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00:20Good morning. Welcome to the Myers Report Fast 15. It is Friday, July 24, 2026. You've heard
00:28of the dating app, it's only lunch. Well, Don Day is here to tell us that it's only the weather
00:34and
00:34not a climate catastrophe. Today, as usual, we have Don, who will bring us up to speed as to what
00:43happened this week. But is it also just a normal summer, in case anybody is wondering? Don, the air
00:53quality has improved. Does that mean the Canadian fires have gone out? Well, they're still going to
00:59be active, but not nearly as active as they've been. A cooler, wetter trend has developed where
01:04the source region of the smoke is. We've got some fires going on in the Pacific Northwest. The fires
01:10that were in the Rockies have been quenched a little bit from some badly needed rain here over the past
01:17week. So I think we've seen the worst of the smoke. Now, the fire season's got a long way to
01:22go, so I
01:22don't want to say never. But the long-term forecast for eastern Canada, as we go into August, is actually
01:30a little cool. So that should help. But as you said before, one of the problems with the fire season
01:36is
01:36what, 87% of the fires are man-made or arson? Well, U.S. statistics for wildfire activity is that
01:47just less than 90% can be directly caused to human activity, either through arson or just
01:53negligence. The other fires that start naturally are usually started by lightning, which is
01:58totally natural, obviously. Well, in Canada, were there any significant lightning strikes?
02:05Yes, but there are also some suspicions. And I don't have any good thing, but I do know from people
02:11who I follow that they're suspicious that the last 10 years of Canadian wildfires, it's always a
02:20combination of things. It's never one thing. You know, a lot of times with weather conditions,
02:26whether there's a period of drought or dry conditions, sometimes the arsonists are following
02:31those things and they know when to strike, so to speak, when the conditions are right to make a big
02:38impact. Okay, what's the weather doing in the upper Midwest? Well, we've got some heat and dryness.
02:46We've hit a little bit of a dry patch in the Dakotas, Minnesota, Wisconsin, parts of the
02:53Northwest Corn Belt, Iowa, Nebraska could use some cooler wet weather, but they've got another week of
02:59some heat. We're going to have a lot of heat in the Southern Plains through the Northern Plains,
03:04while the edges of the U.S., the Northeast and the Far East actually will have some pretty moderate
03:10temperatures here for another week or so. So how is this going to impact the crop yields this year?
03:15I know, I think in that Northwest Corn Belt, they're certainly going to be concerned. But the one thing
03:20that I've learned here over the last decade or so is how resilient U.S. crops are, even in harsh
03:27weather conditions, I certainly see this as more of a small regional impact and not a big one if you
03:33look
03:33at the rest of the key growing areas. So you don't see any tightness in crop production? I don't at
03:39the
03:39moment, no. Okay. We hear that there's some heavy rains in the Southwest. What's that about?
03:46Yeah, in fact, Arizona, which desperately needed some rain, has gotten some big rains over the last
03:51week or so. So did parts of Utah, parts of New Mexico. In fact, a little bit of too much
03:57rain in too many
03:59areas that did get some flash flooding. In fact, we had a family of five in Utah this past week
04:05killed in a
04:05flash flood while they were camping. So that's always a risk that you have in the Western and Southwestern
04:12United States with these, we call them monsoonal rains, and that has definitely benefited the fires in the
04:19West and brought some needed rain. Okay, we're now into hurricane season. How has it been so far in
04:282026? Very quiet so far. The Pacific is a different story. We've got some hurricane activity out in the
04:34Eastern Pacific. Right now it's staying out over open water, not really affecting anybody other than
04:39shipping lanes. We had Tropical Storm Bertha this week in the Gulf Coast, but that's now dissipated and
04:47drifting west into Mexico and will cause some heavy rain there. You know, one thing globally that I could
04:54bring up is there's been a tremendous amount of rain and snow hitting portions of South America, most
05:02notably Chile. 10 to 15 feet of snow in the Andes and flooding in parts of Chile, and this is
05:08a precursor
05:09the beginnings of the impacts of El Nino. So what does that mean for us? What we do is what
05:17we need
05:17to watch is is that when we start to see that in South America now, that could translate into the
05:22southern U.S. this winter, namely California and parts of the south. So go ahead. So yeah, so you know,
05:30when you have an El Nino this strong, California historically in similar patterns gets flooding.
05:36It's one of those double-edged swords. They get a lot of badly needed rain to fill the reservoirs.
05:41They also get a lot of flooding. And that's something that that what's happening in South
05:45America right now is kind of a is a indicator of what could come for the U.S. this winter.
05:53Is all of this normal weather or climate disaster?
05:56It's well, it's weather. Weather is weather. There's a climate disaster every day somewhere
06:03in the globe. That happens every day since the dawn of time.
06:06So what does that mean for the Midwest for the winter?
06:11Good question, Bob. That's something that that is the El Nino is going to be impactful.
06:17But it's a little too early to talk about U.S. weather for the winter yet. So I will jot
06:23this
06:23down as a request for later. Fair enough. Dr. Bob Janetsky on the economy. Yes. Oil prices
06:33are up, but not by that much. Yesterday they were up at $92 a barrel, which is definitely heading in
06:43the wrong direction. But they're down this morning to, I guess, about $89 and change. And gold and silver
06:59are down. So what are you making of all of this? Why is gold and silver not going sky high
07:08in terms of
07:10where the economy is going? I think that gold is overvalued at the current prices even. So I think
07:18this is a longer term thing. People just became so excited about gold that they are now bought it.
07:25I think they've been bidding the prices far beyond what gold is actually worth. And I would not be
07:32surprised if that continues to come down. But I've been, I have to tell you, I've been very terrible
07:37on forecasting gold prices historically, because what I do is I tie commodity prices to their long-term
07:45trend. And the long-term trend in gold prices is somewhere around, you know, closer to $1,000 an ounce
07:54rather than $4,000. So gold has just been in an incredible bull market going far above what its price
08:02would normally be if you used the average price of commodities to value gold. And so, you know, I just
08:12think it's way out of line. I would certainly not be buying at this level. But I wasn't buying at
08:19$2,000
08:19either. So we went from $2,000 to $4,000. And a lot of people made a lot of money
08:26on that. I just think it
08:27continues to be, you know, pushed far higher than fundamentals would suggest.
08:33The stock market seemed to be relatively stable. What's your interpretation of this?
08:40Well, it's stable in terms of the overall S&P 500, which is the benchmark index. And we've been there
08:48for the past three months. And basically, there are two main forces. The negative force
08:55is what's happening in Iran, where it appears that, you know, this conflict is going to exist
09:05for a much longer period of time than was originally anticipated. And no one knows how long it's going
09:11to exist. But the longer it exists, the more oil prices are going to remain highly elevated from where
09:18they were and where we expected them to be. So it's a big problem. And it will be resolved,
09:26at least I feel it will be resolved. But it's not going to be resolved quickly. Since it's not
09:31resolved quickly, it has a negative effect on the US stock market. The offset to that...
09:38But it hasn't been that much of a negative effect.
09:40And the offset to that, because I talked about the negative, the positive is corporate profits just
09:46keep coming in very, very strong. They are, right now, the expectation is that they are going to be,
09:55you know, possibly 70% above the longer term trend. I mean, this is just an incredible profit picture.
10:04And the forecast is the profits are going to be going up another 20% in the coming year. So
10:11if you're
10:12looking at the good news, the good news is, hey, companies are making a lot of money. And what
10:17happens to stock prices, if you're making a lot of money, they tend to be high. But by the same
10:23token,
10:23we've got some negative international developments occurring. And people just don't know how long or
10:29how bad that's going to be.
10:31But the US economy is still seems to be healthier. The job growth is looking good.
10:36Yeah, we've got some pretty good numbers. We haven't gotten much in the way of new economic
10:41news this past week. It's been the summer low for economic information, but we start to get more
10:47next week. Next week, we get some pretty detailed figures on what happened in June. And I'm afraid that
10:56so far, the figures that have been very comprehensive on the economy have shown that we have a slowdown.
11:04That slowdown, I think, was the effect of a tight monetary policy that existed late last year and
11:11into the early part of this year. But that tight money has turned around. There are some indications
11:17that we're getting more money in the system in recent months. And I expect that extra money is going to
11:24hit the economy in the latter half of this year. So I'm looking for a stronger pickup and real growth
11:30in the economy than we've seen in the past couple of months.
11:33What about inflation?
11:36Inflation is going to remain pretty high. We're going to get some news.
11:39What was it? Define high.
11:43Four percent. Four percent inflation, given that the Fed's target is two percent and four percent is twice
11:53as bad as the Fed anticipates. And the Fed is going to get a chance this coming Wednesday to tell
11:59us
11:59whether or not they want to keep their target interest rate, which is a short-term rate right
12:05where it is, which is what, about 3.6 percent, something like that. A lot of people think it's
12:16going to raise interest rates. The Fed will raise interest rates, and of course they might.
12:21It's up to them what they're going to do. I don't believe they're going to, and we'll find out Wednesday
12:25whether I'm right or not. I believe the Fed is going to keep the interest, the target interest rate
12:30right where it is. And the reason for that is because most people think that when you've got
12:36inflation, you've just got too much demand in the economy. And in our case, the inflation isn't
12:43because there's too much demand. Rather, it's because there's not enough supply, that we've got
12:48a supply shortage, particularly with respect to oil at the moment and maybe into the future. And if
12:55that's the reason for the inflation, you shouldn't be raising interest rates and killing the overall
13:01economy in response to a supply shortage, because the Fed can't do anything about that supply shortage.
13:08And I think the Fed chairman knows that, and if he does know it, he's not going to
13:13be raising interest rates. So we'll have to see what happens this Wednesday.
13:17So when there is a settlement with Iran, oil prices will drop, and that really should be a big boost
13:24to
13:24the economy. I think they'll drop very quickly, too. The question is, when does the settlement come?
13:29And we don't have good figures on that. Okay. Our question for the week, which will be the bigger
13:35issue for the midterms? Will it be the economy or foreign interference in our elections? Don,
13:41what do you think? The economy, it always is. Bob Zanetsky, what do you think? I agree. I agree.
13:49Don's pretty smart. It's the economy. I think it will be the economy.
13:54But I think that the foreign interference information is going to really take hold,
14:01so that if the economy has any improvement, particularly if anything on the inflation side,
14:08then all of a sudden you're going to see, I believe you will see a shift, because people
14:12will not be happy that outsiders are messing around with our elections. Okay, guys, I want to say
14:18thank you. Be well. Have a great, safe weekend, and God bless America.
14:45Transcription by CastingWords
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