00:05If you're thinking about buying an apartment in Seoul before the fall, the calendar just
00:12got interesting. Two shifts just happened at the same time. Big sellers moved before
00:19the tax hit, but the interest-free financing door is closing even faster. It's Friday,
00:25August 3rd. Let's look at what's happening in Korea's property market. Two months ago,
00:32before the capital gains tax overhaul took effect, Seoul apartment sales went crazy. In May,
00:3927.9% of all transactions were above 1.5 billion won. That's not normal. That's panic. By June,
00:47after the tax law passed, that share dropped to 23.5%. By July, right now, only 18% of sales
00:56are in
00:57that tier. The high-end market moved forward. It didn't vanish, but it moved.
01:03The second shift hit at the same time. The financial regulator just announced new loan policy. Here's
01:10what passed. New apartments only. Interest-free down payment loans for new construction. But,
01:17and this matters, not for used apartments. Not even a 5% boost to LTV for first-time buyers or
01:24newlyweds. The reasoning is clean. Housing supply is still short. Lower borrowing thresholds would
01:31drive up prices, not sales. The government chose price stability over demand support.
01:38These two moves squeeze the middle market hardest. Used apartments in mid-priced areas are where most
01:4530-something professionals buy their first place. New construction loans just became easier.
01:51Used apartment financing just got tighter. If you're shopping now, you have two choices.
01:56Bid on new construction where financing works. Or, accelerate your used apartment purchase before
02:02rates move higher. What to watch.
02:06First, keep eyes on Sol's apartment sales volume in the next four weeks. If inventory is staying tight,
02:14but prices are falling, meaning sellers are cutting, not buyers are returning, credit conditions are already
02:20tightening. Second, track the bond market. If 10-year yields stay above 2.5%, banks won't loosen used
02:29apartment LTV rules on their own. Third, watch the new apartment lease market. If Junset deposits jump
02:37in the next quarter, it's because sales intensity is weakening and sellers are taking lease income
02:42instead. All three signal when the bottom actually forms.
02:48That's today's AI Prism, real estate. This episode was produced with AI assistance based on Sol Economic
02:55Daily reporting and reviewed by a human editor. AI Prism is a Juan Ifra award-winning series.
03:02We'll be back tomorrow. You've been listening to AI Prism from Sol Economic Daily.
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