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Irán vive un creciente malestar social por la crisis económica, la pérdida de poder adquisitivo y la represión, pero el miedo aún frena las protestas masivas. Según el investigador Bani Sabati, hace falta una señal clara de apoyo desde el exterior para que la población se lance a las calles, algo que las declaraciones contradictorias de Trump no terminan de ofrecer. Mientras tanto, la fuga de ingenieros y médicos continúa y la oposición en el exilio sigue sin un plan definido. En el plano militar, un asesor de Jamenei advierte que el conflicto podría extenderse hasta el océano Índico si Washington o Israel atacan de nuevo. ¿Está Irán al borde de un estallido? Te lo contamos.

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00:00In Iran, discontent with the government is growing amid an economic crisis, falling incomes, and
00:07constant repression.
00:09However, fear is currently keeping a large part of the population off the streets and away from a
00:16mass mobilization.
00:17Bani Sabati, a researcher specializing in Iran, stated that a huge amount of negative energy has accumulated in the country against
00:27the regime.
00:27In his opinion, for large-scale protests to erupt, a clear sign of support for the demonstrations is needed.
00:35against the current government.
00:37The economic situation remains one of the main sources of tension.
00:42According to data cited by Sabati, Iran's GDP has contracted by 10% and wages have fallen by 10%.
00:49Teachers' salaries have fallen from about $200 to about $70.
00:53Many Iranians are trying to leave the country, including across the land border with Türkiye.
01:00At the same time, the authorities continue to put pressure on the population.
01:04In central and southern Tehran, security forces detain women who are not wearing the hijab.
01:11while in the affluent neighborhoods of the north, that behavior is tolerated.
01:15Sabati asserted that this easing of restrictions benefits the regime and is used for propaganda purposes.
01:22The uncertainty of the population is aggravated by the contradictory statements of the President of the United States, Donald Trump.
01:30First he talks about a possible collapse of the regime, and then he moves on to negotiations and the hope of reaching an agreement.
01:36an agreement.
01:37In the absence of a clear signal, Iranians doubt whether they will receive support in the event of mass protests.
01:43Amid the crisis, qualified professionals, including engineers and doctors, continue to leave the country.
01:50Reza Pahlavi and other Iranian opposition figures in exile discuss the future of the country.
01:56But they have not yet formulated a clear plan to overthrow the current regime.
02:01According to Yahya Rahim Safavi, advisor to Supreme Leader Mohtaba Khamenei,
02:06Iran could expand the geography of the current military conflict if the United States or Israel attack the country again.
02:13According to the advisor, the confrontation has already spread beyond the usual combat zone.
02:19He noted that the conflict has spread from the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz into the Red Sea,
02:25and that a new escalation could open another front.
02:29Safavi admitted that, with further military action, the front could extend to the Indian Ocean and possibly even further.
02:37The front will widen even further, reaching the Indian Ocean and even beyond, the advisor stated.

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