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Faço uma analise dos histórico da pesquisas recentes para candidatos ao governo e ao senado de todos os estados do Brasil, aqui falo de São Paulo, Minas Gerais, Rio de Janeiro, Bahia, Paraná, Rio Grande do Sul, Pernambuco, Ceará, Para, Santa Catarina, Maranhão e Goiás e seus impactos nas eleições presidenciais.
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NotíciasTranscrição
00:00Hi! You're watching the Paulada na Cara channel. My name is Marcos.
00:03It's going to be a little longer, but it will generate a lot of cuts.
00:05These are about election polls by state.
00:07Now I'm going to make a block of 12 states.
00:10These are the 12 most populous states in Brazil.
00:13With one small detail, the 12th state in terms of number of voters is Goiás, with 5,125,000.
00:19Paraíba ranks 13th, with 3,225,000, a difference of 1,900,000.
00:26Here is the electorate of a state.
00:30That's why I divided it into two blocks.
00:31One with 12, the other with 15 states.
00:34And here we're going to talk about the candidates for governor and senator.
00:38And to give an idea of what the composition of the Senate will be like at the end of these two videos.
00:43Because it will give us an idea of whether the right wing will be able to get enough votes to propose impeachment.
00:49President of the Republic, should Lula be elected, and removal of a Supreme Court minister.
00:53And on the other hand, we'll see if the left will have enough votes to protect Lula from a
00:58impeachment process, should he win.
01:00Because, in truth, the real fight isn't about whether Lula or Flávio will become president of the Republic.
01:06It remains to be seen if one of them will have a Senate that allows for political survival.
01:11Because if Flávio Bolsonaro arrives without the means to remove a Supreme Court minister,
01:15The Supreme Court will turn his life into a living hell, even more so than they did to his father.
01:19On the other hand, if Lula is elected and has no way to protect himself from impeachment proceedings...
01:25open on the right,
01:26He will depend on the Centrão (center-right bloc).
01:28But relying on the votes of the Centrão (center-right bloc) at the last minute is the same as asking to be impeached.
01:32What happened to Dilma?
01:33Many people say, "Oh, Dilma fell in a coup."
01:35No, she fell victim to betrayal.
01:37She thought she would be saved by people from the Centrão (center-right political bloc).
01:39who simply turned his back on her and voted according to public opinion.
01:43He did not vote in accordance with what was agreed upon behind the scenes.
01:46So there was no coup, there was betrayal.
01:47Furthermore, there's a detail: her vice-president was Michel Temer, from the MDB party.
01:51MDB, which was the base of the PT government since Lula's time.
01:55The president of the Senate was from the MDB party, and the president of the Chamber of Deputies was also from the MDB party.
01:59In other words, all three included men from the MDB, the Centrão, the Center-Left,
02:04He remains in that position, even though he's been an ally of theirs for over ten years.
02:07And they went, they didn't stage a coup, they betrayed, they turned their backs and let Dilma fall.
02:10That's what happened.
02:11So Lula knows he can't trust anyone to that extent.
02:13So he needs to have 27 senators from the left who will vote with him ideologically.
02:18whether he is right or not.
02:19On the other hand, Flávio Bolsonaro needs to have more than 41 senators elected.
02:24To protect him, in case he is elected.
02:27Ah, but why?
02:27Lula needs to be 27, Flávio 41.
02:30Because Flávio needs to start removing the Supreme Court justices from their positions.
02:33And the opening of impeachment proceedings requires 41 votes.
02:35And the president of the Supreme Court needs to be chosen.
02:37There are also 41 votes.
02:38If he does both and gets elected, he will be relatively protected.
02:41Because then the people from the Centrão (center-right political bloc) tend to come along with him.
02:44But ideally, we should elect more than 41.
02:46Because the Supreme Court might find a way to impeach two or three senators.
02:50So he needs to do 45.
02:52Or more.
02:52Lula needs to be 27.
02:54At the very least.
02:54But since there are already some senators who are halfway through their term now,
02:58So let's see how the composition will turn out at the end of the two videos.
03:03Enough talk.
03:04Let's watch the video.
03:05I'll speak by state, about the chances of victory for gubernatorial candidates and Senate candidates.
03:11From the least populous state to the most populous.
03:13I'm going to make a video today and I'll make a quick comment.
03:17If that's the case, regarding Lula's chances within that state.
03:19The first state to speak will be Goiás.
03:22With 5,125,000 voters.
03:24In most polls, Daniel Villela of the MDB party is on the verge of winning in the first round.
03:30However, this victory is not guaranteed.
03:32Because the Verita Institute released in its survey on the 17th that Wilder Moraes, from the PL party, has 28.3%.
03:38Marconi Perillo, from PSDB, with 15%.
03:41But Luiz César Bueno, from the PT party, with 14.9%.
03:45Together they have more than 50% of the votes.
03:47However, when we go to the Paraná Research Institute,
03:51which would be the second major institute to release research there,
03:54In the poll from the 10th, Daniel Villela rises to 45%.
03:59Marconi Perillo's approval rating rises to 23%.
04:01Wilder Moraes drops to 15% and Luiz César Bueno disappears with 3.4%.
04:05In this scenario, these three candidates would have 41.6% of the valid votes.
04:10And the minor candidates would have another 3.1%, which is very close to the 45.1% given to Daniel Villela.
04:17Other institutes yield similar results.
04:19The fact is, it is very likely that Daniel Villela will receive more than 40% of the total votes in this election.
04:25and he will be on the verge of being elected.
04:27The race for the Senate, however, seems to be settled.
04:29Gracinha Caiado, wife of Ronaldo Caiado, leads the majority in the Senate.
04:34reaching 42% of valid votes.
04:36Note that here we're talking about a multiple of 200, right?
04:39In other words, she would have as many votes as the candidate for governor of the state.
04:43The second-placed candidate, Gustavo Gaia, has consistently risen in all electoral polls.
04:48Since August 17th, it has been in second place.
04:51This indicates that the right wing here will have someone loyal to Bolsonaro, which is Gustavo Gaia.
04:57And there will be another center-right person who can be convinced to vote along with the PL.
05:03through the removal from office of either a president of the republic or a Supreme Court justice,
05:07That's Gracinha Caiado.
05:08And this is a state where we can be sure that Lula will not have a very strong vote.
05:11expressive,
05:12Because the Senate candidate supported by the PT is Cíntia Dias, from PSOL.
05:16which at no point does it even appear as a third force,
05:18and Isaura Lemos, from the PSB party, who also does not appear as a third force.
05:22And the candidate for governor of the state, from the PT party,
05:25The PT candidate for governor of the state is Luiz César Bueno.
05:28It simply doesn't even appear as a third force in the state.
05:31So, Lula is going to get a very low vote count in Goiás, once again.
05:35If you're not careful, it might even be lower than the last one.
05:37So we leave Goiás, in the central-west region, and go to Maranhão, in the northeast region.
05:41Maranhão has 5.2 million voters.
05:44In this state, Eduardo Bright, from the PSD party, almost always appears ahead of Orleans Brandão, from the MDB party.
05:51Felipe Camarão, from the PT party, and Roberto Rocha, from the PRTB party,
05:54They never surpassed 10 percentage points in voting intention polls each.
05:58And here, through the IP Census Institute, the IP Institute, and Real Time Big Data,
06:04We will have a second round.
06:05Because in none of these cases does Eduardo Bright appear with sufficient voting intention.
06:10to guarantee a first-round victory.
06:14So, we'll have a second round.
06:15Lula received a very good number of votes here in the last election.
06:17However, it seems that he is the name to be celebrated there.
06:23Because the Senate candidates,
06:26Elisiane Gama, from the PT party, who is Lula's candidate, properly speaking,
06:30It never even reached the level of a third-best team.
06:31Sidonio Gonçalves, from PL, by Instituto Veritá,
06:35It even came in second at one point.
06:37In other categories, he never emerged as a competitive name.
06:41Laésio Bonfim, from Novo, another party further to the right than PL,
06:45It appeared several times as the second most cited name.
06:49The most frequently mentioned names are André Fufuca, from the PP party, and Rosiana Sarney.
06:53But in none of them, in none of those institutions,
06:56These two candidates stand out to the point that we're about to make a final decision.
07:01and to say that they will be elected as senators.
07:03Rosiana Sarney has a very good chance, yes, she's leading in most scenarios.
07:07But there are scenarios here, such as Real-Time Big Data,
07:10in which she is in a technical tie with three other candidates.
07:13According to Real Time, which conducted the survey with more people,
07:16There have been 1,600 since August 20th.
07:20She appears in a three-way tie, with 18% of the voting intention.
07:23But André Fufuca, from the PP party, has 15%.
07:25Everton Rocha, from the PDT party, also has 15%.
07:27And Laésio Bonfim, from Novo, also has 15%.
07:30And here in Maranhão, none of Lula's Senate candidates are doing well.
07:34Therefore, I can say with certainty that Lula will receive a good number of votes.
07:36The Workers' Party (PT) and the left, no.
07:39Next, we move on to the tenth state with the largest number of voters in Brazil.
07:45Santa Catarina, with a total of 5,700,000 voters.
07:50In the previous election, Santa Catarina was the most pro-Bolsonaro state in the country.
07:54So, here, the expectation is that Lula will have an extremely low vote count.
07:57probably not reaching a third of the valid votes in the first round.
08:00And the election for governor is likely to be decided,
08:03Already in the first round, with relative ease.
08:05Because Jorginho Melo, from the PL party, appears at the Rumo Institute.
08:08with 48.9% of the valid votes.
08:11Which is more than the sum of João Rodrigues, from the PSD,
08:14Gelson Merizio, from the PSB party,
08:17and Ralf Zimmer, from PRD,
08:18and the other minor candidates,
08:21which together do not reach 35% of voting intention.
08:24At the Veritar Institute, there's practically a petition in favor of Jorginho Melo's election.
08:28because he reaches 66.1% of voting intentions.
08:31In Real Time Big Data, 49%.
08:33At Neocamp, OCP, 51.2%.
08:36In the Intel Atlas, 51.6%.
08:37In other words, it's a first-round victory, almost guaranteed.
08:40Ah, why do you say almost?
08:42Well, it's a state with a number of voters that isn't that...
08:46It's big, but not as massive as São Paulo, for example.
08:48So, you suddenly lose 300,000 or 400,000 votes.
08:52In the final stretch, it can mean enough to not go.
08:55To put it better, not win in the first round.
08:57This is an extraordinary result for Flávio Bolsonaro.
09:00Because that takes away Lula's platform.
09:02And for the Senate, the PL candidates, Caroline de Tone and Carlos Bolsonaro,
09:06They lead by a wide margin in all polling institutes regarding voting intentions.
09:11The only situation in which a possibility of defeat arises.
09:16It's Carlos Bolsonaro losing to Esperidião Amin, from the PP party.
09:21But even so, the chance is small.
09:23Because only the Rumo Institute and the Atlas Intel Institute offer this hypothesis.
09:27Veritar, Real Time Big Data, Neocamp and Coaest
09:30They're saying Carlos Bolsonaro is going to the Senate.
09:34So, we'll have to wait and see.
09:36I think we can finalize this here.
09:39that Caroline de Tone will be elected as senator,
09:42because it rarely loses it to the point of finishing in third place.
09:45Now, Carlos Bolsonaro is in this final stretch,
09:47He's not that far from Esperidião Amin.
09:49So, it's possible that Esperidião Amin will take the spot, the second spot.
09:53Ah, but... What about the PT?
09:55Well, the PT has Décio Lima as its candidate.
09:58And Afrânio Bopré as well.
10:00And neither of them, in any institution, proves to be competitive.
10:04So, this should confirm a weak showing in Lula's vote.
10:07Let's go to the northern region, let's go to Pará.
10:09Pará is the first swing state that I'm going to mention in this research.
10:13What do you mean by pendulum state?
10:14It's a state that sometimes votes with the Workers' Party (PT), and sometimes votes with the opposition.
10:18In recent elections, there has been a tendency to vote more with the right.
10:21But it's not a guaranteed victory.
10:24In the last election, the PT won there.
10:26Lula won, or rather, he won, right?
10:27The presidential election in Maranhão.
10:29Bolsonaro lost.
10:30And in the previous election, it was the opposite.
10:32Bolsonaro won against Fernando Haddad.
10:34who was Lula's candidate.
10:36Pará, which has 6,265,000 inhabitants.
10:40Better that way, voters.
10:41Here, we can say that losing 300,000 votes becomes insignificant.
10:48Because that's 5%, or 300,000 votes.
10:50Actually, even a little less.
10:51So we can say that, in the case of the election for governor,
10:55A second round is pretty much in the works.
10:58But it's impossible to say for sure.
10:59Why?
10:59Hannah Gassan, from the MDB party,
11:02She appears in the Verita poll with 38.9% of voting intentions.
11:06In Real Time Big Data, with 40.
11:09Verita had already appeared with 38.5%.
11:11Atlas Intel, with 48.5%.
11:13And in the Index, with 35.7%.
11:15And Daniel Santos, from Podemos,
11:17It appeared with 56.2%, with 35%, with 48%, and so on.
11:21What is the crux of the matter?
11:22Why can't we just decide what the second round will be?
11:24Because the third most cited candidate
11:27It's Araceli Lemos, from PSOL.
11:29which, as a rule, does not reach 3% of voting intentions.
11:31In other words, there's a chance the election will be decided.
11:34In the first round, there in Pará.
11:37And Dr. Daniel, from Podemos,
11:38He is a candidate who is closer to Bolsonaro.
11:41And he has a chance of winning in the first round.
11:43Which would be very bad for Lula.
11:46Because if the decision is made in the first round,
11:48The chances of you buying votes in the second round,
11:50from those small towns in the interior of Pará,
11:54They are greatly reduced.
11:55Because the expectation of the Workers' Party activist,
12:00or from some party allied with the PT,
12:01to win a small job,
12:02It kind of disappears.
12:04So the guy doesn't have the incentive to go after the voter.
12:07And don't even risk buying votes.
12:09So this could be very bad for Lula.
12:10Which could be very good for Flávio Bolsonaro.
12:12And what about the Senate?
12:13Well, the Senate, according to research institutes,
12:16Things are more or less settled.
12:18Among Hélder Barbalho, from the MDB,
12:20and Hélder Mauro, from the PL party.
12:22There is none here, in any research institute,
12:24a third force that, at some point,
12:26one of the two may have been threatened.
12:27Ah, is that good or bad?
12:28Look, I wouldn't trust my presidential sash to anyone.
12:31for Hélder Barbalho,
12:33to initiate the impeachment process.
12:35Honestly, I think he's one who
12:36abandons Bacchus at the last minute.
12:37He will defend, defend, defend,
12:39until leaving the committee that would approve it.
12:42the impeachment request,
12:43whether for a Supreme Court minister,
12:44whether for the presidency of the Republic.
12:46He would support it to avoid impeachment.
12:47But once it passed,
12:49He would vote for the impeachment.
12:50He would switch sides at the last minute.
12:51More or less like some senators did.
12:53In Dilma's case.
12:54As for Hélder Mauro, he needs no introduction.
12:55He is a candidate of Bolsonaro.
12:58Zequinha Marinho is an ally.
12:59It appears consistently.
13:01with third force.
13:02I don't believe he has enough strength.
13:03to guarantee a spot,
13:05because he would take Hélder Mauro's place,
13:07So you'd be trading six for half a dozen.
13:09In the end.
13:09Because what's important for PL
13:11That would mean removing Hélder Barbalho.
13:13That's not going to happen.
13:14Lula will get a significant number of votes here.
13:16But if there is no second round,
13:18you convince the activist,
13:20the campaign manager,
13:20going to fetch the voter
13:21and to take a risk, suddenly,
13:23buying votes,
13:23That's not going to happen.
13:26Let's move on to the fifth state in this sequence,
13:28Ceará.
13:29Ceará has been the state
13:32consistently to the left,
13:33quite consistently on the left.
13:35And then we have a struggle from the center-left,
13:38currently led by Ciro Gomes,
13:40at the head of the PSDB in the state of Ceará,
13:42and Eumano de Preitas from the PT.
13:44And here we have an interesting situation.
13:46According to Intel Atlas,
13:47Ciro Gomes has 48% of the vote.
13:49Eumano de Preitas 48.5%.
13:51But the other candidates together
13:52They only have 1.5%.
13:53I.e,
13:54We run the risk of having a decision.
13:55in the first round,
13:56because all it takes is a strategic vote.
13:57of these dwarf plants migrating to one of the two,
13:59for the election to be decided
14:01in the first round.
14:02Paraná Pesquisas is giving
14:03an advantage beyond the margin of error,
14:05For Ciro Gomes.
14:06Dataforia too,
14:07already in Real Time Big Data,
14:09invert.
14:09That's Eumano de Preitas who's in charge.
14:12Although,
14:12In these scenarios I'm talking about,
14:14whoever is in the lead,
14:15Beyond the margin of error,
14:16he takes,
14:17because the sum of the other candidates
14:19It rarely exceeds 4%.
14:21Then,
14:21if you have 5 percentage points more
14:23that your competitor,
14:24who is in second place,
14:25but the dwarf crops don't even reach 4%.
14:27You win.
14:27Then,
14:28we have a real chance
14:29of a victory
14:29in the first round
14:31Here, one of the two.
14:32And if that happens,
14:33again,
14:34that vote-buying process
14:35that exists in small towns
14:36from the interior,
14:37wilted.
14:37Because the activist,
14:39the campaign manager,
14:40who dreams of a small job
14:41there,
14:41some public office,
14:42a small, appointed position,
14:43He's not going to take the risk.
14:44because the governor
14:45It won't be there anymore.
14:46to secure a cushy job for him.
14:47Did you understand?
14:48Then,
14:48If Ciro Gomes wins,
14:50the thing for Lula
14:50It looks really ugly.
14:51thinking about the presidential election
14:53second round,
14:54because of vote buying
14:55It gets more difficult.
14:56But Ceará won't allow it.
14:57of being on the left,
14:57whether center-left,
14:58be a left
15:01more consistent.
15:01And what about the fight for the Senate?
15:02You can't point here.
15:04who will take
15:05the Senate seat.
15:06Why?
15:06Cid Gomes
15:07it is consistently
15:08The strongest candidate here.
15:10But he is no longer strong.
15:11to the point where we can nail it.
15:12He will be elected senator.
15:14Because, for example,
15:14at Atlas Intel,
15:15He has 26.9%.
15:17of voting intentions.
15:18Luziane Lins
15:1924.8% of the network's revenue is from that network.
15:21But Captain Wagner
15:22from União,
15:23who is a candidate
15:24with Bolsonaro's support,
15:25It has 22.4%.
15:27I.e,
15:27He is very little
15:29beyond the margin of error
15:31with regard to Cid Gomes
15:32and it is totally
15:32within the margin of error
15:33with Luiziane.
15:34But Luiziane,
15:35in turn,
15:35is completely
15:36within the margin of error
15:37both in relation to Cid Gomes
15:38as for Captain Wagner.
15:39In Paraná Research,
15:40Cid Gomes
15:41and Captain Wagner
15:43They look cool.
15:44But here,
15:44Captain Wagner
15:45Stay a little while longer.
15:46ahead of Cid Gomes
15:47and the two of them stay
15:47reasonably ahead
15:48by Luiziane.
15:49According to Datafolha,
15:50the same thing
15:51from Paraná.
15:53You have a three-way tie.
15:54because you have
15:55Captain Wagner
15:55within the margin of error
15:56tied with Cid Gomes
15:57and within the margin of error
15:58with Luiziane.
15:59But Cid Gomes
16:00It's not taking off.
16:01far beyond
16:02within the margin of error.
16:03Then,
16:03here we can say
16:04those who have no chance,
16:06but you can't say
16:06Who will be a senator?
16:08Because, for example,
16:08Alcides Fernandes,
16:09in various institutes,
16:10he has more than 15%
16:14of voting intentions.
16:14But he is below.
16:15of the 20%
16:16that the others
16:17they are pointing
16:18that they will have.
16:19General Teófilo,
16:20of the New,
16:21He would also be a candidate.
16:22Bolsonaro supporter.
16:23This one won't pass.
16:245%
16:24in no institute.
16:25And the dwarfs,
16:26added together,
16:27also rarely
16:27They exceed 5%.
16:28So, here,
16:29the right shows
16:30who has strength
16:31to elect senators,
16:32but it doesn't show
16:33to have strength
16:33to become governor.
16:34It is a state
16:35which will continue
16:36on the left,
16:37although,
16:37The right wing is already demonstrating
16:38to have grown up well.
16:40The bench
16:40for federal deputy
16:41in Ceará
16:42That's going to be interesting.
16:43so we can see
16:43So, what happened next?
16:44the composition of forces.
16:45Because that's a vote.
16:46more ideological.
16:47Pernambuco.
16:47This state
16:48It has 7,225,000 voters.
16:52AND,
16:52The bar is rising fast, folks.
16:54Here we have an election.
16:55of two candidates.
16:56Because everyone else,
16:58added together,
16:58in no institute
16:59research,
17:00apart from Real Time Big Data,
17:02They appear with more than
17:035% of voting intentions.
17:04But,
17:05in most institutes,
17:07the difference
17:07between Raquel Lira
17:08and João Campos
17:09They indicate a victory.
17:11by Raquel Lira
17:12in the first round.
17:13Raquel Lira,
17:14Yes, she is from the PSD party.
17:15Centrão.
17:16She belongs to the Centrão (center-right political bloc).
17:17It's the one who has the best chance.
17:18to win in the first round.
17:19But that doesn't mean
17:20that she cannot take
17:21a turning point
17:21given by João Campos
17:23from the PSB,
17:23which is from the allied base
17:24Lula's.
17:25Here, if there is a second round,
17:26This is great for Lula.
17:27If you don't have it,
17:28Things could get complicated.
17:29Because the machine
17:30vote buying,
17:31if you don't have
17:32a candidate for governor
17:32in the second round,
17:33It wilts.
17:34She fails.
17:35So, things get quite complicated.
17:37Ah, but why do you say that?
17:37So much about vote buying?
17:39Because in states
17:40where this occurs,
17:42as is the case
17:43from the northern states
17:44and Northeast,
17:45candidates who are
17:46linked to the government,
17:47how can you achieve
17:48a box two
17:49more easily,
17:50they tend to want
17:51buying votes
17:53of the poorest voters.
17:54And often,
17:55the only advantage
17:55what does he have in the election
17:56yes, in fact,
17:57sell his vote
17:58in exchange for a
17:58or two basic food baskets.
18:00Unfortunately,
18:00This is a Brazilian reality.
18:02Ah, that happens too.
18:03in other states of Brazil.
18:04like São Paulo,
18:05Minas Gerais,
18:05It happens.
18:06But you can
18:07buy enough votes
18:08to define a deputy
18:09state,
18:10a federal congressman,
18:11he knows?
18:12Change one or two chairs.
18:13To here or to there.
18:14To appoint a senator,
18:15a governor,
18:16or make a purchase
18:17enough
18:18to weigh
18:19the vote
18:20for a president
18:21of the republic
18:21It's much more difficult.
18:22because the average gain
18:24of the population
18:24in these other states
18:25It's much taller.
18:26and the weight
18:27for local politicians
18:29is smaller
18:29and the risk
18:30It's much bigger.
18:31If you
18:31they can search
18:32on news portals,
18:33you'll see that
18:33every election,
18:34whether municipal,
18:35whether state,
18:36People are being arrested.
18:37with money
18:38accused who was going to do
18:39vote buying.
18:40Every election has one.
18:40Although,
18:41There are states where this weight
18:42It's bigger.
18:42Then,
18:43these states normally
18:44They are the poorest,
18:45which are the northern states
18:46and northeast,
18:47unfortunately.
18:48If these states
18:48start to get very rich
18:49and quality of life
18:50for the population to improve
18:52and, consequently,
18:53the level of education,
18:54that could be
18:55that vote buying
18:56mingue.
18:57But apart from that,
18:58he forgets,
18:59It will continue to happen.
18:59Okay,
19:00you said,
19:00he spoke,
19:00he spoke,
19:01But what about the Senate?
19:02The Senate
19:02tend,
19:03tends to stay
19:04with Marília Reis
19:06from the PDT
19:07and Humberto Costa
19:08from the PT,
19:08i.e,
19:08The Senate is on the left.
19:09Although,
19:10Mendonça Filho
19:11from PL,
19:11according to
19:12Real-Time Big Data
19:13would be the second name
19:15most voted.
19:15And indeed,
19:16when you
19:16Check out the Data Trends,
19:18the top three finishers,
19:19Marília Reis,
19:20Humberto Costa
19:20and Mendonça Filho,
19:21They are in a technical tie.
19:22When you look
19:23the Veritar Institute,
19:25also,
19:25The three of them, again,
19:26They are in a technical tie.
19:27I.e,
19:27we can point out here
19:28that Marília Reis,
19:29from the PDT,
19:30most likely,
19:31She will be elected.
19:32Humberto Costa
19:33He is the favorite.
19:33to the second wave,
19:34although,
19:35Mendonça Filho
19:35There's a chance.
19:36These last ten days
19:37They're the ones who will define everything.
19:38If the PT manages to confirm
19:40these two chairs,
19:41wonder,
19:42if you don't confirm
19:43and if the PL makes one,
19:44then the thing
19:44for Lula
19:45It's starting to go sour.
19:46Because if we're going to lose,
19:46probably,
19:47who won't be there
19:47It's Humberto Costa.
19:48Someone completely
19:51subservient
19:51according to Lula's wishes.
19:52And here,
19:53Lula will win.
19:54probably,
19:54with 60 to 70%
19:56of the valid votes.
19:57The closer he gets
19:58out of 70,
19:59good,
19:59the closer he gets
20:00out of 60,
20:01bad.
20:01Did you understand?
20:01Because the right
20:03never passed the mark
20:04one third
20:05of the valid votes
20:05in the State.
20:08Now,
20:09let's talk
20:09from Rio Grande do Sul.
20:10There,
20:11We've climbed another step.
20:128 million and 525 thousand voters.
20:14Rio Grande do Sul
20:15It was the first state.
20:15where the PT
20:16It stood out.
20:17in national terms
20:17making governor
20:18over there,
20:19if it's not memory
20:20still at the end
20:21from the 80s.
20:22But look at this!
20:22interesting.
20:23Here,
20:23According to Bras Market,
20:25Luciano Zucco from PL
20:26could lead to the election
20:27in the first round.
20:28Already at Paraná Pesquisas,
20:30This does not happen.
20:31But he would have,
20:32but Luciano Zucco
20:33would have an advantage
20:34about Juliana Brizola
20:35from the PDT,
20:36beyond the margin of error.
20:38Real-Time Big Data
20:39The two teams are tied.
20:4038% and 35%
20:42respectively.
20:43The Studio Institute
20:44that's 34.2%
20:46and 31%
20:47for both candidates.
20:49And that's how we arrived.
20:49to Intel Atlas,
20:50where Luciano Zucco from PL
20:51would have 44.3%
20:53and Juliana Brizola
20:54from the PDT
20:5537.5%.
20:56Here,
20:57the trend is to have
20:59second round,
21:00but with Luciano Zucco
21:02being a strong favorite
21:04in the second round.
21:06Although,
21:06when are you going
21:07analyze the election
21:08for the second round,
21:09most surveys
21:11They indicate that Juliana Brizola
21:13can turn inside
21:14margin of error
21:15about Luciano Zucco.
21:17It's something to see.
21:18Here,
21:18for Lula,
21:19vote buying
21:20It's irrelevant.
21:22But,
21:23but,
21:24to have the platform,
21:25to have someone talking
21:25well of him,
21:26and probably Juliana Brizola
21:27I would do that job,
21:29It is fundamental.
21:29to stay alive.
21:31And what about the race for the Senate?
21:31The race for the Senate,
21:33we have here
21:34Marcel Van Hatten
21:35as the overwhelming favorite
21:37to grab one of the chairs.
21:38Why,
21:39excluding the Studio Institute,
21:42where he barely goes
21:43of the 20% of voting intentions,
21:45and it doesn't stay
21:47nor in second place,
21:48all other institutes
21:49They give him as the first
21:50or second
21:51candidate with the most votes
21:52of the State.
21:53Which leads us
21:54to observe
21:56Who is the third force, right?
21:57What do you mean by "third force"?
21:58Go,
21:59why
21:59Biratan Sanderson,
22:01from PL,
22:01and Manuela Dábida,
22:02from PSOL,
22:03They are in a real situation.
22:04fight with a scythe
22:05for second place.
22:06Ah, Marcos,
22:07Who do you believe?
22:08What will you take?
22:09Honestly?
22:10I don't know,
22:11because Paulo Pimenta
22:12and Germano Rigotto,
22:13they have intentions
22:14very high vote counts.
22:16And here,
22:16the useful vote
22:17of the fourth and fifth placed
22:19could weigh in your favor
22:20of one of the others
22:21three candidates.
22:22Then,
22:23It's impossible to say for sure.
22:24Who will take it?
22:25Can we say
22:26that probably
22:26Marcel Van Hatten
22:27will be in the Senate
22:28next year,
22:30and the second wave
22:31will be in a
22:31A real fight to the death.
22:32between Biratan Sanderson,
22:33from PL,
22:34and Manuela Dábila,
22:35from PSOL.
22:36Look at this interesting thing.
22:37Two parties
22:38are ideologically
22:39opposites
22:40fighting for the same spot.
22:41It's on the right
22:42showing great strength
22:43with two candidates
22:43very competitive.
22:45We'll continue from there.
22:46in the south
22:46and we'll talk
22:47from Paraná
22:47with 8,609,000
22:50voters.
22:52This is an election.
22:52curious.
22:54It existed at the time.
22:54of the scandal
22:56of the Petrobras scandal
22:56the term
22:57Republic of Paraná.
22:59And here
22:59There's something interesting.
23:01Sergio Moro
23:02which was the great
23:03name
23:04of this
23:05Republic of Paraná
23:06what was the group
23:07of judges
23:08prosecutors
23:09investigators
23:10that were
23:11lift all the light
23:12of the dirt
23:13of Lava Jato
23:14and the Petrobras scandal
23:15he was
23:16the great leader
23:16the great exponent.
23:17He appears
23:18Research in Paraná
23:20with 44.7%
23:21of voting intentions.
23:22He doesn't
23:23he arrives
23:24by Paraná Research
23:25to take first
23:26all,
23:27But it's very close.
23:27Already by Nelkamp
23:29also
23:29he doesn't even get to take it
23:30But it's very close.
23:32By Atlas Intel
23:33It's also nearby.
23:34I.e
23:34probably here
23:36Sergio Moro
23:37Go to the first round.
23:38exits the first round
23:40very close
23:41to guarantee
23:42the vacancy
23:42governor
23:43for yourself
23:44and Requião Filho
23:45from the PDT
23:46and Sandro Alex
23:47from the PSD
23:47They are in a power struggle.
23:49why
23:49they are
23:50constantly
23:51in a technical draw
23:52mostly
23:53of election polls
23:54since the end of August.
23:56I.e
23:56We will have a first round.
23:58with a clear leader
24:00with around 20 points
24:01advantage
24:01about the second place
24:02which is practically
24:04guarantees
24:04that he will be
24:05the victorious
24:06in the second round.
24:07And for the PT
24:08choose between
24:09Requião Filho
24:09from the PDT
24:10and Sandro Alex
24:11from the PSD
24:12to try to find
24:13platform for Lula
24:14It's a mission.
24:15let's say
24:16ungrateful
24:17because that's not what
24:17They wanted it.
24:18Why
24:18center-left
24:20from Paraná
24:21she is
24:22very cool
24:23dependency
24:24from the left
24:25defended by the PT.
24:27And what about the fight for the Senate?
24:28Good
24:28the fight for the Senate
24:29we have a situation
24:30interesting.
24:30Deltan Dallagnol
24:31had his campaign
24:32electoral
24:32suspended
24:33But he was
24:34favorite
24:35to secure one of the spots.
24:36Felipe Barros
24:37and Alexandre Cury
24:38who are the candidates
24:40Bolsonaro
24:40They are in second place.
24:42and third place
24:43according to the majority
24:44searches here
24:44then
24:45to the Supreme Court
24:47hunt
24:47Deltan Dallagnol
24:48that would be something
24:48more personal
24:49than
24:49electorally
24:51interesting
24:51because that can
24:52mean
24:53loss of votes
24:54for Lula
24:54in the second round
24:55because that will be
24:56used
24:57by Sergio Moro
24:58in the second round
24:59if it happens
24:59the campaign
25:00for governor
25:01there
25:01as a form of redress
25:02to vote
25:03no Lula
25:03i.e.
25:04It's all bad.
25:05over there for the PT
25:06It is a state.
25:07that the PT
25:08no chance
25:09to take
25:09nothing
25:10in terms of
25:11presidency of the republic
25:12Ah, but Glaze Hoffman
25:14shows strength
25:15It might be possible.
25:16yes you can
25:17but she is the fourth
25:18state power
25:19only the institute
25:20Neocamp
25:20she accused
25:22as possible
25:23second place
25:25and to the west
25:26there in August
25:26the other institutes
25:28they don't put it
25:28as a third force
25:31They position themselves as the fourth force.
25:32and some put it
25:33even from afar
25:34of the other three
25:35as is the case
25:36from Real Time Big Data
25:37not from Real Time
25:38from Paraná Research
25:39which puts her
25:40beyond the shore
25:41error
25:42behind Alexandre Cury
25:43and Deltan Dallagnol
25:44and behind Felipe Barros
25:46within the margin of error
25:47i.e.
25:47she stays far behind
25:49so for Lula
25:49It's a situation
25:50horrible
25:51to overthrow Deltan Dallagnol
25:52personally speaking
25:53It would be good for him.
25:54to carry out this persecution
25:55against him
25:56electorally
25:56plays against
25:57and in detail
25:58Paraná
25:59voted a lot
26:00on the right
26:01in the last election
26:01and should vote even more for this
26:02which is very bad
26:03pro PT
26:05good
26:06let's talk
26:06from Bahia
26:07here
26:08We arrived at the room.
26:09largest electoral college
26:11from Brazil
26:11and the state
26:12that gave
26:13Yes
26:13one of the largest margins
26:15for Lula
26:15to ensure how
26:16winner of the previous election
26:18which was very tight
26:19Bahia has 11 million
26:20321,000 voters
26:22and here
26:23a situation is occurring
26:24interesting
26:25due to the failures
26:26PT's administrative offices
26:27in the last 4
26:28but 8 years
26:29Antonio Carlos Magalhães
26:30Grandchild
26:31from Union Brazil
26:32has a real chance
26:33to win in the first round
26:35how is it
26:35but Jerônimo from the PT
26:37in various institutes
26:38it appears with more than 40%
26:39Yes
26:39It's that situation.
26:40that you don't have
26:41a third force
26:42to attract votes
26:43why
26:44Ronaldo Mansur
26:45from PSOL
26:45barely passes
26:471%
26:48of voting intentions
26:49the others added together
26:50only at the Veritá Institute
26:51add up to 5%
26:53of voting intentions
26:53but at the Veritá Institute
26:55CM Neto
26:56has more than 50%
26:57i.e.
26:58there is a strong possibility
26:59by ACM Neto
27:01win in the first round
27:03despite a vote
27:04extremely expressive
27:05of Jerome
27:06in the first round
27:08Ah, but do you think...?
27:09that Jerônimo
27:10He cannot be governor.
27:11of the state
27:12I think it's possible.
27:13although
27:13whoever wins in the first round
27:15has a great chance
27:16to take
27:17in fact
27:18the election
27:18already in the first round
27:20why
27:20the dwarfs added together
27:21They should give 2.3%.
27:23then if the difference
27:24between CM Neto
27:25and Jerome
27:26It was the 4
27:26The election is over.
27:27so we have a real chance
27:29of a victory
27:30in the first round
27:31by ACM Neto
27:31and if that happens
27:32again
27:33that dirty trick
27:34to buy votes
27:35ceases to occur
27:36Ah, but that...
27:36It makes a difference.
27:37little by little
27:38that you buy
27:39state by state
27:40Yes, it can make a difference.
27:41not counting the platform
27:42of having someone talking
27:43good for you
27:44all the time
27:45that it won't have
27:45and the news
27:47It's been pretty bad.
27:48for Lula
27:48and the race for the Senate
27:49That's how it is.
27:50relatively resolved
27:52why?
27:53Rui Costa from the PT (Workers' Party)
27:54and Jacques Wagner
27:55also from the PT
27:55appear consistently
27:57first and second place
27:59in most institutes
28:00research
28:00only the Verita Institute
28:02and Data Trends
28:04John Rome
28:05from PL
28:05and Colonel Angel
28:07how competitive
28:08for the second wave
28:09i.e.
28:09The PT guarantees
28:10one
28:11and has chances
28:12real
28:13He is the favorite.
28:14to guarantee the second
28:14but neither is guaranteed
28:15if the PT loses
28:17one of the vacancies here
28:18The PT will stay
28:18in a situation
28:19very complicated
28:20in the Senate
28:20why
28:21There will be another candidate.
28:22clearly to the right
28:24in favor
28:24to hunt down Supreme Court justices
28:26and the President of the Republic himself
28:27and this may also indicate
28:28that Lula
28:29There will be fewer votes.
28:30in the second round
28:31in this election
28:32of what he had
28:33in the previous election
28:33Let's go to the third state.
28:35in number of voters
28:36Rio de Janeiro
28:37Rio de Janeiro
28:38has 12,857,000
28:40voters
28:41It is the birthplace of Bolsonarism.
28:43although
28:43the PT historically
28:44It's very strong there too.
28:45and this is where it happens
28:46something interesting
28:47Eduardo Paes
28:48He is Lula's candidate.
28:49however the candidate
28:50embarrassed
28:50he rarely appears
28:52in Lula's campaigns
28:53in the mayoral election
28:55Lula supported him.
28:56behind the scenes
28:56but it didn't show up
28:58in the campaign
28:58from the city hall
29:00to help
29:00Eduardo Paes
29:01and on the other hand
29:02Douglas Ruas
29:03from PL
29:03it was little known
29:05of the population
29:05as a candidate
29:07Bolsonaro
29:07And then it happened.
29:08something interesting
29:09of a victory
29:10in the first round
29:11by Eduardo Paes
29:12things are
29:13becoming
29:13a dispute
29:14that goes to the second round
29:15very competitive
29:16the Veritar Institute
29:17which was disclosed
29:18September 18th
29:19from the
29:19Eduardo Paes
29:20with 42.3%
29:22of voting intentions
29:22Douglas Ruas
29:23from PL
29:23with 41.9%
29:25Real-Time Big Data
29:26in scenario 1
29:27Eduardo Paes
29:28appears with 36%
29:29Douglas Ruas
29:30from PL
29:31with 27%
29:32Ah, but you're saying...
29:33which was a victory
29:34in the first round
29:35it was
29:35Let's take a look here.
29:36Paraná Research
29:37July 30th
29:39Eduardo Paes
29:40had 48.6%
29:41of voting intentions
29:42against
29:4211.1%
29:44by Douglas Ruas
29:45Real-Time Big Data
29:46it was 37%
29:47voting intention
29:48for Eduardo Paes
29:5016%
29:50for Douglas Ruas
29:51That's what we're talking about.
29:52July
29:52a little bit
29:53before the election campaign
29:54with the debates
29:55where the debates took place
29:57there in Rio de Janeiro
29:58and with the campaign
29:59radio and TV
29:59people started to associate
30:01Douglas Ruas
30:02to Bolsonaro
30:02And remember what I said?
30:03Rio de Janeiro
30:04it's the cradle
30:05of Bolsonarism
30:05then
30:06for the PT
30:07failing to make the ally
30:08to the state government
30:09from Rio de Janeiro
30:10and Douglas Ruas
30:11to win
30:11It's a set.
30:12of small positions
30:13that the party loses
30:14not to mention that
30:15this guarantees
30:16for Bolsonaro
30:17platform in the second round
30:18something he wasn't having
30:19at the beginning of the campaign
30:20i.e.
30:20Here the situation is reversed.
30:22It's Flávio Bolsonaro.
30:23that I needed
30:24of the second round
30:24to have a platform
30:25And the Senate?
30:26the Senate
30:27That's very interesting.
30:28Benedita da Silva
30:29in all surveys
30:30appears as
30:31being very competitive
30:33with real chances
30:34to take
30:34one of the Senate seats
30:36only the Veritá Institute
30:37what did she give
30:38outside of second place
30:40although
30:41within the margin of error
30:42tied with
30:43Carlos Jordi from PL
30:44and Carlos Portinho
30:45also from PL
30:46i.e.
30:47This is an election.
30:48that we see
30:48consistently
30:49a technical draw
30:51triple
30:51between Benedita da Silva
30:52Carlos Jordi
30:53and Portinho
30:54Marcelo Crivella
30:55It even shows the strength.
30:56but it doesn't show consistency
30:57between the institutes
30:58research
30:59We'll probably have it there.
31:00the useful vote
31:01by Crivella
31:02going to the candidates
31:03from PL
31:03But will that be enough?
31:05to avoid
31:05a chair
31:06for Benedita da Silva
31:07That's something we don't know.
31:08for Lula
31:09secure the seat
31:10a chair there
31:11It is fundamental.
31:12lose
31:12It makes everything much more difficult.
31:14thinking about the presidency of the Republic
31:17Let's go to Minas Gerais.
31:18Minas Gerais
31:19It is the second state.
31:21pendulum
31:22what I'm going to talk about today
31:22in general
31:23the President of the Republic
31:24wins in Minas Gerais
31:26Lula won
31:27by 40,000 votes
31:28only difference
31:28in Minas Gerais
31:29but won
31:29in the second round
31:30And then we have a situation...
31:32very interesting
31:33Cleitinho from the Republicans
31:34who was a candidate
31:35that for personal reasons
31:36It stayed there.
31:36I'm going to be a candidate.
31:37or I won't
31:38Should I go or not?
31:38Should I go or not?
31:39why?
31:40because he recently lost
31:41brother
31:42so he is
31:43going through a depressive process
31:45and the second place
31:45It's Patros Ananias
31:46But here's something interesting.
31:48several institutes
31:49point
31:50the possibility of victory
31:51in the first round
31:53for Cleitinho
31:54which would be devastating
31:55for Lula
31:55Oh, what do you mean?
31:56I'll give you an example here.
31:56Veritar Institute
31:57Cleitinho has 47.4%
31:59of voting intentions
32:00then at the time when you
32:01sum
32:01Patros Ananias
32:02Alexandre Calil
32:03Matthew Simons
32:04the three of them together
32:05They don't even reach 35%
32:07i.e.
32:07They will depend on the candidates.
32:08dwarfs
32:08to have a second round
32:10So Cleitinho has a chance.
32:11How to win in the first round?
32:12he has
32:12Ah, I believe it will happen.
32:15second round
32:15I believe it will.
32:16But that wouldn't be a surprise.
32:18in this final stretch
32:19post-blunder
32:20of the STF
32:21which splashed onto Lula
32:22I wouldn't be surprised.
32:24Cleitinho winning
32:25I wouldn't watch that.
32:26as a surprise
32:27That's not likely.
32:28but it wouldn't quite reach that point
32:30strange
32:31the fight for the Senate
32:32the fight for the Senate
32:33That's interesting.
32:34Look at the colorful one here!
32:35Marília Campos
32:36appears as a favorite
32:37to one of the vacancies
32:38but for example
32:39at the Ver Institute
32:40She is in a technical tie.
32:42triple
32:42with Aécio Neves
32:43and with Carlos Viana
32:44Aécio Neves of the PSDB
32:45Carlos Viana from PSD
32:47Real-Time Big Data
32:48she continues to lead
32:49but a technical draw
32:51triple
32:51it is between
32:52Wise Sunday
32:53and Carlos Viana
32:54i.e.
32:54Marília Campos
32:55It's one of the favorites.
32:56to secure a spot
32:57but the voting intentions
32:59They are so balanced.
33:00among the top four
33:01any composition
33:02It is possible
33:02It is possible
33:03for example
33:04Marília Campos
33:05and Carlos Viana
33:06guarantee seats
33:07in the Senate
33:07what could it be
33:08very good for Lula
33:09because the PSD
33:10It has a wing.
33:10who votes with the PT
33:12and there's another wing
33:13who votes against the PT
33:14It's a somewhat divided party.
33:15PSDB
33:16It is also a party.
33:17split half
33:18so for them
33:19that could be interesting
33:20One of the two will win.
33:21can block
33:21a request
33:22impeachment
33:23on one's last legs
33:24Can you trust us?
33:24Between those two?
33:25No, it won't work.
33:25now if Domingo Sávio
33:27put
33:27This is getting really interesting.
33:29for the PL
33:29who is yet another senator
33:30look
33:31most states
33:31PL is doing
33:32or a senator of their own
33:33or a senator
33:35ideologically aligned
33:35He is not a senator.
33:37who makes an agreement
33:38more or less
33:38ideologically aligned
33:40And so it is.
33:41the situation described
33:42from Minas Gerais
33:43that has
33:4316,377,000
33:47voters
33:48and we're going to the state
33:49with the highest number
33:50of voters
33:50which has more than double
33:51of the total of the second
33:52São Paulo
33:53with 34,100,000
33:56voters
33:57if my memory serves me right
33:59the person who is elected
34:00governor
34:00in the state of São Paulo
34:01has more votes
34:02that the president of Argentina
34:03Here is a situation
34:04what is taking shape
34:05in a very unfavorable way
34:06to the PT
34:07like this?
34:07There is no candidate.
34:09right
34:09to steal votes
34:10by Tarcísio
34:11then all the votes
34:11from the right
34:12and center-right
34:12They go to him.
34:13apart from the rejection
34:14that Haddad has
34:16in the city of São Paulo
34:17There's a bunch of idiots.
34:18who speaks
34:18Ah, Haddad
34:19He was the best mayor.
34:21of the history of São Paulo
34:22it wasn't
34:23it wasn't
34:23and the numbers themselves
34:24PT members prove this.
34:25Marta Suplicy
34:26when she lost
34:27her reelection
34:28but she was
34:29She was from the PT (Workers' Party).
34:30and she
34:30when he tried for reelection
34:31She went to the second round.
34:32Haddad ran an administration
34:33so bad
34:34so gruesome
34:36that he achieved
34:37not going to the second round
34:39in his reelection
34:40the people who voted
34:41with the PT
34:42to be re-elected
34:43Marta Suplicy
34:44a few years before
34:45did not vote with Haddad
34:46to take him
34:47for the second round
34:48so you can go to the second round.
34:49you need to have
34:49in the city of São Paulo
34:51historically
34:5130
34:5233%
34:54of voting intentions
34:55because you don't have
34:55a majority candidate
34:56he succeeded
34:57unite everyone
34:58surrounding João Dória
34:59an illustrious unknown
35:00from your electoral point of view
35:01for him to lose
35:02in the first round
35:03It's not that he didn't go.
35:04for the second
35:04the election was decided
35:05in the first round
35:06the size of fear
35:07the staff had
35:08for him to be re-elected
35:08and never again
35:09he succeeded
35:10revive his career
35:11here
35:11never again
35:12that
35:12and the absence of that voter
35:14from the city of São Paulo
35:15for the PT to have a chance.
35:16to go to the second round
35:17It's something like that.
35:19determinant
35:20It's something that weighs heavily.
35:21because without that voter
35:22The PT (Workers' Party) will not make it to the second round.
35:24and it's not going
35:25by Real Time Big Data
35:26Tarcísio has 53%.
35:28of voting intentions
35:28Haddad has 38%.
35:29is voting the votes
35:30from the capital
35:31and it's not getting the votes
35:31from the capital
35:32why?
35:32Vera Lúcia from PSTU
35:33has less than one
35:34Carlos Machado of the PCB
35:35has less than one
35:35Vivian Mendes from UP
35:37has less than one
35:38Isadora Dias from PCO
35:39has less than one
35:40all other candidates
35:41added together
35:41They barely get to one
35:42i.e.
35:42here
35:43the dwarfs
35:44They are all left-wing.
35:45and add up to 5%
35:46of voting intentions
35:46added to the 38%
35:48by Haddad
35:48reaches 43%
35:50did you understand?
35:51We are 10 percentage points short.
35:52here
35:52and the voter
35:53from São Paulo
35:54who doesn't want Haddad
35:55It's not the voter.
35:56ideological
35:57is the pendulum voter
35:58It's that voter.
35:58who now votes with the left
35:59now votes with the right.
36:00But what is Haddad like?
36:01don't vote with the left
36:02simple as that
36:02Ah, but that would be a burden.
36:04what percentage
36:04of the total votes?
36:054.5%
36:06in the state scenario
36:08because São Paulo
36:08if my memory serves me right, yes
36:10the city of São Paulo
36:11if my memory serves me right, yes
36:12a room
36:13of the total number of voters
36:14of the state
36:14you gain 10 percentage points
36:15votes here
36:16it means more or less
36:172.5, 3%
36:18that would be taken
36:20by Tarcísio
36:20i.e.
36:21It would be a binary vote.
36:22that comes out from one side
36:22and goes to the other one
36:24we could have
36:24a second round
36:25Oh, you're talking...
36:26It's ridiculous.
36:27another institute
36:27veritar
36:2855.3% in favor of Tarcísio
36:30the advantage is even greater
36:31data sheet
36:32that performs a sampling
36:33embiasada
36:34which favors the left
36:3549 against 29
36:36Paraná research
36:3749.7 versus 34.5
36:39Do you understand?
36:40in no institute
36:41with the S
36:4142 to 27
36:42in no institute
36:44Haddad will go to the second round.
36:45so much so that the PT
36:46He has already given orders.
36:47to reduce the budget
36:48campaign for Lula
36:49sorry
36:49campaign funds
36:50for Haddad
36:51look
36:51PT leadership
36:52cut resources
36:53campaign
36:53by Haddad
36:54to the government
36:54from São Paulo
36:55diary of power
36:56PT reduces resources
36:57for campaign
36:57in São Paulo
36:58PT
36:58on CNN
36:59PT reduces transfer
37:01for campaign
37:01by Haddad
37:02to the government
37:02from São Paulo
37:03channel
37:04Univerde
37:04on YouTube
37:04PT cuts funding.
37:06campaign
37:06by Haddad
37:07in São Paulo
37:07generating emissions
37:08and cutting in networks
37:09i.e.
37:10victory
37:11by Tarcísio
37:11This is a victory.
37:12almost guaranteed
37:13and one important thing
37:14to be said
37:14in the last election
37:15Lula
37:16did not win the election
37:17because of the Northeast
37:18Bolsonaro
37:18He had a million.
37:19more votes
37:19that in the previous election
37:20Bolsonaro lost
37:21in the triangle
37:22big
37:23Greater Belo Horizonte
37:24Greater Rio de Janeiro
37:26and Greater São Paulo
37:26i.e.
37:27the capitals
37:27and metropolitan areas
37:29of these three states
37:29Bolsonaro lost
37:30I think 4 million.
37:31votes here
37:32or 3 million votes
37:33or something like that
37:33I know that he has
37:34a smaller vote
37:35in these regions
37:35he got more votes
37:36throughout the rest of Brazil
37:37in these three regions
37:38metropolitan
37:38he received fewer votes
37:39It's logical.
37:40in the cities that are
37:41in the middle of this triangle
37:43it seems
37:43This will not happen.
37:44Oh, what are you talking about?
37:45It's ridiculous.
37:45it will be?
37:46Let's see here.
37:46the campaign for the Senate
37:48Senate
37:49Look at this interesting thing!
37:50Real-Time Big Data
37:51We have two counts.
37:52we have two surveys
37:53with a week's difference
37:54in the oldest
37:55Simone Tebbit
37:56appeared at 17
37:58tied
37:58with André do Prado
37:59from PL with 17
38:00and a technical draw
38:02Guilherme Derrite
38:03from the PP with 19
38:04Marina Silva
38:05from the Network
38:05appears at the limit
38:07appears at the limit
38:08margin of error
38:08with Simone Tebbit
38:09and André do Prado
38:10in the latest survey
38:11which came out on September 19th
38:12Friday
38:13Simone Tebbit
38:14maintained
38:14kept the 17
38:15Marina Silva
38:16kept the 14
38:17but André do Prado
38:18It rose one percentage point.
38:19It went to 18.
38:20Guilherme Derrite
38:21from PP
38:21It went up to 20
38:22But what happened?
38:23the vote
38:24by Ricardo Salles
38:25which is from the new party
38:27which is a party
38:27See you further to the right.
38:28that the PL
38:28fell 1%
38:29then he lost
38:301, something
38:31percent of the votes
38:32who migrated to André do Prado
38:33and Guilherme Derrite
38:34It's the useful vote.
38:34then what happens
38:35these two rounded it off
38:36one percentage point
38:37up
38:37Ah, but what about Datafolha?
38:38who does the showing
38:40biased
38:41Simone Tebbit
38:42with 13
38:42Marina Silva
38:43with 13
38:43André do Prado
38:44with 11
38:44Guilherme Derrite
38:45with 10
38:45Ricardo Salles
38:46with 5
38:46Do you understand?
38:47the 4 times placed
38:48They are in a technical tie.
38:49the third place
38:50It's Ricardo Salles.
38:50of the new
38:50i.e.
38:51Useful voting here
38:52Salles
38:53for the other candidates
38:54it can happen
38:54Ah, Veritar Institute
38:55André do Prado
38:56and Guilherme Derrite
38:57in front
38:57beyond the margin of error
38:58about Simone Tebbit
38:59and Marina Silva
39:00Paraná research
39:01This was at the beginning of September.
39:02this research
39:03which was released on the 10th
39:04here is
39:06sum of 200%
39:07because there are two vacancies
39:08Simone Tebbit
39:0929.5
39:09Marina Silva
39:1030.4
39:11André do Prado
39:12from PL
39:1219.3
39:13Guilherme Derrite
39:1428.9
39:15Ricardo Salles
39:1616.4
39:17It must be leaving.
39:17for this week
39:18a survey from Paraná
39:19if you don't talk to me
39:20This week a
39:20must show
39:21dehydration
39:23by Ricardo Salles
39:24I think that way
39:251%
39:26since there is a vote
39:28more expressive here
39:28a track should come out
39:29of about 3
39:29and then it should be divided
39:31between André do Prado
39:32and Guilherme Derrite
39:33in this scenario
39:34Guilherme Derrite
39:34must enter
39:35must enter as
39:37like the second
39:39or who left
39:39all the way to first place.
39:40and André do Prado
39:41It remains unknown.
39:42but it can be
39:43that Simone Tebbitt
39:44and Marina Silva
39:44lose the vote
39:45because of history
39:46of the STF
39:47which went down very badly
39:48for Lula
39:48from there on the West Coast
39:49September 7th
39:50it should also be
39:51to leave one
39:51Simone Tebbitt
39:52I was 12
39:52Marina Silva
39:5314
39:54André do Prado
39:547
39:55Guilherme Derrite
39:5614
39:56and Ricardo Salles
39:573
39:58repair
39:58here from Marina Silva
39:59and Guilherme Derrite
40:00but at the time
40:01that you look at
40:01here in the image
40:02as research
40:03They are getting closer.
40:05election date
40:05the graph is getting
40:07more blue
40:07it's going faster
40:08towards
40:09to the PL candidates
40:10and from the PP
40:11What does this mean?
40:13It means that Lula
40:14There will be a vote.
40:15probably more wilted
40:16in this election
40:17than in the previous one
40:17And here it shows an error.
40:19sacrifice Haddad
40:20to try to do
40:21He's going to the second round.
40:24fail
40:24but Haddad
40:25would attract the vote
40:26PT's ideological
40:27that is spread
40:28between Simone Tebbitt
40:29Marina Silva
40:29Soninha Francine
40:32Geraldo Rufini
40:33between others
40:33He would bring that vote.
40:34ideological
40:35something that is not happening
40:36the PT people
40:37can't find it?
40:38the name of the PT
40:40to vote
40:40and doesn't want to know
40:41by Marina
40:42nor Simone
40:43i.e.
40:43with Haddad
40:44probably
40:44They would have a senator.
40:46guaranteed
40:46and would throw the problem
40:47for the lap
40:48by Flávio Bolsonaro
40:49of not having
40:49a senator
40:50of not having both
40:51Senators from the State of São Paulo
40:52which are fundamental
40:52to hunt
40:53a Supreme Court justice
40:54if you liked it
40:55from what has been said so far
40:56Please
40:57like
40:58comment
40:59share
40:59help me
41:00in the project
41:00from this channel