00:00It's a bear market that's bouncing, Scarlett. We have to put it in context. It's August. It's a
00:05perfect time of year to flush out the shorts in a bear market, get everybody excited, and then go
00:10back down. So it's finally bounced above its 200-day moving average, which has rolled over.
00:15But the key way I look at Bitcoin is it's a horrible performing asset with a high correlation
00:20to the stock market, and it has a major risk of going down more. Good examples on the year,
00:24it's down about 20%. Stock market's up about 15%. On a five-year basis, it's up 40% or so.
00:32Stock market total returns around 80%. So I put on my risk manager hat, and I say,
00:36yeah, this is a horrible asset. It's high volatility, high correlation, and there's
00:41unlimited supply of cryptos now. So I will be on the record that this is a dog. I think it's
00:46going
00:46to roll over by the end of the year. And the only thing that will support it now is the
00:49stock market
00:49has to go up. So who trades Bitcoin these days, Mike, retail versus institutional? Who's still in
00:57it these days? Exactly. That's what it is. It's a trading vehicle. Now there's millions of them.
01:02Go trade. I'm an ex-trader. I get it. You're supposed to trade it, but most of them just like
01:06to buy it to go higher. That trade's over. Like even precious metals, that big rally's over. All those
01:12traders have shrift over to the stock market. But who's trading? They can trade all they want. But I
01:16look at it from an institutional standpoint, when people say institutions aren't coming in, I'm like,
01:20why? It's a horrible performing asset. High correlation. Just from a risk management
01:26standpoint, it's just a bad asset. Something's got to change. The bottom line, though, is for me,
01:31for a whole crypto spaces, there was one in 2009, and now there's millions. It's way oversupplied,
01:37and it looks like the whole thing just needs a purge. And this is just a bounce within the purge.
01:41Mike, you probably know this, but I co-host Bloomer Crypto every Tuesday,
01:45and the price action of crypto has really not been anything too exciting since last October.
01:51But the industry has moved on to things like prediction markets or tokenization. All these
01:56other ways of transforming the financial industry from what was traditional infrastructure to
02:02something that incorporates the new blockchain technology. Is that kind of movement towards
02:08this new technology going to, at some point, have an impact on the price of Bitcoin and the other
02:12digital currencies that kind of underlie all of this?
02:16Well, you nailed it, Skylar. That's the key theme about this space. The technology is overwhelming.
02:21The proliferation of crypto dollars, stable coins, tokenization of assets makes real value and
02:29really value. That's my key point is anything you see that tracks like a dollar of an asset,
02:34that has a basis. But all the other cryptos like Bitcoin, there's no basis. They track nothing.
02:39It's all hopium. We just need to purge a lot of those excesses. But I think that's the key thing
02:43from all along is I love the technology. But the key thing to remember is Bitcoin was started out
02:47as peer-to-peer cash. Well, you don't need that anymore. We have crypto dollars. And that's part
02:51of what I think people are learning global is I can exchange dollars on my phone via stable coin.
02:56I don't need to take the risk in a highly speculative digital asset anymore. And by the way,
03:00there's an unlimited supply of those.
03:01All right. Let's switch real quick before we let you go, Mike, over to crude oil higher yet again
03:07over the last several days, I guess reflecting some increased tensions in the Middle East. What's
03:12what's the oil action telling you here?
03:14Well, definitely a key thing, Paul. Let's watch that first contract expires today. That's September.
03:19We move to October tomorrow. That's around 86. The front contracts are on 88. So that's going to
03:23happen. It's all about Mr. Trump. The key question I need to ask myself is you look at January natural
03:29gas in the U.S. That's the apex of the number one measure of heat, electricity, and fertilizer.
03:33It's down 15 percent on the year as we approach winter. I have a feeling that crude oil is going
03:38to follow it and get lower energy inflation into the year end. And the number one person who can
03:43control that is Mr. Trump. So what he does, I don't know. But the bottom line, as we're seeing right
03:48now, is the rest of the world is posting a lot of crude oil, most notably the U.S., Canada,
03:52Guyana, Brazil. All these countries are on record exports now, on record production. And we're
03:59finding out the Gulf is important, but it's becoming less important as the rest of the
04:03world shifts to more production and less demand.
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