00:03Q&A의 30-year Treasury yield just hit its highest level in 19 years.
00:12And Korea's growth assessment was upgraded in the same week.
00:16Korea's July exports jumped 62.8% from a year earlier, with a $30.32 billion trade surplus.
00:25The U.S. Treasury is now deploying three separate tools to push long-end yields back down.
00:32China is funding its AI build-out through capital markets rather than the state budget.
00:38It's Tuesday, August 11th.
00:40Here's why global investors are paying attention to Korea today.
00:44Two forces are pulling on Korean assets this week.
00:48One is the U.S. long-end, where the 30-year yield touched 5.28% on July 31st.
00:55The highest since July 2007.
00:58The other is Korea's own cycle, which the Korea Development Institute upgraded in its August assessment on the strength of
01:06semiconductor exports.
01:08Here's what the numbers show.
01:10Korea's July exports rose 62.8% year-on-year,
01:15and ICT shipments led by semiconductors surged 178.2% on a daily average basis.
01:23The trade surplus came in at $30.32 billion.
01:28Facility investment climbed 21.7% in June, more than double May's 9.7% pace.
01:36The Korea Development Institute flagged U.S. tariff measures and Middle East instability as renewed risks,
01:43with tariffs returning to its risk list for the first time since February.
01:47June payrolls added just 63,000 jobs, well below the first quarter average of 183,000.
01:55Headline inflation eased to 2.8% in July, while core inflation ticked up to 2.6%.
02:01The U.S. Treasury shifted its quarterly refunding language from reviewing increases to reviewing changes in coupon and floating rate
02:10note sizes.
02:12And 61% of clients surveyed by BMO Capital Markets now expect 30-year supply to shrink.
02:19Washington also joined Tokyo in buying yen for the first time since 1998,
02:24using the Federal Reserve's FEMA repo facility to keep Japan from selling treasuries.
02:30So what does this mean for global investors allocating to Korea?
02:35Earlier, we said Korea's July exports jumped 62.8%.
02:40Here's what that actually means for you.
02:42The earnings engine is real, but it is concentrated in semiconductors,
02:47and the discount rate applied to it is being set in Washington rather than Seoul.
02:53With the U.S. federal deficit near $2 trillion and total debt near $40 trillion,
02:59long-end supply relief looks tactical rather than structural,
03:03which leaves duration risk as the swing factor in a Korea waiting.
03:08Watch the next quarterly refunding announcement for confirmation that 30-year issuance is actually being cut.
03:15Watch Korea's August export release on September 1st for whether the semiconductor surge holds.
03:22Watch the Korea Development Institute's September assessment for any change to its tariff and Middle East risk language.
03:30That's today's AI Prism Global Investors.
03:34This episode was produced with AI assistance based on Seoul Economic Daily reporting and reviewed by a human editor.
03:42AI Prism is a Juan Ifra award-winning series.
03:46We'll be back tomorrow.
03:47You've been listening to AI Prism from Seoul Economic Daily.
