- 2 months ago
Chelsea showed some very promising signs against Fulham on the opening day in their 3-2 win. So, naturally, Adam Clery investigates their title-challenging credentials for the new Premier League season. Chelsea's front three of Cole Palmer, Morgan Rogers and Joao Pedro looked clinical in the attacking areas, but will their shaky defensive structure and questionable goalkeeper qualty ultimately be their downfall?
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00:00Right. Hello, everybody. Welcome to the Adam Cleary Football Channel, where I, to quote the Black Eyed Peas, have a
00:06feeling.
00:08Ooh.
00:10I simply cannot dissuade myself from the notion that this Chelsea team are the real deal this season.
00:17Having watched a number of their friendlies and now, of course, the Fulham game, I think, and by some distance,
00:23by the way,
00:24they are the most likely team to pose a challenge to Arsenal this season.
00:29So let us look at what they are doing, why it could be really effective this season, and what they
00:34still need to improve on.
00:39Now, first off, I said all summer, do not worry about whether or not Alonso plays a 3-4-2
00:45-1 or a 4-2-3-1,
00:47because the effect in the final third, when they push up, will be exactly the same.
00:53This sort of box midfield shape with a three at the back.
00:56The only difference comes in how he wants his teams to defend when they haven't got the ball.
01:01And you saw against Fulham, can I move them all quickly enough?
01:04It was like this 5-4-1 shape.
01:08Like you can see here, when they're really deep, that is defensively a back five, and that's just one of
01:13the advantages that comes with playing this formation.
01:16There are pros and cons. That's a pro, especially when you're away from home.
01:20But incidentally, and let me just move all these players out of the way for you so you can see
01:24it better, right?
01:25This is the single greatest average positions graph I have ever, ever seen.
01:31It literally looks like a line-up sheet you would hand to the referee, but it is the mathematical average
01:37of where every single Chelsea player played this game.
01:41And it's just, no, you can see it.
01:42It's absolutely perfect.
01:44They don't normally look like this.
01:46And you can see they've got Malagusto and Hato as the wing-backs.
01:49They've got sort of this dual number 10 idea with Cole Palmer on the right and Morgan Rodgers on the
01:54left.
01:55And Rhys James, where I would argue his best position is now, in central midfield.
02:00But the three, or the five at the back, makes a lot of sense in games like this where Chelsea
02:04are either choosing or forced to have less possession than their opponents.
02:10And you can see from the numbers, that's probably quite a surprising split, given the respective quality of the teams
02:16and how probably you remember the game.
02:19Nearly two-thirds of the ball for Fulham.
02:22250 more passes and yet less shots, less chances, and considerably less XG.
02:29And yet, the reason I'm showing you this average positions graph is because you'd look at that, and that is
02:34nowhere near as defensive as you would expect from a team who have 38% of the ball.
02:40That's the sort of number you would expect to see for a team who are starting on the edge of
02:45their own box, where pretty much every player was predominantly in their own half.
02:49But I would say that is every bit as attacking as Fulham's average positions graph.
02:55It's certainly a lot neater.
02:57This is what they tend to usually look like.
03:00Part of the reason for that, and again, this comes from the advantage of having a back three, is that
03:03they pressed man for man in Fulham's half and it immediately got them the goal.
03:09The front line and the midfield all sit off.
03:11Their only business is defending this central space here, denying Fulham the ability to pass through them with any ease.
03:18And then, when they force them to play around, that is the trigger for everybody to then jump on the
03:25ball and jump on the players.
03:27But you can see Ashenpong chases all the way into the final third, which looks absolutely mad, but that's okay.
03:33But because Gusto is man for man as well and runs all the way back with Robinson to stop them
03:39exploiting that gap.
03:40Rhys James is on his bike in the middle.
03:42Palmer's got pressure on the ball.
03:44Rogers has come all the way across.
03:46And they force Fulham into a punt.
03:48And when you've got three centre-backs at the team, it doesn't really matter if one of them has gone
03:53chasing up into the opposition's half.
03:55You've still got two very big lads there who can contest that ball, which Chelsea do and they win it.
04:01The whole reason teams press like this is for moments like exactly what happens next.
04:06Because this line-up, in theory, actually has, of the ten outfield players, seven defenders.
04:13Like, there's only really Palmer, Pedro and Rogers you would consider out-and-out attackers.
04:18Don't get me wrong, Hato and Gusto, when they push up, they're very useful in the final third.
04:21But they're not massively creative, really dangerous attacking players.
04:26So if this team pushes all the way up and pins you back to the edge of your own box,
04:31there's only really these three players here who are going to have any success at unpicking a determined and well
04:38-organised low block.
04:39And you know yourself how many teams defend in, like, a really compact, narrow 4-4-2 block.
04:45And just simply looking at the numbers, if a team does that,
04:48then all of your creativity and most of your attacking threat is hugely outnumbered in the area they want to
04:56play.
04:56So Chelsea are trying to avoid ending up in this situation, because what can you do?
05:02And, obviously, the best way to avoid this 3v6, or even sometimes, Christ, 3v8,
05:08is to try and manufacture situations where you're actually 3v3, or even better yet, several 1v1s.
05:15Don't get me wrong, they do get a bit of luck with just how far this clearance travels,
05:19but as soon as it winds up at Palmer's feet, he is ruthless with it.
05:24You can see here, Chelsea have a far better situation than they would have if they pinned Fulham back,
05:29and he can immediately feed that to João Pedro.
05:31No holding onto the ball, no hesitation, just taking advantage of the momentary lack of shape,
05:37and bang, that's 1-0.
05:39And the second goal, I would say, is equally as direct as that,
05:43but the difference here is that Chelsea use really clever rotations to open Fulham up,
05:47rather than high pressing.
05:49But the ball comes to the centre-backs, and this draws Fulham out, which it obviously should do,
05:54and Lacroix carries it up the pitch, pretty much, just to see if Garcia will go with him
06:00right the way into the front line.
06:02Which I would say, given he's Fulham centre-forward, and they are trying to put a bit of pressure on
06:06them,
06:07understandably, he doesn't.
06:09It gets to a point, even if you are man for man, where you do have to just say,
06:12somebody else takes him.
06:14But then, just watch Cole Palmer here, right, because seeing this movement into his space,
06:19he drops partially to get on the ball, but mostly to, again, see if his marker will go with him,
06:26which, understandably, this time, he does.
06:29And that is just two really simple movements, one forward and one backwards,
06:34that effectively swaps two players' positions in the same team.
06:38And if you look at it right at this moment, look at the gap in Palmer's area that's been made,
06:43and look at how Chelsea have managed to get a player into it.
06:47And don't get me wrong, there is still loads of work for Lacroix to do from there.
06:51He has to beat a man, he puts a really good cross in.
06:53But that whole opportunity, the chance for him to do that,
06:57is created purely through a really drastic rotation in Chelsea's attack.
07:02Literally an outside centre-back and a number 10.
07:05Opposite ends of the pitch, swapping position.
07:07Like, from the initial carry, this ball is in the back of the net in just four short passes.
07:13And look as well, when he goes, where is Rhys James?
07:17He is dropping into the back line, because Ashenpong has gone probing upfield himself prior to this.
07:23And where is Lavia? He is dropping back in to cover this run.
07:27And I would say that whole movement, even players who don't get anywhere near the ball,
07:32shows really, really promising and exciting from a Chelsea point of view,
07:36synergy within this team already.
07:39That looks like a team that is really well coached.
07:43The third goal is even more direct than that.
07:45Like, it's just a long ball, Rodgers drops, Pedro goes,
07:47and now you've got this 2v2 with him,
07:50and Palmer making a third-man run.
07:53And they just do the easiest trick in the book once they get into the box.
07:57Full of missets, they stop Pedro cutting inside,
07:59and then just don't pass the run on,
08:01so Palmer goes round the back and is completely free.
08:05And again, from the goalkeeper having the ball at the back,
08:08that is in the net in three passes.
08:11That is about as direct as you could possibly get.
08:14And look, right, it won't be like this every single week.
08:17Like, Chelsea cannot have 38% of the ball at Stamford Bridge every single game.
08:23So I wouldn't be totally surprised to see Alonso sometimes use a back four
08:26just so they're a little bit more dominant in possession.
08:29But this thing you see in the second goal,
08:31go back to draw the opposition out,
08:34slow the tempo down to speed it back up again,
08:36and hit them with really direct passing or direct running.
08:40I think you've seen a lot in this one game
08:43of what this Chelsea team under this manager are going to be about.
08:47And not only is it fun to watch, it's very good as well.
08:50But it also, and we must point this out,
08:54looks not entirely solid.
08:58Or right now, anyway, I would say Fulham's equalizers
09:01shout every bit as loudly about their weaknesses
09:04as those goals are shouting about their strengths.
09:07But this is a three versus three
09:10in a perfectly okay area of the pitch to have a three versus three.
09:14There's no danger really whatsoever.
09:17But once Josh King sets off on his run,
09:19this defensive shape is a problem.
09:22Levi Colwell is miles away from the other two centre-backs.
09:25And if he's deciding he cannot just let his man go
09:29and defend the space instead,
09:31then there needs to be some sort of reaction
09:34almost automatically from Lavia and or Morgan Rodgers.
09:39Either the former needs to drop in to force Kings run wide
09:42or the latter needs to just grab a hold of him
09:45and decides you are not running off the back of me.
09:48I simply won't let you.
09:49But neither of those things happen,
09:50and it puts King here, right?
09:53But the thing is, that is not why they concede.
09:57It's why they concede the chance, sure, and it's bad,
10:00but it's not why they concede the goal.
10:02Because that, for me, is worse.
10:04If Josh King crosses this ball,
10:07and you can see Gossier is fractionally ahead of the defender,
10:10so he might poke it in,
10:11then yes, you would say this moment here in the build-up
10:15is where the fatal mistake was made.
10:17But it's not, because the real issue is the goalkeeping.
10:22This is neither how nor where you stand as a goalkeeper in this situation.
10:28And I mean, I've already explained why.
10:31Like, he's anticipating this cross coming in.
10:34So you look at how he's set and what he's doing.
10:35He's got a mind on trying to cut this out.
10:39But the thing about being a goalkeeper at any level
10:42is that you cannot gamble on what the ball might be doing
10:46if it comes at the expense of not guarding the actual goal.
10:52Like, right as the shot is taken,
10:54look at his lean in the opposite direction.
10:56Look at the amount of the near post there is to aim at.
10:59He is totally caught out by the shot.
11:02He can't get down properly,
11:03and it just goes right through his hands.
11:06He's getting distracted about what he thinks is going to happen
11:09instead of focusing on what is happening.
11:12And look, just to be clear,
11:13the reaction to the chance developing,
11:14that is something that urgently needs addressed.
11:17Like, Chelsea cannot be that susceptible
11:19to basic movement around the box
11:21if they want to challenge for any major honours this season.
11:26But Robert Sanchez,
11:28a goalkeeper who, in a lot of respects,
11:30I actually like,
11:32who I think sometimes gets unfairly criticised,
11:35he needed to elevate his game this season,
11:39or at least continue on the elevation he was already on.
11:42And that is a really worrying sign.
11:45Like, even this moment when Anthony Robinson gets through,
11:47you can do anything except stand where Sanchez is standing.
11:52Either you think you can get the ball so you rush out and challenge for it,
11:55or you stay in your goal.
11:58Because asking the attacker to try and find a bottom corner on a bouncing ball
12:03is a hundred times harder than just lofting it over the top of you
12:07into what is effectively an empty net.
12:09And yet, that's exactly where he stands,
12:12and Fulham should score from this.
12:14And don't get me wrong,
12:15this is not one of those really lazy,
12:17Chelsea need a new goalkeeper point I'm trying to make,
12:20because I actually think they can win the league with Robert Sanchez,
12:24just not that version of him.
12:27Like, these are his underlying numbers from the last two seasons.
12:2924-25, that save percentage is really strong.
12:33Goal prevented per 90 is fine.
12:35Sweeping actions is brilliant.
12:36High claims.
12:37In this league, with all those really big lads and all of those crosses,
12:41that is superb.
12:42But the passing needed to improve.
12:44And this, errors leading to goal,
12:48that is what kills him.
12:50And just to put the maths into reality for the normal people who watch this channel,
12:550.16 errors leading to goal per 90.
12:59What that means in an actual game is every 5.5 matches,
13:05every five and a half games, right,
13:06he will make a mistake that directly gives a goal away.
13:11That is loads.
13:13That was as bad as any goalkeeper in the league.
13:16But last season, he really did improve on that.
13:19He got it down to 0.03,
13:21which is basically one bad mistake every, like, 30 games or something like that,
13:27which is the same sort of number as David Reier,
13:31you know, who everyone says is the best goalkeeper in the league.
13:34That's about how often he does that.
13:36So that's a massive improvement.
13:38And yeah, his save percentage was less good and he swept less,
13:41although I think some of that might actually be tactical.
13:43But his high claims were still great and he made massive improvements in his passing.
13:49And those are two things that are huge for any team that want to be near the top of the
13:53league.
13:53And look, don't get me wrong, right,
13:55this Robert Sanchez, this improved version of Robert Sanchez,
13:59it won't win you the Premier League,
14:01like in the way you could argue David Reier won Arsenal, the Premier League.
14:06But it also won't stop the other 10 lads in the game from having a really good go at it
14:11and getting right to the top of the division.
14:13But, cycle that out, this Robert Sanchez, the one from two seasons ago,
14:19that absolutely will stop you winning the league.
14:22And that's what it looked like we got against Fulham.
14:25It's on Alonso now to make sure this guy, rid of that again, is gone.
14:30And this guy is actually who's in goal.
14:34Better decision making, better fundamentals, and he will be fine, I think.
14:40And as you might be aware, I don't really like doing predictions when it comes to football
14:44because just so many variables, so many things can change after you've said the prediction.
14:50But I think any team capable of crafting moments like this
14:54and rotating like this and finishing like this,
14:57without European football, my gut instinct is that they are the team best placed
15:03to give Arsenal a bloody nose.
15:06Or who knows, maybe even a real big scare.
15:09And also, because I know this will come up in the comments somewhere,
15:12I would absolutely let Enzo Fernandes go right now.
15:16He's a wonderful player, don't get me wrong, he's fantastic.
15:19He does great things for Chelsea.
15:21But to get rid of his importance to the team,
15:24the drama that's surrounding him, even his wage bill,
15:27I think that opens up so many interesting possibilities
15:30for Alonso in terms of his squad building
15:33and in terms of what he does on the pitch.
15:36It can be a good thing to unburden yourself from a big player
15:41because then you don't have to use them.
15:43So yes, there you go.
15:44That's why I think Chelsea got a genuine shout this season.
15:47But I am the man who said the exact same thing
15:50that first season under Pochettino.
15:52So they've been my dark horses for like four years now.
15:55I've got to get it right sooner or later.
15:57But thank you very much for watching.
15:58Here is your reminder that we are raising a significant amount of money
16:01or at least trying to for mental health charity Mind in the UK.
16:05I'm doing loads and loads of running.
16:07Great North Road in like three and a bit weeks,
16:08the Rome Half Marathon and assorted other things across Europe.
16:11In that time, I cannot believe that in two weeks
16:14we have gone past the £2,500 targets.
16:17I'll be upping that.
16:19It absolutely blows my mind.
16:20If you've ever used mental health services in the UK or anywhere else,
16:23you'll know they really struggle.
16:25They do not have the resources they need for the service they need to provide.
16:28So charities like mine do an unbelievable job in picking up that slack.
16:32So I'm really proud to be doing stuff for them.
16:34If you've got anything you can chuck towards that,
16:37it goes so much further than you think.
16:39They do an unbelievable job with it.
16:40You can get me across all the social medias
16:42where I'll be talking about this at UNTVCLEOI.
16:44Thank you for watching, ACFC.
16:46The football is back.
16:47I think Chelsea might be good.
16:49Viva Alonso, etc.
16:51Love you. Bye.