00:00Well, again, you're asking me the question I can never answer, and that is what will Donald Trump
00:04do? Because nobody ever knows what Donald Trump will do. He is in Washington today during the
00:10meeting time. So will he tweet something out? We don't know. He has a speech tonight, a political
00:16speech down in North Carolina, and that would be another venue where he could vent if the Fed
00:22does what he doesn't want them to do and raises rates. Hey, Mike, should we worry about or care
00:30about whether there's any dissents at this meeting here in this decision? I think only if you had a
00:38significant number of dissents, and I would say that would be two or more. There's a possibility
00:43Mickey Bowman, who has been very loyal to Donald Trump, would dissent, although she might give the
00:49chairman deference in his first rate move. But everyone else on the committee is likely to do
00:55that, give the chair deference, and even if they think it's a close call, go along with a vote.
01:00So I really wouldn't expect more than one dissent. But if you did get more than one,
01:06it kind of depends on who it is. If it's Chris Waller, that's significant. If he goes along with
01:11it, then I imagine most of the rest of the committee would. But if you have a number of people
01:15saying
01:15that they felt strongly enough that they don't, that they did want to dissent, that could be a
01:22message of dissension in the Fed. I mean, to the election, Mike, an institution like this is always
01:30look at the data and then act after the fact. They have a lot of data coming up to help
01:36Camp Waller
01:37or Camp Warsh figure out what to do, right? Well, they've always got a lot of data coming out. They
01:44did
01:44just go through a period between the last meeting and this one where they had two jobs reports and
01:49they had two CPI reports and PPI reports. And they had one PCE, but economists can figure out what the
01:57next one will be. So they've got a lot of data. I think also they're looking forward and they're
02:02looking at what the oil curves are telling them, which is that prices are going to stay higher for
02:08longer, what diesel prices are telling them, because that has the potential to spill over
02:14into second round effects and inflation. So when they're looking forward, they can see problems
02:18coming as well. But the bottom line question I think that you're asking there is, are they going
02:27to signal another move? And I think that the chair will go out of his way to leave that question
02:34open, to not commit to either direction. So Paul, this will shock you. I was in a bar.
02:41Oh no. I was in a bar and somebody was talking about Michael McKee. Mike, when you're at the press
02:47conference, and of course, Michelle Smith, she's cruel and unusual. She's running the whole thing.
02:51You know he's going to get the last question. But do you go in with one question or do you
02:57have a
02:58piece of paper the person asked where you have like five or six questions waiting for Steve Leesman
03:04and others to steal your thunder? Everybody goes in with a page full of questions, maybe 20 or so,
03:12because you don't know when you're going to get called on. And then of course you end up junking most
03:18of them because you're reacting to what's happened. If you're not the first person asking the question,
03:23whatever the chair says could be a reason for another question, which is what was behind my
03:28question last time when I asked him what they were waiting for and why they were just, why he was
03:32just
03:32talking and not acting, because it became obvious halfway through that there wasn't much information
03:39being disseminated. So that can happen as well. And of course it is always the case that whatever your
03:45most brilliant question is, it will be asked by the person who is called on right before you are.
03:52Exactly. Real quickly, Mike, how's the credibility of this Fed chairman right here very early in his
03:57term? Well, he rebuilt it with his Jackson Hole speech and now it's a sort of question of do you
04:02walk the talk? And so I think he would take a big hit if they held today. But
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