00:00The economist, a member of the Ukrainian Society of Financial Analysts and a former member of the Council
00:06Vitaly Shapran, from the National Bank of Ukraine, commented on reports indicating that
00:11Ukraine has disabled up to 40% of the capacity of the Russian oil industry.
00:17Reuters reports that up to 40% of capacity is out of service
00:23It could very well be true.
00:26That is precisely why the Russians are trying to flood the market with low-octane fuel.
00:31quality, which damages the engines, he stressed in an interview with Glavred.
00:36The expert also pointed out that the fuel crisis has exposed the attitude
00:41from the Federal Center towards the regions of the Russian Federation.
00:45We see that Russia has begun to divert all gasoline and diesel to Moscow, leaving
00:51to the regions either with poor quality fuel or, essentially, by asking them to store
00:56Stay silent and don't discuss the situation.
00:59This type of federal selfishness is deeply irritating to the regions.
01:05Previously, this unease existed primarily at the level of finance ministries
01:10regional and specific officials, who saw how their money was simply being stolen.
01:16Now it has spread to the population. This is very dangerous for Russia, because practically
01:22There are no resources available to quell serious uprisings in the regions at this time. All the
01:28Resources are being allocated to the war. We have the National Guard and the police,
01:33But in the event of large-scale protests, such as Prigoshin's rebellion, these resources could
01:38"They simply aren't enough," Shapran added.
01:41Political and economic expert Tara Zagorodny believes that the detention of ships belonging to
01:48The so-called "Russian shadow fleet" could significantly complicate the supply
01:53of Russian oil to foreign markets.
01:56In his opinion, if European countries join in these types of measures, it could lead to
02:02serious economic consequences for Russia, including a significant reduction in volumes
02:07of exports and considerable financial losses. Zagorodny noted that the main routes
02:14Russian oil transport routes pass through the Baltic and Black Seas. Therefore, even
02:20a temporary detention of the oil tankers under the pretext of environmental and technical inspections
02:25or others could disrupt supply chains and significantly slow down the
02:31oil exports.
02:32The evolution of the oil market is already affecting not only the Russian economy, but
02:38also to war financing. For example, Russia is already being forced to cut back
02:44Spending on arms production. This is already reflected in payment delays.
02:50Russian defense industry companies, whose payments began to be reduced in the mid-2000s
02:55from last year. All of this will inevitably have repercussions on Russia's defense budget, since the
03:02Funding will become increasingly scarce. This is evident even by early 2026.
03:09that Russia faces bigger problems than last year, when the first quarter of
03:142025 was barely sustainable thanks to the fact that oil prices were still holding steady.
03:20relatively high, he added.
03:50Thanks for watching the video.
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