Portugal beat Norway 2–1, but did they really outplay them? We break down the tactics, possession and xG—and revisit Brazil’s painful loss to Haaland to see how luck and finishing changed everything. Watch before judging a game by the scoreline!
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#Football #Soccer #Portugal #Norway #Tactics
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0:00 - Why Portugal Beat Norway
0:47 - How Norway Builds Its Attacks
3:43 - Possession, Expected Goals, and Tactics
5:58 - The Goals That Changed the Story
6:50 - Haaland’s Finishing and Match Outcomes
8:26 - Portugal’s Early Goal and Norway’s Errors
9:25 - Why Results Don’t Tell the Whole Story
We're now available on Spotify! Listen now https://open.spotify.com/show/
Subscribe for more football analysis.
Comment what you liked most from the video!
#Football #Soccer #Portugal #Norway #Tactics
👉 This channel was created in collaboration with https://www.youtube.com/@futebolmaximo
0:00 - Why Portugal Beat Norway
0:47 - How Norway Builds Its Attacks
3:43 - Possession, Expected Goals, and Tactics
5:58 - The Goals That Changed the Story
6:50 - Haaland’s Finishing and Match Outcomes
8:26 - Portugal’s Early Goal and Norway’s Errors
9:25 - Why Results Don’t Tell the Whole Story
We're now available on Spotify! Listen now https://open.spotify.com/show/
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NewsTranscript
00:00I'm gonna have to be a bit mean in this video because I'm gonna have to bring back a terrible
00:04memory that's stuck in your head, Norway, to Brazil 1.
00:08The faithful game where Haaland ended the dream of the sixth title and Brazil finished the match with less possession
00:14than the Norwegians.
00:15But I'm doing this for a good reason.
00:17Portugal just beat Norway by exactly 2-1.
00:21And the numbers from this game really stand out.
00:24You know me. I'm the guy who does tactical analysis and likes to explain the reasons.
00:28Why did one team win? Why did the other team lose?
00:31But I'm not gonna lie to you.
00:32The reason the Portuguese won isn't complicated at all and it's much simpler than it seems.
00:37In this video, I'm going to show you the approach Jorge Jesus used to beat Norway in the Nations League.
00:42But before that, to make sure you'll understand, I need to show you some data.
00:46Come with me.
00:47A crucial starting point that we need to have to understand how Portugal managed to beat Norway
00:52is to really understand how Norway attacks and creates their plays.
00:57Because that's going to be decisive for how this game played out.
00:59Basically, the team was set up more or less like this, okay?
01:02It's a 4-3-3, but kind of with three defensive midfielders in quotes.
01:06Because Odegaard isn't really a defensive midfielder, but in the national team,
01:09he basically acts like one Haaland, Schelder, Schelderup.
01:13And here's the new thing.
01:14Compared to the team that faced Brazil, it was Sorlotti on the right, Nusa here on the left.
01:19And the team works more or less like this.
01:21I always like to say that for us to understand how a team plays,
01:24we need to understand what the main focus is, where this team wants to get to.
01:28And with Norway, it's very easy to say, right?
01:31Haaland is the focal point of this team.
01:33And they're going to try to use Haaland and exploit Haaland in every possible way.
01:36One of those ways is through long balls.
01:38Nijland, for example, used long balls a lot to look for Haaland in behind.
01:44And if he didn't win that first ball, he could put the ball up for grabs,
01:48either for Schelderup or for Nusa.
01:52So get closer and win that second ball, especially because the wingers will cut inside.
01:57Another mechanism has a lot to do with Portugal's defensive matchups,
02:00and this one is a bit more complicated, so I need you to pay attention here.
02:04Let's go.
02:05They used Ausner as the fullback who pushed forward, but not too much.
02:09And Rierson on the other side with the same role.
02:12And the build-up play basically worked like this, okay?
02:15We would usually see Gonçalo Ramos on one of the centerbacks.
02:19João Félix was matched up with Berg.
02:22The other Berg was a bit more advanced.
02:24And Palin was the one taking care of him really close to the other one here.
02:28And Odegaard was basically being marked by João Neves.
02:32But some variations happened when Portugal wanted to press a little higher.
02:36Gonçalo Ramos would usually go to the other centerback,
02:39or he would stay here, so to speak.
02:41João Félix would go, João Neves would cover,
02:45and Pedro Neto would come inside to cover.
02:48So if that happened, mainly because no one wanted to leave Odegaard free in this match,
02:52especially after the damage he caused to Brazil,
02:54Ausners would end up free on the wing,
02:56since Nuno Mendes and João Cancelo were taking care of the Norwegian wingers.
03:00And it's important to mention, when Norway didn't go for the long ball,
03:04they would usually try to use the fullbacks.
03:06In the first half, it was more Ausners,
03:08and in the second half, it was more Rierson,
03:11because they switched things up a bit.
03:13Odegaard switches sides, and this whole dynamic kind of changes,
03:16and the one who starts keeping an eye on him here is Conceição,
03:18and Jürsen ends up being Rierson.
03:21But to simplify, let's stick with the setup from the first half, right?
03:24Odegaard over here, and Pedro Neto following him during those moments of higher pressure.
03:28Ausners would carry the ball.
03:30Pass it to Scheldrup.
03:32Nuno Mendes would get caught off guard.
03:34The ball would go to him again.
03:35Ball to the byline.
03:37And then it was time to cross the ball into the box, to look for Haaland.
03:40And as a Brazilian, you know the damage he's capable of causing.
03:43The problem is that when I say Jorge Jesus' solution wasn't that complex,
03:48you'll understand when we look at the numbers from the game.
03:51Jorge, these are the stats from Brazil and Norway.
03:54Our loss in the World Cup round of 16.
03:56The shots.
03:57And what really stands out is this, right?
04:00Possession.
04:0066% for Norway and 34% for Brazil.
04:03This made headlines in Brazil.
04:05And a lot of people even started calling for Ancelotti to be fired because of it.
04:09But those who are already subscribed to our channel know our opinion about this.
04:12To win a game, you don't have to be locked into the idea that you have to have possession.
04:18Of course, what's interesting is having a variety of strategies.
04:21A range of possibilities to bother your opponent.
04:23But you can definitely win a match against Norway with less possession,
04:27as long as that's part of your plan.
04:29And look, what an interesting coincidence.
04:32These are the numbers for Norway and Portugal.
04:34And Norway finished the game with 62% possession.
04:38And Portugal with 38%.
04:40Just to remind you, Portugal with 38%.
04:43Brazil with 34%.
04:44Very close numbers.
04:46And the same goes for expected goals.
04:48Okay?
04:48One little match.
04:49Here's something interesting.
04:50Brazil and Norway.
04:51Brazil finished the game with 2.61.
04:54Expected goals.
04:55And here you'll easily remember, right?
04:57Neymar's penalty.
04:58The missed chance by Henrik.
05:00And also the missed penalty by Bruno Guimarães.
05:032.61 against only 1.05.
05:06When we look at the other game, the team with more expected goals was Norway.
05:11Even though Portugal won 2.52 expected goals for Norway and 1.04 for Portugal.
05:18It's like the roles were a little bit reversed, right?
05:20Portugal had the same possession as Brazil, but the team that created more chances was Norway.
05:25And that basically explains how this game played out.
05:28Portugal really stuck to the idea of pressing a little higher than Brazil did.
05:33And as you saw, that even ended up generating more expected goals for Norway.
05:37In other words, Ancelotti's strategy of holding the lines back a little more actually made a lot of sense.
05:43Norway lost the possibility of playing long balls since Brazil was more compact.
05:47And the fullbacks hardly ever had space.
05:50In fact, when they did, that's when Haaland opened the scoring, if you remember that game well.
05:54On the other hand, the numbers are going to shake up the story of this game once again.
05:59Take a look at this.
06:00Portugal opens the scoring with a shot from outside the box by João Félix at around the 16th or 17th
06:05minute
06:05with a 5% chance of scoring, which with the quality of the strike increased to 60%.
06:12More chance of being a goal than not being a goal.
06:15Do you know what happened around the 15th minute of the first half?
06:18That was exactly the moment when Bruno Guimarães missed Brazil's penalty.
06:23Let's even pull up this shot from Bruno here.
06:26And Bruno Guimarães takes the penalty in the 14th minute.
06:29Three minutes before João Félix's 79% chance of a goal.
06:34He brings it down to 63% still with a better chance than João Félix's shot,
06:38but he ends up missing.
06:40And that completely changes how the game played out.
06:43Even though Jorge Jesus didn't have a brilliant strategy,
06:46we can say that history is unfortunately written by the winners.
06:50If you win a match, your strategy is flawless,
06:53and Jorge Jesus went to the press conference to say that he and Zidane
06:56were the only debut coaches to win at the start of this cycle.
06:59On the other hand, you can have a very well-structured strategy like Brazil did.
07:04You give Norway few chances, or at least few clear chances,
07:08and then you don't count on a bad day and Haaland ends up scoring two goals.
07:12And Haaland's numbers in these games are also quite interesting.
07:15Actually, pretty much the opposite, we could say.
07:16Take a look at this.
07:17Haaland was really inspired against the national team.
07:20He took four shots, 0.47 expected goals, I mean XG,
07:24and he improved the quality of that, raising it to 1.14.
07:29In other words, even with 1.14, he ended up scoring two goals,
07:33it was a really inspired day for Haaland, with some unlikely finishes.
07:36We could even say that this one from outside the box here was much more unlikely,
07:40and it ended up resulting in two goals that knocked Brazil out.
07:43Now take a look at what he did against Portugal.
07:45There were eight shots, more than there were against Brazil.
07:471.7 expected goals, more than there were against Brazil.
07:52And 2.88 expected goals on target, more than there were against Brazil.
07:56In this game, on the other hand, he wasn't as inspired.
08:00He scored his 51st goal on a rebound from a free kick,
08:03and missed other clear chances inside the six-yard box.
08:06This one here had a 35% chance of scoring,
08:09this other one had 46%,
08:11and this one here had 19%,
08:13but he ended up finishing poorly.
08:15Another one where he finishes with a 64% chance in the 13th minute,
08:18and this other one with 2% plus,
08:21a shot from far away with a 3% chance of scoring.
08:23In other words, history is written by the winners.
08:26With reasonably similar strategies,
08:29maybe with a bit more pressure from Portugal,
08:31and maybe the luck of Joao Felix's unlikely shot going in at 17 minutes,
08:35that completely changed the game.
08:37Portugal was able to play much more comfortably,
08:40drop deeper,
08:41and look a bit more to attack in transition,
08:43and Portugal's second goal is almost a joke.
08:46If we remember well, Niland,
08:48Norway's goalkeeper was in inspired form in this match.
08:50It's no wonder he got a 7.9 rating here on 365 scores.
08:54There were four saves plus a save penalty,
08:56which resulted in 0.76 expected goals prevented.
09:00Against Portugal, it was a less inspired night.
09:034.9 rating and 0.92.
09:060.92 fewer goals prevented.
09:09In other words,
09:10he conceded 0.92 goals.
09:120.92 goals more than what was expected of him.
09:15And if we look at the second goal,
09:17it's a joke.
09:17He tries to play out from the back
09:19and gives the ball right to Gonzalo Ramos,
09:21who, with maybe an even less clear chance than Hendricks,
09:24ends up chipping the goalkeeper and scoring.
09:26What do I want you to take away from this video?
09:28Soccer is an extremely complex game,
09:30and we can't judge a strategy as good or bad
09:33based solely on the result.
09:36Brazil had less possession than Portugal,
09:38but conceded fewer expected goals.
09:40The problem is,
09:40they ran into Holland and Nieland on inspired form.
09:43Portugal, on the other hand,
09:44ended up scoring quite early.
09:46They had less possession,
09:48but gave up a lot of chances,
09:49and on a night when Holland wasn't inspired,
09:52they ended up seeing the Norwegian waste
09:54some good opportunities.
09:55Come with us.
09:56Don't fall for the simplistic talk
09:58that the result dictates how the game went.
09:59Of course, we're disappointed
10:01with the Brazilian national team.
10:02Maybe if Bruno Guimaraes,
10:04Alisson and Hendricks
10:06had been a little more inspired
10:07or had felt a little less pressure,
10:09and obviously it's very hard
10:10to compare the Nations League
10:11with the World Cup.
10:12Maybe Brazil would have come out
10:14as the winner of that game.
10:15We're disappointed,
10:16but we can't be unfair
10:17to the point of comparing
10:18Jorge Jesus' work.
10:19Who obviously will beat his chest
10:21and say it's the best job
10:22in world football?
10:23I have several criticisms of Ancelotti,
10:26several suggestions for improvement,
10:28but Jorge Jesus isn't that
10:29unbeatable coach either.
10:30And if you like this idea
10:31of looking at the game in more depth,
10:33I invite you to check out our app
10:35that has a fantasy game inside.
10:36The link is here in the description
10:37or pinned in the comments.
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