00:15we are explaining to you the big question what happens to America's military footprint in the
00:21Middle East if and a big if Trump manages to end the Iran war will the u.s. bring its
00:27men
00:27and machines home or will America simply change how it operates from the region because behind the
00:34scenes according to a CNN report citing six sources u.s. military and intelligence officials
00:40are already discussing possible cuts in personnel and facilities in the Middle East but here's the
00:48important part there is no official withdrawal order and that distinction matters the scale of
00:56the u.s. presence let's take a look at that think about it around 50,000 American troops are currently
01:03in the Middle East there are aircraft carriers guided missile destroyers intelligence personnel and a
01:10network of military facilities spread across America's regional security architecture and this
01:16is the legacy of 25 years of American intervention after 9-11 at one point during the Iraq invasion the
01:25number of US troops in the Middle East reached an estimated 250,000 even after the big drawdowns
01:33the American presence never disappeared it remained roughly between 30,000 and 60,000 troops for years
01:40so the question now is could Trump finally break that cycle and why the thinking is changing because there
01:49are three major reasons why Washington may be reconsidering its footprint number one vulnerability
01:56Iranian missiles and drones have exposed how vulnerable American bases in the region can be
02:02facilities in Bahrain and Qatar Saudi Arabia and Kuwait have been hit one US official even said that
02:09vulnerabilities were known but the attacks created a new sense of urgency number two cost if a base is damaged
02:18or destroyed
02:19Washington has to decide do we rebuild it or don't we US officials have indicated that rebuilding
02:26some installations could cost billions of dollars and the number three is Trump's own political instinct
02:33he has repeatedly presented reducing America's overseas military commitments as part of his political identity
02:41so what could a pullback actually look like this is where the story gets interesting a US pullback does not
02:50necessarily mean America abandoning the Middle East there are several options
02:55option number one fewer permanent troops America could reduce the number of troops permanently stationed in the Gulf countries
03:03Pentagon officials have privately discussed shifting more of the defense burden to regional partners
03:09option number two rotational forces instead of keeping large numbers of personnel and equipment permanently in the region keep them
03:18in the United States
03:19deploy them when a mission requires them then bring them back the model is already being considered for some sensitive
03:28military and intelligence missions
03:29option number three fewer bases harder bases the US could maintain important strategic locations but make them more difficult to
03:38attack that means hardened or even underground facilities
03:42because the report says the Pentagon is already examining options to better protect troops who remain or simply why not
03:52just leave because America has tried this before
03:56so Obama announced a drawdown from Afghanistan US combat troops also left Iraq in 2011 but when ISIS emerged American
04:05forces returned to Iran that is the problem
04:08Washington has repeatedly faced every time America tries to leave the Middle East another crisis pulls it back in and
04:17Iran makes that
04:18equation even more complicated the US still needs the region for military access intelligence shipping routes and deterrence
04:26So a complete American exit could create a vacuum and Washington knows vacuums in the Middle East rarely remain empty
04:34for long
04:34So the big question will Trump pull American troops and military assets out of the Middle East possibly but don't
04:44call it a withdrawal yet
04:45The more likely immediate scenario is a smaller more flexible American footprint fewer permanent personnel more regional responsibility more
04:55more rotational deployments and potentially fewer vulnerable bases
05:00The Pentagon is still expected to maintain some large permanent bases in the region and that leaves us with the
05:08bigger question
05:09Is America finally leaving the Middle East or is Washington simply learning to stay there with fewer men fewer machines
05:18and much smaller footprint?
05:20That may be Trump's next big foreign policy test
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