is
41:06with trial date
41:09scheduled
41:09in the second instance
41:11for the election period,
41:12he shouldn't
41:13to run for office.
41:14He should be stopped.
41:15Ah, but you are
41:16denying the right
41:17to avoid that sort of thing.
41:18The PP may have lost.
41:20the chance to launch
41:21a competitive candidate,
41:22he spent money
41:23campaign
41:25of the party,
41:26and may have been harmful
41:28the entity.
41:29I think so.
41:29Very bad.
41:30I think that
41:31in the election,
41:32for senator,
41:33governor
41:33and president of the republic,
41:34that
41:36should not
41:37to be allowed.
41:38The guy
41:38He is condemned.
41:40in the first instance,
41:40is appealing
41:44to be voted on
41:45during the election campaign,
41:46He denies his candidacy.
41:48Oh no,
41:49he has an appeal
41:50For when he is sworn in.
41:51Then it goes up to the Supreme Court.
41:52then he will have
41:53were privileged
41:54and patience.
41:54Ah, he lost the election.
41:56It's still there.
41:56And let's go.
41:57Life goes on.
41:58He may have caused harm.
41:59The PP could have indicated
42:00another candidate
42:01or I could have used that
42:02to strengthen
42:03a candidate for governor
42:05and wasted his money for nothing.
42:06I.e,
42:07Here, the PL could lead.
42:08The two chairs.
42:10One by PL itself
42:11with Márcio Bittar
42:12and another through
42:13of the Republicans
42:13with Mara Rocha.
42:14Just one more little nail.
42:15there in the coffin
42:16of the Supreme Court.
42:17Salvation
42:18He's going to be elected.
42:19Jorge Viana
42:19and with the annulment
42:21of the candidacy
42:22by Gladysson Cameli,
42:23which should occur
42:24next,
42:24these three
42:25That's what they're going to do.
42:26to be in the fight.
42:28Now let's go
42:29to Amapá
42:30with 577,534 voters.
42:34This state
42:34I didn't understand why.
42:36He is accusing
42:36which will have a single shift.
42:37Then when the time comes
42:38that you look
42:38election polls,
42:40in fact,
42:40It looks like it's going to be
42:41single shift.
42:42Because at no point
42:43Clássio Luiz
42:44of the Union
42:44appears with chances
42:46to go to the second round.
42:47In all surveys,
42:49from the start of the campaign,
42:50Dr. Furlan
42:51from the PSD
42:51appears as frank
42:53favorite
42:54to win
42:54in the first round.
42:56And here's the interesting part,
42:57Brazil Union
42:57as a rule
42:58vote more
42:58against the PT
42:59rather than in favor.
43:00But here
43:01He doesn't attract votes.
43:04sufficient
43:04to go to the second round.
43:06who is pulling
43:07It's Dr. Furlan.
43:07from the PSD.
43:08But Clássio Luiz
43:10vote,
43:11despite being from União Brasil
43:12and the party that votes the most
43:13with Lula,
43:14He is being supported.
43:14by the PT.
43:15Ah,
43:15It's on the right?
43:17It is endorsing.
43:18who
43:19Here in Amapá?
43:20Dr. Furlan.
43:21Interesting, isn't it?
43:22The party
43:23who votes more
43:25on the right
43:26There is a candidate.
43:27supported by a president
43:27left
43:28and when will it
43:29for a state
43:30historically
43:31further to the right,
43:32despite having
43:32given victories
43:33to the PT there,
43:34It's a pendulum state as well.
43:36it ends
43:37dwindling,
43:38Which is quite interesting.
43:40And what about the Senate?
43:41For the Senate,
43:41Raíssa Furlan
43:42from Podemos
43:43must ensure
43:44one of the chairs.
43:45Randolfo and Rodrigues
43:46from the PT
43:47They have a great chance.
43:48to guarantee
43:49the second chair.
43:50but
43:51Lucas Barreto
43:52from the PSD
43:53It proves to be competitive.
43:55i.e,
43:55Raíssa Furlan
43:56and Randolfe Rodrigues
43:57they should take
43:58the two chairs,
43:59but
43:59Lucas Barreto
44:00can interfere
44:01in that story
44:02and leave Randolfo
44:03from the outside,
44:04which is really bad
44:05for the PT.
44:06And in Amapá
44:06It's Raíssa Furlan
44:08and Lucas Barreto
44:09like the candidates
44:10further to the right.
44:11Look,
44:12I don't know
44:12if these two
44:13they would embark
44:14in an annulment
44:15of a Supreme Court minister
44:16or president
44:16of the Republic.
44:17Sincerely,
44:18I don't know.
44:18If for the PT
44:19It would make a big difference.
44:20And here,
44:21the smallest unit
44:22from the federation,
44:23Roraima.
44:24Roraima,
44:24because
44:24than what happened
44:26with Venezuela,
44:28because Roraima
44:28received many
44:29Venezuelan immigrants
44:30and the PT,
44:32in a blatant way,
44:33supported
44:34that disgusting thing
44:36that was the government
44:37previous there
44:38from Venezuela,
44:39Roraima kind of
44:40got vaccinated,
44:41doesn't vote
44:41No one on the left.
44:43It's a thing
44:43impressive.
44:44And it is a State
44:45small
44:46in terms of population.
44:47It has 401,496
44:50voters.
44:50Arthur Henrique
44:51from PL
44:52it will take
44:53in the first round,
44:54because in no scenario
44:56he appears
44:57lagging behind the competition.
44:59And notice,
45:00the second place
45:01He's from the Republicans,
45:02a center-right party.
45:04The only party
45:06left
45:07What are you doing here?
45:08more than 1%
45:09of voting intentions
45:10It's PSOL.
45:11It's PSOL.
45:12This is for governor.
45:13And what about the Senate?
45:14Tereza Surita
45:15from the MDB
45:16and Nicolette
45:18from PL
45:18should take
45:19both vacancies.
45:19What is curious,
45:20because Hélio Lopes,
45:22Helio Negão,
45:22friend of Bolsonaro,
45:23Captain Hélio Negão,
45:24he doesn't have
45:2510% of intentions
45:26Vote here.
45:27And he would have
45:27an easy election
45:28for federal deputy
45:29There in Rio de Janeiro.
45:30He lost his job.
45:31What for the PL
45:32it is a shame.
45:34Ah, but...
45:35And what about the PT?
45:37What it means?
45:38Look, let's see here.
45:40Who is the PT?
45:42Are you providing support in Roraima?
45:44Oliveira Empire of Paraíba,
45:45which is here in others.
45:47I.e,
45:48for the PT here
45:49It's a done deal.
45:50Whoever is here
45:51will vote
45:52in favor of impeachment
45:53from the Supreme Court minister,
45:54in favor of impeachment
45:56from Lula himself
45:57And so on.
45:58Well, folks,
45:59this video here
46:00and that.
46:01If you liked it,
46:02Please,
46:03Enjoy!
46:03Comment,
46:04Share it.
46:05Help me
46:06in the project
46:06from this channel.