- 4 weeks ago
Chelsea have broken the British transfer record and signed Morgan Rogers from Aston Villa for a cool £117m. But how will the 23-year-old fit in to Xabi Alonso's new-look Chelsea system? Adam Clery breaks down why Chelsea think he's entirely worth this amount, and how Alonso could use him going in to next season.
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00:00Right, hello everybody, welcome to the Adam Cleary Football Channel, where club football waits for no man,
00:06and Morgan Rodgers is a £117m acquisition for Xabi Alonso's Chelsea.
00:14But that is, of course, a lot of money for England's 12th most used player at the World Cup,
00:20so why do they think he is worth that, and specifically, why do they think he's worth it for Xabi
00:28Alonso?
00:29So, let's explore.
00:33Alright, so today we are going to be looking at his profile as a player, why that is considered very
00:40unique,
00:40and why that really does benefit Chelsea as a team.
00:44But the first thing you are going to hear whenever anyone talks about Morgan Rodgers is the word carries.
00:53Which, yes, of course, just means running with the ball over a distance, and every player does it.
00:58Some do it better than others, but Rodgers does it in a way that genuinely changes games.
01:04And if I show you, right, his carrying profile from PlayerPrint, which is a site set up by, like, a
01:10data science guy called Pranav,
01:12who I follow on Twitter.
01:14And this is, it's not a sponsored thing, or even a favour, I just think this is really cool.
01:18Right, if I show you that, you can sort of see that the numbers make him look good, if not
01:23spectacular.
01:23Like, his carries into the box percentage is really, really high, comparative to the rest of the Premier League.
01:29But his overall take on percentage is actually quite low.
01:32So you get a bit of a picture from the numbers, right?
01:35But nothing that screams £117 million.
01:40But when you actually watch him with the ball, the numbers sort of disguise how selective he is with when
01:46he chooses to do this stuff.
01:48Like, you can see here, Villa are up against a low block, a compact defence.
01:52Very little space to play, and Rodgers is here, out on the rest-hand side.
01:57And it's actually quite an unspectacular sequence of play here.
02:00Like, it doesn't lead to a goal or even a chance, but the nuances in it tell you a lot
02:05about him.
02:05He's got an easy pass back into the defender here.
02:08He could hit Leon Bailey to feet, but his back's to goal.
02:11So nothing's on that's going to open up anything for Villa.
02:15But then, when the defender comes tight, he waits, drops the shoulder, and then darts down the line.
02:21Which is obviously really good skill.
02:24If someone does that to you at five a side, you'd be hearing about it for months.
02:28But just watch what he does next.
02:31Having beat his man, the easy option is to continue driving down the line.
02:37Maybe you go past the full-back here.
02:38Maybe he fouls you and you win a free kick.
02:40But Rodgers does not ever really go down the outside of another player.
02:46He always wants to go towards goal.
02:49So instead, he goes inside, albeit gradually.
02:53And by the time he chops back inside onto his left foot, he's now got three other players around him.
03:00And look at the space Onana suddenly has for this pass.
03:05And like I say, nothing really comes of this sequence at all.
03:08But go back to the very start of it and look at the position Andre Onana is in then.
03:13He is marked out of the game.
03:14And just a few seconds later, through an individual bit of skill, Villa are 15 yards nearer to the goal
03:21with all of this space on the edge of the box.
03:24And that is like a bit of a weird clip to show you because there's loads of montages on the
03:29internet of him absolutely flying past other players, doing them with skill.
03:34Loads of mazy dribbles.
03:35Really cool, sexy, exciting stuff that catches the eye.
03:39But the difference between the players who do all of this stuff and the players who are worth £117 million
03:46is actually the small stuff like this moment here.
03:51Can they face a low block, an impenetrable wall of bodies, a disappointing nil-nil draw looming on the horizon?
03:58And can they take it upon themselves to make something happen for their teammates rather than waiting for their teammates
04:06to make something happen for them?
04:09And in that small, subtle little clip, that is what Morgan Rodgers does.
04:13He takes the initiative.
04:15You imagine that Onana here is Fernandes or Cole Palmer.
04:20Imagine what they could then do with the space this small moment has made.
04:25And these are all of his progressive carries in the Premier League last season.
04:31Which, if that is a new term for you, is just when you run with the ball and you take
04:36your team a certain distance closer to the opposition goal in the process.
04:40They basically differentiate them from just randomly running somewhere with the ball.
04:45These are all the really useful runs that people do.
04:47And the ones with the little pink dots at the end, those are all the times he turned one of
04:52those carries, which he's doing himself, into a shot for himself.
04:56If we cross-reference this with Votmob, right, you'll see he's in the top 10% of the Premier League
05:01for the overall number of these he does, right?
05:05And what you want to be noticing with both that number and this graph, right, is the angle of most
05:11of these runs.
05:12It doesn't matter whether he gets it on the left, the right, the centre, near the goal, really deep in
05:16his own half.
05:17They are almost always towards the opposition goal.
05:22And the reason that's so invaluable is because in a league that is increasingly obsessed with low blocks and stopping
05:29players accessing the centre of the pitch,
05:31it does not matter where he picks up the ball.
05:35He can take you much closer towards it.
05:38And all of these examples literally make a chance just for himself in the process.
05:44That is a game-changing way to run with the ball.
05:48And that's why everyone thinks he's such a special boy.
05:51But the thing is, as good as this looks and as exciting as the montages are to watch,
05:57what I'm actually describing to you here is a player who is pretty one-dimensional, right?
06:04If you're a defender, you know he's going to get the ball and he's going to run at you and
06:08he's going to run towards goal
06:10and he's going to try and get a shot off at the end of it.
06:12And while that might be hard to defend against, it is not hard to prepare for.
06:18And certainly not worth £117 million British pounds of somebody's money.
06:25So why is Rodgers, as mentioned, a special boy?
06:30Well, because if you get rid of this, you can replace it with this.
06:34And thank you so much, Opta, for publishing this particular graph.
06:38Morgan Rodgers last season was either first or second in the Premier League for progressive passes,
06:44for passes into the final third, for line-breaking passes, for line-breaking passes in the final third,
06:50and for line-breaking passes leading to a goal, and for big chances created.
06:56And that is because what Morgan Rodgers does is he gets the ball and he faces you up.
07:03And if you step in to try and challenge him, he will fly past you with his dribbling.
07:08But if you step off to give yourself an extra yard so he can't do that, he will then kill
07:13you with his passing.
07:15He's got the technique and the game reading of some creative assist machine,
07:19but the feat and the athleticism of a flying 1v1 monster,
07:24which makes him one of the hardest-to-defend players in the Premier League.
07:29And this is another moment where it's easy to miss, like, the nuance in the situation, right?
07:33This is a goal Villa get against Chelsea.
07:36They find him in space in the number 10 position,
07:38and because Watkins is going to drag this centre-back away,
07:43he theoretically can then attack the goal direct himself.
07:47He could take a touch, he could skip past Caicedo here,
07:50he could run to the edge of the box where he loves to shoot from,
07:52and do that.
07:54And I mean, hey, if you look at this, that is exactly what that player would do, isn't it?
07:59Because he loves to make these runs and get these shots away from the edge of the box.
08:02So Caicedo knows he's going to do that because he's one-dimensional and he's predictable.
08:07So he gives himself a little yard to sit off,
08:10and what happens?
08:12Rodgers instead just rolls a perfectly weighted pass into Watkins for him to score instead.
08:19And just for every slick montage of him gliding past players,
08:24there should be another one of his range and creativity in terms of passing.
08:29He can rake long balls up the field for teammates who break ahead of him,
08:32he can find a through ball in behind a defence with near-perfect weight,
08:36and he's capable of playing one-touch stuff in really congested areas.
08:41All of which, again, absolutely invaluable for opening up the sort of low blocks
08:47Chelsea will be expecting to come up against across the course of this season.
08:51But all of that being said, my friends, we must quickly put our trousers back on for a second,
08:56because while he is capable of doing this, and he is capable of doing all of this,
09:00and very few players in world football can say the same thing,
09:04I don't currently think that enough of this stuff comes off consistently
09:10to put him in that real top tier of player bracket.
09:15It's certainly for him to be worth £117 million right now.
09:20Don't get me wrong, it's understandable at 23,
09:22but just too often at the minute, he will take someone on and lose the ball.
09:26He'll spot the perfect pass, but not execute it properly.
09:30And Chelsea's hope will be that a player of his current ability develops very quickly
09:35when you start putting him in a side with players of allegedly higher quality
09:41than the ones he's been playing with.
09:42And yes, I hear you there, you're right, Aston Villa did finish six places above Chelsea last season,
09:49so it's not even a guarantee at this stage that you are putting him with players of a substantially higher
09:56quality.
09:57So I do think this transfer, and just Rodgers as a player, represents a pretty big challenge for Alonso,
10:04just albeit one, as you can see, with absolutely enormous upsides, if you can pull it off.
10:12But if you will allow me to caveat my own caveats, right,
10:15what makes this a little bit less of a risk, in my opinion, is just his shooting.
10:23He offers you a threat from range that fewer and fewer players either have or choose to use now.
10:29So while he might need time to get his overall level up to where Chelsea needed to be,
10:35he is going to buy himself that time, if he continues, to just twat the thing in from 35 yards.
10:43Fans will be incredibly patient with you as a footballer if you're winning goal of the month every single month.
10:50And he's also got brilliant off-the-ball numbers last season, like his overall defensive contributions
10:54and getting the ball back in the final third.
10:56All that stuff is really great.
10:59And while obviously that is the thing that translates least well from one manager and one system to another,
11:06like off-the-ball stuff, his numbers do at least tell you that that is a player who is willing
11:10to,
11:11A, work really hard, and B, do as he's told.
11:15Like getting a player with really special talents on the ball but who also functions as a key part of
11:21your off-the-ball approach
11:23makes him an even rarer profile still.
11:26So do I think he is worth £117 million?
11:31No, I really, really don't.
11:34But I could see him getting to that stage quite quickly if things go well.
11:39And just as a very quick final point, I've seen a lot of people saying like,
11:42oh, this transfer, that's going to let Alonso do the 3-4-2-1 he was doing at Leverkusen instead
11:48of a 4-2-3-1.
11:49And honestly, I'm telling you now, it does not matter.
11:52It does not matter what formation Chelsea set up in because when they get the ball in the final third,
11:58which is where they're going to be expecting to spend most of the season,
12:00they're going to be in this shape anyway.
12:04And Rodgers, more often than not, not always because he is versatile,
12:08but more often than not, will be in this inside left channel here.
12:12Whether he's starting there because it's a 3-4-2-1 or coming across from there
12:16because a full-back is getting up the other side, doesn't matter.
12:19They'll have a million different one ways of getting into this shape.
12:23And that is where Rodgers will play.
12:25I don't think Chelsea's formation really matters next season.
12:29But the reason he'll be there, of course, is if we look at his heat map from all of last
12:32season,
12:33that screams versatility.
12:35He likes to get on the ball here and here and here and here and here,
12:38but he does the bulk of his best work, his favoured area of the pitch,
12:41where his instincts are strongest, is, as you can see, in this central bit here.
12:47So if you want to use him properly as a manager, yeah, he can go anywhere.
12:50He'll do a number of different things for you,
12:52but he'll be at his best where he is most comfortable.
12:56And that's there.
12:58So yes, there you go.
12:59That's why Morgan Rodgers is worth £117 million.
13:01Not because he is currently, but because the distance between where he is now
13:06and that sort of level feels quite short in the minds of both Chelsea and his new manager.
13:12And I agree, personally.
13:15But what do you think?
13:16You're a Chelsea fan, statistically speaking.
13:18Let us know down below if you're excited about this.
13:20What are you expecting from the new season?
13:22Are you dark horses?
13:24Is everyone a dark horse this season?
13:25I think maybe you might be.
13:28All thoughts, feelings, comments are welcome down below.
13:30And, of course, you can subscribe to ACFC by clicking the button wherever that is.
13:35And I am across all the social medias.
13:36At Adam Cleary.
13:37See, LELY.
13:38I've had a lot of messages.
13:39People being like, you've just finished the World Cup.
13:42Are you not having a holiday?
13:43I am starting right now.
13:45So you've got, I don't know, the next couple of videos.
13:48It'll all be Archie.
13:50Please give him all the love in the world because he's so good at this.
13:54He's so good at doing this.
13:55And I'm actually genuinely excited to hand him over the keys.
13:58I'm not secretly hoping it all crashes and burns.
14:01Be really nice to him.
14:02I'll send you some nice holiday updates.
14:05But he's going to do the next couple of transfer videos.
14:07Tell him what you want to see because there's been loads during the World Cup.
14:09And this is the first one we've picked up.
14:12But I'll be back before the Premier League season starts.
14:15That's my promise to you.
14:16That's a really long outro, this.
14:18I should have done it shorter.
14:18But, yeah.
14:19Bye.
14:22It's nice to do club football again.
14:23Love you all.
14:25Bye.
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