00:00There's a lot of these what we call supply shocks that have hit the economy, whether it's through
00:04tariffs, whether it's energy prices. And tariffs, if they're implemented cleanly, you can think
00:11about them like a tax, like a one-time increase in the price level, which technically is not
00:16inflation. It'll be in and then out because if the price goes from $10 to $12 and it stays at
00:23$12,
00:23then you have that one-time shock, but then it's not moving. And so the question is, are some of
00:30these supply shocks, whether it's tariffs, whether it's the energy costs, are they just one-time things
00:35that we should look through or is it more persistent? My view, given that we've had five
00:43years of above target inflation, that we've had a series of these supply shocks, they're layered,
00:49if you will, they continue to come from a lot of different directions, says to me, and when I
00:54think about the businesses that I'm talking to and how they're thinking about their pricing
01:02pressures, it says to me that it's more persistent, that we may be making some progress down. We've
01:08gotten two recent reports on the inflation side that are definitely better than the earlier five
01:14months that we've had this year. And so it's welcome. I love to see that those numbers are
01:19coming in lower. That's a good thing. But I don't have confidence that we're going to continue to
01:24see that or that we're going to see them low enough that it's going to bring us back down to
01:28that 2%
01:28number. And that's really the job is to make sure that we are making progress towards that 2%. And then
01:34the question is, how quickly? How quickly do we need to deliver on that 2% objective? And maybe we'd
01:39get
01:39there. But if it takes us another three or four years to get there? Is that okay? Is that enough?
01:45If
01:45you've been missing for five years already, can the public wait?
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