00:00A senior Israeli official commented on the current situation in Iran, describing it as
00:05A natural regime change in the country is unlikely.
00:08This is reported by The Times of Israel.
00:11Although Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu assessed this scenario as completely
00:16Possible at the start of the military conflict, Israel now recognizes that a radical change is not
00:22It will be produced without the protesters being armed.
00:25The official believes that the recent executions of dissidents only confirm the difficult
00:31situation of the ruling elite.
00:34Regarding Tehran's military potential, according to Israeli data, the Iranian authorities
00:39They still have approximately 1,500 ballistic missiles.
00:44Although this figure is significantly lower than the pre-war arsenal, the capability
00:49The country's production capacity is exhausted and its missile program has been delayed several years
00:54years.
00:55Meanwhile, Iran is currently refraining from accelerating the development of nuclear weapons.
01:00for fear of losing what little ability he has left.
01:04The Pickaxe Mountain nuclear facility has centrifuges, but they are not used there.
01:09It performs direct uranium enrichment and the complex is under constant surveillance.
01:15There are divisions within the Iranian leadership itself.
01:18According to an Israeli official, the fracture is not between pragmatists and radicals, but
01:24among those who are dominated by fear of economic collapse and uprisings
01:29popular, and those who feel safe relying on the state monopoly on weapons.
01:35This latter group includes the new supreme leader, Mohata Khamenei, who has adopted a stance
01:42hardline.
01:43However, Israel doubts that all the orders come directly from him, given
01:49who has virtually not been seen since he was seriously injured in the first attack
01:54of the war.
01:55According to Pakistani intelligence services, the likelihood that the United States will carry out
02:01The limited ground operation carried out in Iran has increased considerably.
02:06Pakistan raises the possibility that US President Donald Trump could
02:11disregard the recommendations of the military command and order the occupation of certain
02:17coastal areas of Iran.
02:19It is claimed that this conclusion is based on an analysis of observed military activity.
02:24Experts point out that this operation carries extremely high risks, since
02:30that US troops could be targeted by missiles and drones, and the terrain is difficult,
02:36Mountains, deserts, and great distances would considerably complicate their advance and supply.
02:43Meanwhile, an analysis by the United States Naval Institute indicates that the terrain
02:49Iran's actions hinder land access to most strategically important facilities
02:54important.
02:55The authors of the study point out that mountain passes can be easily blocked,
03:01while sandy areas and salt marshes present considerable obstacles
03:06for the movement of armored vehicles.
03:08The BBC had previously reported a similar assessment.
03:13According to the International Institute for Strategic Studies, the Armed Forces and Units
03:18Iran's paramilitary forces number approximately 610,000.
03:24The country also has some 350,000 reserves.
03:28Analysts believe that a potential ground operation could provoke significant resistance.
03:34not only abroad, but also within the United States.
03:39Previously, news outlets reported, citing sources, that the US administration
03:45would be considering the possibility of carrying out a large-scale military operation to
03:50take control of large reserves of enriched uranium located in nuclear facilities
03:56Iranians.
Comentarios