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00:00Overnight, an Iranian commercial vessel was struck off an island in the Strait of Hormuz,
00:04killing one and wounding four others.
00:05State-run IRNA news agency quoted the island's governor as blaming a terrorist enemy.
00:11This is when it comes as a six-member bloc of Gulf states is weighing a meeting with
00:15Iranian officials next week to discuss the future of the Strait of Hormuz.
00:19For more, we're joined by Bloomberg White House correspondent Skylar Woodhouse
00:21and Bloomberg Mid-East reporter Dan Williams.
00:24Dan, I want to start with you.
00:25Can you just update us what we know about this strike in the Gulf overnight?
00:29And then is this meeting happening?
00:31Who is going?
00:32What do we know?
00:34Two strikes reported in recent hours, one against an Iranian vessel with one death,
00:41according to the Iranian reports, a second craft.
00:45Presumably, this is being blamed on the Iranian side.
00:48As we're talking over the weekend, as we've noted in previous discussions,
00:51the details do come out, but they tend to come out rather slowly.
00:55However, this continued bloodshed, the continued violence there has underscored efforts by the
01:02Iranians to pitch to Gulf Arab countries, including Gulf Arab countries with which it
01:08came to blows in the very recent past, passed the values of what it says is an emerging deal
01:14with Oman for a kind of property share of the Strait of Hormuz.
01:18And as you noted, tomorrow, Monday, there is a meeting of Gulf Arab foreign ministers in
01:24Muscat.
01:25It's not actually clear how many will attend.
01:29It has been formally announced.
01:30The Iranians say they plan to go there and unveil potentially this plan, this proposal,
01:36in hope of bringing those Arab foreign ministers on board.
01:39What we know is the Bahrainis, for one, are not planning to attend.
01:43They're still upset at the pain they suffered at the hands of Iran during the high points
01:49of this conflict, the height of hostilities.
01:51Meanwhile, the UAE has sent a senior royal, the crown prince of Abu Dhabi, to hold a meeting
01:57with the Iranian president this weekend on the sidelines of the BRICS summit in India.
02:03There is some kind of contact underway.
02:05I think it's clear the Iranians are trying to wish into reality a post-U.S., post-Trump
02:10reality in the Gulf to argue to fellow stakeholders in the region, it's time to deal with a new
02:15reality in which we, Iran, remain in some control of Hormuz.
02:19It's clear that the U.S. would almost certainly oppose this, as well as perhaps some of those
02:25Gulf Arab states.
02:26Skylar Woodhouse, you're traveling with the president.
02:28He's on this brief trip to Ireland, yes, to play some golf, but he's met with Irish leadership
02:32as well.
02:33I'm curious, as you've listened to his remarks, the former ones that he delivered at the ambassador's
02:37residence in Dublin, the less former ones as he's made his way from there to Shannon
02:41to his golf course, how much is this, the wider world intruding on the trip that he's
02:45taking right now?
02:46I think that there was a lot of conversation here in the States about him making this trip
02:49so close to the midterm elections.
02:51But when it comes to the issue of Iran and the Middle East and the path forward, the path
02:56to some resolution potentially, is it something that he's talked much about over the course
02:59of these last two days?
03:02Yeah, and look, this trip also comes just a few days after the Republican convention in
03:07Dallas, Texas.
03:08And now the president is here in Ireland to, you know, he did throw in some official meetings
03:15and met with the president of Ireland and the prime minister.
03:19But now he's off at his golf property, which is, you know, really where he wanted to go.
03:23But yesterday when speaking with reporters, he did say that, quote, the Houthis called
03:27us and they don't want to fight with us.
03:30You know, so obviously, you know, Iran and what's happening in the Middle East is still
03:34very top of mind.
03:35And just because, you know, the president is here to attend this golf tournament, to be
03:40at his family's property.
03:41You know, there's still obviously a lot of official business that he has to pay attention
03:46to and to monitor, especially as things are not slowing down and only continue to remain
03:53pretty volatile, especially as the midterm November's approach and the administration is trying to
04:00navigate those higher energy prices and cost of living for Americans.
04:04And that also was something that did come up.
04:07And here in Ireland, a reporter asked about higher prices even here in Ireland and sort
04:12of those ripple effects from what is happening in the Middle East.
04:16So, yeah, look, you know, the president, even though he can go to his course, it's still
04:19something he has to definitely make sure he's paying attention to.
04:22And speaking of higher prices, Dan, India, South Asian countries in particular, have been
04:27very hard hit by this war because they get so much of their oil through the strait.
04:31And we saw all these leaders in India for this BRICS statement.
04:35Iranian leaders were there in person, which is, we were talking yesterday, different from
04:39when the U.S. and a lot of times has had negotiations with them through intermediaries.
04:44And they did release a joint statement that kind of seems to call out the U.S. a little
04:49bit, saying we expressed serious concerns over deliberate attacks on civilian infrastructure
04:53and peaceful nuclear facilities.
04:56How frustrated are other Gulf countries with the U.S.?
05:00And is this summit and then maybe possibly this follow-off meeting in the Middle East kind
05:04of a reflection of that, of Gulf allies thinking they can't rely on the U.S. to bring this war
05:08to a close and they're going to have to handle it themselves?
05:10I think there's definitely frustration.
05:12I think there's definitely concern.
05:14Keep in mind that this BRICS summit coincides with some pretty astonishing gains by the Houthis
05:20of Yemen.
05:21This is an Iranian-aligned group.
05:24Some have argued it's an Iranian proxy in Yemen.
05:27They've effectively now taken over the Bab al-Mandab Strait.
05:32So this war, which began as a U.S.-Israeli war in Iran, evolved into a U.S.-Iran war over
05:38the Strait of Hormuz, now appears to be the war of two straits, further cutting down maritime
05:44traffic in that part of the world into the Red Sea, further driving up fuel prices.
05:49And as Schuyler alluded to, Trump is publicly talking about having received messages from
05:55the Houthis that they don't seek a war with the U.S.
05:57He may be trying to let the U.S. off.
05:59There have been reports that the Saudis have been asking the U.S. to intervene.
06:03It's worth remembering the United States did spend seven weeks pummeling the Houthis last
06:08year.
06:09Apparently, the Houthis weathered that well enough to regroup and conquer large swathes of
06:14Yemen and establish control of a second waterway, or at least a choke point to that second waterway.
06:21This would signal the war is not going well for the United States and its allies.
06:25And yes, I think it's understandable that Gulf Arabs will be weighing their next steps.
06:30They're not going to openly come out against Trump.
06:32It's not part of the political culture.
06:34However, and we should be able to get more clarity on this tomorrow, given the attendance,
06:39the prominence and the rhetoric of that foreign ministers' meeting that may take place in
06:45Muscat and whether the Iranians are engaged fully on their apparent proposal for some kind
06:50of share of Hormuz with Oman, I think that will really give us a sense of taking the temperature
06:56of the mood in that part of the world when it comes to the prospects for this war, a war
07:00which it's worth remembering, Trump said recently, he expects to end very soon after those midterm
07:06elections in November.
07:07Let's stick with shifting alliances, if we could.
07:10Europe preparing for a visit from Mark Carney, the prime minister of Canada.
07:13He's going to deliver a major speech, I believe, on the heels of one that Ursula von der Leyen,
07:17the president of the European Commission is going to deliver a State of the European Union
07:20address she's going to deliver.
07:21And there's a piece in the Wall Street Journal this morning, an exclusive to them,
07:25indicating that what Mark Carney has been advocating for with European allies is effectively
07:29associate membership, Canada getting associate membership in the European Union.
07:33Skylar, I know the president was asked about the status of the trade war between the U.S.
07:37and Canada.
07:38Let's take a listen to what he had to say.
07:40Canada has to treat our farmers better.
07:42They can't charge our farmers tariffs.
07:44They were charging our farmers 400 percent tariffs and many other things.
07:50So when those things go away and they're willing to get rid of all of them, you'll probably
07:56see a deal with Canada fairly soon.
07:58Skylar, level set for us a bit, if you would.
08:00The latest salvo in this war is the threat of these import restrictions, and we're in
08:04this window, this period, this three-week-long period before those are implemented.
08:08And I guess there's a school of thought here that in that vacuum, perhaps the U.S. and
08:12Canada will talk again.
08:13I guess my first question is, any indications that that's happening after those talks fell
08:17apart?
08:17And the second one is, just situate this in sort of what Mark Carney is trying to do vis-a
08:21-vis
08:21strategy, Europe, feeling kind of spurned by the U.S. and looking elsewhere, yes, to
08:25Europe, other places in the world here, for new trading relationships for Canada.
08:30Yeah, well, look, I mean, the U.S., especially, you know, since President Trump came back to
08:34office, you know, trade obviously has been a very key part of his agenda.
08:40And, you know, throughout the world, with Canada, with Mexico, it's been pretty, there's
08:47a lot of whiplash happening.
08:48And so for countries, even companies, to try and really know what it is they're working
08:53with as it relates to the U.S., it creates a lot of confusion.
08:56You might think one day you have this deal, this agreement, locked in, ready to go, and
09:01then the president sort of goes in a total opposite direction, which is sort of like, you know,
09:06what we're seeing here with Canada.
09:09And the president, you know, the relationship between the neighboring countries has definitely
09:14been rocky.
09:17But this is just sort of the latest that the president is doing to try and really enforce
09:23his tariff agenda.
09:25He wants to see this grand win for the U.S. in terms of trade.
09:31And in his mind, you know, it's sort of just, it's how he moves forward to try and get what
09:37he wants. And in a way, it's also creating a lot of disruption and having countries like
09:42Canada to look elsewhere and find other alliances if they can't depend on the U.S., especially
09:48as things are consistently being conflicted and there's new measures being put in place
09:53or they're walking things back.
09:54And for any leader, you know, whether you run a company or head of a country or even
09:59a city, it's definitely not ideal to have a partnership with another company or country
10:06where it's a constant back and forth and you never know what might be coming your way.
10:11And when it comes to partnerships and shifting alliances, Dan, we've only got about a minute,
10:15but I'm wondering, I want to go back to the meeting because you mentioned the Houthi and
10:18the uptick in conflict and targeting of these ships on the other side of that straight now
10:23in the Red Sea. Do we know if the Saudis are weighing, attending this meeting with Iran?
10:27And do we have any kind of insight as to why we're seeing this action from the Houthis now,
10:32whether that's from Iran or whether that's just because this is something the group is
10:36trying to take advantage of on their own?
10:38Well, very quickly, it's worth noting that the Iranian president took the time, as quoted
10:43by Al Jazeera, to say that Iran doesn't have a quarrel with Saudi Arabia. He's trying to
10:48distance Iran from the Houthis, who are disrupting Saudi interests. They are fighting Saudi-aligned
10:55forces in Yemen. It's worth remembering also this weekend, a drone strike from within Iraq,
11:00presumably from Iran-aligned Shia militias, paralyzed a major pipeline used by the Saudis
11:06to circumvent the closure of Hormuz when it comes to oil exports. The Saudis are really hurting. This is
11:13a very painful juncture for them. And despite that overture from the Iranians, it's still not clear
11:18whether they will attend. Why now? Well, the Iranians are suffering economic pain from the U.S.
11:24And I think they're trying to shift it to their proxies to strike at U.S. or U.S. allies
11:28through,
11:29should we say, a different flanking move.
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