Who Should Make the National Team Roster?

Ultimate Football

Think you could pick a better Brazil squad than Ancelotti? In this video, we let the stats speak and build a national team based on pure numbers! From surprise call-ups to unexpected snubs, see which players truly earn their spot. Dive in for some fantasy league tips and join our community! Subscribe for more football fun and comment below with your favorite stat-based pick! #football #soccer #brazil #stats #sports  👉 This channel was created in collaboration with https://www.youtube.com/@futebolmaximo  0:00 - Introduction and Selection Criteria 0:38 - Analyzing Goalkeepers 3:11 - Defenders and Stats-Based Picks 5:38 - Fantasy League and Defensive Data 7:39 - Full-Backs and Selection Breakdown 9:38 - Midfielders: Numbers and Versatility 11:49 - Attacking Midfielders and Wingers 14:57 - Forwards and Series Wrap-up  We're now available on Spotify! Listen now https://open.spotify.com/show/

Transcript

00:00Have you noticed that every call-up has people who don't like it because among the 26 call-ups,

00:04there are always two or three names they do not like? Don't worry, that's normal.

00:08In this first call-up by Ancelotti for the 2030 cycle, there were some names that surprised me.

00:14So what did I do? Did I make my own lineup?

00:16No, and that would be too obvious.

00:18Besides, it would end up being unfair because, for example,

00:21I don't watch the Dutch League to judge Mauro Jr., whom Ancelotti called up,

00:26so I took a different approach.

00:27I set some objective criteria and let the numbers pick the squad instead of Ancelotti.

00:32Here you'll see some names that might seem strange to you,

00:35but in the end, I'll tell you that I actually kind of liked it.

00:38Come with me and I'll show you. Let's go.

00:40Starting with the goalkeepers.

00:41Here I need to tell you a bit about some of the criteria I used to choose these players.

00:44I set indicators that are related to that position.

00:47After all, I'm not going to pick a goalkeeper based on the number of goals he scored

00:51or the percentage of passes he completed, right?

00:54Just like I'm not going to call up a striker just for the number of tackles.

00:56He also needs to score goals or at least have a good shot conversion rate.

01:00And of course, there's no point in picking someone who played three games in the season,

01:04tore it up, got injured, and then disappeared.

01:06No.

01:07Here I looked at the last two seasons, 2025 and 2026, when it comes to Brazilian football.

01:13And the 25-26 season and the very beginning of this 26-27 to choose the players who play abroad.

01:19And to be on this list, the criteria were strict.

01:21You need to have played at least 40% of the minutes.

01:24If you were injured for a long time, you're out.

01:27If you were a substitute for too long, you're out too.

01:30And the list of goalkeepers starts with a guy who barely missed being called up,

01:33which was John Vidor, former Botafogo goalkeeper, now at Nottingham Forest.

01:37Among all the goalkeepers called up, he's the one who was playing in the most competitive league.

01:42Which also shows that, for example, playing in a major European league is different from playing,

01:47for example, in the Portuguese league or in the Brazilian league.

01:50That helped boost his numbers a bit for the time he was a starter at Nottingham Forest last season.

01:55This season, he started on the bench.

01:57Still, the call-up is deserved.

01:59A 77% save rate and only 0.72 goals conceded per 90 minutes.

02:05But the one who really stood out in the stats is the guy that Ancelotti called up.

02:08Pedro Morisco from Curitiba is the guy who had the best efficiency among the three goalkeepers called up,

02:14even playing for Coxa in the Serie A of the Breslairel.

02:17An incredible save percentage of 82.1 and only 0.53 goals conceded.

02:25Besides his performance on crosses.

02:27Out of every 100 crosses into the box, he does well on 97 of them.

02:32He's a guy not just for the present, but for the future of the national team as well.

02:36And Carleto saw that clearly.

02:37I really like Otavio from Cruzeiro.

02:39And I even made a video here on the channel breaking down why Otavio deserved to be called up.

02:43But when it comes to the numbers, he ended up being left out.

02:46And the one who was called up was the questionable Carlos Miguel from Palmeiras.

02:50Maybe this shows a bit of the flaws in calling someone up just based on numbers.

02:53For example, he was a guy who had inflated numbers because he had the largest sample size among the other

02:58goalkeepers.

02:59That's 4,841 minutes across 48 games.

03:03But his save percentage was actually good.

03:0679 ended up being even higher than John.

03:08Now moving on to the defense, we're really going to see a surprise.

03:11Were you already surprised by Carlos Miguel?

03:14There's a defender called up here that I'm sure you weren't expecting.

03:16To start off the list, I'm going to begin with a familiar name who almost always shows up in this

03:21series of call-ups according to the numbers, which is Leo Ortiz.

03:24For this call-up, I didn't just consider defensive indicators, but also offensive ones.

03:28Leo, for example, has 92.4% of accurate passes.

03:32And they're not just sideways or backward passes that don't help the team move forward.

03:35On average per minute atch, he makes 15 progressive passes, passes that really help Flamengo move forward on the field.

03:42And for a Brazilian national team that doesn't have many creative midfielders, having defenders who know how to play, or

03:48as Flamengo fans like to say, the backline's number 10 can help Brazil reach the attacking third.

03:52In a more defensive aspect, Fabrizio Bruno from Cruzeiro was the other one called up.

03:57Just like Carlos Miguel, he also has the largest sample size, but here among the defenders, with over 5,000

04:03minutes in 53 games analyzed.

04:05And he's the leader when it comes to interceptions.

04:07That's 6.77 every 90 minutes.

04:10And obviously, we know Fabrizio Bruno well for his ability to defend the space in behind.

04:15If we want a team that plays proactively, that plays in the opponent's half, we also have to think about

04:20defenders who can recover well, defend the space behind the defense.

04:23And as he himself says, he's the fastest defender in Brazilian football.

04:26Well, the third spot in our defense, a very young guy, only 21 years old, but that was another good

04:31call by Carlito.

04:32It's important to say here, I also followed the Italian coach's criteria, so you won't see, for example, Marquinhos being

04:38called up.

04:39Here, I only included players under 30 years old, and I removed any subjective factors like leadership, confidence, and experience.

04:46Only the numbers decide.

04:48And obviously, this will bring some distortions.

04:50Gabriel Magalhães also doesn't appear on this list precisely because Arsenal is a team that defends very little, so his

04:56numbers end up being quite low.

04:58And the one who was called up from the Premier League instead of Magalhães was Jair Cunha, former Botafogo, former

05:02Santos, now at Nottingham Forest, and also chosen by Carlo Ancelotti.

05:06Out of the entire list of centerbacks analyzed, he was second in aerial duels one, with 77.8%.

05:13Besides having an outstanding number of interceptions with 6.3, notice that for centerbacks, I didn't analyze tackles as much,

05:20but rather interceptions, clearances, and duels one.

05:23Exactly because when a centerback is forced to tackle, it's probably already a pretty critical situation, and that's not what

05:29I'm considering for the Brazilian national team.

05:31Jair is a 21-year-old centerback with impressive stats in a top-tier league, showing that Ancelotti made the

05:37right choice here.

05:38And the fourth pick on the list, based exclusively on the stats, is William Machado, former Sierra player and centerback

05:44for Mirasol this season.

05:46I've been following William Machado for some time now. He's the centerback I really like.

05:50But to explain it to you, I'm going to use our Fantasy League, and you'll see it make sense.

05:54This database here is from our Fantasy League, which we at Football Maximo are creating.

05:59It's not a sponsorship, it's a fantasy league that the people in our community really asked for so we could

06:02play together, and we're building it step-by-step with the community.

06:05If you don't know it yet, the link is here in the description, and please, if you have any suggestions

06:09for improvement, leave them here in the comments, because our idea is really to build this together with you.

06:14Now look how interesting this is.

06:15Here I filtered all the players from the Brazilian Championship in the Fantasy, and selected only the defenders.

06:20It's important to mention here that it groups fullbacks and centerbacks in the same category, and then it will depend

06:26on your strategy when you set up your draft.

06:28Here I'm going to filter by defensive contributions, which are things like tackles, interceptions, and clearances.

06:33And look who's leading the list.

06:36William Machado, centerback from Mirasol, with 21 games, 1 goal, 1 assist, good passing accuracy, and 202 defensive contributions.

06:44He's the best centerback by this criterion here in our fantasy.

06:47Obviously, the strategy is yours to put together in the game.

06:50You might want, for example, to completely ignore defensive contributions and pick centerbacks who add value in other indicators.

06:57Then you add up your points to beat your direct opponents.

07:00But what caught my attention, not just with the contributions, is the percentage of accurate passes, 87.8%.

07:06When we apply the filter here, obviously there will be some players with only a few games, right?

07:10But with more than 10 games, you'll have a considerable sample size.

07:13Vitor Hugo from Atletico here with 94%.

07:16It's normal for centerbacks to have higher numbers.

07:18Here we'll see a lot of outliers.

07:20For example, Wallace, with only 5 games, isn't a reliable guy for you to pick.

07:23Or, for example, João Pedro Atioca.

07:26But here, highlighted, we still see, even scrolling down a bit, William Machado, 87.8% a number that makes

07:32sense and still makes him a good recommendation.

07:35Pick him in the draft, because he's a guy who's going to fly under everyone's radar.

07:38Moving on to the right-back position, there were two names that I really liked from Brazilian football, okay?

07:43The first is Mateusinho, also called up by Ancelotti.

07:45I really like Mateusinho, an overlapping right-back.

07:48He gets to the end line well, but he's also stood out for his defensive stats.

07:52He was a right-back with the best defensive dual success rate, 64%, and also put up good numbers in

07:58offensive contributions.

07:59He leads in the number of accurate crosses per 90 minutes, 2.1 per gram aim, and an expected assist,

08:050.21 per minute atch.

08:06In other words, he contributes on both fronts.

08:08And when we think about Ancelotti's style of play, where the right-back is usually the one making more overlapping

08:13runs,

08:13Mateusinho is definitely the right guy to be in this lineup.

08:16The other guy I'm sure nobody even thought about calling up is Guga from Fluminense.

08:20He's someone I really like, and I see that he's been getting more and more playing time over there.

08:24He is a guy with good defensive stats, averaging 5.7 interceptions per gram aim, and offensively he really stands

08:30out too.

08:31He's the most efficient when it comes to his contributions.

08:33He has the best success rate in completed dribbles, and the best success rate in accurate crosses.

08:38By this logic, the numbers show that he would at least be worth testing out over there.

08:42Now, for the left-back position, it was no surprise, and these are the two left-backs I would call

08:46up.

08:47Luciano Juba, for me, is an extremely versatile left-back who knows how to get to the end line, knows

08:52how to attack inside,

08:53can be a third center-back when needed, can play as a defensive midfielder when needed, and the numbers help

08:58confirm that.

08:59Precisely because of all this ability, he was the guy with the most expected assists, 0.29 per gram,

09:04aim as well as 0.67 chances created per minute atch.

09:07These are the best numbers among all the left-backs.

09:09The other guy is Kaike, someone who, personally, based on my qualitative analysis, I would also take to the national

09:15team.

09:15Former Cruzeiro player, 51 games in the sample, and who has just arrived at Como in Italy.

09:21In this pair of full-backs, he stands out in defensive stats, 64 success rate in duels, and also the

09:26best average for interceptions.

09:27You can see that, basically, in the call-up, I chose three goalkeepers, two right-backs, two left-backs, two

09:34right-sided center-backs, two left-sided center-backs,

09:37and now, from midfield forward, things are going to start getting a little messier.

09:41That's because there are some players who play in more than one position, or who have different characteristics.

09:45For example, there will be guys here who will be called up by the numbers, because they can be a

09:49holding midfielder, a box-to-box midfielder, or a more advanced midfielder.

09:52There are those who can be a defensive midfielder, an attacking midfielder, or a winger.

09:55So, you'll see that the game gets a little messy, but the names called up were very interesting, according to

10:00the numbers.

10:00For the defensive midfield spots, two well-known guys that I won't even talk much about, Lucas Paquetá and Bruno

10:05Guimaraes.

10:06Players who, as I said, play several roles, know how to build up play very well, have World Cup experience,

10:11but what really stood out were the numbers.

10:14Paquetá manages to combine 4.4 tackles, and he's also the defensive midfielder who delivers the most progressive passes, over

10:2012 per gram.

10:21As for Bruno Guimaraes, his numbers end up being a bit inflated by that factor I mentioned, that some leagues

10:26carry more weight than others.

10:28Defensively, the numbers didn't stand out, mainly because of the position he played at Newcastle last season, and the one

10:33he started playing at Arsenal this season.

10:34He wasn't really tested in that regard, but just like Paquetá, he has more than 12 progressive passes per gram,

10:39and deserves the call-up.

10:40For the other two defensive midfielders, I found the choice of names interesting, because they are players who complement each

10:46other and have different characteristics.

10:47The first of them was Everton Arauco from Flamengo, a player who, even without having full playing time, is not

10:53a definite starter for Flamengo.

10:55But he was used very well last season, and at the beginning of this season as well.

10:59He is the defensive midfielder who, according to the stats, provides the safest build-up.

11:03He manages to combine 10 progressive passes per gram with a 94% pass completion rate.

11:08He practically doesn't make mistakes.

11:10The other defensive midfielder is someone who has already appeared here on the channel before, and if you've been subscribed

11:15for a long time, you've already seen the call-up according to the stats and will remember him.

11:19You're subscribed, right?

11:20For God's sake, drop a like as well.

11:22This guy is Rubens, who is currently at Dynamo Moscow, but who used to play for Atletico Mineiro.

11:25He's the guy who brings more defensive stats to this defensive midfield group.

11:28He averages more than 4 tackles every 90 minutes and 5 interceptions per gram aim, in addition to delivering a

11:34reasonable average of accurate passes, 86%.

11:37Two more defensive midfielders, two slightly more advanced defensive midfielders, but when it comes to attacking midfielders, things get a

11:43little messy, okay?

11:44Here I chose 3 midfielders based on my analysis of the numbers, on what they showed me, to bring a

11:49bit more diversity.

11:50The first one I picked was Jon Jon.

11:51For me, one of the best players in last season's Brazilian Championship, and who is now at Zenit with numbers

11:56that really stand out.

11:56Of the midfielders called up, he's the one with the best dribbling success rate, 64%, as well as an average

12:02of 1.39 key passes per gram aim.

12:05Those are the passes that really create a dangerous chance, the kind that even make you get up from your

12:09seat.

12:09David Benfield is a guy that a lot of people ask for, and that I would have liked to see

12:13Ancelotti call up.

12:14If you notice, now the list starts to get a bit different from Ancelotti's list, and that's Matias Pereira, Cruzeiro's

12:18number 10.

12:19Out of the whole squad, he's the player with the highest expected assist, 0.51 per gram aim.

12:24It's like, you can expect an assist from Matias Pereira every two games.

12:28So, in a 60 game season, you would expect around 30 assists from him.

12:32Obviously, the pass he delivers will also depend on his teammate finishing it.

12:36Now, another guy who showed up in the stats and caught my attention was Romulo, a player from Nova Horizontino.

12:41He averages 1.9 key passes per gram, and 1.51 big chances created every 90 minutes.

12:47And why did he catch my attention?

12:49When choosing based on the numbers, I made some considerations, as I mentioned.

12:53The Premier League and La Liga, for example, carry more weight compared to the Brazilian Championship.

12:57And the Brazilian Serie B is weighted less than Serie A.

13:01In other words, Romulo, even playing in Serie B for Nova Horizontino, managed to stand out compared to many other

13:07top players.

13:08I don't know if you know.

13:09But here on Football Maximo, we started talking a lot about Serie B three years ago.

13:13Would it be cool to make a video talking about Romulo and how he's been playing there?

13:17If you like the idea, leave a comment here, and maybe it will become a topic for a video.

13:21Moving forward on the field, four wingers.

13:23And you'll see that they are players with very different characteristics, just like Ancelotti has been choosing.

13:28Two of them you already know.

13:30Ancelotti called them up, and they're shining in European football.

13:33Rafinha, who has stopped being a winger, but most of his minutes in the database are as a winger.

13:37That's why he was called up as a winger.

13:39But he has been a top-tier number nine in world football.

13:42And my guess, if you want to bet with me, is that he'll score more than 30 goals this season.

13:47Because he already started the season on the right foot.

13:49And the other one is Estevo, who, even though he hasn't had much playing time at Chelsea at the start

13:53of this season with Xabi Alonso, did very well last season.

13:56And his numbers for the national team also helped him rank a little higher.

13:59Rafinha, for example, in the youth teams, has an average of 0.7 goals per gram aim, which is excellent.

14:05And Estevo has an average of 0.33 assists per minute.

14:08It would be nice to see him doubling up there, either with Romulo, Matheus Pereira, or John John playing more

14:13inside and being more creative.

14:14The other wingers are more about finishing plays.

14:17There's a video about him here on the channel.

14:18Rai made an amazing video talking about Samuel Lino and how well he's been playing this season for Flamengo.

14:24Ancelotti called him up, and the numbers justify it.

14:26An average of 3.97 dribbles per gram aim with a 66.7% success rate.

14:32And besides scoring a lot of goals, he has an average of 0.62 expected assists, even better than Matheus

14:37Pereira.

14:38And the other guy who, even though he's in a less prominent league, that is one that's considered a bit

14:43lower level but still stood out, was Malcolm, the former Corinthians and former Barcelona player.

14:47Today he's playing in Saudi football, but he's a guy with interesting numbers, good average for shots, good average for

14:52goals scored.

14:52So, here we have some wingers who are a bit more creative, and some wingers who are a bit more

14:56offensive.

14:57And to wrap up the list, we get to our attack with 3 names you know, and for those already

15:01subscribed to the channel, there are guys who will show up once again in the call-up according to the

15:05numbers.

15:06This guy is Marcos Leonardo, formerly of Al-Hilal, who has now transferred to Ajax.

15:10He has an incredible average of 0.64 goals per gram aim, almost the same as Rafinha.

15:15But what really catches my attention is that he only has an average of 0.61 expected goals per minute.

15:21In other words, he scores more than what is expected of him, and that's pretty much what we're looking for

15:24in the national team.

15:25Now, that guy I know gets questioned a lot, but he was chosen here because of how efficient his finishing

15:30is, is Igor Tiago from Brentford, the second top scorer of the last Premier League season.

15:35He played more than 3,500 minutes in 40 matches analyzed and still managed to maintain an average of 56

15:41% finishing efficiency.

15:43In other words, most of the shots he takes are on target.

15:46Brazil also needs that, even though Igor Tiago's moments with the national team during the World Cup weren't that great.

15:51And to close the list, the third forward, also called up by Ancelotti, was Pedro, striker from Flamengo.

15:55A lot of people would obviously call up Pedro for his killer instinct, his goal-scoring instinct, and his average

16:00is really very good compared to Marcos Leonardo and Igor Tiago.

16:03He has the highest average goals per gram aim.

16:06And keep in mind that he plays in the Brazilian Championship, which is very competitive, even more competitive than the

16:10Saudi League where Marcos Leonardo used to play.

16:12An average of 0.66 goals per gram aim.

16:15Now, the game-changing factor that led to Pedro being chosen was the expected assists.

16:20For those who have been following since last season with Felipe Luiz, but even more so this season,

16:25since Leonardo Jardim arrived, Pedro has become an increasingly creative number nine who provides assists for his teammates.

16:31And the 0.33 expected assists per gram aim was what determined Pedro's call-up instead of João Pedro from

16:36Chelsea.

16:37Can you believe it?

16:38Now, of course, we can't be strict and look only at the numbers.

16:41It's an exercise we do to try to imagine who could be called up, or at least deserve a closer

16:46look from Ancelotti.

16:47The cycle is just starting now.

16:50There are several different names, and we're doing a really cool series here on the channel explaining why some players

16:55were called up.

16:56For example, I explained here why Otavio was called up, or I explained here why Gabriel Bontempo was chosen by

17:02Ancelotti.

17:03João talked a bit more about Pedro, and here are the highlights from the livestream we did during the call

17:07-up where we analyzed the entire list.

17:09Whichever one you choose here, you can't go wrong, and then go to the description to join our fantasy game.

17:14Thank you very much.

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