00:00Recently, there have been continued signs of war preparations all across Europe.
00:03It's not just one or two countries doing this. Almost every country is involved.
00:06Today, let's take a closer look at this topic. First, let's see which countries are preparing
00:10for war. Switzerland, France, Germany, Poland, the United Kingdom, Finland, Sweden, Slovakia,
00:15Lithuania, Estonia, and Latvia. These are the countries that have officially announced war
00:19preparedness plans, taken actions to implement them, or whose leaders have stated that they
00:22need to prepare for war. As you can see, it's not just the Baltic states or Poland which are facing
00:27immediate security threats from Russia, but also countries in the rear like France, Germany,
00:31and the United Kingdom that are showing signs of preparing for war. But the bigger problem is that
00:34all these signals of war preparation have occurred within just the past one or two weeks. It seems
00:38like some piece of intelligence has been shared among all the European countries. First, let's take
00:41a look at what preparations these countries are making. Let's start with Germany. Germany has urged
00:44all its citizens to participate in national defense. This was stated by the Germany's top military
00:48commander, Karsten Breuer. He said that if a large-scale conflict breaks out, the military alone will not
00:53be enough, and that the entire society and industry must contribute to national defense.
00:56The German military is also urging the stockpiling of emergency food and medical supplies, checking
01:00hospital readiness, and discussing crisis management education in schools. They are quickly moving
01:03toward an all-out security posture that includes both civilians and the military. Above all, it seems
01:08that hospitals need to be given special attention. Germany is preparing for the possibility that in
01:12the event of a large-scale war, about 1,000 injured people could arrive in the country each day.
01:16Currently, there are only five military hospitals in Germany. If so many injured people suddenly arrive,
01:20they won't be able to handle it, so they've made plans to convert civilian hospitals for military use.
01:24This shows that both the civilian and military sectors are preparing for war.
01:27Next is the United Kingdom. In the case of the United Kingdom, they have even advised citizens
01:31to stockpile food and water in preparation for the possibility of war or other serious situations.
01:36And since 2004, the United Kingdom had not made any war plans, but now they have started making war
01:40plans again and have begun to prepare for war in earnest. Above all, it has been assessed that they are
01:44taking various preparatory steps to counter Russia's hybrid warfare. And now, France. President Macron of France
01:50said that in the past few weeks, they have faced threats of hybrid attacks from Russia. He stated
01:54that he has instructed the government to come up with plans to protect critical infrastructure from
01:58drone and cyber attacks and to safeguard the most sensitive defense industry and technology facilities.
02:03He also stated that they will respond to Russia's covert attacks. President Macron of France also said,
02:08we must unite in the face of this crisis.
02:10Poland is also preparing for the worst-case scenario, planning ways to evacuate residents quickly in the
02:14event of war or hybrid warfare. They are looking into assembly points, routes and means of
02:18transportation, and are currently selecting priority evacuees. They have also advised Polish residents
02:23to prepare essential supplies that can last for 72 hours. Also, President Karo Naborczyki of Poland
02:29delivered a strong message saying that while we may lose territory, we are a people who will never
02:33lose our spirit. He emphasized that although we might cede land, we will never give up our homeland.
02:38And Lithuania has also begun preparations to evacuate its residents to Poland in the event of war.
02:43Residents living near the Polish border will evacuate to Poland by land, while those living along the coast
02:48will use ships. For residents in the northern and western regions of Lithuania, the plan is to
02:53first gather everyone in the capital and then evacuate together all at once. And the goal is to
02:57start the evacuation in advance before war breaks out. Poland has also agreed to cooperate and help
03:02evacuate citizens from the three Baltic countries. Also, the Swedish and German armies have deployed 1,500
03:07troops to Gotland Island for Baltic training exercises. They quickly carried out drills to deploy
03:11troops to Gotland Island. This exercise was aimed at strengthening Gotland Island's defense
03:15capabilities and securing control over the Baltic region. It was a large-scale exercise conducted
03:20across land, sea, and air. Right now, something is happening simultaneously and continuously all
03:25across Europe. But what's even more shocking is that all of these events took place within just
03:29one week. However, the problem starts here. Right now, what Europe is most wary of is not an
03:33all-out war with Russia. In fact, what European countries have been reacting more sensitively to
03:37recently is the so-called hybrid warfare that takes place just below the level of full-scale war.
03:41From drone intrusions to cyber attacks, sabotage, arson, surveillance of military facilities,
03:45and attacks on key infrastructure, actions that are difficult to classify as traditional military
03:49attacks are continuously emerging as problems. In Europe, there are suspicions that many of these
03:54activities are connected to Russia. Russia denies these suspicions, but Europe's level of alertness
03:59is definitely rising. The reason why hybrid warfare is especially concerning is that even when an attack
04:03occurs, it's difficult to immediately determine that it is an act of war. Even if a drone enters the airspace,
04:08a fire breaks out at a specific facility, and some systems are paralyzed by a cyber attack. It's
04:12difficult to immediately determine whether this is a state-sponsored attack or just individual
04:16incidents. This is exactly why European countries are having difficulty responding.
04:21Poland's Prime Minister Donald Tusk has publicly warned that Russia may try to weaken NATO's response
04:25by making drone or rocket attacks against NATO countries look like accidents. The EU has also
04:29started to address this issue separately. Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission,
04:34recently suggested that Europe should prepare a so-called counter-hybrid playbook so that it can
04:39respond jointly to threats below the level of armed attack, such as sabotage, arson, and drone
04:43intrusion. The idea is to create a system where if one member state is subjected to a hybrid attack,
04:48other member states can urgently come together to discuss a joint response. Although this is a different
04:52approach from NATO's collective defense clause, it means that instead of individual countries responding
04:55separately as they have until now, hybrid threats will be treated as a security issue for all of Europe.
04:59Putting all these moves together, the scenario that Europe is currently wary of is quite specific.
05:02Rather than launching an all-out war with Europe right away, Russia is repeatedly engaging in
05:06actions that are difficult to define as military attacks, testing Europe's social infrastructure
05:10and security systems, and fragmenting individual countries' responses. Third, as concerns about
05:15this possibility grow, Europe has now begun to separately prepare how to respond in the event of
05:19a hybrid attack. They are not just preparing to respond after a war has started, but are building
05:23response systems from the stage where it is difficult to define the situation as a war. However,
05:27President Putin of Russia has stated that he has no plans to attack Europe at all. In contrast,
05:31Western media have reported that President Putin of Russia is preparing to expand the war against
05:36Ukraine, including attacks on Kyiv's allies within Europe. This raises a question. If Russia really
05:41wants to pressure Europe, why is it using this kind of hybrid approach instead of a large-scale military
05:45attack? One of the main reasons is that it can blur the line between attack and war. Cyber attacks,
05:51sabotage, disinformation operations, and activities like GPS jamming are difficult to immediately classify as
05:56acts of war even if they cause damage. It also takes time to identify who is behind the attack,
06:01and in the process of deciding how to respond, different countries can make different judgments.
06:04Especially in Europe, where many countries act together, this issue can become even more
06:08complicated. Even if one country determines that a particular incident is an attack by an external
06:12force, if other countries do not have the same level of evidence, it can take time to coordinate
06:16a joint response. When the perpetrator of the attack is not clearly identified, it is not easy to
06:21decide on a military response. If you respond strongly, you have to consider the possibility
06:24of escalation, but if you limit your response, it's also hard to rule out the possibility of
06:28additional attacks. On top of that, hybrid activities may not end with just a single incident.
06:32If each incident occurs in a different form, they could be handled as separate cases, but if multiple
06:36incidents keep recurring, the government, military, police, and intelligence agencies have to respond
06:41continuously. In that process, manpower and budget needed for defense must continue to be committed,
06:45and the national alert posture also has to be maintained for a long period.
06:49This is the reason why Europe has recently reacted sensitively to hybrid threats.
06:52Another important point is that it allows the attacking country to see how the targeted nation
06:57responds. They can observe at what level of attack the government responds, how quickly the defense
07:01systems of national agencies and key facilities operate, and how swiftly allied countries share
07:06information. For Europe, this situation itself inevitably becomes a security burden. So what Europe is
07:12preparing for now is not just how to fight a full-scale war with Russia. They're also preparing for
07:16situations where attacks that are hard to call a war are repeated, who will make the decisions
07:20at what level they will respond, and how multiple countries will act together. The main danger of
07:25hybrid warfare is not just the scale of the damage, but that it makes it difficult to respond at the
07:29boundary between attack and peace. However, the biggest weakness of hybrid warfare is that it can
07:34easily escalate into a full-scale war. If an unintended situation occurs, there's a very high chance it
07:39could lead to war. But looking at the current response of European countries, it seems like they are
07:43preparing for a full-scale war, including things like civilian evacuations. In places like the Baltic
07:49states, evacuation plans for residents are already being made. Therefore, we need to closely watch
07:53what actions Russia takes and how it conducts hybrid warfare. If things go wrong, it could really
07:57escalate into a full-scale war.
