00:00Wendy, we've been through enough of these leadership summits and preparatory talks to know that, you know, real deliverables, expectations
00:07of those should always be managed to the lower side going into these sort of events.
00:12But it seems like this time around, we're lowering our expectations more than ever.
00:19Absolutely. Look, there hasn't been a lot of time for preparatory work where, you know, a lot of these over
00:28a lot of these decisions are made and issues are teed up for the leaders.
00:32Both Besson and Greer have been distracted working on a lot of other issues.
00:37But also, let's be honest, we're at a point in our relationship with China where big deliverables are just no
00:43longer possible.
00:44And we're talking about managing the relationship and keeping it stable, but not improving and strengthening it.
00:52I think both sides are being more realistic.
00:55I suppose the question is whether that's the best case scenario, given that we know that there are inherent, possibly
01:01unresolvable conflicts in this relationship, right?
01:05This is the big competitive relationship of our time, particularly when it comes to now added flashpoints since May, AI
01:13in particular.
01:14Does it surprise you that we're not going to be making much substantive progress?
01:21Well, not really.
01:23I think Trump really tried that during his first term with the phase one agreement.
01:27And after putting a year of intense negotiations, the outcomes were pretty marginal.
01:32And so, again, I think both sides are being realistic.
01:35We both need to learn how to live with each other and how to avoid taking steps that are going
01:42to anger the other to the point where things blow up.
01:46So, stabilisation and management is where we're at.
01:49And again, I think that's kind of the best we can do, at least for the time being.
01:56Do you think that's enough when it comes to some of these middle nations that obviously are very closely watching
02:02the stability in this relationship?
02:06Well, I think they very much welcome that stability because they don't want to be having to choose between China
02:12or the U.S.
02:13So, they welcome warmer relations between the U.S. and China, particularly between the two leaders.
02:20And let's not underestimate, leader-to-leader engagement in this relationship is extremely important.
02:26And so, the leaders will meet tomorrow, but then they're planning to meet two more times just this year.
02:33And having that type of exchange, I think, will contribute to a more stable relationship.
02:40But that doesn't mean they're not going to be flashpoints.
02:43It doesn't mean we're happy with China's implementation of the trade truce that was reached a year ago.
02:49In fact, Secretary Besson just announced only a two-month extension of the trade truce,
02:55which is a way, way shorter time than China had hoped for.
03:00China wanted to extend that truce until the end of Trump's term.
03:05And by keeping the extension short, I think the U.S. is signaling that we're not happy with,
03:11in particular, with the rare earth situation, where we're not getting the amount of exports that we had expected.
03:18And we're also not seeing the level of agriculture purchases, frankly, that China had agreed to make just six months
03:25ago.
03:28I suppose that timing could also speak to what a different situation the administration might find itself in,
03:34and different priorities post the midterms as well.
03:37Right, Wendy, we are just getting some more details in terms of when we might hear some more.
03:41President Trump and Xi will be speaking at the state dinner at 7.55 on Thursday.
03:45Their bilat begins at 11.30 a.m. on Thursday.
03:49And they're expected to deliver remarks at 10.15 a.m. Eastern time on Thursday as well.
03:55So that greeting and the remarks, as well as the state dinner,
03:59we have a little bit more of a better indication of the schedule going forward.
04:04The imagery has been quite interesting, right?
04:07When we had the May visit, President Xi and Peng Yuan, the First Lady,
04:11didn't meet President Trump on the tarmac.
04:13That's not the case when it comes to this D.C. visit.
04:16There's obviously high importance being placed on this visit.
04:20Is it more to do with President Trump wanting to, I guess,
04:24show the importance of his personal relationship with presidency
04:27more than perhaps what it says about the ability for these two nations,
04:31you know, conflicting policies to be able to reach consensus?
04:36Well, absolutely.
04:37This visit is very, very high in atmospherics,
04:41and I would say very modest with respect to substantive outcomes.
04:45We're seeing, you know, there'll be a big state dinner.
04:49We're going to see, you know, a big welcome ceremony at the White House tomorrow.
04:54We saw the president greet President Xi on the tarmac.
04:57And so a lot of symbolism, a lot of pomp and circumstance.
05:04But I also think, look, they're going to be meeting.
05:06There's some important issues on the table.
05:09A lot's going on in the world.
05:11We, you know, there's so many flashpoints,
05:15and Chinese cooperation is going to be important going forward.
05:20And so I think they'll have some frank discussions,
05:23even if the substantive outcomes are light this time around.
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