00:00Now, here's the interesting thing, though.
00:01I'm not in on this Miami team relative to everyone else.
00:06I actually find their win total to be shocking.
00:12I love their under 10.5.
00:16And I think it's one of the easier win total cases to make I've ever seen.
00:23Now, the starting point is believing they will lose on November 7th at Notre Dame.
00:30Which I 100% believe.
00:32They played last year.
00:35Week 1.
00:36Great game.
00:38Miami win on the field goal.
00:40If those teams played, if they met in the playoffs, okay?
00:45Notre Dame would have been the favorite.
00:47Notre Dame got much better as the season went on.
00:50Notre Dame are better this season than they were last season.
00:54This is where I seem to be on an island.
00:56Miami are not.
00:58Miami is not better.
01:00Their defense is very clearly took a step back with not one but two first-round draft
01:05picks off the edge in Mesidor and Bain.
01:08And Bain.
01:09This is not a typical Mario Cristobal offensive line.
01:12It's not awful.
01:13It's not special.
01:14They're usually awesome.
01:15Top five nationally ranked.
01:17It's not that.
01:18Darian Mensah is going to have some monster games.
01:23If they let him, he'll combine for 700 yards, no problem, against Florida A&M and Central Michigan.
01:32No problem.
01:33He'll have 300-yard games in ACC play.
01:37Carson Beck has significantly more pedigree than Darian Mensah.
01:42Significantly more.
01:44Like, Beck's being a little bit undersold in all of this Mensah hype.
01:48So, and the game's in Notre Dame, by the way.
01:51Like, it's in South Bend.
01:52So, if they lose to Notre Dame, most people would say, okay, well, find me another loss.
01:57I don't have to find it.
01:59Cristobal will.
02:00He's never not been upset.
02:03He gets upset everywhere he coaches.
02:06Last year, to put in this, last season, they played in the National Championship game and still lost two ACC
02:16games.
02:16That's how talented they were last year.
02:19They beat Notre Dame last year, and they still found a way.
02:23And, by the way, one of them was at home to Louisville.
02:26Do not tell me that Mario Cristobal is all of a sudden upset proof.
02:31I think they lose at Clemson.
02:33I actually think they lose multiple ACC games, because that's really who Mario Cristobal is, Craig.
02:42I don't know if that sounds unfair, but that's, his track record suggests there's no chance they're an 11-1
02:50regular season team.
02:52Well, he, I think, for the first time last year, sort of bounced on the variance.
03:01I'll tell you, you know, sort of what that means, is that the point that you make on Cristobal is
03:06fine.
03:06They're going to have four or five games this season, out of the 12 that they play, that are going
03:12to come down to the last minute or two.
03:14Maybe you could say that about a lot of college football teams, but Miami, more than most, Kevin, always seem
03:19to be involved in a game
03:22where they maybe should have won, and they're going to need a play or two at the end to win,
03:27forget the cover, just win the game.
03:29Yeah.
03:30So to your point, so to your point, that is fair.
03:33Last year, in particular, the variance bounced Miami's way.
03:38It did.
03:38It bounced Miami's way.
03:39They ended up winning the majority, not all, but the majority of those games, including that run through the college
03:47football playoff,
03:48where just, you know, basically a play or two would have significantly altered their season, maybe not getting into the
03:55playoff.
03:55Was it Ohio State, I think, also?
03:57Maybe losing to Ohio State on the final play of the game or the final two plays of the game.
04:02So you're 100% right.
04:03But Miami, in the end, still going to be the most talented team in the conference.
04:09That's going to go without saying.
04:12Mensah may be a guy, unlike Beck, who is more of a manager, that could give them a win that
04:20they're not supposed to get because of his talent and ability.
04:23Beck, the better quarterback.
04:24Mensah, the more variance quarterback.
04:27The guy that, oh my gosh, he may throw a 70-yard touchdown pass to Malachi Tony at the end
04:31of a game where Beck was not going to do that.
04:32Like Beck was just going to, you know, check down or throw a pick.
04:36You know, good for Beck.
04:38He's in the NFL.
04:38He'll be a third string.
04:41You know, the things you're saying about Cristobal are all fair.
04:45This is, it does seem to me like a little bit of an inflated total.
04:49But really, because of Miami's schedule within the conference, all it really requires them is to win those, you know,
04:55that Notre Dame game.
04:56Maybe one more big one.
04:58And take care of the business they're supposed to take care of.
05:01So I don't like either way, either side with this, over or under.
05:06I just would say if you're betting on variance, you're betting against Miami this year.
